Predicting spike timing of neocortical pyramidal neurons by simple threshold models

Neurons generate spikes reliably with millisecond precision if driven by a fluctuating current--is it then possible to predict the spike timing knowing the input? We determined parameters of an adapting threshold model using data recorded in vitro from 24 layer 5 pyramidal neurons from rat somatosensory cortex, stimulated intracellularly by a fluctuating current simulating synaptic bombardment in vivo. The model generates output spikes whenever the membrane voltage (a filtered version of the input current) reaches a dynamic threshold. We find that for input currents with large fluctuation amplitude, up to 75% of the spike times can be predicted with a precision of +/-2 ms. Some of the intrinsic neuronal unreliability can be accounted for by a noisy threshold mechanism. Our results suggest that, under random current injection into the soma, (i) neuronal behavior in the subthreshold regime can be well approximated by a simple linear filter; and (ii) most of the nonlinearities are captured by a simple threshold process.

Predicting and diagnosing abacavir and nevirapine drug hypersensitivity: from bedside to bench and back again

There is a growing discussion surrounding the issue of personalized approaches to drug prescription based on an individual's genetic makeup. This field of investigation has focused primarily on identifying genetic factors that influence drug metabolism and cellular disposition, thereby contributing to dose-dependent toxicities and/or variable drug efficacy. However, pharmacogenetic approaches have also proved valuable in predicting drug hypersensitivity reactions in selected patient populations, including HIV-infected patients receiving long-term antiretroviral therapy. In this instance, susceptibility has been strongly linked to genetic loci involved in antigen recognition and presentation to the immune system--most notably within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region--consistent with the notion that hypersensitivity reactions represent drug-specific immune responses that are largely dose independent. Here the authors describe their experiences with the development of pharmacogenetic approaches to hypersensitivity reactions associated with abacavir and nevirapine, two commonly prescribed antiretroviral drugs. It is demonstrated that prospective screening tests to identify and exclude individuals with a certain genetic makeup may be largely successful in decreasing or eliminating incidence of these adverse drug reactions in certain populations. This review also explores the broader implications of these findings.

Predicting the risk of hospital admission in older persons--validation of a brief self-administered questionnaire in three European countries

OBJECTIVES: To validate the Probability of Repeated Admission (Pra) questionnaire, a widely used self-administered tool for predicting future healthcare use in older persons, in three European healthcare systems. DESIGN: Prospective study with 1-year follow-up. SETTING: Hamburg, Germany; London, United Kingdom; Canton of Solothurn, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Nine thousand seven hundred thirteen independently living community-dwelling people aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Self-administered eight-item Pra questionnaire at baseline. Self-reported number of hospital admissions and physician visits during 1 year of follow-up. RESULTS: In the combined sample, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.62-0.66) for the prediction of one or more hospital admissions and 0.68 (95% CI=0.66-0.69) for the prediction of more than six physician visits during the following year. AUCs were similar between sites. In comparison, prediction models based on a person's age and sex alone exhibited poor predictive validity (AUC or= 0.5) were 2.3 times as likely (95% CI=2.1-2.6) as low-risk individuals to have a hospital admission, and 2.1 times as likely (95% CI=2.0-2.2) to have more than six physician visits. CONCLUSION: The Pra instrument exhibits good validity for predicting future health service use on a population level in different healthcare settings. Administrative data have shown similar predictive validity, but in practice, such data are often not available. The Pra is likely of high interest to governments and health insurance companies worldwide as a basis for programs aimed at health risk management in older persons.

Predicting perceived vulnerability for breast cancer among women with an average breast cancer risk

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the present study was to investigate predictors of perceived vulnerability for breast cancer in women with an average risk for breast cancer. On the basis of empirical findings that suggested which variables might be associated with perceived vulnerability for breast cancer, we investigated whether knowledge of breast cancer risk factors, cancer worry, intrusions about breast cancer, optimism about not getting cancer and perceived health status have a predictive value for perceived breast cancer vulnerability. DESIGN: In a 3-step approach, we recruited 292 women from the general public in Germany who had neither a family history of breast cancer nor breast cancer themselves. After receiving an initial informational letter about study objectives, the women were interviewed by telephone and then asked to fill in a self-administered questionnaire. METHODS: We used structural equation modelling and hypothesized that each of the included variables has a direct influence on perceived vulnerability for breast cancer. RESULTS: We found a valid model with acceptable fit indices. Optimism about not getting cancer, intrusions about breast cancer and women's perceived health status explained 32% of the variance of perceived vulnerability for breast cancer. Cancer worry and knowledge about breast cancer did not influence perceived vulnerability for breast cancer. CONCLUSION: Perceived vulnerability for breast cancer is associated with health-related variables more than with knowledge about breast cancer risk factors.

