Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

Ocean acidification from the uptake of anthropogenic carbon is simulated for the industrial period and IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2 and B1 with a global coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Earlier studies identified seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite, a mineral phase of calcium carbonate, as a key variable governing impacts on corals and other shell-forming organisms. Globally in the A2 scenario, water saturated by more than 300%, considered suitable for coral growth, vanishes by 2070 AD (CO2≈630 ppm), and the ocean volume fraction occupied by saturated water decreases from 42% to 25% over this century. The largest simulated pH changes worldwide occur in Arctic surface waters, where hydrogen ion concentration increases by up to 185% (ΔpH=−0.45). Projected climate change amplifies the decrease in Arctic surface mean saturation and pH by more than 20%, mainly due to freshening and increased carbon uptake in response to sea ice retreat. Modeled saturation compares well with observation-based estimates along an Arctic transect and simulated changes have been corrected for remaining model-data differences in this region. Aragonite undersaturation in Arctic surface waters is projected to occur locally within a decade and to become more widespread as atmospheric CO2 continues to grow. The results imply that surface waters in the Arctic Ocean will become corrosive to aragonite, with potentially large implications for the marine ecosystem, if anthropogenic carbon emissions are not reduced and atmospheric CO2 not kept below 450 ppm.

Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum

The response of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics to volcanic eruptions and to a decrease in solar activity during the Dalton Minimum is investigated with the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry general circulation model SOCOL-MPIOM (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) covering the time period 1780 to 1840 AD. We carried out several sensitivity ensemble experiments to separate the effects of (i) reduced solar ultra-violet (UV) irradiance, (ii) reduced solar visible and near infrared irradiance, (iii) enhanced galactic cosmic ray intensity as well as less intensive solar energetic proton events and auroral electron precipitation, and (iv) volcanic aerosols. The introduced changes of UV irradiance and volcanic aerosols significantly influence stratospheric dynamics in the early 19th century, whereas changes in the visible part of the spectrum and energetic particles have smaller effects. A reduction of UV irradiance by 15%, which represents the presently discussed highest estimate of UV irradiance change caused by solar activity changes, causes global ozone decrease below the stratopause reaching as much as 8% in the midlatitudes at 5 hPa and a significant stratospheric cooling of up to 2 °C in the mid-stratosphere and to 6 °C in the lower mesosphere. Changes in energetic particle precipitation lead only to minor changes in the yearly averaged temperature fields in the stratosphere. Volcanic aerosols heat the tropical lower stratosphere, allowing more water vapour to enter the tropical stratosphere, which, via HOx reactions, decreases upper stratospheric and mesospheric ozone by roughly 4%. Conversely, heterogeneous chemistry on aerosols reduces stratospheric NOx, leading to a 12% ozone increase in the tropics, whereas a decrease in ozone of up to 5% is found over Antarctica in boreal winter. The linear superposition of the different contributions is not equivalent to the response obtained in a simulation when all forcing factors are applied during the Dalton Minimum (DM) – this effect is especially well visible for NOx/NOy. Thus, this study also shows the non-linear behaviour of the coupled chemistry-climate system. Finally, we conclude that especially UV and volcanic eruptions dominate the changes in the ozone, temperature and dynamics while the NOx field is dominated by the energetic particle precipitation. Visible radiation changes have only very minor effects on both stratospheric dynamics and chemistry.

Reanalysis-driven climate simulation over CORDEX North America domain using the Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5: model performance evaluation

The performance of reanalysis-driven Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5 (CRCM5) in reproducing the present climate over the North American COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment domain for the 1989–2008 period has been assessed in comparison with several observation-based datasets. The model reproduces satisfactorily the near-surface temperature and precipitation characteristics over most part of North America. Coastal and mountainous zones remain problematic: a cold bias (2–6 °C) prevails over Rocky Mountains in summertime and all year-round over Mexico; winter precipitation in mountainous coastal regions is overestimated. The precipitation patterns related to the North American Monsoon are well reproduced, except on its northern limit. The spatial and temporal structure of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet is well reproduced by the model; however, the night-time precipitation maximum in the jet area is underestimated. The performance of CRCM5 was assessed against earlier CRCM versions and other RCMs. CRCM5 is shown to have been substantially improved compared to CRCM3 and CRCM4 in terms of seasonal mean statistics, and to be comparable to other modern RCMs.

