Index-Oriented Methodologies for Landslide Consequence Analysis: An Application to a Mountain Community in the French Alps

Consequence analysis is a key aspect of anchoring assessment of landslide impacts to present and long-term development planning. Although several approaches have been developed over the last decade, some of them are difficult to apply in practice, mainly because of the lack of valuable data on historical damages or on damage functions. In this paper, two possible consequence indicators based on a combination of descriptors of the exposure of the elements at risk are proposed in order to map the potential impacts of landslides and highlight the most vulnerable areas. The first index maps the physical vulnerability due to landslide; the second index maps both direct damage (physical, structural, functional) and indirect damage (socio-economic impacts) of landslide hazards. The indexes have been computed for the 200 km2 area of the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps), and their potential applications are discussed.

BPM software and process modelling languages in practice

IT has turned out to be a key factor for the purposes of gaining maturity in Business Process Management (BPM). This book presents a worldwide investigation that was conducted among companies from the ‘Forbes Global 2000’ list to explore the current usage of software throughout the BPM life cycle and to identify the companies’ requirements concerning process modelling. The responses from 130 companies indicate that, at the present time, it is mainly software for process description and analysis that is required, while process execution is supported by general software such as databases, ERP systems and office tools. The resulting complex system landscapes give rise to distinct requirements for BPM software, while the process modelling requirements can be equally satisfied by the most common languages (BPMN, UML, EPC).

Patient self-management of oral anticoagulation with vitamin k antagonists in everyday practice: efficacy and safety in a nationwide long-term prospective cohort study.

Patient self-management (PSM) of oral anticoagulation is under discussion, because evidence from real-life settings is missing. Using data from a nationwide, prospective cohort study in Switzerland, we assessed overall long-term efficacy and safety of PSM and examined subgroups. Data of 1140 patients (5818.9 patient-years) were analysed and no patient were lost to follow-up. Median follow-up was 4.3 years (range 0.2-12.8 years). Median age at the time of training was 54.2 years (range 18.2-85.2) and 34.6% were women. All-cause mortality was 1.4 per 100 patient-years (95% CI 1.1-1.7) with a higher rate in patients with atrial fibrillation (2.5; 1.6-3.7; p<0.001), patients>50 years of age (2.0; 1.6-2.6; p<0.001), and men (1.6; 1.2-2.1; p = 0.036). The rate of thromboembolic events was 0.4 (0.2-0.6) and independent from indications, sex and age. Major bleeding were observed in 1.1 (0.9-1.5) per 100 patient-years. Efficacy was comparable to standard care and new oral anticoagulants in a network meta-analysis. PSM of properly trained patients is effective and safe in a long-term real-life setting and robust across clinical subgroups. Adoption in various clinical settings, including those with limited access to medical care or rural areas is warranted.

Comparative effectiveness of long term drug treatment strategies to prevent asthma exacerbations: network meta-analysis

Objective To determine the comparative effectiveness and safety of current maintenance strategies in preventing exacerbations of asthma. Design Systematic review and network meta-analysis using Bayesian statistics. Data sources Cochrane systematic reviews on chronic asthma, complemented by an updated search when appropriate. Eligibility criteria Trials of adults with asthma randomised to maintenance treatments of at least 24 weeks duration and that reported on asthma exacerbations in full text. Low dose inhaled corticosteroid treatment was the comparator strategy. The primary effectiveness outcome was the rate of severe exacerbations. The secondary outcome was the composite of moderate or severe exacerbations. The rate of withdrawal was analysed as a safety outcome. Results 64 trials with 59 622 patient years of follow-up comparing 15 strategies and placebo were included. For prevention of severe exacerbations, combined inhaled corticosteroids and long acting β agonists as maintenance and reliever treatment and combined inhaled corticosteroids and long acting β agonists in a fixed daily dose performed equally well and were ranked first for effectiveness. The rate ratios compared with low dose inhaled corticosteroids were 0.44 (95% credible interval 0.29 to 0.66) and 0.51 (0.35 to 0.77), respectively. Other combined strategies were not superior to inhaled corticosteroids and all single drug treatments were inferior to single low dose inhaled corticosteroids. Safety was best for conventional best (guideline based) practice and combined maintenance and reliever therapy. Conclusions Strategies with combined inhaled corticosteroids and long acting β agonists are most effective and safe in preventing severe exacerbations of asthma, although some heterogeneity was observed in this network meta-analysis of full text reports.

