Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum

The aim of this work is to elucidate the impact of changes in solar irradiance and energetic particles versus volcanic eruptions on tropospheric global climate during the Dalton Minimum (DM, AD 1780–1840). Separate variations in the (i) solar irradiance in the UV-C with wavelengths λ < 250 nm, (ii) irradiance at wavelengths λ > 250 nm, (iii) in energetic particle spectrum, and (iv) volcanic aerosol forcing were analyzed separately, and (v) in combination, by means of small ensemble calculations using a coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate model. Global and hemispheric mean surface temperatures show a significant dependence on solar irradiance at λ > 250 nm. Also, powerful volcanic eruptions in 1809, 1815, 1831 and 1835 significantly decreased global mean temperature by up to 0.5 K for 2–3 years after the eruption. However, while the volcanic effect is clearly discernible in the Southern Hemispheric mean temperature, it is less significant in the Northern Hemisphere, partly because the two largest volcanic eruptions occurred in the SH tropics and during seasons when the aerosols were mainly transported southward, partly because of the higher northern internal variability. In the simulation including all forcings, temperatures are in reasonable agreement with the tree ring-based temperature anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere. Interestingly, the model suggests that solar irradiance changes at λ < 250 nm and in energetic particle spectra have only an insignificant impact on the climate during the Dalton Minimum. This downscales the importance of top–down processes (stemming from changes at λ < 250 nm) relative to bottom–up processes (from λ > 250 nm). Reduction of irradiance at λ > 250 nm leads to a significant (up to 2%) decrease in the ocean heat content (OHC) between 0 and 300 m in depth, whereas the changes in irradiance at λ < 250 nm or in energetic particles have virtually no effect. Also, volcanic aerosol yields a very strong response, reducing the OHC of the upper ocean by up to 1.5%. In the simulation with all forcings, the OHC of the uppermost levels recovers after 8–15 years after volcanic eruption, while the solar signal and the different volcanic eruptions dominate the OHC changes in the deeper ocean and prevent its recovery during the DM. Finally, the simulations suggest that the volcanic eruptions during the DM had a significant impact on the precipitation patterns caused by a widening of the Hadley cell and a shift in the intertropical convergence zone.

Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: a global sensitivity analysis

We estimate the effects of climatic changes, as predicted by six climate models, on lake surface temperatures on a global scale, using the lake surface equilibrium temperature as a proxy. We evaluate interactions between different forcing variables, the sensitivity of lake surface temperatures to these variables, as well as differences between climate zones. Lake surface equilibrium temperatures are predicted to increase by 70 to 85 % of the increase in air temperatures. On average, air temperature is the main driver for changes in lake surface temperatures, and its effect is reduced by ~10 % by changes in other meteorological variables. However, the contribution of these other variables to the variance is ~40 % of that of air temperature, and their effects can be important at specific locations. The warming increases the importance of longwave radiation and evaporation for the lake surface heat balance compared to shortwave radiation and convective heat fluxes. We discuss the consequences of our findings for the design and evaluation of different types of studies on climate change effects on lakes.

Stacking of discontinuous regional palaeoclimate records: Chironomid-based summer temperatures from the Alpine region

Since multi-site reconstructions are less affected by site-specific climatic effects and artefacts, regional palaeotemperature reconstructions based on a number of sites can provide more robust estimates of centennial- to millennial-scale temperature trends than individual, site-specific records. Furthermore, reconstructions based on multiple records are necessary for developing continuous climate records over time scales longer than covered by individual sequences. Here, we present a procedure for developing such reconstructions based on relatively short (centuries to millennia), discontinuously sampled records as are typically developed when using biotic proxies in lake sediments for temperature reconstruction. The approach includes an altitudinal correction of temperatures, an interpolation of individual records to equal time intervals, a stacking procedure for sections of the interval of interest that have the same records available, as well as a splicing procedure to link the individual stacked records into a continuous reconstruction. Variations in the final, stacked and spliced reconstruction are driven by variations in the individual records, whereas the absolute temperature values are determined by the stacked segment based on the largest number of records. With numerical simulations based on the NGRIP δ18O record, we demonstrate that the interpolation and stacking procedure provides an approximation of a smoothed palaeoclimate record if based on a sufficient number of discontinuously sampled records. Finally, we provide an example of a stacked and spliced palaeotemperature reconstruction 15000–90 calibrated 14C yr BP based on six chironomid records from the northern and central Swiss Alps and eastern France to discuss the potential and limitations of this approach.

