Evaluation of control and surveillance strategies for classical swine fever using a simulation model

Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks can cause enormous losses in naïve pig populations. How to best minimize the economic damage and number of culled animals caused by CSF is therefore an important research area. The baseline CSF control strategy in the European Union and Switzerland consists of culling all animals in infected herds, movement restrictions for animals, material and people within a given distance to the infected herd and epidemiological tracing of transmission contacts. Additional disease control measures such as pre-emptive culling or vaccination have been recommended based on the results from several simulation models; however, these models were parameterized for areas with high animal densities. The objective of this study was to explore whether pre-emptive culling and emergency vaccination should also be recommended in low- to moderate-density areas such as Switzerland. Additionally, we studied the influence of initial outbreak conditions on outbreak severity to improve the efficiency of disease prevention and surveillance. A spatial, stochastic, individual-animal-based simulation model using all registered Swiss pig premises in 2009 (n=9770) was implemented to quantify these relationships. The model simulates within-herd and between-herd transmission (direct and indirect contacts and local area spread). By varying the four parameters (a) control measures, (b) index herd type (breeding, fattening, weaning or mixed herd), (c) detection delay for secondary cases during an outbreak and (d) contact tracing probability, 112 distinct scenarios were simulated. To assess the impact of scenarios on outbreak severity, daily transmission rates were compared between scenarios. Compared with the baseline strategy (stamping out and movement restrictions) vaccination and pre-emptive culling neither reduced outbreak size nor duration. Outbreaks starting in a herd with weaning piglets or fattening pigs caused higher losses regarding to the number of culled premises and were longer lasting than those starting in the two other index herd types. Similarly, larger transmission rates were estimated for these index herd type outbreaks. A longer detection delay resulted in more culled premises and longer duration and better transmission tracing increased the number of short outbreaks. Based on the simulation results, baseline control strategies seem sufficient to control CSF in low-medium animal-dense areas. Early detection of outbreaks is crucial and risk-based surveillance should be focused on weaning piglet and fattening pig premises.

Electrochemical simulation of phase I metabolism for 21 drugs using four different working electrodes in an automated screening setup with MS detection.

BACKGROUND Electrochemical conversion of xenobiotics has been shown to mimic human phase I metabolism for a few compounds. MATERIALS & METHODS Twenty-one compounds were analyzed with a semiautomated electrochemical setup and mass spectrometry detection. RESULTS The system was able to mimic some metabolic pathways, such as oxygen gain, dealkylation and deiodination, but many of the expected and known metabolites were not produced. CONCLUSION Electrochemical conversion is a useful approach for the preparative synthesis of some types of metabolites, but as a screening method for unknown phase I metabolites, the method is, in our opinion, inferior to incubation with human liver microsomes and in vivo experiments with laboratory animals, for example.

Electromyographic activity of back muscles during stochastic whole body vibration

OBJECTIVES: Stochastic resonance whole body vibrations (SR-WBV) may reduce and prevent musculoskeletal problems (MSP). The aim of this study was to evaluate how activities of the lumbar erector spinae (ES) and of the ascending and descending trapezius (TA, TD) change in upright standing position during SR-WBV. METHODS: Nineteen female subjects completed 12 series of 10 seconds of SR-WBV at six different frequencies (2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12Hz) and two types of "noise"-applications. An assessment at rest had been executed beforehand. Muscle activities were measured with EMG and normalized to the maximum voluntary contraction (MVC%). For statistical testing a three-factorial analysis of variation (ANOVA) was applied. RESULTS: The maximum activity of the respective muscles was 14.5 MVC% for the ES, 4.6 MVC% for the TA (12Hz with "noise" both), and 7.4 MVC% for the TD (10Hz without "noise"). Furthermore, all muscles varied significantly at 6Hz and above (p⋜0.047) compared to the situation at rest. No significant differences were found at SR-WBV with or without "noise". CONCLUSIONS: In general, muscle activity during SR-WBV is reasonably low and comparable to core strength stability exercises, sensorimotor training and "abdominal hollowing" in water. SR-WBV may be a therapeutic option for the relief of MSP.

Comparing three CPR feedback devices and standard BLS in a single rescuer scenario: a randomised simulation study

BACKGROUND Efficiently performed basic life support (BLS) after cardiac arrest is proven to be effective. However, cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is strenuous and rescuers' performance declines rapidly over time. Audio-visual feedback devices reporting CPR quality may prevent this decline. We aimed to investigate the effect of various CPR feedback devices on CPR quality. METHODS In this open, prospective, randomised, controlled trial we compared three CPR feedback devices (PocketCPR, CPRmeter, iPhone app PocketCPR) with standard BLS without feedback in a simulated scenario. 240 trained medical students performed single rescuer BLS on a manikin for 8min. Effective compression (compressions with correct depth, pressure point and sufficient decompression) as well as compression rate, flow time fraction and ventilation parameters were compared between the four groups. RESULTS Study participants using the PocketCPR performed 17±19% effective compressions compared to 32±28% with CPRmeter, 25±27% with the iPhone app PocketCPR, and 35±30% applying standard BLS (PocketCPR vs. CPRmeter p=0.007, PocketCPR vs. standard BLS p=0.001, others: ns). PocketCPR and CPRmeter prevented a decline in effective compression over time, but overall performance in the PocketCPR group was considerably inferior to standard BLS. Compression depth and rate were within the range recommended in the guidelines in all groups. CONCLUSION While we found differences between the investigated CPR feedback devices, overall BLS quality was suboptimal in all groups. Surprisingly, effective compression was not improved by any CPR feedback device compared to standard BLS. All feedback devices caused substantial delay in starting CPR, which may worsen outcome.