Mindfulness-based cognitive therapie for depression (MBCT) in clinical practice - baseline patient characteristics, process and outcome

Introduction: Mindfulness based cognitive therapy for depression (MBCT) has shown to be effective for the reduction of depressive relapse. However, additional information regarding baseline patient characteristics and process features related to positive response could be helpful both for the provision of MBCT in clinical practice, as well as for its further development. Method: Baseline characteristics, process data, and immediate outcome (symptom change, change in attitudes and trait mindfulness) of 108 patients receiving MBCT in routine care were recorded. A newly developed self-report measure (Daily Mindfulness Scale, DMS) was applied daily during the MBCT program. Additionally, patients filed daily reports on their mindfulness practice. There was no control group available. Results: Patients with more severe initial symptoms indicated greater amounts of symptom improvement, but did not show great rates of dropout from the MBCT intervention. Younger age was related to higher rates of dropout. Contradictory to some previous data, patients with lower levels of initial trait mindfulness showed greater improvement in symptoms, even after controlling for initial levels of symptoms. Adherence to daily mindfulness practice was high. Consistent with this result, the duration of daily mindfulness practice was not related to immediate outcome. Process studies using multivariate time series analysis revealed a specific role of daily mindfulness in reducing subsequent negative mood. Conclusions: Within the range of patient present in this study and the given study design, results support the use of MBCT in more heterogeneous groups. This demanding intervention was well tolerated by patients with higher levels of symptoms, and resulted in significant improvements regarding residual symptoms. Process-outcome analyses of initial trait mindfulness and daily mindfulness both support the crucial role of changes in mindfulness for the effects of MBCT.

Metformin and the risk of head and neck cancer: a case-control analysis

AIMS Metformin use has been associated with a decreased risk of some cancers, although data on head and neck cancer (HNC) are scarce. We explored the relation between the use of antidiabetic drugs and the risk of HNC. METHODS We conducted a case-control analysis in the UK-based Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) of people with incident HNC between 1995 and 2013 below the age of 90 years. Six controls per case were matched on age, sex, calendar time, general practice and number of years of active history in the CPRD prior to the index date. Other potential confounders including body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol consumption and comorbidities were also evaluated. The final analyses were adjusted for BMI, smoking and diabetes mellitus (or diabetes duration in a sensitivity analysis). Results are presented as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS Use of metformin was neither associated with a statistically significant altered risk of HNC overall (1-29 prescriptions: adjusted OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.61-1.24 and ≥ 30 prescriptions adjusted OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.53-1.22), nor was long-term use of sulphonylureas (adjusted OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.59-1.30), or any insulin use (adjusted OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.63-1.35). However, we found a (statistically non-significant) decreased risk of laryngeal cancer associated with long-term metformin use (adjusted OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.17-1.03). CONCLUSIONS In this population-based study, the use of antidiabetic drugs was not associated with a materially altered risk of HNC. Our data suggest a protective effect of long-term metformin use for laryngeal cancer.

Incidence of and risk factors for severe hypoglycaemia in treated type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in the UK - a nested case-control analysis

AIMS To assess incidence rates (IRs) of and identify risk factors for incident severe hypoglycaemia in patients with type 2 diabetes newly treated with antidiabetic drugs. METHODS Using the UK-based General Practice Research Database, we performed a retrospective cohort study between 1994 and 2011 and a nested case-control analysis. Ten controls from the population at risk were matched to each case with a recorded severe hypoglycaemia during follow-up on general practice, years of history in the database and calendar time. Using multivariate conditional logistic regression analyses, we adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS Of 130,761 patients with newly treated type 2 diabetes (mean age 61.7 ± 13.0 years), 690 (0.5%) had an incident episode of severe hypoglycaemia recorded [estimated IR 11.97 (95% confidence interval, CI, 11.11-12.90) per 10,000 person-years (PYs)]. The IR was markedly higher in insulin users [49.64 (95% CI, 44.08-55.89) per 10,000 PYs] than in patients not using insulin [8.03 (95% CI, 7.30-8.84) per 10,000 PYs]. Based on results of the nested case-control analysis increasing age [≥ 75 vs. 20-59 years; adjusted odds ratio (OR), 2.27; 95% CI, 1.65-3.12], cognitive impairment/dementia (adjusted OR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.37-2.91), renal failure (adjusted OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.04-1.71), current use of sulphonylureas (adjusted OR, 4.45; 95% CI, 3.53-5.60) and current insulin use (adjusted OR, 11.83; 95% CI, 9.00-15.54) were all associated with an increased risk of severe hypoglycaemia. CONCLUSIONS Severe hypoglycaemia was recorded in 12 cases per 10,000 PYs. Risk factors for severe hypoglycaemia included increasing age, renal failure, cognitive impairment/dementia, and current use of insulin or sulphonylureas.

