90 resultados para Objective risk
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OBJECTIVE: Excess body weight, defined by body mass index (BMI), may increase the risk of colorectal cancer. As a prerequisite to the determination of lifestyle attributable risks, we undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective observational studies to quantify colorectal cancer risk associated with increased BMI and explore for differences by gender, sub-site and study characteristics. METHOD: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE (to December 2007), and other sources, selecting reports based on strict inclusion criteria. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions of study-specific incremental estimates were performed to determine the risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with a 5 kg/m(2) increase in BMI. RESULTS: We analysed 29 datasets from 28 articles, including 67,361 incident cases. Higher BMI was associated with colon (RR 1.24, 95% CIs: 1.20-1.28) and rectal (1.09, 1.05-1.14) cancers in men, and with colon cancer (1.09, 1.04-1.12) in women. Associations were stronger in men than in women for colon (P < 0.001) and rectal (P = 0.005) cancers. Associations were generally consistent across geographic populations. Study characteristics and adjustments accounted for only moderate variations of associations. CONCLUSION: Increasing BMI is associated with a modest increased risk of developing colon and rectal cancers, but this modest risk may translate to large attributable proportions in high-prevalence obese populations. Inter-gender differences point to potentially important mechanistic differences, which merit further research.
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OBJECTIVE: To analyse risk factors in alpine skiing. DESIGN: A controlled multicentre survey of injured and non-injured alpine skiers. SETTING: One tertiary and two secondary trauma centres in Bern, Switzerland. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All injured skiers admitted from November 2007 to April 2008 were analysed using a completed questionnaire incorporating 15 parameters. The same questionnaire was distributed to non-injured controls. Multiple logistic regression was performed. Patterns of combined risk factors were calculated by inference trees. A total of 782 patients and 496 controls were interviewed. RESULTS: Parameters that were significant for the patients were: high readiness for risk (p = 0.0365, OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.04 to 3.27); low readiness for speed (p = 0.0008, OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.60); no aggressive behaviour on slopes (p<0.0001, OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.37); new skiing equipment (p = 0.0228, OR 59, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.93); warm-up performed (p = 0.0015, OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.25 to 2.57); old snow compared with fresh snow (p = 0.0155, OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.80); old snow compared with artificial snow (p = 0.0037, OR 0.21, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.60); powder snow compared with slushy snow (p = 0.0035, OR 0.25, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.63); drug consumption (p = 0.0044, OR 5.92, 95% CI 1.74 to 20.11); and alcohol abstinence (p<0.0001, OR 0.14, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.34). Three groups at risk were detected: (1) warm-up 3-12 min, visual analogue scale (VAS)(speed) >4 and bad weather/visibility; (2) VAS(speed) 4-7, icy slopes and not wearing a helmet; (3) warm-up >12 min and new skiing equipment. CONCLUSIONS: Low speed, high readiness for risk, new skiing equipment, old and powder snow, and drug consumption are significant risk factors when skiing. Future work should aim to identify more precisely specific groups at risk and develop recommendations--for example, a snow weather index at valley stations.