Flow disturbances in stent-related coronary evaginations: a computational fluid-dynamic simulation study

Aims: Angiographic ectasias and aneurysms in stented segments have been associated with late stent thrombosis. Using optical coherence tomography (OCT), some stented segments show coronary evaginations reminiscent of ectasias. The purpose of this study was to explore, using computational fluid-dynamic (CFD) simulations, whether OCT-detected coronary evaginations can induce local changes in blood flow. Methods and results: OCT-detected evaginations are defined as outward bulges in the luminal vessel contour between struts, with the depth of the bulge exceeding the actual strut thickness. Evaginations can be characterised cross ectionally by depth and along the stented segment by total length. Assuming an ellipsoid shape, we modelled 3-D evaginations with different sizes by varying the depth from 0.2-1.0 mm, and the length from 1-9 mm. For the flow simulation we used average flow velocity data from non-diseased coronary arteries. The change in flow with varying evagination sizes was assessed using a particle tracing test where the particle transit time within the segment with evagination was compared with that of a control vessel. The presence of the evagination caused a delayed particle transit time which increased with the evagination size. The change in flow consisted locally of recirculation within the evagination, as well as flow deceleration due to a larger lumen - seen as a deflection of flow towards the evagination. Conclusions: CFD simulation of 3-D evaginations and blood flow suggests that evaginations affect flow locally, with a flow disturbance that increases with increasing evagination size.

Is there good simulation basic training for end-to-side vascular microanastomoses?

BACKGROUND Microvascular anastomosis is the cornerstone of free tissue transfers. Irrespective of the microsurgical technique that one seeks to integrate or improve, the time commitment in the laboratory is significant. After extensive previous training on several animal models, we sought to identify an animal model that circumvents the following issues: ethical rules, cost, time-consuming and expensive anesthesia, and surgical preparation of tissues required to access vessels before performing the microsurgical training, not to mention that laboratories are closed on weekends. METHODS Between January 2012 and April 2012, a total of 91 earthworms were used for 150 microsurgical training exercises to simulate vascular end-to-side microanastomosis. The training sessions were divided into ten periods of 7 days. Each training session included 15 simulations of end-to-side vascular microanastomoses: larger than 1.5 mm (n=5), between 1.0 and 1.5 mm (n=5), and smaller than 1.0 mm (n=5). A linear model with the main variables being the number of weeks (as a numerical covariate) and the size of the animal (as a factor) was used to determine the trend in time of anastomosis over subsequent weeks as well as the differences between the different size groups. RESULTS The linear model shows a significant trend (p<0.001) in time of anastomosis in the course of the training, as well as significant differences (p<0.001) between the groups of animals of different sizes. For microanastomoses larger than 1.5 mm, the mean anastomosis time decreased from 19.3±1.0 to 11.1±0.4 min between the first and last week of training (decrease of 42.5%). For training with smaller diameters, the results showed a decrease in execution time of 43.2% (diameter between 1.0 and 1.5 mm) and 40.9% (diameter<1.0 mm) between the first and last periods. The study demonstrates an improvement in the dexterity and speed of nodes execution. CONCLUSION The earthworm appears to be a reliable experimental model for microsurgical training of end-to-side microanastomoses. Its numerous advantages are discussed here and we predict training on earthworms will significantly grow and develop in the near future. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE III This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

Dynamic high-resolution computer simulation of isotachophoretic enantiomer separation and zone stability

