Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound

We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007–09 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. We identify a “pure” spread shock defined as a shock that leaves the policy rate unchanged, which allows us to characterize the macroeconomic consequences of a decline in the yield spread induced by central banks’ asset purchases within an environment in which the policy rate is constrained by the effective zero lower bound. Two key findings stand out. First, compressions in the long-term yield spread exert a powerful effect on both output growth and inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the Federal Reserve’s and the Bank of England’s asset purchase programs on long-term yield spreads, our counterfactual simulations suggest that U.S. and U.K. unconventional monetary policy actions have averted significant risks both of deflation and of output collapses comparable to those that took place during the Great Depression.

ANOVA kernels and RKHS of zero mean functions for model-based sensitivity analysis

Given a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (H,〈.,.〉)(H,〈.,.〉) of real-valued functions and a suitable measure μμ over the source space D⊂RD⊂R, we decompose HH as the sum of a subspace of centered functions for μμ and its orthogonal in HH. This decomposition leads to a special case of ANOVA kernels, for which the functional ANOVA representation of the best predictor can be elegantly derived, either in an interpolation or regularization framework. The proposed kernels appear to be particularly convenient for analyzing the effect of each (group of) variable(s) and computing sensitivity indices without recursivity.

Clinical outcomes after zotarolimus and everolimus drug eluting stent implantation in coronary artery bifurcation lesions: insights from the RESOLUTE All Comers Trial

OBJECTIVE We investigated clinical outcomes after treatment of coronary bifurcation lesions with second generation drug eluting stents (DES). DESIGN Post hoc analysis of a randomised, multicentre, non-inferiority trial. SETTING Multicentre study. PATIENTS All comers study with minimal exclusion criteria. INTERVENTIONS Patients were treated with either zotarolimus or everolimus eluting stents. The patient population was divided according to treatment of bifurcation or non-bifurcation lesions and clinical outcomes were compared between groups. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES Clinical outcomes within 2-year follow-up. RESULTS A total of 2265 patients were included in the present analysis. Two-year follow-up data were available in 2223 patients: 1838 patients in the non-bifurcation group and 385 patients in the bifurcation group. At 2-year follow-up the bifurcation and the non-bifurcation lesion groups showed no significant differences in terms of cardiac death (2.3 vs 2.1, p=0.273), target lesion failure (9.7% vs 13.8%, p=0.255), major adverse cardiac events (11.5% vs 15.1%, p=0.305), target lesion revascularisation (4.7% vs 6.0%, p=0.569), and definite or probable stent thrombosis (1.6% vs 1.8%, p=0.419). CONCLUSIONS The use of second generation DES for the treatment of coronary bifurcation lesions was associated with similar long term mortality and clinical outcomes compared with non-bifurcation lesions.

NLO thermal dilepton rate at non-zero momentum

The vector channel spectral function and the dilepton production rate from a QCD plasma at a temperature above a few hundred MeV are evaluated up to next-to-leading order (NLO) including their dependence on a non-zero momentum with respect to the heat bath. The invariant mass of the virtual photon is taken to be in the range K2 ~ (πT)2 ~ (1GeV)2, generalizing previous NLO results valid for K2 ≫ (πT)2. In the opposite regime 0 < K2 ≪ (πT)2 the loop expansion breaks down, but agrees nevertheless in order of magnitude with a previous result obtained through resummations. Ways to test the vector spectral function through comparisons with imaginary-time correlators measured on the lattice are discussed.

A papain-induced disc degeneration model for the assessment of thermo-reversible hydrogel-cells therapeutic approach