Lake surface water temperatures of European Alpine lakes (1989–2013) based on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) 1 km data set

Lake water temperature (LWT) is an important driver of lake ecosystems and it has been identified as an indicator of climate change. Consequently, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) lists LWT as an essential climate variable. Although for some European lakes long in situ time series of LWT do exist, many lakes are not observed or only on a non-regular basis making these observations insufficient for climate monitoring. Satellite data can provide the information needed. However, only few satellite sensors offer the possibility to analyse time series which cover 25 years or more. The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) is among these and has been flown as a heritage instrument for almost 35 years. It will be carried on for at least ten more years, offering a unique opportunity for satellite-based climate studies. Herein we present a satellite-based lake surface water temperature (LSWT) data set for European water bodies in or near the Alps based on the extensive AVHRR 1 km data record (1989–2013) of the Remote Sensing Research Group at the University of Bern. It has been compiled out of AVHRR/2 (NOAA-07, -09, -11, -14) and AVHRR/3 (NOAA-16, -17, -18, -19 and MetOp-A) data. The high accuracy needed for climate related studies requires careful pre-processing and consideration of the atmospheric state. The LSWT retrieval is based on a simulation-based scheme making use of the Radiative Transfer for TOVS (RTTOV) Version 10 together with ERA-interim reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. The resulting LSWTs were extensively compared with in situ measurements from lakes with various sizes between 14 and 580 km2 and the resulting biases and RMSEs were found to be within the range of −0.5 to 0.6 K and 1.0 to 1.6 K, respectively. The upper limits of the reported errors could be rather attributed to uncertainties in the data comparison between in situ and satellite observations than inaccuracies of the satellite retrieval. An inter-comparison with the standard Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Surface Temperature product exhibits RMSEs and biases in the range of 0.6 to 0.9 and −0.5 to 0.2 K, respectively. The cross-platform consistency of the retrieval was found to be within ~ 0.3 K. For one lake, the satellite-derived trend was compared with the trend of in situ measurements and both were found to be similar. Thus, orbital drift is not causing artificial temperature trends in the data set. A comparison with LSWT derived through global sea surface temperature (SST) algorithms shows lower RMSEs and biases for the simulation-based approach. A running project will apply the developed method to retrieve LSWT for all of Europe to derive the climate signal of the last 30 years. The data are available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.831007.

Spring-summer temperatures reconstructed for northern Switzerland and southwestern Germany from winter rye harvest dates, 1454–1970

This paper presents a unique 517-yr long documentary data-based reconstruction of spring-summer (MAMJJ) temperatures for northern Switzerland and southwestern Germany from 1454 to 1970. It is composed of 25 partial series of winter grain (secale cereale) harvest starting dates (WGHD) that are partly based on harvest related bookkeeping of institutions (hospitals, municipalities), partly on (early) phenological observations. The resulting main Basel WGHD series was homogenised with regard to dating style, data type and altitude. The calibration and verification approach was applied using the homogenous HISTALP temperature series from 1774–1824 for calibration (r = 0.78) and from 1920–1970 for verification (r = 0.75). The latter result even suffers from the weak data base available for 1870– 1950. Temperature reconstructions based on WGHD are more influenced by spring temperatures than those based on grape harvest dates (GHD), because rye in contrast to vines already begins to grow as soon as sunlight brings the plant to above freezing. The earliest and latest harvest dates were checked for consistency with narrative documentary weather reports. Comparisons with other European documentarybased GHD and WGHD temperature reconstructions generally reveal significant correlations decreasing with the distance from Switzerland. The new Basel WGHD series shows better skills in representing highly climate change sensitive variations of Swiss Alpine glaciers than available GHD series.