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The objective of this study was to describe the all-cause mortality of participants in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort compared to the Swiss general population. Patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection attending secondary and tertiary care centres in Switzerland. One thousand six hundred and forty-five patients with HCV infection were followed up for a mean of over 2 years. We calculated all-cause standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using age, sex and calendar year-specific Swiss all-cause mortality rates. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to model the variability of SMR by cirrhotic status, HCV genotype, infection with hepatitis B virus or HIV, injection drug use and alcohol intake. Sixty-one deaths were recorded out of 1645 participants. The crude all-cause SMR was 4.5 (95% CI: 3.5-5.8). Patients co-infected with HIV had a crude SMR of 20 (95% CI: 11.1-36.1). The SMR of 1.1 (95% CI: 0.63-2.03) for patients who were not cirrhotic, not infected with HBV or HIV, did not inject drugs, were not heavy alcohol consumers (
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Most recently discussion about the optimal treatment for different subsets of patients suffering from coronary artery disease has re-emerged, mainly because of the uncertainty caused by doctors and patients regarding the phenomenon of unpredictable early and late stent thrombosis. Surgical revascularization using multiple arterial bypass grafts has repeatedly proven its superiority compared to percutaneous intervention techniques, especially in patients suffering from left main stem disease and coronary 3-vessels disease. Several prospective randomized multicenter studies comparing early and mid-term results following PCI and CABG have been really restrictive, with respect to patient enrollment, with less than 5% of all patients treated during the same time period been enrolled. Coronary artery bypass grafting allows the most complete revascularization in one session, because all target coronary vessels larger than 1 mm can be bypassed in their distal segments. Once the patient has been turn-off for surgery, surgeons have to consider the most complete arterial revascularization in order to decrease the long-term necessity for re-revascularization; for instance patency rate of the left internal thoracic artery grafted to the distal part left anterior descending artery may be as high as 90-95% after 10 to 15 years. Early mortality following isolated CABG operation has been as low as 0.6 to 1% in the most recent period (reports from the University Hospital Berne and the University Hospital of Zurich); beside these excellent results, the CABG option seems to be less expensive than PCI with time, since the necessity for additional PCI is rather high following initial PCI, and the price of stent devices is still very high, particularly in Switzerland. Patients, insurance and experts in health care should be better and more honestly informed concerning the risk and costs of PCI and CABG procedures as well as about the much higher rate of subsequent interventions following PCI. Team approach for all patients in whom both options could be offered seems mandatory to avoid unbalanced information of the patients. Looking at the recent developments in transcatheter valve treatments, the revival of cardiological-cardiosurgical conferences seems to a good option to optimize the cooperation between the two medical specialties: cardiology and cardiac surgery.
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OBJECTIVE: This study developed percentile curves for anthropometric (waist circumference) and cardiovascular (lipid profile) risk factors for US children and adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A representative sample of US children and adolescents from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1988 to 1994 (NHANES III) and the current national series (NHANES 1999-2006) were combined. Percentile curves were constructed, nationally weighted, and smoothed using the Lambda, Mu, and Sigma method. The percentile curves included age- and sex-specific percentile values that correspond with and transition into the adult abnormal cut-off values for each of these anthropometric and cardiovascular components. To increase the sample size, a second series of percentile curves was also created from the combination of the 2 NHANES databases, along with cross-sectional data from the Bogalusa Heart Study, the Muscatine Study, the Fels Longitudinal Study and the Princeton Lipid Research Clinics Study. RESULTS: These analyses resulted in a series of growth curves for waist circumference, total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol from a combination of pediatric data sets. The cut-off for abnormal waist circumference in adult males (102 cm) was equivalent to the 94(th) percentile line in 18-year-olds, and the cut-off in adult females (88 cm) was equivalent to the 84(th) percentile line in 18-year-olds. Triglycerides were found to have a bimodal pattern among females, with an initial peak at age 11 and a second at age 20; the curve for males increased steadily with age. The HDL curve for females was relatively flat, but the male curve declined starting at age 9 years. Similar curves for total and LDL cholesterol were constructed for both males and females. When data from the additional child studies were added to the national data, there was little difference in their patterns or rates of change from year to year. CONCLUSIONS: These curves represent waist and lipid percentiles for US children and adolescents, with identification of values that transition to adult abnormalities. They could be used conditionally for both epidemiological and possibly clinical applications, although they need to be validated against longitudinal data.