Nucleus pulposus (NP) regeneration by the application of injectable cell-embedded hydrogels is an appealing approach for tissue engineering. We investigated a thermo-reversible hydrogel (TR-HG), based on a modified polysaccharide with a thermo-reversible polyamide [poly(N-isopropylacrylamide), pNIPAM], which is made to behave as a liquid at room temperature and hardens at > 32 °C. In order to test the hydrogel, a papain-induced bovine caudal disc degeneration model (PDDM), creating a cavity in the NP, was employed. Human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs) or autologous bovine NP cells (bNPCs) were seeded in TR-HG; hMSCs were additionally preconditioned with rhGDF-5 for 7 days. Then, TR-HG was reversed to a fluid and the cell suspension injected into the PDDM and kept under static loading for 7 days. Experimental design was: (D1) fresh disc control + PBS injection; (D2) PDDM + PBS injection; (D3) PDDM + TR-HG (material control); (D4) PDDM + TR-HG + bNPCs; (D5) PDDM + TR-HG + hMSCs. Magnetic resonance imaging performed before and after loading, on days 9 and 16, allowed imaging of the hydrogel-filled PDDM and assessment of disc height and volume changes. In gel-injected discs the NP region showed a major drop in volume and disc height during culture under static load. The RT–PCR results of injected hMSCs showed significant upregulation of ACAN, COL2A1, VCAN and SOX9 during culture in the disc cavity, whereas the gene expression profile of NP cells remained unchanged. The cell viability of injected cells (NPCs or hMSCs) was maintained at over 86% in 3D culture and dropped to ~72% after organ culture. Our results underline the need for load-bearing hydrogels that are also cyto-compatible.

Reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndrome and cervical artery dissection in 20 patients

OBJECTIVES To describe clinical-radiologic characteristics in a prospective series of patients having both confirmed reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndrome (RCVS) and cervical artery dissection (CeAD). METHODS From January 2004 to December 2011, from our prospective cohorts of RCVS and CeAD, we studied patients with both conditions. RESULTS Of 173 RCVS cases and 285 CeAD cases, 20 patients (18 women, 2 men; mean age 41 years) had both RCVS and CeAD. Main associated conditions were migraine (12/20) and postpartum (5/18). Clinical features included severe headache in all patients, neck pain in 15, focal neurologic deficit in 9, and seizures in 4. Pain was the only symptom in 10 patients. All patients had multifocal cerebral vasoconstriction. There were brain lesions in 12 patients, cortical subarachnoid hemorrhage in 11, posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome in 4, intracerebral hemorrhage in 3, and infarcts in 4. CeAD involved one artery in 13 patients and multiple arteries in 7. CeAD mostly affected vertebral arteries (25 of 30 CeAD). Only one vertebral CeAD was associated with a related symptomatic infarct. At 3 months, 18 patients had fully recovered, all patients showed reversal of cerebral vasoconstriction, and 21 dissected arteries had normalized, whereas 9 arteries showed residual stenosis (7) and/or aneurysm (3). CONCLUSION The association of RCVS and CeAD was found in 12% of our patients with RCVS and 7% of our patients with CeAD. Underlying mechanisms are unknown. In practice, our results point to the need for a systematic study of both cervical and intracranial arteries in the 2 conditions.

Three-year outcomes of percutaneous coronary intervention with next-generation zotarolimus-eluting stents for de novo coronary bifurcation lesions.

AIMS To investigate the outcomes of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in bifurcation versus non-bifurcation lesions using the next-generation Resolute zotarolimus-eluting stent (R-ZES). METHODS AND RESULTS We analyzed 3-year pooled data from the RESOLUTE All-Comers trial and the RESOLUTE International registry. The R-ZES was used in 2772 non-bifurcation lesion patients and 703 bifurcation lesion patients, of which 482 were treated with a simple-stent technique (1 stent used to treat the bifurcation lesion) and 221 with a complex bifurcation technique (2 or more stents used). The primary endpoint was 3-year target lesion failure (TLF, defined as the composite of death from cardiac causes, target vessel myocardial infarction, or clinically-indicated target lesion revascularization [TLR]), and was 13.3% in bifurcation vs 11.3% in non-bifurcation lesion patients (adjusted P=.06). Landmark analysis revealed that this difference was driven by differences in the first 30 days between bifurcation vs non-bifurcation lesions (TLF, 6.6% vs 2.7%, respectively; adjusted P<.001), which included significant differences in each component of TLF and in-stent thrombosis. Between 31 days and 3 years, TLF, its components, and stent thrombosis did not differ significantly between bifurcation lesions and non-bifurcation lesions (TLF, 7.7% vs 9.0%, respectively; adjusted P=.50). CONCLUSION The 3-year risk of TLF following PCI with R-ZES in bifurcation lesions was not significantly different from non-bifurcation lesions. However, there was an increased risk associated with bifurcation lesions during the first 30 days; beyond 30 days, bifurcation lesions and non-bifurcation lesions yielded similar 3-year outcomes.

