35 resultados para Spatial Durbin model


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Simulating surface wind over complex terrain is a challenge in regional climate modelling. Therefore, this study aims at identifying a set-up of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model that minimises system- atic errors of surface winds in hindcast simulations. Major factors of the model configuration are tested to find a suitable set-up: the horizontal resolution, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation scheme and the way the WRF is nested to the driving data set. Hence, a number of sensitivity simulations at a spatial resolution of 2 km are carried out and compared to observations. Given the importance of wind storms, the analysis is based on case studies of 24 historical wind storms that caused great economic damage in Switzerland. Each of these events is downscaled using eight different model set-ups, but sharing the same driving data set. The results show that the lack of representation of the unresolved topography leads to a general overestimation of wind speed in WRF. However, this bias can be substantially reduced by using a PBL scheme that explicitly considers the effects of non-resolved topography, which also improves the spatial structure of wind speed over Switzerland. The wind direction, although generally well reproduced, is not very sensitive to the PBL scheme. Further sensitivity tests include four types of nesting methods: nesting only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, analysis nudging, spectral nudging, and the so-called re-forecast method, where the simulation is frequently restarted. These simulations show that restricting the freedom of the model to develop large-scale disturbances slightly increases the temporal agreement with the observations, at the same time that it further reduces the overestimation of wind speed, especially for maximum wind peaks. The model performance is also evaluated in the outermost domains, where the resolution is coarser. The results demonstrate the important role of horizontal resolution, where the step from 6 to 2 km significantly improves model performance. In summary, the combination of a grid size of 2 km, the non-local PBL scheme modified to explicitly account for non-resolved orography, as well as analysis or spectral nudging, is a superior combination when dynamical downscaling is aimed at reproducing real wind fields.

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We investigate the transition from unitary to dissipative dynamics in the relativistic O(N) vector model with the λ(φ2)2 interaction using the nonperturbative functional renormalization group in the real-time formalism. In thermal equilibrium, the theory is characterized by two scales, the interaction range for coherent scattering of particles and the mean free path determined by the rate of incoherent collisions with excitations in the thermal medium. Their competition determines the renormalization group flow and the effective dynamics of the model. Here we quantify the dynamic properties of the model in terms of the scale-dependent dynamic critical exponent z in the limit of large temperatures and in 2≤d≤4 spatial dimensions. We contrast our results to the behavior expected at vanishing temperature and address the question of the appropriate dynamic universality class for the given microscopic theory.

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Hair cycle disturbances are common in dogs and comparable to some alopecic disorders in humans. A normal hair cycle is maintained by follicular stem cells which are predominately found in an area known as the bulge. Due to similar morphological characteristics of the bulge area in humans and dogs, the shared particularity of compound hair follicles as well as similarities in follicular biomarker expression, the dog is a promising model to study human hair cycle and stem cell disorders. To gain insight into the spatial distribution of follicular keratinocytes with stem cell potential in canine compound follicles, we microdissected hair follicles in anagen and telogen from skin samples of freshly euthanized dogs. The keratinocytes isolated from different locations were investigated for their colony forming efficiency, growth and differentiation potential as well as clonal growth. Our results indicate that i) compound and single hair follicles exhibit a comparable spatial distribution pattern with respect to cells with high growth potential and stem cell-like characteristics, ii) the lower isthmus (comprising the bulge) harbors most cells with high growth potential in both, the anagen and the telogen hair cycle stage, iii) unlike in other species, colonies with highest growth potential are rather small with an irregular perimeter and iv) the keratinocytes derived from the bulbar region exhibit characteristics of actively dividing transit amplifying cells. Our results now provide the basis to conduct comparative studies of normal dogs and those with hair cycle disorders with the possibility to extend relevant findings to human patients.

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Patterns of size inequality in crowded plant populations are often taken to be indicative of the degree of size asymmetry of competition, but recent research suggests that some of the patterns attributed to size‐asymmetric competition could be due to spatial structure. To investigate the theoretical relationships between plant density, spatial pattern, and competitive size asymmetry in determining size variation in crowded plant populations, we developed a spatially explicit, individual‐based plant competition model based on overlapping zones of influence. The zone of influence of each plant is modeled as a circle, growing in two dimensions, and is allometrically related to plant biomass. The area of the circle represents resources potentially available to the plant, and plants compete for resources in areas in which they overlap. The size asymmetry of competition is reflected in the rules for dividing up the overlapping areas. Theoretical plant populations were grown in random and in perfectly uniform spatial patterns at four densities under size‐asymmetric and size‐symmetric competition. Both spatial pattern and size asymmetry contributed to size variation, but their relative importance varied greatly over density and over time. Early in stand development, spatial pattern was more important than the symmetry of competition in determining the degree of size variation within the population, but after plants grew and competition intensified, the size asymmetry of competition became a much more important source of size variation. Size variability was slightly higher at higher densities when competition was symmetric and plants were distributed nonuniformly in space. In a uniform spatial pattern, size variation increased with density only when competition was size asymmetric. Our results suggest that when competition is size asymmetric and intense, it will be more important in generating size variation than is local variation in density. Our results and the available data are consistent with the hypothesis that high levels of size inequality commonly observed within crowded plant populations are largely due to size‐asymmetric competition, not to variation in local density.

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Cerebral malaria (CM) is associated with high mortality and morbidity as a certain percentage of survivors suffers from persistent neurological sequelae. The mechanisms leading to death and functional impairments are yet not fully understood. This study investigated biochemical and morphological markers of apoptosis in the brains of mice infected with Plasmodium berghei ANKA. Cleaved caspase-3 was detected in the brains of animals with clinical signs of CM and immunoreactivity directly correlated with the clinical severity of the disease. Caudal parts of the brain showed more intense immunoreactivity for cleaved caspase-3. Double-labelling experiments revealed processing of caspase-3 primarily in neurons and oligodendrocytes. These cells also exhibited apoptotic-like morphological profiles in ultrastructural analysis. Further, cleavage of caspase-3 was found in endothelial cells. In contrast to neurons and oligodendrocytes, apoptosis of endothelial cells already occurred in early stages of the disease. Our results are the first to demonstrate processing of caspase-3 in different central nervous system cells of animals with CM. Apoptosis of endothelial cells may represent a critical issue for the development of the disease in the mouse model. Neurological signs and symptoms might be attributable, at least in part, to apoptotic degeneration of neurons and glia in advanced stages of murine CM.