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Meat and meat products can be contaminated with different species of bacteria resistant to various antimicrobials. The human health risk of a type of meat or meat product carry by emerging antimicrobial resistance depends on (i) the prevalence of contamination with resistant bacteria, (ii) the human health consequences of an infection with a specific bacterium resistant to a specific antimicrobial and (iii) the consumption volume of a specific product. The objective of this study was to compare the risk for consumers arising from their exposure to antibiotic resistant bacteria from meat of four different types (chicken, pork, beef and veal), distributed in four different product categories (fresh meat, frozen meat, dried raw meat products and heat-treated meat products). A semi-quantitative risk assessment model, evaluating each food chain step, was built in order to get an estimated score for the prevalence of Campylobacter spp., Enterococcus spp. and Escherichia coli in each product category. To assess human health impact, nine combinations of bacterial species and antimicrobial agents were considered based on a published risk profile. The combination of the prevalence at retail, the human health impact and the amount of meat or product consumed, provided the relative proportion of total risk attributed to each category of product, resulting in a high, medium or low human health risk. According to the results of the model, chicken (mostly fresh and frozen meat) contributed 6.7% of the overall risk in the highest category and pork (mostly fresh meat and dried raw meat products) contributed 4.0%. The contribution of beef and veal was of 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. The results were tested and discussed for single parameter changes of the model. This risk assessment was a useful tool for targeting antimicrobial resistance monitoring to those meat product categories where the expected risk for public health was greater.
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Background: In contrast with established evidence linking high doses of ionizing radiation with childhood cancer, research on low-dose ionizing radiation and childhood cancer has produced inconsistent results. Objective: We investigated the association between domestic radon exposure and childhood cancers, particularly leukemia and central nervous system (CNS) tumors. Methods: We conducted a nationwide census-based cohort study including all children < 16 years of age living in Switzerland on 5 December 2000, the date of the 2000 census. Follow-up lasted until the date of diagnosis, death, emigration, a child’s 16th birthday, or 31 December 2008. Domestic radon levels were estimated for each individual home address using a model developed and validated based on approximately 45,000 measurements taken throughout Switzerland. Data were analyzed with Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for child age, child sex, birth order, parents’ socioeconomic status, environmental gamma radiation, and period effects. Results: In total, 997 childhood cancer cases were included in the study. Compared with children exposed to a radon concentration below the median (< 77.7 Bq/m3), adjusted hazard ratios for children with exposure ≥ the 90th percentile (≥ 139.9 Bq/m3) were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.74, 1.16) for all cancers, 0.95 (95% CI: 0.63, 1.43) for all leukemias, 0.90 (95% CI: 0.56, 1.43) for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, and 1.05 (95% CI: 0.68, 1.61) for CNS tumors. Conclusions: We did not find evidence that domestic radon exposure is associated with childhood cancer, despite relatively high radon levels in Switzerland.
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OBJECTIVE Thermal Nd:YAG laser energy is well known for the purpose of blood coagulation. However, little is known about the bleeding frequency following laser-assisted oral surgery in patients on coumarin drugs. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to compare retrospectively the frequency of bleeding complications following Nd:YAG laserassisted versus conventional local coagulation of blood in oral surgery. METHOD AND MATERIALS In October 2002, minor oral surgical interventions were found to be indicated in a total of 45 cardiac risk patients. In Group 1, blood coagulation was yielded in 24 patients with a Nd:YAG laser system, whereas in Group 2, treatment was performed in 21 patients with conventional means of local hemostasis. All therapies were performed continuing anticoagulant therapy between November 2002 and March 2003. Clinical data were recorded retrospectively from patient charts in May 2007. RESULTS In both Groups 1 and 2, a total of two bleeding complications were recorded. However, local re-interventions were sufficient for local hemostasis. CONCLUSION These results indicate that Nd:YAG laser-assisted local hemostasis was not able to prevent bleeding complications completely. Within the limitations of this retrospective study it was concluded that in patients with anticoagulant treatment undergoing minor oral surgery, Nd:YAG laser-assisted local hemostasis is not superior to conventional methods of blood coagulation with respect to the frequency of bleeding complications.
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Calf losses (CL, mortality and unwanted early slaughter) in veal production are of great economic importance and an indicator of welfare. The objective of the present study was to evaluate CL and the causes of death on farms with a specific animal welfare standard (SAW) which exceeds the Swiss statutory regulations. Risk factors for CL were identified based on information about management, housing, feeding, and medication. In total, 74 production cohorts (2783 calves) of 15 farms were investigated. CL was 3.6%, the main causes of death were digestive disorders (52%), followed by respiratory diseases (28%). Factors significantly associated with an increased risk for CL were a higher number of individual daily doses of antibiotics (DDA), insufficient wind deflection in winter, and male gender. For administration of antibiotics to all calves of the cohort, a DDA of 14-21 was associated with a decreased risk for CL compared to a DDA of 7-13 days.
