Cascading climate effects and related ecological consequences during past centuries

The interface between climate and ecosystem structure and function is incompletely understood, partly because few ecological records start before the recent warming phase. Here, we analyse an exceptional 100-yr long record of the great tit (Parus major) population in Switzerland in relation to climate and habitat phenology. Using structural equation analysis, we demonstrate an uninterrupted cascade of significant influences of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (North-Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, and North-sea – Caspian Pattern, NCP) on habitat and breeding phenology, and further on fitness-relevant life history traits within great tit populations. We then apply the relationships of this analysis to reconstruct the circulation-driven component of fluctuations in great tit breeding phenology and productivity on the basis of new seasonal NAO and NCP indices back to 1500 AD. According to the structural equation model, the multi-decadal oscillation of the atmospheric circulation likely led to substantial variation in habitat phenology, productivity and consequently, tit population fluctuations with minima during the "Maunder Minimum" (∼ 1650–1720) and the Little Ice Age Type Event I (1810–1850). The warming since 1975 was not only related with a quick shift towards earlier breeding, but also with the highest productivity since 1500, and thus, the impact of the NAO and NCP has contributed to an unprecedented increase of the population. A verification of the structural equation model against two independent data series (1970–2000 and 1750–1900) corroborates that the retrospective model reliably depicts the major long-term NAO/NCP impact on ecosystem parameters. The results suggest a complex cascade of climate effects beginning at a global scale and ending at the level of individual life histories. This sheds light on how large-scale climate conditions substantially affect major life history parameters within a population, and thus influence key ecosystem parameters at the scale of centuries.

Radiocarbon analysis in an Alpine ice core: Record of anthropogenic and biogenic contributions to carbonaceous Radiocarbon analysis in an Alpine ice core: Record of anthropogenic and biogenic contributions to carbonaceous aerosols in the past (1650-1940)

Long-term concentration records of carbonaceous particles (CP) are of increasing interest in climate research due to their not yet completely understood effects on climate. Nevertheless, only poor data on their concentrations and sources before the 20th century are available. We present a first long-term record of organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) concentrations – the two main fractions of CP – along with the corresponding fraction of modern carbon (fM) derived from radiocarbon (14C) analysis in ice. This allows a distinction and quantification of natural (biogenic) and anthropogenic (fossil) sources in the past. CP were extracted from an ice archive, with resulting carbon quantities in the microgram range. Analysis of 14C by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) was therefore highly demanding. We analysed 33 samples of 0.4 to 1 kg ice from a 150.5 m long ice core retrieved at Fiescherhorn glacier in December 2002 (46°33'3.2" N, 08°04'0.4" E; 3900 m a.s.l.). Samples were taken from bedrock up to the firn/ice transition, covering the time period 1650–1940 and thus the transition from the pre-industrial to the industrial era. Before ~1850, OC was approaching a purely biogenic origin with a mean concentration of 24 μg kg−1 and a standard deviation of 7 μg kg−1. In 1940, OC concentration was about a factor of 3 higher than this biogenic background, almost half of it originating from anthropogenic sources, i.e. from combustion of fossil fuels. The biogenic EC concentration was nearly constant over the examined time period with 6 μg kg−1 and a standard deviation of 1 μg kg−1. In 1940, the additional anthropogenic input of atmospheric EC was about 50 μg kg−1.