Understanding measured water rotational temperatures and column densities in the very innermost coma of Comet 73P/Schwassmann–Wachmann 3 B

Direct sublimation of a comet nucleus surface is usually considered to be the main source of gas in the coma of a comet. However, evidence from a number of comets including the recent spectacular images of Comet 103P/Hartley 2 by the EPOXI mission indicates that the nucleus alone may not be responsible for all, or possibly at times even most, of the total amount of gas seen in the coma. Indeed, the sublimation of icy grains, which have been injected into the coma, appears to constitute an important source. We use the fully-kinetic Direct Simulation Monte Carlo model of Tenishev et al. (Tenishev, V.M., Combi, M.R., Davidsson, B. [2008]. Astrophys. J., 685, 659−677; Tenishev, V.M., Combi, M.R., Rubin, M. [2011]. Astrophys. J., 732) to reproduce the measurements of column density and rotational temperature of water in Comet 73P-B/Schwassmann–Wachmann 3 obtained with a very high spatial resolution of ∼30 km using IRCS/Subaru in May 2006 (Bonev, B.P., Mumma, M.J., Kawakita, H., Kobayashi, H., Villanueva, G.L. [2008]. Icarus, 196, 241−248). For gas released solely from the cometary nucleus at a heliocentric distance of 1 AU, modeled rotational temperatures start at 110 K close to the surface and decrease to only several tens of degrees by 10–20 nucleus radii. However, the measured decay of both rotational temperature and column density with distance from the nucleus is much slower than predicted by this simple model. The addition of a substantial (distributed) source of gas from icy grains in the model slows the decay in rotational temperature and provides a more gradual drop in column density profiles. Together with a contribution of rotational heating of water molecules by electrons, the combined effects allow a much better match to the IRCS/Subaru observations. From the spatial distributions of water abundance and temperature measured in 73P/SW3-B, we have identified and quantified multiple mechanisms of release. The application of this tool to other comets may permit such studies over a range of heliocentric and geocentric distances.

Cool Glacial Temperatures and Changes in Moisture Source Recorded in Oman Groundwaters

Concentrations of atmospheric noble gases (neon, argon, krypton, and xenon) dissolved in groundwaters from northern Oman indicate that the average ground temperature during the Late Pleistocene (15,000 to 24,000 years before present) was 6.5° ± 0.6°C lower than that of today. Stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic groundwater data show that the origin of atmospheric water vapor changed from a primarily southern, Indian Ocean source during the Late Pleistocene to a dominantly northern, Mediterranean source today. The reduced northern water vapor source is consistent with a drier Last Glacial Maximum through much of northern Africa and Arabia.

Younger Dryas and Allerød summer temperatures at Gerzensee (Switzerland) inferred from fossil pollen and cladoceran assemblages

Linear- and unimodal-based inference models for mean summer temperatures (partial least squares, weighted averaging, and weighted averaging partial least squares models) were applied to a high-resolution pollen and cladoceran stratigraphy from Gerzensee, Switzerland. The time-window of investigation included the Allerød, the Younger Dryas, and the Preboreal. Characteristic major and minor oscillations in the oxygen-isotope stratigraphy, such as the Gerzensee oscillation, the onset and end of the Younger Dryas stadial, and the Preboreal oscillation, were identified by isotope analysis of bulk-sediment carbonates of the same core and were used as independent indicators for hemispheric or global scale climatic change. In general, the pollen-inferred mean summer temperature reconstruction using all three inference models follows the oxygen-isotope curve more closely than the cladoceran curve. The cladoceran-inferred reconstruction suggests generally warmer summers than the pollen-based reconstructions, which may be an effect of terrestrial vegetation not being in equilibrium with climate due to migrational lags during the Late Glacial and early Holocene. Allerød summer temperatures range between 11 and 12°C based on pollen, whereas the cladoceran-inferred temperatures lie between 11 and 13°C. Pollen and cladocera-inferred reconstructions both suggest a drop to 9–10°C at the beginning of the Younger Dryas. Although the Allerød–Younger Dryas transition lasted 150–160 years in the oxygen-isotope stratigraphy, the pollen-inferred cooling took 180–190 years and the cladoceran-inferred cooling lasted 250–260 years. The pollen-inferred summer temperature rise to 11.5–12°C at the transition from the Younger Dryas to the Preboreal preceded the oxygen-isotope signal by several decades, whereas the cladoceran-inferred warming lagged. Major discrepancies between the pollen- and cladoceran-inference models are observed for the Preboreal, where the cladoceran-inference model suggests mean summer temperatures of up to 14–15°C. Both pollen- and cladoceran-inferred reconstructions suggest a cooling that may be related to the Gerzensee oscillation, but there is no evidence for a cooling synchronous with the Preboreal oscillation as recorded in the oxygen-isotope record. For the Gerzensee oscillation the inferred cooling was ca. 1 and 0.5°C based on pollen and cladocera, respectively, which lies well within the inherent prediction errors of the inference models.