The development of electrophoretic computer models and their use for simulation of electrophoretic processes has increased significantly during the last few years. Recently, GENTRANS and SIMUL5 were extended with algorithms that describe chemical equilibria between solutes and a buffer additive in a fast 1:1 interaction process, an approach that enables simulation of the electrophoretic separation of enantiomers. For acidic cationic systems with sodium and H3 0(+) as leading and terminating components, respectively, acetic acid as counter component, charged weak bases as samples, and a neutral CD as chiral selector, the new codes were used to investigate the dynamics of isotachophoretic adjustment of enantiomers, enantiomer separation, boundaries between enantiomers and between an enantiomer and a buffer constituent of like charge, and zone stability. The impact of leader pH, selector concentration, free mobility of the weak base, mobilities of the formed complexes and complexation constants could thereby be elucidated. For selected examples with methadone enantiomers as analytes and (2-hydroxypropyl)-β-CD as selector, simulated zone patterns were found to compare well with those monitored experimentally in capillary setups with two conductivity detectors or an absorbance and a conductivity detector. Simulation represents an elegant way to provide insight into the formation of isotachophoretic boundaries and zone stability in presence of complexation equilibria in a hitherto inaccessible way.

The coupled atmosphere–chemistry–ocean model SOCOL-MPIOM

The newly developed atmosphere–ocean-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-MPIOM is presented by demonstrating the influence of the interactive chemistry module on the climate state and the variability. Therefore, we compare pre-industrial control simulations with (CHEM) and without (NOCHEM) interactive chemistry. In general, the influence of the chemistry on the mean state and the variability is small and mainly restricted to the stratosphere and mesosphere. The largest differences are found for the atmospheric dynamics in the polar regions, with slightly stronger northern and southern winter polar vortices in CHEM. The strengthening of the vortex is related to larger stratospheric temperature gradients, which are attributed to a parametrization of the absorption of ozone and oxygen in the Lyman-alpha, Schumann–Runge, Hartley, and Higgins bands. This effect is parametrized in the version with interactive chemistry only. A second reason for the temperature differences between CHEM and NOCHEM is related to diurnal variations in the ozone concentrations in the higher atmosphere, which are missing in NOCHEM. Furthermore, stratospheric water vapour concentrations differ substantially between the two experiments, but their effect on the temperatures is small. In both setups, the simulated intensity and variability of the northern polar vortex is inside the range of present day observations. Sudden stratospheric warming events are well reproduced in terms of their frequency, but the distribution amongst the winter months is too uniform. Additionally, the performance of SOCOL-MPIOM under changing external forcings is assessed for the period 1600–2000 using an ensemble of simulations driven by a spectral solar forcing reconstruction. The amplitude of the reconstruction is large in comparison to other state-of-the-art reconstructions, providing an upper limit for the importance of the solar signal. In the pre-industrial period (1600–1850) the simulated surface temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with temperature reconstructions, although the multi-decadal variability is more pronounced. This enhanced variability can be attributed to the variability in the solar forcing. The simulated temperature reductions during the Maunder Minimum are in the lowest probability range of the proxy records. During the Dalton Minimum, when also volcanic forcing is an important driver of temperature variations, the agreement is better. In the industrial period from 1850 onward SOCOL-MPIOM overestimates the temperature increase in comparison to observational data sets. Sensitivity simulations show that this overestimation can be attributed to the increasing trend in the solar forcing reconstruction that is used in this study and an additional warming induced by the simulated ozone changes.

Fatal contact shot to the chest caused by the gas jet from a muzzle-loading pistol discharging only black powder and no bullet: case study and experimental simulation of the wounding effect.

In modern medico-legal literature, only a small number of publications deal with fatal injuries from black powder guns. Most of them focus on the morphological features such as intense soot soiling, blast tattooing and burn effects in close-range shots or describe the wound ballistics of spherical lead bullets. Another kind of "unusual" and potentially lethal weapons are handguns destined for firing only blank cartridges such as starter and alarm pistols. The dangerousness of these guns is restricted to very close and contact range shots and results from the gas jet produced by the deflagration of the propellant. The present paper reports on a suicide committed with a muzzle-loading percussion pistol cal. 45. An unusually large stellate entrance wound was located in the precordial region, accompanied by an imprint mark from the ramrod and a faint greenish discoloration (apparently due to the formation of sulfhemoglobin). Autopsy revealed an oversized powder cavity, multiple fractures of the anterior thoracic wall as well as ruptures of the heart, the aorta, the left hepatic lobe and the diaphragm. In total, the zone of mechanical destruction had a diameter of approx. 15 cm. As there was no exit wound and no bullet lodged in the body, the injury was caused exclusively by the inrushing combustion gases of the propellant (black powder) comparable with the gas jet of a blank cartridge gun. In contact shots to ballistic gelatine using the suicide's pistol loaded with black powder but no projectile, the formation of a nearly spherical cavity could be demonstrated by means of a high-speed camera. The extent of the temporary cavity after firing with 5 g of black powder roughly corresponded to the zone of destruction found in the suicide's body.

