Modeling of temperature and turbidity in a natural lake and a reservoir connected by pumped-storage operations

Pumped-storage (PS) systems are used to store electric energy as potential energy for release during peak demand. We investigate the impacts of a planned 1000 MW PS scheme connecting Lago Bianco with Lago di Poschiavo (Switzerland) on temperature and particle mass concentration in both basins. The upper (turbid) basin is a reservoir receiving large amounts of fine particles from the partially glaciated watershed, while the lower basin is a much clearer natural lake. Stratification, temperature and particle concentrations in the two basins were simulated with and without PS for four different hydrological conditions and 27 years of meteorological forcing using the software CE-QUAL-W2. The simulations showed that the PS operations lead to an increase in temperature in both basins during most of the year. The increase is most pronounced (up to 4°C) in the upper hypolimnion of the natural lake toward the end of summer stratification and is partially due to frictional losses in the penstocks, pumps and turbines. The remainder of the warming is from intense coupling to the atmosphere while water resides in the shallower upper reservoir. These impacts are most pronounced during warm and dry years, when the upper reservoir is strongly heated and the effects are least concealed by floods. The exchange of water between the two basins relocates particles from the upper reservoir to the lower lake, where they accumulate during summer in the upper hypolimnion (10 to 20 mg L−1) but also to some extent decrease light availability in the trophic surface layer.

Dynamics of Shifting Cultivation Landscapes in Northern Lao PDR Between 2000 and 2009 Based on an Analysis of MODIS Time Series and Landsat Images

The rotational nature of shifting cultivation poses several challenges to its detection by remote sensing. Consequently, there is a lack of spatial data on the dynamics of shifting cultivation landscapes on a regional, i.e. sub-national, or national level. We present an approach based on a time series of Landsat and MODIS data and landscape metrics to delineate the dynamics of shifting cultivation landscapes. Our results reveal that shifting cultivation is a land use system still widely and dynamically utilized in northern Laos. While there is an overall reduction in the areas dominated by shifting cultivation, some regions also show an expansion. A review of relevant reports and articles indicates that policies tend to lead to a reduction while market forces can result in both expansion and reduction. For a better understanding of the different factors affecting shifting cultivation landscapes in Laos, further research should focus on spatially explicit analyses.

Correspondence establishment in statistical modeling of shapes with arbitrary topology

Correspondence establishment is a key step in statistical shape model building. There are several automated methods for solving this problem in 3D, but they usually can only handle objects with simple topology, like that of a sphere or a disc. We propose an extension to correspondence establishment over a population based on the optimization of the minimal description length function, allowing considering objects with arbitrary topology. Instead of using a fixed structure of kernel placement on a sphere for the systematic manipulation of point landmark positions, we rely on an adaptive, hierarchical organization of surface patches. This hierarchy can be built on surfaces of arbitrary topology and the resulting patches are used as a basis for a consistent, multi-scale modification of the surfaces' parameterization, based on point distribution models. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated on synthetic models with different topologies.

Modeling of transfer kinetics at the serum-cerebrospinal fluid barrier in rabbits with experimental meningitis: application to grepafloxacin

The goals of the present study were to model the population kinetics of in vivo influx and efflux processes of grepafloxacin at the serum-cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) barrier and to propose a simulation-based approach to optimize the design of dose-finding trials in the meningitis rabbit model. Twenty-nine rabbits with pneumococcal meningitis receiving grepafloxacin at 15 mg/kg of body weight (intravenous administration at 0 h), 30 mg/kg (at 0 h), or 50 mg/kg twice (at 0 and 4 h) were studied. A three-compartment population pharmacokinetic model was fit to the data with the program NONMEM (Nonlinear Mixed Effects Modeling). Passive diffusion clearance (CL(diff)) and active efflux clearance (CL(active)) are transfer kinetic modeling parameters. Influx clearance is assumed to be equal to CL(diff), and efflux clearance is the sum of CL(diff), CL(active), and bulk flow clearance (CL(bulk)). The average influx clearance for the population was 0.0055 ml/min (interindividual variability, 17%). Passive diffusion clearance was greater in rabbits receiving grepafloxacin at 15 mg/kg than in those treated with higher doses (0.0088 versus 0.0034 ml/min). Assuming a CL(bulk) of 0.01 ml/min, CL(active) was estimated to be 0.017 ml/min (11%), and clearance by total efflux was estimated to be 0.032 ml/min. The population kinetic model allows not only to quantify in vivo efflux and influx mechanisms at the serum-CSF barrier but also to analyze the effects of different dose regimens on transfer kinetic parameters in the rabbit meningitis model. The modeling-based approach also provides a tool for the simulation and prediction of various outcomes in which researchers might be interested, which is of great potential in designing dose-finding trials.