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In all European Union countries, chemical residues are required to be routinely monitored in meat. Good farming and veterinary practice can prevent the contamination of meat with pharmaceutical substances, resulting in a low detection of drug residues through random sampling. An alternative approach is to target-monitor farms suspected of treating their animals with antimicrobials. The objective of this project was to assess, using a stochastic model, the efficiency of these two sampling strategies. The model integrated data on Swiss livestock as well as expert opinion and results from studies conducted in Switzerland. Risk-based sampling showed an increase in detection efficiency of up to 100% depending on the prevalence of contaminated herds. Sensitivity analysis of this model showed the importance of the accuracy of prior assumptions for conducting risk-based sampling. The resources gained by changing from random to risk-based sampling should be transferred to improving the quality of prior information.
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OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to assess the association between frailty and risk for heart failure (HF) in older adults. BACKGROUND Frailty is common in the elderly and is associated with adverse health outcomes. Impact of frailty on HF risk is not known. METHODS We assessed the association between frailty, using the Health ABC Short Physical Performance Battery (HABC Battery) and the Gill index, and incident HF in 2825 participants aged 70 to 79 years. RESULTS Mean age of participants was 74 ± 3 years; 48% were men and 59% were white. During a median follow up of 11.4 (7.1-11.7) years, 466 participants developed HF. Compared to non-frail participants, moderate (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.08-1.71) and severe frailty (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.02-3.47) by Gill index was associated with a higher risk for HF. HABC Battery score was linearly associated with HF risk after adjusting for the Health ABC HF Model (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.13-1.36 per SD decrease in score) and remained significant when controlled for death as a competing risk (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.00-1.55). Results were comparable across age, sex, and race, and in sub-groups based on diabetes mellitus or cardiovascular disease at baseline. Addition of HABC Battery scores to the Health ABC HF Risk Model improved discrimination (change in C-index, 0.014; 95% CI 0.018-0.010) and appropriately reclassified 13.4% (net-reclassification-improvement 0.073, 95% CI 0.021-0.125; P = .006) of participants (8.3% who developed HF and 5.1% who did not). CONCLUSIONS Frailty is independently associated with risk of HF in older adults.
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OBJECTIVE To examine the degree to which use of β blockers, statins, and diuretics in patients with impaired glucose tolerance and other cardiovascular risk factors is associated with new onset diabetes. DESIGN Reanalysis of data from the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) trial. SETTING NAVIGATOR trial. PARTICIPANTS Patients who at baseline (enrolment) were treatment naïve to β blockers (n=5640), diuretics (n=6346), statins (n=6146), and calcium channel blockers (n=6294). Use of calcium channel blocker was used as a metabolically neutral control. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Development of new onset diabetes diagnosed by standard plasma glucose level in all participants and confirmed with glucose tolerance testing within 12 weeks after the increased glucose value was recorded. The relation between each treatment and new onset diabetes was evaluated using marginal structural models for causal inference, to account for time dependent confounding in treatment assignment. RESULTS During the median five years of follow-up, β blockers were started in 915 (16.2%) patients, diuretics in 1316 (20.7%), statins in 1353 (22.0%), and calcium channel blockers in 1171 (18.6%). After adjusting for baseline characteristics and time varying confounders, diuretics and statins were both associated with an increased risk of new onset diabetes (hazard ratio 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.44, and 1.32, 1.14 to 1.48, respectively), whereas β blockers and calcium channel blockers were not associated with new onset diabetes (1.10, 0.92 to 1.31, and 0.95, 0.79 to 1.13, respectively). CONCLUSIONS Among people with impaired glucose tolerance and other cardiovascular risk factors and with serial glucose measurements, diuretics and statins were associated with an increased risk of new onset diabetes, whereas the effect of β blockers was non-significant.
