Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe.

Calibrating a CGE model with NTBs that Incorporates Standard Models of Modern Trade Theory

We propose a way to incorporate NTBs for the four workhorse models of the modern trade literature in computable general equilibrium models (CGEs). CGE models feature intermediate linkages and thus allow us to study global value chains (GVCs). We show that the Ethier-Krugman monopolistic competition model, the Melitz firm heterogeneity model and the Eaton and Kortum model can be defined as an Armington model with generalized marginal costs, generalized trade costs and a demand externality. As already known in the literature in both the Ethier-Krugman model and the Melitz model generalized marginal costs are a function of the amount of factor input bundles. In the Melitz model generalized marginal costs are also a function of the price of the factor input bundles. Lower factor prices raise the number of firms that can enter the market profitably (extensive margin), reducing generalized marginal costs of a representative firm. For the same reason the Melitz model features a demand externality: in a larger market more firms can enter. We implement the different models in a CGE setting with multiple sectors, intermediate linkages, non-homothetic preferences and detailed data on trade costs. We find the largest welfare effects from trade cost reductions in the Melitz model. We also employ the Melitz model to mimic changes in Non tariff Barriers (NTBs) with a fixed cost-character by analysing the effect of changes in fixed trade costs. While we work here with a model calibrated to the GTAP database, the methods developed can also be applied to CGE models based on the WIOD database.

Switching to second-line antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings: comparison of programmes with and without viral load monitoring

BACKGROUND: In high-income countries, viral load is routinely measured to detect failure of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and guide switching to second-line ART. Viral load monitoring is not generally available in resource-limited settings. We examined switching from nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based first-line regimens to protease inhibitor-based regimens in Africa, South America and Asia. DESIGN AND METHODS: Multicohort study of 17 ART programmes. All sites monitored CD4 cell count and had access to second-line ART and 10 sites monitored viral load. We compared times to switching, CD4 cell counts at switching and obtained adjusted hazard ratios for switching (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from random-effects Weibull models. RESULTS: A total of 20 113 patients, including 6369 (31.7%) patients from 10 programmes with access to viral load monitoring, were analysed; 576 patients (2.9%) switched. Low CD4 cell counts at ART initiation were associated with switching in all programmes. Median time to switching was 16.3 months [interquartile range (IQR) 10.1-26.6] in programmes with viral load monitoring and 21.8 months (IQR 14.0-21.8) in programmes without viral load monitoring (P < 0.001). Median CD4 cell counts at switching were 161 cells/microl (IQR 77-265) in programmes with viral load monitoring and 102 cells/microl (44-181) in programmes without viral load monitoring (P < 0.001). Switching was more common in programmes with viral load monitoring during months 7-18 after starting ART (aHR 1.38; 95% CI 0.97-1.98), similar during months 19-30 (aHR 0.97; 95% CI 0.58-1.60) and less common during months 31-42 (aHR 0.29; 95% CI 0.11-0.79). CONCLUSION: In resource-limited settings, switching to second-line regimens tends to occur earlier and at higher CD4 cell counts in ART programmes with viral load monitoring compared with programmes without viral load monitoring.

Search for long-lived stopped R-hadrons decaying out-of-time with pp collisions using the ATLAS detector

An updated search is performed for gluino, top squark, or bottom squark R-hadrons that have come to rest within the ATLAS calorimeter, and decay at some later time to hadronic jets and a neutralino, using 5.0 and 22.9 fb(-1) of pp collisions at 7 and 8 TeV, respectively. Candidate decay events are triggered in selected empty bunch crossings of the LHC in order to remove pp collision backgrounds. Selections based on jet shape and muon system activity are applied to discriminate signal events from cosmic ray and beam-halo muon backgrounds. In the absence of an excess of events, improved limits are set on gluino, stop, and sbottom masses for different decays, lifetimes, and neutralino masses. With a neutralino of mass 100 GeV, the analysis excludes gluinos with mass below 832 GeV (with an expected lower limit of 731 GeV), for a gluino lifetime between 10 mu s and 1000 s in the generic R-hadron model with equal branching ratios for decays to q (q) over bar(chi) over tilde (0) and g (chi) over tilde (0). Under the same assumptions for the neutralino mass and squark lifetime, top squarks and bottom squarks in the Regge R-hadron model are excluded with masses below 379 and 344 GeV, respectively.

Glomerular filtration rate, urine production, and fractional clearance of electrolytes in acute kidney injury in dogs and their association with survival.