Is mental practice an effective adjunct therapeutic strategy for upper limb motor restoration after stroke?

Stroke is one of the most common conditions requiring rehabilitation, and its motor impairments are a major cause of permanent disability. Hemiparesis is observed by 80% of the patients after acute stroke. Neuroimaging studies showed that real and imagined movements have similarities regarding brain activation, supplying evidence that those similarities are based on the same process. Within this context, the combination of MP with physical and occupational therapy appears to be a natural complement based on neurorehabilitation concepts. Our study seeks to investigate if MP for stroke rehabilitation of upper limbs is an effective adjunct therapy. PubMed (Medline), ISI knowledge (Institute for Scientific Information) and SciELO (Scientific Electronic Library) were terminated on 20 February 2015. Data were collected on variables as follows: sample size, type of supervision, configuration of mental practice, setting the physical practice (intensity, number of sets and repetitions, duration of contractions, rest interval between sets, weekly and total duration), measures of sensorimotor deficits used in the main studies and significant results. Random effects models were used that take into account the variance within and between studies. Seven articles were selected. As there was no statistically significant difference between the two groups (MP vs Control), showed a – 0.6 (95% CI: –1.27 to 0.04), for upper limb motor restoration after stroke. The present meta-analysis concluded that MP is not effective as adjunct therapeutic strategy for upper limb motor restoration after stroke.

No sports – no mental health? Analysis of longitudinal effects in SHP data.

Results from the Zurich study have shown lasting associations between sport practice and mental health. The effects are pronounced in people with pre-exising mental health problems. This analysis aims to replicate these results with the large Swiss Household Panel data set and to provide more differentiated results. The analysis covered the interviews 1999-2003 and included 3891 stayers, i.e., participants who were interviewed in all years. The outcome variables are depression / blues / anxiety, weakness / weariness, sleeping problems, energy / optimism. Confounding variables include sex, age, education level, citizenship. The analyses were carried out with mixed models (depression, optimism) and GEE models (weakness, sleep). About 60% of the SHP participants practise weekly or daily an individual or a team sport. A similar proportion enjoys a frequent physical activity (for half an hour minimum) which makes oneself slightly breathless. There are slight age-specific differences but also noteworthy regional differences. Practice of sport is clearly interrelated with self-reported depressive symptoms, optimism and weakness. This applies even though some relevant confounders – sex, educational level and citizenship – were introduced into the model. However, no relevant interaction effects with time could be shown. Moreover, direct interrelations commonly led to better fits than models with lagged variables, thus indicating that delayed effects of sport practice on the self-reported psychological complaints are less important. Model variants resulted for specific subgroups, for example, participants with a high vs. low initial activity level. Lack of sport practice is an interesting marker for serious psychological symptoms and mental disorders. The background of this association may differ in different subgroups, and should stimulate further investigations in this area.

Workshop: ASSIP - Attempted Suicide Short Intervention Program. Theory, Practice, and 24 Months Follow-up RCT.

Background: ASSIP is a manualized brief therapy based on a model of suicide as goal-directed action, aimed at establishing a therapeutic alliance in a patient-oriented, collaborative approach. The main goals of the three-session program ASSIP are for patients to understand, from an observer’s position, patterns leading to a suicidal crisis, recognize triggers and warning signs, and to establish individual safety strategies for future suicidal crises. An ongoing therapeutic support is provided with regular letters over 24 months. Method: The study was conducted in a naturalistic setting. 120 Patients were randomly assigned to an intervention group (60 participants) treated with ASSIP combined with follow-up contact through letters, and a control group (60 participants) receiving a single session of clinical assessment. Both groups had treatment as usual. Patients completed a set of psychosocial and clinical questionnaires every six months over a period of 24 months. Results: In the ASSIP group 5 patients made a total of 5 reattempts, compared to 15 patients with 41 reattempts in the control group. The survival analysis yielded a significant difference with a Wald Chi2 of .000003. The ASSIP group had significantly lower suicidal ideation and fewer days of inpatient treatment compared to the control group. Higher scores in the Penn Helping Alliance Questionnaire were associated with lower suicidal ideation during follow-up. Conclusions: ASSIP is a highly effective brief therapy for patients with recent suicide attempts. Forming a strong therapeutic alliance is considered to be a major factor for outcome. ASSIP can be used with minimal training by experienced therapists. An English version of the manual will be published in May 2015.

GetReal in network meta-analysis: a review of the methodology.