Effect of echo time pair selection on quantitative analysis for adrenal tumor characterization with in-phase and opposed-phase MR imaging: initial experience

PURPOSE: To determine the effect of two pairs of echo times (TEs) for in-phase (IP) and opposed-phase (OP) 3.0-T magnetic resonance (MR) imaging on (a) quantitative analysis prospectively in a phantom study and (b) diagnostic accuracy retrospectively in a clinical study of adrenal tumors, with use of various reference standards in the clinical study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A fat-saline phantom was used to perform IP and OP 3.0-T MR imaging for various fat fractions. The institutional review board approved this HIPAA-compliant study, with waiver of informed consent. Single-breath-hold IP and OP 3.0-T MR images in 21 patients (14 women, seven men; mean age, 63 years) with 23 adrenal tumors (16 adenomas, six metastases, one adrenocortical carcinoma) were reviewed. The MR protocol involved two acquisition schemes: In scheme A, the first OP echo (approximately 1.5-msec TE) and the second IP echo (approximately 4.9-msec TE) were acquired. In scheme B, the first IP echo (approximately 2.4-msec TE) and the third OP echo (approximately 5.8-msec TE) were acquired. Quantitative analysis was performed, and analysis of variance was used to test for differences between adenomas and nonadenomas. RESULTS: In the phantom study, scheme B did not enable discrimination among voxels that had small amounts of fat. In the clinical study, no overlap in signal intensity (SI) index values between adenomas and nonadenomas was seen (P < .05) with scheme A. However, with scheme B, no overlap in the adrenal gland SI-to-liver SI ratio between adenomas and nonadenomas was seen (P < .05). With scheme B, no overlap in adrenal gland SI index-to-liver SI index ratio between adenomas and nonadenomas was seen (P < .05). CONCLUSION: This initial experience indicates SI index is the most reliable parameter for characterization of adrenal tumors with 3.0-T MR imaging when obtaining OP echo before IP echo. When acquiring IP echo before OP echo, however, nonadenomas can be mistaken as adenomas with use of the SI index value.

Modeling of C/EBPalpha mutant acute myeloid leukemia reveals a common expression signature of committed myeloid leukemia-initiating cells

Mutations in the CEBPA gene are present in 7%-10% of human patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). However, no genetic models exist that demonstrate their etiological relevance. To mimic the most common mutations affecting CEBPA-that is, those leading to loss of the 42 kDa C/EBPalpha isoform (p42) while retaining the 30kDa isoform (p30)-we modified the mouse Cebpa locus to express only p30. p30 supported the formation of granulocyte-macrophage progenitors. However, p42 was required for control of myeloid progenitor proliferation, and p42-deficient mice developed AML with complete penetrance. p42-deficient leukemia could be transferred by a Mac1+c-Kit+ population that gave rise only to myeloid cells in recipient mice. Expression profiling of this population against normal Mac1+c-Kit+ progenitors revealed a signature shared with MLL-AF9-transformed AML.