Serum markers for predicting pre-eclampsia

Pre-eclampsia, a pregnancy-specific disorder, contributes substantially to perinatal morbidity and mortality of both, mother and newborn. An increasing number of biochemical agents were evaluated as markers for predicting pre-eclampsia. None of them has been proved to be of clinical value yet. Much effort has been put into assessing novel potential markers and their combination with other screening methods such as Doppler sonography. The purpose of this review is to reflect the current knowledge of serum markers for predicting pre-eclampsia. So far, the most promising serum markers are placental protein 13 (PP-13), as well as soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), placental growth factor (PIGF) and soluble endoglin (sEng). These markers allow screening at a relatively early stage and, most importantly, show relatively high predictive values and improved diagnostic performance if combined with first trimester Doppler sonography. Large-scale prospective studies, assessing these markers, are important to justify their clinical use in view of early intervention to prevent pre-eclampsia in the future.

Predicting asthma control and exacerbations: chronic asthma as a complex dynamic model

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Predicting asthma episodes is notoriously difficult but has potentially significant consequences for the individual, as well as for healthcare services. The purpose of this review is to describe recent insights into the prediction of acute asthma episodes in relation to classical clinical, functional or inflammatory variables, as well as present a new concept for evaluating asthma as a dynamically regulated homeokinetic system. RECENT FINDINGS: Risk prediction for asthma episodes or relapse has been attempted using clinical scoring systems, considerations of environmental factors and lung function, as well as inflammatory and immunological markers in induced sputum or exhaled air, and these are summarized here. We have recently proposed that newer mathematical methods derived from statistical physics may be used to understand the complexity of asthma as a homeokinetic, dynamic system consisting of a network comprising multiple components, and also to assess the risk for future asthma episodes based on fluctuation analysis of long time series of lung function. SUMMARY: Apart from the classical analysis of risk factor and functional parameters, this new approach may be used to assess asthma control and treatment effects in the individual as well as in future research trials.

A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men

BACKGROUND: Many HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) experience metabolic complications including dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance, which may increase their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We developed a prognostic model for CHD tailored to the changes in risk factors observed in patients starting HAART. METHODS: Data from five cohort studies (British Regional Heart Study, Caerphilly and Speedwell Studies, Framingham Offspring Study, Whitehall II) on 13,100 men aged 40-70 and 114,443 years of follow up were used. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction or death from CHD. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion; generalizability across cohorts was examined using internal-external cross-validation. RESULTS: A parametric model based on the Gompertz distribution generalized best. Variables included in the model were systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, diabetes mellitus, body mass index and smoking status. Compared with patients not on HAART, the estimated CHD hazard ratio (HR) for patients on HAART was 1.46 (95% CI 1.15-1.86) for moderate and 2.48 (95% CI 1.76-3.51) for severe metabolic complications. CONCLUSIONS: The change in the risk of CHD in HIV-infected men starting HAART can be estimated based on typical changes in risk factors, assuming that HRs estimated using data from non-infected men are applicable to HIV-infected men. Based on this model the risk of CHD is likely to increase, but increases may often be modest, and could be offset by lifestyle changes.

The role of the number of uninvolved lymph nodes in predicting locoregional recurrence in breast cancer

PURPOSE: To identify groups of early breast cancer patients with substantial risk (10-year risk > 20%) for locoregional failure (LRF) who might benefit from postmastectomy radiotherapy (RT). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Prognostic factors for LRF were evaluated among 6,660 patients (2,588 node-negative patients, 4,072 node-positive patients) in International Breast Cancer Study Group Trials I to IX treated with chemotherapy and/or endocrine therapy, and observed for a median of 14 years. In total, 1,251 LRFs were detected. All patients were treated with mastectomy without RT. RESULTS: No group with 10-year LRF risk exceeding 20% was found among patients with node-negative disease. Among patients with node-positive breast cancer, increasing numbers of uninvolved nodes were significantly associated with decreased risk of LRF, even after adjustment for other prognostic factors. The highest quartile of uninvolved nodes was compared with the lowest quartile. Among premenopausal patients, LRF risk was decreased by 35% (P = .0010); among postmenopausal patients, LRF risk was decreased by 46% (P < .0001). The 10-year cumulative incidence of LRF was 20% among patients with one to three involved lymph nodes and fewer than 10 uninvolved nodes. Age younger than 40 years and vessel invasion were also associated significantly with increased risk. Among patients with node-positive disease, overall survival was significantly greater in those with higher numbers of uninvolved nodes examined (P < .0001). CONCLUSION: Patients with one to three involved nodes and a low number of uninvolved nodes, vessel invasion, or young age have an increased risk of LRF and may be candidates for a similar treatment as those with at least four lymph node metastases.