BACKGROUND Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in dogs. Few studies have assessed sequential changes in indices of kidney function in dogs with naturally occurring AKI. OBJECTIVE To document sequential changes of conventional indices of renal function, to better define the course of AKI, and to identify a candidate marker for recovery. ANIMALS Ten dogs with AKI. METHODS Dogs were prospectively enrolled and divided into surviving and nonsurviving dogs. Urine production was measured with a closed system for 7 days. One and 24-hour urinary clearances were performed daily to estimate solute excretion and glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Solute excretion was calculated as an excretion ratio (ER) and fractional clearance (FC) based on both the 1- and 24-hour urine collections. RESULTS Four dogs survived and 6 died. At presentation, GFR was not significantly different between the outcome groups, but significantly (P = .03) increased over time in the surviving, but not in the nonsurviving dogs. Fractional clearance of Na decreased significantly over time (20.2-9.4%, P < .0001) in the surviving, but not in the nonsurviving dogs. The ER and FC of solutes were highly correlated (r, 0.70-0.95). CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL IMPACT Excretion ratio might be used in the clinical setting as a surrogate marker to follow trends in solute excretion. Increased GFR, urine production, and decreased FC of Na were markers of renal recovery. The FC of Na is a simple, noninvasive, and cost-effective method that can be used to evaluate recovery of renal function.

Evidence for Electroweak Production of W±W±jj in pp Collisions at √s=8 TeV with the ATLAS Detector

This Letter presents the first study of W ± W ± jj , same-electric-charge diboson production in association with two jets, using 20.3  fb −1 of proton-proton collision data at s √ =8  TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Events with two reconstructed same-charge leptons (e ± e ± , e ± μ ± , and μ ± μ ± ) and two or more jets are analyzed. Production cross sections are measured in two fiducial regions, with different sensitivities to the electroweak and strong production mechanisms. First evidence for W ± W ± jj production and electroweak-only W ± W ± jj production is observed with a significance of 4.5 and 3.6 standard deviations, respectively. The measured production cross sections are in agreement with standard model predictions. Limits at 95% confidence level are set on anomalous quartic gauge couplings

Gravitational wave background from Standard Model physics: qualitative features

Because of physical processes ranging from microscopic particle collisions to macroscopic hydrodynamic fluctuations, any plasma in thermal equilibrium emits gravitational waves. For the largest wavelengths the emission rate is proportional to the shear viscosity of the plasma. In the Standard Model at 0T > 16 GeV, the shear viscosity is dominated by the most weakly interacting particles, right-handed leptons, and is relatively large. We estimate the order of magnitude of the corresponding spectrum of gravitational waves. Even though at small frequencies (corresponding to the sub-Hz range relevant for planned observatories such as eLISA) this background is tiny compared with that from non-equilibrium sources, the total energy carried by the high-frequency part of the spectrum is non-negligible if the production continues for a long time. We suggest that this may constrain (weakly) the highest temperature of the radiation epoch. Observing the high-frequency part directly sets a very ambitious goal for future generations of GHz-range detectors.

Atmospheric water parameters measured by a ground-based microwave radiometer and compared with the WRF model

The microwave radiometer TROWARA measures integrated water vapour (IWV) and integrated cloud liquid water (ILW) at Bern since 1994 with a time resolution of 7 s. In this study, we compare TROWARA measurements with a simulation of summer 2012 in Switzerland performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It is found that the WRF model agrees very well with TROWARA’s IWV variations with a mean bias of only 0.7 mm. The ILW distribution of the WRF model, although similar in shape to TROWARA’s distribution, overestimates the fraction of clear sky periods (83% compared to 60%).

From quantum to classical dynamics: The relativistic O ( N ) model in the framework of the real-time functional renormalization group

We investigate the transition from unitary to dissipative dynamics in the relativistic O(N) vector model with the λ(φ2)2 interaction using the nonperturbative functional renormalization group in the real-time formalism. In thermal equilibrium, the theory is characterized by two scales, the interaction range for coherent scattering of particles and the mean free path determined by the rate of incoherent collisions with excitations in the thermal medium. Their competition determines the renormalization group flow and the effective dynamics of the model. Here we quantify the dynamic properties of the model in terms of the scale-dependent dynamic critical exponent z in the limit of large temperatures and in 2≤d≤4 spatial dimensions. We contrast our results to the behavior expected at vanishing temperature and address the question of the appropriate dynamic universality class for the given microscopic theory.