Pairwise meta-analysis is an established statistical tool for synthesizing evidence from multiple trials, but it is informative only about the relative efficacy of two specific interventions. The usefulness of pairwise meta-analysis is thus limited in real-life medical practice, where many competing interventions may be available for a certain condition and studies informing some of the pairwise comparisons may be lacking. This commonly encountered scenario has led to the development of network meta-analysis (NMA). In the last decade, several applications, methodological developments, and empirical studies in NMA have been published, and the area is thriving as its relevance to public health is increasingly recognized. This article presents a review of the relevant literature on NMA methodology aiming to pinpoint the developments that have appeared in the field. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Three-year outcomes of Straumann Bone Level SLActive dental implants in daily dental practice: a prospective non-interventional study

OBJECTIVE The aim of this investigation was to evaluate the performance of Straumann Bone Level SLActive implants in various clinical situations in daily dental practice for up to 3 years. METHOD AND MATERIALS This was a prospective, multicenter, non-interventional study in which implants were placed within approved indications in any situation deemed suitable by the treating clinician. No implant placement or loading protocol was specified, and implants were placed according to the routine treatment protocols at each participating center. RESULTS In this analysis, data were available from 342 implants in 233 patients in three countries (USA, Canada, and Switzerland). One or two implants were placed in the majority of patients (70.8% and 19.3%, respectively), mostly in the maxilla (71.3%); almost half (47.7%) were placed in the esthetic zone. Implant placement after 4 to > 16 weeks of healing was preferred in Switzerland (92.0%), while 42.0% of implants were placed immediately in the USA and Canada. A flapless procedure was performed in 25.2% of cases in the USA and Canada, compared to 0.5% in Switzerland. Cumulative implant survival and success rates after 3 years were 97.5% and 93.5%, respectively. CONCLUSION Straumann Bone Level Implants can achieve favorable outcomes and high survival rates after 3 years in daily dental practice. The survival and success rates were comparable with those achieved in formal controlled clinical trials.

Comparison of prasugrel and clopidogrel-treated patients with acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: A propensity score-matched analysis of the Acute Myocardial Infarction in Switzerland (AMIS)-Plus Registry

OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to investigate outcomes of patients treated with prasugrel or clopidogrel after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in a nationwide acute coronary syndrome (ACS) registry. BACKGROUND Prasugrel was found to be superior to clopidogrel in a randomized trial of ACS patients undergoing PCI. However, little is known about its efficacy in everyday practice. METHODS All ACS patients enrolled in the Acute Myocardial Infarction in Switzerland (AMIS)-Plus registry undergoing PCI and being treated with a thienopyridine P2Y12 inhibitor between January 2010-December 2013 were included in this analysis. Patients were stratified according to treatment with prasugrel or clopidogrel and outcomes were compared using propensity score matching. The primary endpoint was a composite of death, recurrent infarction and stroke at hospital discharge. RESULTS Out of 7621 patients, 2891 received prasugrel (38%) and 4730 received clopidogrel (62%). Independent predictors of in-hospital mortality were age, Killip class >2, STEMI, Charlson comorbidity index >1, and resuscitation prior to admission. After propensity score matching (2301 patients per group), the primary endpoint was significantly lower in prasugrel-treated patients (3.0% vs 4.3%; p=0.022) while bleeding events were more frequent (4.1% vs 3.0%; p=0.048). In-hospital mortality was significantly reduced (1.8% vs 3.1%; p=0.004), but no significant differences were observed in rates of recurrent infarction (0.8% vs 0.7%; p=1.00) or stroke (0.5% vs 0.6%; p=0.85). In a predefined subset of matched patients with one-year follow-up (n=1226), mortality between discharge and one year was not significantly reduced in prasugrel-treated patients (1.3% vs 1.9%, p=0.38). CONCLUSIONS In everyday practice in Switzerland, prasugrel is predominantly used in younger patients with STEMI undergoing primary PCI. A propensity score-matched analysis suggests a mortality benefit from prasugrel compared with clopidogrel in these patients.

Crafting strategy : embodied metaphors in practice

The rationalist approach to strategizing emphasizes analytical and convergent thinking. Without denying the importance of this approach, this book argues that strategists must learn to complement it with a more creative approach to strategizing that emphasizes synthetic and divergent ways of thinking. The theoretical underpinnings of this approach include embodied realism, interpretivism, practice theory, theory of play, design thinking, as well as discursive approaches such as metaphorical analysis, narrative analysis, dialogical analysis and hermeneutics. The book includes in-depth discussions of these theories and shows how they can be put into practice by presenting detailed analyses of embodied metaphors built by groups of agents with step-by-step explanations of how this process can be implemented and facilitated. The link between theory and practice is further supported by the inclusion of several vignettes that describe how this approach has been successfully employed in a number of organizations, including BASF and UNICEF