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The objective of this study was to evaluate risk factors associated with foot lesions and lameness in Swiss dairy cows. Potential risk factors were recorded by means of examination of 1'449 Swiss cows and the management systems of 78 farms during routine claw-trimming, and during personal interviews with the associated farmers. Statistical analysis of animal-based and herd level risk factors were performed using multivariate logistic regression models. The risk of being lame was increased in cows affected by digital dermatitis complex, heel-horn erosion, interdigital hyperplasia, Rusterholz' sole ulcer, deep laceration, double sole and severe hemorrhages. Cleanliness, BCS, affection with other foot lesions, breed, importance of claw health to the farmer, frequency of routine claw-trimming, producing according to the guidelines of the welfare label program RAUS, and silage feeding were shown to be associated with the occurrence of some of the evaluated foot lesions and lameness. The identified risk factors may help to improve management and the situation of lameness and claw health in dairy cows in Switzerland and other alpine areas with similar housing and pasturing systems.
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OBJECTIVE To determine the frequency of and risk factors for complications associated with casts in horses. DESIGN Multicenter retrospective case series. ANIMALS 398 horses with a half-limb or full-limb cast treated at 1 of 4 hospitals. PROCEDURES Data collected from medical records included age, breed, sex, injury, limb affected, time from injury to hospital admission, surgical procedure performed, type of cast (bandage cast [BC; fiberglass tape applied over a bandage] or traditional cast [TC; fiberglass tape applied over polyurethane resin-impregnated foam]), limb position in cast (flexed, neutral, or extended), and complications. Risk factors for cast complications were identified via multiple logistic regression. RESULTS Cast complications were detected in 197 of 398 (49%) horses (18/53 [34%] horses with a BC and 179/345 [52%] horses with a TC). Of the 197 horses with complications, 152 (77%) had clinical signs of complications prior to cast removal; the most common clinical signs were increased lameness severity and visibly detectable soft tissue damage Cast sores were the most common complication (179/398 [45%] horses). Casts broke for 20 (5%) horses. Three (0.8%) horses developed a bone fracture attributable to casting Median time to detection of complications was 12 days and 8 days for horses with TCs and BCs, respectively. Complications developed in 71%, 48%, and 47% of horses with the casted limb in a flexed, neutral, and extended position, respectively. For horses with TCs, hospital, limb position in the cast, and sex were significant risk factors for development of cast complications. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results indicated that 49% of horses with a cast developed cast complications.
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OBJECTIVE Cognitive impairments are regarded as a core component of schizophrenia. However, the cognitive dimension of psychosis is hardly considered by ultra-high risk (UHR) criteria. Therefore, we studied whether the combination of symptomatic UHR criteria and the basic symptom criterion "cognitive disturbances" (COGDIS) is superior in predicting first-episode psychosis. METHOD In a naturalistic 48-month follow-up study, the conversion rate to first-episode psychosis was studied in 246 outpatients of an early detection of psychosis service (FETZ); thereby, the association between conversion, and the combined and singular use of UHR criteria and COGDIS was compared. RESULTS Patients that met UHR criteria and COGDIS (n=127) at baseline had a significantly higher risk of conversion (hr=0.66 at month 48) and a shorter time to conversion than patients that met only UHR criteria (n=37; hr=0.28) or only COGDIS (n=30; hr=0.23). Furthermore, the risk of conversion was higher for the combined criteria than for UHR criteria (n=164; hr=0.56 at month 48) and COGDIS (n=158; hr=0.56 at month 48) when considered irrespective of each other. CONCLUSIONS Our findings support the merits of considering both COGDIS and UHR criteria in the early detection of persons who are at high risk of developing a first psychotic episode within 48months. Applying both sets of criteria improves sensitivity and individual risk estimation, and may thereby support the development of stage-targeted interventions. Moreover, since the combined approach enables the identification of considerably more homogeneous at-risk samples, it should support both preventive and basic research.