On the modeling of drug induced respiratory depression in the non-steady-state

The ability of anesthetic agents to provide adequate analgesia and sedation is limited by the ventilatory depression associated with overdosing in spontaneously breathing patients. Therefore, quantitation of drug induced ventilatory depression is a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic problem relevant to the practice of anesthesia. Although several studies describe the effect of respiratory depressant drugs on isolated endpoints, an integrated description of drug induced respiratory depression with parameters identifiable from clinically available data is not available. This study proposes a physiological model of CO2 disposition, ventilatory regulation, and the effects of anesthetic agents on the control of breathing. The predictive performance of the model is evaluated through simulations aimed at reproducing experimental observations of drug induced hypercarbia and hypoventilation associated with intravenous administration of a fast-onset, highly potent anesthetic mu agonist (including previously unpublished experimental data determined after administration of 1 mg alfentanil bolus). The proposed model structure has substantial descriptive capability and can provide clinically relevant predictions of respiratory inhibition in the non-steady-state to enhance safety of drug delivery in the anesthetic practice.

Multi-parametric classification of Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment: the impact of quantitative magnetization transfer MR imaging

Multi-parametric and quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) techniques have come into the focus of interest, both as a research and diagnostic modality for the evaluation of patients suffering from mild cognitive decline and overt dementia. In this study we address the question, if disease related quantitative magnetization transfer effects (qMT) within the intra- and extracellular matrices of the hippocampus may aid in the differentiation between clinically diagnosed patients with Alzheimer disease (AD), patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and healthy controls. We evaluated 22 patients with AD (n=12) and MCI (n=10) and 22 healthy elderly (n=12) and younger (n=10) controls with multi-parametric MRI. Neuropsychological testing was performed in patients and elderly controls (n=34). In order to quantify the qMT effects, the absorption spectrum was sampled at relevant off-resonance frequencies. The qMT-parameters were calculated according to a two-pool spin-bath model including the T1- and T2 relaxation parameters of the free pool, determined in separate experiments. Histograms (fixed bin-size) of the normalized qMT-parameter values (z-scores) within the anterior and posterior hippocampus (hippocampal head and body) were subjected to a fuzzy-c-means classification algorithm with downstreamed PCA projection. The within-cluster sums of point-to-centroid distances were used to examine the effects of qMT- and diffusion anisotropy parameters on the discrimination of healthy volunteers, patients with Alzheimer and MCIs. The qMT-parameters T2(r) (T2 of the restricted pool) and F (fractional pool size) differentiated between the three groups (control, MCI and AD) in the anterior hippocampus. In our cohort, the MT ratio, as proposed in previous reports, did not differentiate between MCI and AD or healthy controls and MCI, but between healthy controls and AD.

Response surface modeling of the interaction between propofol and sevoflurane

BACKGROUND: Propofol and sevoflurane display additivity for gamma-aminobutyric acid receptor activation, loss of consciousness, and tolerance of skin incision. Information about their interaction regarding electroencephalographic suppression is unavailable. This study examined this interaction as well as the interaction on the probability of tolerance of shake and shout and three noxious stimulations by using a response surface methodology. METHODS: Sixty patients preoperatively received different combined concentrations of propofol (0-12 microg/ml) and sevoflurane (0-3.5 vol.%) according to a crisscross design (274 concentration pairs, 3 to 6 per patient). After having reached pseudo-steady state, the authors recorded bispectral index, state and response entropy and the response to shake and shout, tetanic stimulation, laryngeal mask airway insertion, and laryngoscopy. For the analysis of the probability of tolerance by logistic regression, a Greco interaction model was used. For the separate analysis of bispectral index, state and response entropy suppression, a fractional Emax Greco model was used. All calculations were performed with NONMEM V (GloboMax LLC, Hanover, MD). RESULTS: Additivity was found for all endpoints, the Ce(50, PROP)/Ce(50, SEVO) for bispectral index suppression was 3.68 microg. ml(-1)/ 1.53 vol.%, for tolerance of shake and shout 2.34 microg . ml(-1)/ 1.03 vol.%, tetanic stimulation 5.34 microg . ml(-1)/ 2.11 vol.%, laryngeal mask airway insertion 5.92 microg. ml(-1) / 2.55 vol.%, and laryngoscopy 6.55 microg. ml(-1)/2.83 vol.%. CONCLUSION: For both electroencephalographic suppression and tolerance to stimulation, the interaction of propofol and sevoflurane was identified as additive. The response surface data can be used for more rational dose finding in case of sequential and coadministration of propofol and sevoflurane.