Prognosis of Children with HIV-1 Infection Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in Southern Africa: A Collaborative Analysis of Treatment Programs

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models for children starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa are lacking. We developed models to estimate the probability of death during the first year receiving ART in Southern Africa. METHODS: We analyzed data from children ≤10 years old who started ART in Malawi, South Africa, Zambia or Zimbabwe from 2004-2010. Children lost to follow-up or transferred were excluded. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality in the first year of ART. We used Weibull survival models to construct two prognostic models: one with CD4%, age, WHO clinical stage, weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) and anemia and one without CD4%, because it is not routinely measured in many programs. We used multiple imputation to account for missing data. RESULTS: Among 12655 children, 877 (6.9%) died in the first year of ART. 1780 children were lost to follow-up/transferred and excluded from main analyses; 10875 children were included. With the CD4% model probability of death at 1 year ranged from 1.8% (95% CI: 1.5-2.3) in children 5-10 years with CD4% ≥10%, WHO stage I/II, WAZ ≥-2 and without severe anemia to 46.3% (95% CI: 38.2-55.2) in children <1 year with CD4% <5%, stage III/IV, WAZ< -3 and severe anemia. The corresponding range for the model without CD4% was 2.2% (95% CI: 1.8-2.7) to 33.4% (95% CI: 28.2-39.3). Agreement between predicted and observed mortality was good (C-statistics=0.753 and 0.745 for models with and without CD4% respectively). CONCLUSION: These models may be useful to counsel children/caregivers, for program planning and to assess program outcomes after allowing for differences in patient disease severity characteristics.

Temporal trends in the characteristics of children at antiretroviral therapy initiation in southern Africa: the IeDEA-SA Collaboration

BACKGROUND Since 2005, increasing numbers of children have started antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa and, in recent years, WHO and country treatment guidelines have recommended ART initiation for all infants and very young children, and at higher CD4 thresholds for older children. We examined temporal changes in patient and regimen characteristics at ART start using data from 12 cohorts in 4 countries participating in the IeDEA-SA collaboration. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Data from 30,300 ART-naïve children aged <16 years at ART initiation who started therapy between 2005 and 2010 were analysed. We examined changes in median values for continuous variables using the Cuzick's test for trend over time. We also examined changes in the proportions of patients with particular disease severity characteristics (expressed as a binary variable e.g. WHO Stage III/IV vs I/II) using logistic regression. Between 2005 and 2010 the number of children starting ART each year increased and median age declined from 63 months (2006) to 56 months (2010). Both the proportion of children <1 year and ≥10 years of age increased from 12 to 19% and 18 to 22% respectively. Children had less severe disease at ART initiation in later years with significant declines in the percentage with severe immunosuppression (81 to 63%), WHO Stage III/IV disease (75 to 62%), severe anemia (12 to 7%) and weight-for-age z-score<-3 (31 to 28%). Similar results were seen when restricting to infants with significant declines in the proportion with severe immunodeficiency (98 to 82%) and Stage III/IV disease (81 to 63%). First-line regimen use followed country guidelines. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Between 2005 and 2010 increasing numbers of children have initiated ART with a decline in disease severity at start of therapy. However, even in 2010, a substantial number of infants and children started ART with advanced disease. These results highlight the importance of efforts to improve access to HIV diagnostic testing and ART in children.

Adolescents' value of children and their intentions to have children: A cross-cultural and multilevel analysis

This study contributes to research regarding the value of children (VOC) by comparing adolescents' VOC and their intentions to have children across 12 cultures and by exploring the relations between these constructs at the individual and cultural levels using multilevel modeling. A total of 3,348 adolescents from 12 cultures participated in this study. On average, adolescents reported that they intended to have about two children and also reported emotional VOC as being highly important. Adolescents from cultures with a low as compared to a high level of economic development reported a higher importance of the utilitarian-normative VOC. Results of the multilevel analyses showed that the reported emotional VOC was positively related to the number of children adolescents intended to have at the individual level, whereas the utilitarian-normative VOC was not related to adolescents' intention to have children. At the cultural level, the VOC dimensions were only partly related to adolescents' intention to have children. The results are discussed with regard to adolescents' future family orientation and in relation to the VOC approach.

Values of children and family models of adolescents: An eleven-culture study

Starting from Kagitcibasi's (2007) conceptualization of family models, this study compared N = 2961 adolescents' values across eleven cultures and explored whether patterns of values were related to the three proposed family models through cluster analyses. Three clusters with value profiles corresponding to the family models of interdependence, emotional interdependence, and independence were identified on the cultural as well as on the individual level. Furthermore, individual-level clusters corresponded to culture-level clusters in terms of individual cluster membership. The results largely support Kagitcibasi's proposition of changing family models and demonstrate their representation as individual-level value profiles across cultures.

The changing values of children and preferences regarding family size in south Africa

This study extends the ongoing studies on values of children and intergenerational relations into an African context with the following key questions: To what extent can the structure of values of children (VOC) identified in previous studies be found in South Africa and what are women's preferences regarding the size of small, large, and ideal families? The sample consisted of three cohorts of Black South African women from the Limpopo Province. Factor analyses showed that the dimensions of VOC found in South Africa are a conglomeration of different values. Identified dimensions were Social/Emotional and Traditional/Utilitarian with respect to reasons for wanting children. Regarding reasons for not wanting children, Child as Source of Constraints and Constraints to Have a Child were identified. Intergenerational comparisons showed variations in the importance of value of children dimensions and in preferences regarding family size. Values of children of younger mothers were related to the number of children these women had and to their preferences regarding family size. The findings are discussed within the changing socio-political context of South Africa.