Extratropical fronts in the lower troposphere-global perspectives obtained from two automated methods

In this study two commonly used automated methods to detect atmospheric fronts in the lower troposphere are compared in various synoptic situations. The first method is a thermal approach, relying on the gradient of equivalent potential temperature (TH), while the second method is based on temporal changes in the 10 m wind (WND). For a comprehensive objective comparison of the outputs of these methods of frontal identification, both schemes are firstly applied to an idealised strong baroclinic wave simulation in the absence of topography. Then, two case-studies (one in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and one in the Southern Hemisphere (SH)) were conducted to contrast fronts detected by the methods. Finally, we obtain global winter and summer frontal occurrence climatologies (derived from ERA-Interim for 1979–2012) and compare the structure of these. TH is able to identify cold and warm fronts in strong baroclinic cases that are in good agreement with manual analyses. WND is particularly suited for the detection of strongly elongated, meridionally oriented moving fronts, but has very limited ability to identify zonally oriented warm fronts. We note that the areas of the main TH frontal activity are shifted equatorwards compared to the WND patterns and are located upstream of regions of main WND front activity. The number of WND fronts in the NH shows more interseasonal variations than TH fronts, decreasing by more than 50% from winter to summer. In the SH there is a weaker seasonal variation of the number of observed WND fronts, however TH front activity reduces from summer (DJF) to winter (JJA). The main motivation is to give an overview of the performance of these methods, such that researchers can choose the appropriate one for their particular interest.

Space debris attitude simulation - ιOTA (In-Orbit Tumbling Analysis)

Today, there is little knowledge on the attitude state of decommissioned intact objects in Earth orbit. Observational means have advanced in the past years, but are still limited with respect to an accurate estimate of motion vector orientations and magnitude. Especially for the preparation of Active Debris Removal (ADR) missions as planned by ESA’s Clean Space initiative or contingency scenarios for ESA spacecraft like ENVISAT, such knowledge is needed. ESA's “Debris Attitude Motion Measurements and Modelling” project (ESA Contract No. 40000112447), led by the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB), addresses this problem. The goal of the project is to achieve a good understanding of the attitude evolution and the considerable internal and external effects which occur. To characterize the attitude state of selected targets in LEO and GTO, multiple observation methods are combined. Optical observations are carried out by AIUB, Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) is performed by the Space Research Institute of the Austrian Academy of Sciences (IWF) and radar measurements and signal level determination are provided by the Fraunhofer Institute for High Frequency Physics and Radar Techniques (FHR). The In-Orbit Tumbling Analysis tool (ιOTA) is a prototype software, currently in development by Hyperschall Technologie Göttingen GmbH (HTG) within the framework of the project. ιOTA will be a highly modular software tool to perform short-(days), medium-(months) and long-term (years) propagation of the orbit and attitude motion (six degrees-of-freedom) of spacecraft in Earth orbit. The simulation takes into account all relevant acting forces and torques, including aerodynamic drag, solar radiation pressure, gravitational influences of Earth, Sun and Moon, eddy current damping, impulse and momentum transfer from space debris or micro meteoroid impact, as well as the optional definition of particular spacecraft specific influences like tank sloshing, reaction wheel behaviour, magnetic torquer activity and thruster firing. The purpose of ιOTA is to provide high accuracy short-term simulations to support observers and potential ADR missions, as well as medium-and long-term simulations to study the significance of the particular internal and external influences on the attitude, especially damping factors and momentum transfer. The simulation will also enable the investigation of the altitude dependency of the particular external influences. ιOTA's post-processing modules will generate synthetic measurements for observers and for software validation. The validation of the software will be done by cross-calibration with observations and measurements acquired by the project partners.

Zonal playfield attributes – A stochastic approach to subjective passing affordances in football