Computed tomography findings in liver fibrosis and cirrhosis

Abstract PRINCIPLES: Computed tomography (CT) is inferior to the fibroscan and laboratory testing in the noninvasive diagnosis of liver fibrosis. On the other hand, CT is a frequently used diagnostic tool in modern medicine. The auxiliary finding of clinically occult liver fibrosis in CT scans could result in an earlier diagnosis. The aim of this study was to analyse quantifiable direct signs of liver remodelling in CT scans to depict liver fibrosis in a precirrhotic stage. METHODS: Retrospective review of 148 abdominal CT scans (80 liver cirrhosis, 35 precirrhotic fibrosis and 33 control patients). Fibrosis and cirrhosis were histologically proven. The diameters of the three main hepatic veins were measured 1-2 cm before their aperture into the inferior caval vein. The width of the caudate and the right hepatic lobe were divided, and measured horizontally at the level of the first bifurcation of the right portal vein in axial planes (caudate-right-lobe ratio). A combination of both (sum of liver vein diameters divided by the caudate-right lobe ratio) was defined as the ld/crl ratio. These metrics were analysed for the detection of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. RESULTS: An ld/crl-r <24 showed a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 76% for precirrhotic liver fibrosis. Liver cirrhosis could be detected with a sensitivity of 88% and a specificity of 82% if ld/crl-r <20. CONCLUSION: An ld/crl-r <24 justifies laboratory testing and a fibroscan. This could bring forward the diagnosis and patients would profit from early treatment in a potentially reversible stage of disease.

Comparison of energy expenditure, eating pattern and physical activity of grazing and zero-grazing dairy cows at different time points during lactation

An experiment was conducted to determine the effect of grazing versus zero-grazing on energy expenditure (EE), feeding behaviour and physical activity in dairy cows at different stages of lactation. Fourteen Holstein cows were subjected to two treatments in a repeated crossover design with three experimental series (S1, S2, and S3) reflecting increased days in milk (DIM). At the beginning of each series, cows were on average at 38, 94 and 171 (standard deviation (SD) 10.8) DIM, respectively. Each series consisted of two periods containing a 7-d adaptation and a 7-d collection period each. Cows either grazed on pasture for 16–18.5 h per day or were kept in a freestall barn and had ad libitum access to herbage harvested from the same paddock. Herbage intake was estimated using the double alkane technique. On each day of the collection period, EE of one cow in the barn and of one cow on pasture was determined for 6 h by using the 13C bicarbonate dilution technique, with blood sample collection done either manually in the barn or using an automatic sampling system on pasture. Furthermore, during each collection period physical activity and feeding behaviour of cows were recorded over 3 d using pedometers and behaviour recorders. Milk yield decreased with increasing DIM (P<0.001) but was similar with both treatments. Herbage intake was lower (P<0.01) for grazing cows (16.8 kg dry matter (DM)/d) compared to zero-grazing cows (18.9 kg DM/d). The lowest (P<0.001) intake was observed in S1 and similar intakes were observed in S2 and S3. Within the 6-h measurement period, grazing cows expended 19% more (P<0.001) energy (319 versus 269 kJ/kg metabolic body size (BW0.75)) than zero-grazing cows and differences in EE did not change with increasing DIM. Grazing cows spent proportionally more (P<0.001) time walking and less time standing (P<0.001) and lying (P<0.05) than zero-grazing cows. The proportion of time spent eating was greater (P<0.001) and that of time spent ruminating was lower (P<0.05) for grazing cows compared to zero-grazing cows. In conclusion, lower feed intake along with the unchanged milk production indicates that grazing cows mobilized body reserves to cover additional energy requirements which were at least partly caused by more physical activity. However, changes in cows׳ behaviour between the considered time points during lactation were too small so that differences in EE remained similar between treatments with increasing DIM.