QCD and Strongly Coupled Gauge Theories: Challenges and Perspectives

We highlight the progress, current status, and open challenges of QCD-driven physics, in theory and in experiment. We discuss how the strong interaction is intimately connected to a broad sweep of physical problems, in settings ranging from astrophysics and cosmology to strongly coupled, complex systems in particle and condensed-matter physics, as well as to searches for physics beyond the Standard Model. We also discuss how success in describing the strong interaction impacts other fields, and, in turn, how such subjects can impact studies of the strong interaction. In the course of the work we offer a perspective on the many research streams which flow into and out of QCD, as well as a vision for future developments.

Evidence for extinct Cs-135 from Ba isotopes in Allende CAIs?

he abundance and distribution of isotopes throughout the Solar System can be used to constrain the number and type of nucleosynthetic events that contributed material to the early nebula. Barium is particularly well suited to quantifying the degree of isotope heterogeneity in the Solar System because it comprises seven stable isotopes that were synthesized by three different nucleosynthetic processes (s-, r-, and p-processes), all of which contributed material to the Solar System. There is also potential contribution to 135Ba from short-lived radioisotope 135Cs, conclusive evidence for which is yet to be reported. Four Allende (CV3) Ca,Al-rich inclusions (CAI 1, CAI 2, CAI 4, CAI 5) and one Allende dark inclusion (DI) were analyzed for Ba isotope variability. Two CAIs (CAI 2 and CAI 5) display 135Ba excesses that are not accompanied by 137Ba anomalies. Calcium–aluminum-rich inclusion 1 displays a 135Ba excess that is possibly coupled with a 137Ba excess, and the remaining refractory inclusions (CAI 2 and DI) have terrestrial Ba isotope compositions. These Ba isotope data are presented in conjunction with published whole rock Ba isotope data from individual Allende CAIs. The enrichment in 135Ba and absence of coupled 137Ba excesses in CAI 2 and CAI 5 is interpreted to indicate that the anomalies are not purely nucleosynthetic in origin but also contain contributions (16–48 ppm) from the decay of short-lived 135Cs. The majority of Allende CAIs studied to date may also have similar contributions from 135Cs on the basis of higher than expected 135Ba excesses if the Ba isotope anomalies were purely nucleosynthetic in origin. The 135Ba anomalies appear not to be coupled with superchondritic Cs/Ba, which may imply that the contribution to 135Ba did not occur via in situ decay of live 135Cs. However, it is feasible that the CAIs had a superchondritic Cs/Ba during decay of 135Cs, but Cs was subsequently removed from the system during aqueous alteration on the parent body. An alternative scenario is the potential existence of a transient high-temperature reservoir having superchondritic Cs/Ba in the early Solar System while 135Cs was extant, which enabled a radiogenic 135Ba signature to develop in some early condensates. The nucleosynthetic source of 135Cs can be determined by reconciling the predicted astrophysical 135Cs abundance with its measured abundance in meteorites. Further, the currently accepted initial 135Cs/133Cs of the Solar System, [135Cs/133Cs]0, may be underestimated because the spread of Cs/Ba among samples is small and the range of excess 135Ba is limited thus leading to inaccuracies when estimating [135Cs/133Cs]0. If the initial meteoritic abundance of 135Cs was indeed higher than is currently thought, the most probable stellar source of short-lived radioisotopes was a nearby core-collapse supernova and/or the Wolf–Rayet wind driven by its progenitor.