Introduction: According to the ecological view, coordination establishes byvirtueof social context. Affordances thought of as situational opportunities to interact are assumed to represent the guiding principles underlying decisions involved in interpersonal coordination. It’s generally agreed that affordances are not an objective part of the (social) environment but that they depend on the constructive perception of involved subjects. Theory and empirical data hold that cognitive operations enabling domain-specific efficacy beliefs are involved in the perception of affordances. The aim of the present study was to test the effects of these cognitive concepts in the subjective construction of local affordances and their influence on decision making in football. Methods: 71 football players (M = 24.3 years, SD = 3.3, 21 % women) from different divisions participated in the study. Participants were presented scenarios of offensive game situations. They were asked to take the perspective of the person on the ball and to indicate where they would pass the ball from within each situation. The participants stated their decisions in two conditions with different game score (1:0 vs. 0:1). The playing fields of all scenarios were then divided into ten zones. For each zone, participants were asked to rate their confidence in being able to pass the ball there (self-efficacy), the likelihood of the group staying in ball possession if the ball were passed into the zone (group-efficacy I), the likelihood of the ball being covered safely by a team member (pass control / group-efficacy II), and whether a pass would establish a better initial position to attack the opponents’ goal (offensive convenience). Answers were reported on visual analog scales ranging from 1 to 10. Data were analyzed specifying general linear models for binomially distributed data (Mplus). Maximum likelihood with non-normality robust standard errors was chosen to estimate parameters. Results: Analyses showed that zone- and domain-specific efficacy beliefs significantly affected passing decisions. Because of collinearity with self-efficacy and group-efficacy I, group-efficacy II was excluded from the models to ease interpretation of the results. Generally, zones with high values in the subjective ratings had a higher probability to be chosen as passing destination (βself-efficacy = 0.133, p < .001, OR = 1.142; βgroup-efficacy I = 0.128, p < .001, OR = 1.137; βoffensive convenience = 0.057, p < .01, OR = 1.059). There were, however, characteristic differences in the two score conditions. While group-efficacy I was the only significant predictor in condition 1 (βgroup-efficacy I = 0.379, p < .001), only self-efficacy and offensive convenience contributed to passing decisions in condition 2 (βself-efficacy = 0.135, p < .01; βoffensive convenience = 0.120, p < .001). Discussion: The results indicate that subjectively distinct attributes projected to playfield zones affect passing decisions. The study proposes a probabilistic alternative to Lewin’s (1951) hodological and deterministic field theory and enables insight into how dimensions of the psychological landscape afford passing behavior. Being part of a team, this psychological landscape is not only constituted by probabilities that refer to the potential and consequences of individual behavior, but also to that of the group system of which individuals are part of. Hence, in regulating action decisions in group settings, informers are extended to aspects referring to the group-level. References: Lewin, K. (1951). In D. Cartwright (Ed.), Field theory in social sciences: Selected theoretical papers by Kurt Lewin. New York: Harper & Brothers.

Development of a Novel Rabies Simulation Model for Application in a Non-endemic Environment.

Domestic dog rabies is an endemic disease in large parts of the developing world and also epidemic in previously free regions. For example, it continues to spread in eastern Indonesia and currently threatens adjacent rabies-free regions with high densities of free-roaming dogs, including remote northern Australia. Mathematical and simulation disease models are useful tools to provide insights on the most effective control strategies and to inform policy decisions. Existing rabies models typically focus on long-term control programs in endemic countries. However, simulation models describing the dog rabies incursion scenario in regions where rabies is still exotic are lacking. We here describe such a stochastic, spatially explicit rabies simulation model that is based on individual dog information collected in two remote regions in northern Australia. Illustrative simulations produced plausible results with epidemic characteristics expected for rabies outbreaks in disease free regions (mean R0 1.7, epidemic peak 97 days post-incursion, vaccination as the most effective response strategy). Systematic sensitivity analysis identified that model outcomes were most sensitive to seven of the 30 model parameters tested. This model is suitable for exploring rabies spread and control before an incursion in populations of largely free-roaming dogs that live close together with their owners. It can be used for ad-hoc contingency or response planning prior to and shortly after incursion of dog rabies in previously free regions. One challenge that remains is model parameterisation, particularly how dogs' roaming and contacts and biting behaviours change following a rabies incursion in a previously rabies free population.

Short structured feedback training is equivalent to a mechanical feedback device in two-rescuer BLS: a randomised simulation study.

BACKGROUND Resuscitation guidelines encourage the use of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) feedback devices implying better outcomes after sudden cardiac arrest. Whether effective continuous feedback could also be given verbally by a second rescuer ("human feedback") has not been investigated yet. We, therefore, compared the effect of human feedback to a CPR feedback device. METHODS In an open, prospective, randomised, controlled trial, we compared CPR performance of three groups of medical students in a two-rescuer scenario. Group "sCPR" was taught standard BLS without continuous feedback, serving as control. Group "mfCPR" was taught BLS with mechanical audio-visual feedback (HeartStart MRx with Q-CPR-Technology™). Group "hfCPR" was taught standard BLS with human feedback. Afterwards, 326 medical students performed two-rescuer BLS on a manikin for 8 min. CPR quality parameters, such as "effective compression ratio" (ECR: compressions with correct hand position, depth and complete decompression multiplied by flow-time fraction), and other compression, ventilation and time-related parameters were assessed for all groups. RESULTS ECR was comparable between the hfCPR and the mfCPR group (0.33 vs. 0.35, p = 0.435). The hfCPR group needed less time until starting chest compressions (2 vs. 8 s, p < 0.001) and showed fewer incorrect decompressions (26 vs. 33 %, p = 0.044). On the other hand, absolute hands-off time was higher in the hfCPR group (67 vs. 60 s, p = 0.021). CONCLUSIONS The quality of CPR with human feedback or by using a mechanical audio-visual feedback device was similar. Further studies should investigate whether extended human feedback training could further increase CPR quality at comparable costs for training.