Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Diet and mobility of an Iron Age population in Switzerland; Stable carbon, nitrogen and sulphur isotope analysis of the human remains from Münsingen

The 220 abundantly equipped burials from the Late Iron Age cemetery of Münsingen (420 – 240 BC) marked a milestone for Iron Age research. The evident horizontal spread throughout the time of occupancy laid the foundation for the chronology system of the Late Iron Age. Today the skulls of 77 individuals and some postcranial bones are still preserved. The aim was to obtain information about nutrition, social stratification and migration of the individuals from Münsingen. Stable isotope ratios of carbon, nitrogen and sulphur were analysed. The results of 63 individuals show that all consumed C3 plants as staple food with significant differences between males and females in δ13C and δ15N values. The results indicate a gender restriction in access to animal protein. Stable isotope values of one male buried with weapons and meat as grave goods suggest a diet with more animal proteins than the other individuals. It is possible that he was privileged due to high status. Furthermore, the δ34S values indicate minor mobility. Assuming that the subadults represent the local signal of δ34S it is very likely that adults with enriched δ34S could have migrated to Münsingen at some point during their lives. This study presents stable isotope values of one of the most important Late Iron Age burial sites in Central Europe. The presented data provide new insight into diet, migration and social stratification of the population from Münsingen.

Life-long growth of Quercus ilex L. at natural CO2 springs acclimates sulphur, nitrogen and carbohydrate metabolism of the progeny to elevated pCO2

The aim of the present study was to analyse whether offspring of mature Quercus ilex trees grown under life-long elevated pCO2 show alterations in the physiological response to elevated pCO2 in comparison with those originating from mature trees grown at current ambient pCO2. To investigate changes in C- (for changes in photosynthesis, biomass and lignin see Polle, McKee & Blaschke Plant, Cell and Environment 24, 1075–1083, 2001), N-, and S-metabolism soluble sugar, soluble non-proteinogenic nitrogen compounds (TSNN), nitrate reductase (NR), thiols, adenosine 5′-phosphosulphate (APS) reductase, and anions were analysed. For this purpose Q. ilex seedlings were grown from acorns of mother tree stands at a natural spring site (elevated pCO2) and a control site (ambient pCO2) of the Laiatico spring, Central Italy. Short-term elevated pCO2 exposure of the offspring of control oaks lead to higher sugar contents in stem tissues, to a reduced TSNN content in leaves, and basipetal stem tissues, to diminished thiol contents in all tissues analysed, and to reduced APS reductase activity in both, leaves and roots. Most of the components of C-, N- and S-metabolism including APS reductase activity which were reduced due to short-term elevated pCO2 exposure were recovered by life-long growth under elevated pCO2 in the offspring of spring oaks. Still TSNN contents in phloem exudates increased, nitrate contents in lateral roots and glutathione in leaves and phloem exudates remained reduced in these plants. The present results demonstrated that metabolic adaptations of Q. ilex mother trees to elevated pCO2 can be passed to the next generation. Short- and long-term effects on source-to-sink relation and physiological and genetic acclimation to elevated pCO2 are discussed.