Combining Monte Carlo methods with coherent wave optics for the simulation of phase-sensitive X-ray imaging

Phase-sensitive X-ray imaging shows a high sensitivity towards electron density variations, making it well suited for imaging of soft tissue matter. However, there are still open questions about the details of the image formation process. Here, a framework for numerical simulations of phase-sensitive X-ray imaging is presented, which takes both particle- and wave-like properties of X-rays into consideration. A split approach is presented where we combine a Monte Carlo method (MC) based sample part with a wave optics simulation based propagation part, leading to a framework that takes both particle- and wave-like properties into account. The framework can be adapted to different phase-sensitive imaging methods and has been validated through comparisons with experiments for grating interferometry and propagation-based imaging. The validation of the framework shows that the combination of wave optics and MC has been successfully implemented and yields good agreement between measurements and simulations. This demonstrates that the physical processes relevant for developing a deeper understanding of scattering in the context of phase-sensitive imaging are modelled in a sufficiently accurate manner. The framework can be used for the simulation of phase-sensitive X-ray imaging, for instance for the simulation of grating interferometry or propagation-based imaging.

Dynamic computer simulation of electrophoretic enantiomer migration order and separation in presence of a neutral cyclodextrin

One-dimensional dynamic computer simulation was employed to investigate the separation and migration order change of ketoconazole enantiomers at low pH in presence of increasing amounts of (2-hydroxypropyl)-β-cyclodextrin (OHP-β-CD). The 1:1 interaction of ketoconazole with the neutral cyclodextrin was simulated under real experimental conditions and by varying input parameters for complex mobilities and complexation constants. Simulation results obtained with experimentally determined apparent ionic mobilities, complex mobilities, and complexation constants were found to compare well with the calculated separation selectivity and experimental data. Simulation data revealed that the migration order of the ketoconazole enantiomers at low (OHP-β-CD) concentrations (i.e. below migration order inversion) is essentially determined by the difference in complexation constants and at high (OHP-β-CD) concentrations (i.e. above migration order inversion) by the difference in complex mobilities. Furthermore, simulations with complex mobilities set to zero provided data that mimic migration order and separation with the chiral selector being immobilized. For the studied CEC configuration, no migration order inversion is predicted and separations are shown to be quicker and electrophoretic transport reduced in comparison to migration in free solution. The presented data illustrate that dynamic computer simulation is a valuable tool to study electrokinetic migration and separations of enantiomers in presence of a complexing agent.

Diagenesis of a light, tight-oil chert reservoir at the Ediacaran/Cambrian boundary, Sultanate of Oman