Variable Na(v)1.5 protein expression from the wild-type allele correlates with the penetrance of cardiac conduction disease in the Scn5a(+/-) mouse model

BACKGROUND: Loss-of-function mutations in SCN5A, the gene encoding Na(v)1.5 Na+ channel, are associated with inherited cardiac conduction defects and Brugada syndrome, which both exhibit variable phenotypic penetrance of conduction defects. We investigated the mechanisms of this heterogeneity in a mouse model with heterozygous targeted disruption of Scn5a (Scn5a(+/-) mice) and compared our results to those obtained in patients with loss-of-function mutations in SCN5A. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Based on ECG, 10-week-old Scn5a(+/-) mice were divided into 2 subgroups, one displaying severe ventricular conduction defects (QRS interval>18 ms) and one a mild phenotype (QRS< or = 18 ms; QRS in wild-type littermates: 10-18 ms). Phenotypic difference persisted with aging. At 10 weeks, the Na+ channel blocker ajmaline prolonged QRS interval similarly in both groups of Scn5a(+/-) mice. In contrast, in old mice (>53 weeks), ajmaline effect was larger in the severely affected subgroup. These data matched the clinical observations on patients with SCN5A loss-of-function mutations with either severe or mild conduction defects. Ventricular tachycardia developed in 5/10 old severely affected Scn5a(+/-) mice but not in mildly affected ones. Correspondingly, symptomatic SCN5A-mutated Brugada patients had more severe conduction defects than asymptomatic patients. Old severely affected Scn5a(+/-) mice but not mildly affected ones showed extensive cardiac fibrosis. Mildly affected Scn5a(+/-) mice had similar Na(v)1.5 mRNA but higher Na(v)1.5 protein expression, and moderately larger I(Na) current than severely affected Scn5a(+/-) mice. As a consequence, action potential upstroke velocity was more decreased in severely affected Scn5a(+/-) mice than in mildly affected ones. CONCLUSIONS: Scn5a(+/-) mice show similar phenotypic heterogeneity as SCN5A-mutated patients. In Scn5a(+/-) mice, phenotype severity correlates with wild-type Na(v)1.5 protein expression.

Femur Specific Polyaffine Model to Regularize the Log-Domain Demons Registration

Osteoarticular allograft transplantation is a popular treatment method in wide surgical resections with large defects. For this reason hospitals are building bone data banks. Performing the optimal allograft selection on bone banks is crucial to the surgical outcome and patient recovery. However, current approaches are very time consuming hindering an efficient selection. We present an automatic method based on registration of femur bones to overcome this limitation. We introduce a new regularization term for the log-domain demons algorithm. This term replaces the standard Gaussian smoothing with a femur specific polyaffine model. The polyaffine femur model is constructed with two affine (femoral head and condyles) and one rigid (shaft) transformation. Our main contribution in this paper is to show that the demons algorithm can be improved in specific cases with an appropriate model. We are not trying to find the most optimal polyaffine model of the femur, but the simplest model with a minimal number of parameters. There is no need to optimize for different number of regions, boundaries and choice of weights, since this fine tuning will be done automatically by a final demons relaxation step with Gaussian smoothing. The newly developed synthesis approach provides a clear anatomically motivated modeling contribution through the specific three component transformation model, and clearly shows a performance improvement (in terms of anatomical meaningful correspondences) on 146 CT images of femurs compared to a standard multiresolution demons. In addition, this simple model improves the robustness of the demons while preserving its accuracy. The ground truth are manual measurements performed by medical experts.

Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 and climate to explosive volcanic eruptions

Impacts of low-latitude, explosive volcanic eruptions on climate and the carbon cycle are quantified by forcing a comprehensive, fully coupled carbon cycle-climate model with pulse-like stratospheric aerosol optical depth changes. The model represents the radiative and dynamical response of the climate system to volcanic eruptions and simulates a decrease of global and regional atmospheric surface temperature, regionally distinct changes in precipitation, a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and a decrease in atmospheric CO2 after volcanic eruptions. The volcanic-induced cooling reduces overturning rates in tropical soils, which dominates over reduced litter input due to soil moisture decrease, resulting in higher land carbon inventories for several decades. The perturbation in the ocean carbon inventory changes sign from an initial weak carbon sink to a carbon source. Positive carbon and negative temperature anomalies in subsurface waters last up to several decades. The multi-decadal decrease in atmospheric CO2 yields a small additional radiative forcing that amplifies the cooling and perturbs the Earth System on longer time scales than the atmospheric residence time of volcanic aerosols. In addition, century-scale global warming simulations with and without volcanic eruptions over the historical period show that the ocean integrates volcanic radiative cooling and responds for different physical and biogeochemical parameters such as steric sea level or dissolved oxygen. Results from a suite of sensitivity simulations with different magnitudes of stratospheric aerosol optical depth changes and from global warming simulations show that the carbon cycle-climate sensitivity γ, expressed as change in atmospheric CO2 per unit change in global mean surface temperature, depends on the magnitude and temporal evolution of the perturbation, and time scale of interest. On decadal time scales, modeled γ is several times larger for a Pinatubo-like eruption than for the industrial period and for a high emission, 21st century scenario.