The Al Shomou Silicilyte Member (Athel Formation) in the South Oman Salt Basin shares many of the characteristics of a light, tight-oil (LTO) reservoir: it is a prolifi c source rock mature for light oil, it produces light oil from a very tight matrix and reservoir, and hydraulic fracking technology is required to produce the oil. What is intriguing about the Al Shomou Silicilyte, and different from other LTO reservoirs, is its position related to the Precambrian/Cambrian Boundary (PCB) and the fact that it is a ‘laminated chert‘ rather than a shale. In an integrated diagenetic study we applied microstructural analyses (SEM, BSE) combined with state-of-the-art stable isotope and trace element analysis of the silicilyte matrix and fractures. Fluid inclusion microthermometry was applied to record the salinity and minimum trapping temperatures. The microstructural investigations reveal a fi ne lamination of the silicilyte matrix with a mean lamina thickness of ca. 20 μm consisting of predominantly organic matter-rich and fi nely crystalline quartz-rich layers, respectively. Authigenic, micron-sized idiomorphic quartz crystals are the main matrix components of the silicilyte. Other diagenetic phases are pyrite, apatite, dolomite, magnesite and barite cements. Porosity values based on neutron density logs and core plug data indicate porosity in the silicilyte ranges from less than 2% to almost to 40%. The majority of the pore space in the silicilyte is related to (primary) inter-crystalline pores, with locally important oversized secondary pores. Pore casts of the silica matrix show that pores are extremely irregular in three dimensions, and are generally interconnected by a complex web or meshwork of fi ne elongate pore throats. Mercury injection capillary data are in line with the microstructural observations suggesting two populations of pore throats, with an effective average modal diameter of 0.4 μm. The acquired geochemical data support the interpretation that the primary source of the silica is the ambient seawater rather than hydrothermal or biogenic. A maximum temperature of ca. 45°C for the formation of microcrystalline quartz in the silicilyte is good evidence that the lithifi cation and crystallization of quartz occurred in the fi rst 5 Ma after deposition. Several phases of brittle fracturing and mineralization occurred in response to salt tectonics during burial. The sequences of fracture-fi lling mineral phases (dolomite - layered chalcedony – quartz – apatite - magnesite I+II - barite – halite) indicates a complex fl uid evolution after silicilyte lithifi cation. Primary, all-liquid fl uid inclusions in the fracturefi lling quartz are good evidence of growth beginning at low temperatures, i.e. ≤ 50ºC. Continuous precipitation during increasing temperature and burial is documented by primary two-phase fl uid inclusions in quartz cements that show brines at 50°C and fi rst hydrocarbons at ca. 70°C. The absolute timing of each mineral phase can be constrained based on U-Pb geochronometry, and basin modelling. Secondary fl uid inclusions in quartz, magnesite and barite indicate reactivation of the fracture system after peak burial temperature during the major cooling event, i.e. uplift, between 450 and 310 Ma. A number of fi rst-order trends in porosity and reservoir-quality distribution are observed which are strongly related to the diagenetic and fl uid history of the reservoir: the early in-situ generation of hydrocarbons and overpressure development arrests diagenesis and preserves matrix porosity. Chemical compaction by pressure dissolution in the fl ank areas could be a valid hypothesis to explain the porosity variations in the silicilitye slabs resulting in lower porosity and poorer connectivity on the fl anks of the reservoir. Most of the hydrocarbon storage and production comes from intervals characterized by Amthor et al. 114488 preserved micropores, not hydrocarbon storage in a fracture system. The absence of oil expulsion results in present-day high oil saturations. The main diagenetic modifi cations of the silicilyte occurred and were completed relatively early in its history, i.e. before 300 Ma. An instrumental factor for preserving matrix porosity is the diffi culty for a given slab to evacuate all the fl uids (water and hydrocarbons), or in other words, the very good sealing capacity of the salt embedding the slab.

Comparing three CPR feedback devices and standard BLS in a single rescuer scenario: a randomised simulation study

BACKGROUND Efficiently performed basic life support (BLS) after cardiac arrest is proven to be effective. However, cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is strenuous and rescuers' performance declines rapidly over time. Audio-visual feedback devices reporting CPR quality may prevent this decline. We aimed to investigate the effect of various CPR feedback devices on CPR quality. METHODS In this open, prospective, randomised, controlled trial we compared three CPR feedback devices (PocketCPR, CPRmeter, iPhone app PocketCPR) with standard BLS without feedback in a simulated scenario. 240 trained medical students performed single rescuer BLS on a manikin for 8min. Effective compression (compressions with correct depth, pressure point and sufficient decompression) as well as compression rate, flow time fraction and ventilation parameters were compared between the four groups. RESULTS Study participants using the PocketCPR performed 17±19% effective compressions compared to 32±28% with CPRmeter, 25±27% with the iPhone app PocketCPR, and 35±30% applying standard BLS (PocketCPR vs. CPRmeter p=0.007, PocketCPR vs. standard BLS p=0.001, others: ns). PocketCPR and CPRmeter prevented a decline in effective compression over time, but overall performance in the PocketCPR group was considerably inferior to standard BLS. Compression depth and rate were within the range recommended in the guidelines in all groups. CONCLUSION While we found differences between the investigated CPR feedback devices, overall BLS quality was suboptimal in all groups. Surprisingly, effective compression was not improved by any CPR feedback device compared to standard BLS. All feedback devices caused substantial delay in starting CPR, which may worsen outcome.

Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria's ecosystem services

East Africa’s Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake’s shores and abroad. In particular, the lake’s fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria’s system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake’s social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks’ vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society’s vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales.