Gerbu adjuvant modulates the immune response and thus the course of infection in C56BL/6 mice immunised with Echinococcus multilocularis rec14-3-3 protein

Vaccination with Echinococcus multilocularis 14-3-3 protein can protect mice against primary E. multilocularis infection. The present study investigated the efficacy and efficiency of the adjuvant muramyl dipeptide Gerbu, alone or together with recombinant 14-3-3 protein, to modulate the course of secondary E. multilocularis infection in C56BL/6 mice. The application of Gerbu alone already resulted in a parasite weight reduction when compared with infected control mice, while rec14-3-3 did not add to this effect. Immunological parameters were concurrently assessed with a mixed cell reaction including bone marrow-derived dendritic cells (BMDCs) together with lymph node cells from mice with or without immunisation and/or infection. While mice having received Gerbu adjuvant were found to highly proliferate in response to co-cultivation with 14-3-3-stimulated bone marrow dendritic cells, a sensitisation of BMDCs with vesicle fluid (VF) antigen lead to a striking decrease of the lymphoproliferative response in comparison to that of control mice, raising the hypothesis that immunosuppressive components may be part of this VF-antigen. Anti-14-3-3 antibody production was only found in those mice that had been previously 14-3-3-immunised, whereas all other only-infected mice failed to produce such antibodies. Conclusively, Gerbu adjuvant appears to directly generate a non-specific immune response that contributes to the control of the metacestode growth, putatively in association with a BMDC activity suppressed by components of the VF-antigen.

Stimulation induced variability of pulse plethysmography does not discriminate responsiveness to intubation

BACKGROUND: Hypnotic depth but not haemodynamic response to painful stimulation can be measured with various EEG-based anaesthesia monitors. We evaluated the variation of pulse plethysmography amplitude induced by an electrical tetanic stimulus (PPG variation) as a potential measure for analgesia and predictor of haemodynamic responsiveness during general anaesthesia. METHODS: Ninety-five patients, ASA I or II, were randomly assigned to five groups [Group 1: bispectral index (BIS) (range) 40-50, effect site remifentanil concentration 1 ng ml(-1);Group 2: BIS 40-50, remifentanil 2 ng ml(-1); Group 3: BIS 40-50, remifentanil 4 ng ml(-1); Group 4: BIS 25-35, remifentanil 2 ng ml(-1); Group 5: BIS 55-65, remifentanil 2 ng ml(-1)]. A 60 mA tetanic stimulus was applied for 5 s on the ulnar nerve. From the digitized pulse oximeter wave recorded on a laptop computer, linear and non-linear parameters of PPG variation during the 60 s period after stimulation were computed. The haemodynamic response to subsequent orotracheal intubation was recorded. The PPG variation was compared between groups and between responders and non-responders to intubation (anova). Variables independently predicting the response were determined by logistic regression. RESULTS: The probability of a response to tracheal intubation was 0.77, 0.47, 0.05, 0.18 and 0.52 in Groups 1-5, respectively (P<0.03). The PPG variability was significantly higher in responders than in non-responders but it did not improve the prediction of the response to tracheal intubation based on BIS level and effect site remifentanil concentration. CONCLUSION: Tetanic stimulation induced PPG variation does not reflect the analgesic state in a wide clinical range of surgical anaesthesia.

Acute respiratory syndrome after inhalation of waterproofing sprays: a posteriori exposure-response assessment in 102 cases

Waterproofing agents are widely used to protect leather and textiles in both domestic and occupational activities. An outbreak of acute respiratory syndrome following exposure to waterproofing sprays occurred during the winter 2002-2003 in Switzerland. About 180 cases were reported by the Swiss Toxicological Information Centre between October 2002 and March 2003, whereas fewer than 10 cases per year had been recorded previously. The reported cases involved three brands of sprays containing a common waterproofing mixture, that had undergone a formulation change in the months preceding the outbreak. A retrospective analysis was undertaken in collaboration with the Swiss Toxicological Information Centre and the Swiss Registries for Interstitial and Orphan Lung Diseases to clarify the circumstances and possible causes of the observed health effects. Individual exposure data were generated with questionnaires and experimental emission measurements. The collected data was used to conduct numeric simulation for 102 cases of exposure. A classical two-zone model was used to assess the aerosol dispersion in the near- and far-field during spraying. The resulting assessed dose and exposure levels obtained were spread on large scales, of several orders of magnitude. No dose-response relationship was found between exposure indicators and health effects indicators (perceived severity and clinical indicators). Weak relationships were found between unspecific inflammatory response indicators (leukocytes, C-reactive protein) and the maximal exposure concentration. The results obtained disclose a high interindividual response variability and suggest that some indirect mechanism(s) predominates in the respiratory disease occurrence. Furthermore, no threshold could be found to define a safe level of exposure. These findings suggest that the improvement of environmental exposure conditions during spraying alone does not constitute a sufficient measure to prevent future outbreaks of waterproofing spray toxicity. More efficient preventive measures are needed prior to the marketing and distribution of new waterproofing agents.

Exhaustion is associated with reduced habituation of free cortisol responses to repeated acute psychosocial stress

We investigated the association between exhaustion and the habituation of free cortisol responses to repeated stress exposure. The study comprised 25 healthy male subjects (38-59 years) who were confronted three times with the Trier Social Stress Test. Mean cortisol responses showed the well-known general habituation effect. A two-way interaction day by exhaustion (p<0.05) indicated that mean cortisol responses vary across stress sessions depending on the extent of exhaustion. Linear regression revealed a negative dose-response relationship between exhaustion and the degree of habituation (p<0.02). We identified 19 individuals showing a response habituation (negative slope) and 6 individuals showing a response sensitization over the three sessions (positive slope) with the latter reporting higher exhaustion scores. It might be hypothesized that impaired habituation to repeated exposure to the same stressor could reflect a state of increased vulnerability for allostatic load. Absence of normal habituation might be one potential mechanism how exhaustion relates to increased disease vulnerability.

Coronary collateral flow in response to endurance exercise training

BACKGROUND: In humans, it is not known whether physical endurance exercise training promotes coronary collateral growth. The following hypotheses were tested: the expected collateral flow reduction after percutaneous coronary intervention of a stenotic lesion is prevented by endurance exercise training; collateral flow supplied to an angiographically normal coronary artery improves in response to exercise training; there is a direct relationship between the change of fitness after training and the coronary collateral flow change. METHODS AND RESULTS: Forty patients (age 61+/-8 years) underwent a 3-month endurance exercise training program with baseline and follow-up assessments of coronary collateral flow. Patients were divided into an exercise training group (n=24) and a sedentary group (n=16) according to the fact whether they adhered or not to the prescribed exercise program, and whether or not they showed increased endurance (VO2max in ml/min per kg) and performance (W/kg) during follow-up versus baseline bicycle spiroergometry. Collateral flow index (no unit) was obtained using pressure sensor guidewires positioned in the coronary artery undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention and in a normal vessel. In the vessel initially undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention, there was an increase in collateral flow index among exercising but not sedentary patients from 0.155+/-0.081 to 0.204+/-0.056 (P=0.03) and from 0.189+/-0.084 to 0.212+/-0.077 (NS), respectively. In the normal vessel, collateral flow index changes were from 0.176+/-0.075 to 0.227+/-0.070 in the exercise group (P=0.0002), and from 0.219+/-0.103 to 0.238+/-0.086 in the sedentary group (NS). A direct correlation existed between the change in collateral flow index from baseline to follow-up and the respective alteration of VO2max (P=0.007) and Watt (P=0.03). CONCLUSION: A 3-month endurance exercise training program augments coronary collateral supply to normal vessels, and even to previously stenotic arteries having undergone percutaneous coronary intervention before initiating the program. There appears to be a dose-response relation between coronary collateral flow augmentation and exercise capacity gained.

Cortical and subcortical correlates of electroencephalographic alpha rhythm modulation

Neural correlates of electroencephalographic (EEG) alpha rhythm are poorly understood. Here, we related EEG alpha rhythm in awake humans to blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signal change determined by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Topographical EEG was recorded simultaneously with fMRI during an open versus closed eyes and an auditory stimulation versus silence condition. EEG was separated into spatial components of maximal temporal independence using independent component analysis. Alpha component amplitudes and stimulus conditions served as general linear model regressors of the fMRI signal time course. In both paradigms, EEG alpha component amplitudes were associated with BOLD signal decreases in occipital areas, but not in thalamus, when a standard BOLD response curve (maximum effect at approximately 6 s) was assumed. The part of the alpha regressor independent of the protocol condition, however, revealed significant positive thalamic and mesencephalic correlations with a mean time delay of approximately 2.5 s between EEG and BOLD signals. The inverse relationship between EEG alpha amplitude and BOLD signals in primary and secondary visual areas suggests that widespread thalamocortical synchronization is associated with decreased brain metabolism. While the temporal relationship of this association is consistent with metabolic changes occurring simultaneously with changes in the alpha rhythm, sites in the medial thalamus and in the anterior midbrain were found to correlate with short time lag. Assuming a canonical hemodynamic response function, this finding is indicative of activity preceding the actual EEG change by some seconds.

Treatment of experimental cryptococcal meningitis with fluconazole: impact of dose and addition of flucytosine on mycologic and pathophysiologic outcome

Fluconazole is effective in the therapy of cryptococcal meningitis in patients with AIDS. The optimal dosage of fluconazole and the impact of combination with flucytosine are not known. In this study, rabbits with experimental cryptococcal meningitis were given fluconazole at low, intermediate, or high dose or in combination with a low or intermediate dose of flucytosine. Serial cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) examinations showed that all three doses of fluconazole and low-dose fluconazole in combination with intermediate-dose flucytosine were effective in reducing CSF cryptococcal titer, lactate, white blood cell count, and cryptococcal antigen (CRAG) titers. The intermediate and high doses of fluconazole reduced CSF fungal (P < .05) and CRAG (P < .001) titers earlier than low-dose fluconazole alone or in combination with flucytosine. Only the highest dose of fluconazole reduced brain edema after 7 days. In this model of cryptococcal meningitis, there was evidence of a dose response with fluconazole but no in vivo synergism with flucytosine.

A dose-controlled system for air-liquid interface cell exposure and application to zinc oxide nanoparticles

BACKGROUND: Engineered nanoparticles are becoming increasingly ubiquitous and their toxicological effects on human health, as well as on the ecosystem, have become a concern. Since initial contact with nanoparticles occurs at the epithelium in the lungs (or skin, or eyes), in vitro cell studies with nanoparticles require dose-controlled systems for delivery of nanoparticles to epithelial cells cultured at the air-liquid interface. RESULTS: A novel air-liquid interface cell exposure system (ALICE) for nanoparticles in liquids is presented and validated. The ALICE generates a dense cloud of droplets with a vibrating membrane nebulizer and utilizes combined cloud settling and single particle sedimentation for fast (~10 min; entire exposure), repeatable (<12%), low-stress and efficient delivery of nanoparticles, or dissolved substances, to cells cultured at the air-liquid interface. Validation with various types of nanoparticles (Au, ZnO and carbon black nanoparticles) and solutes (such as NaCl) showed that the ALICE provided spatially uniform deposition (<1.6% variability) and had no adverse effect on the viability of a widely used alveolar human epithelial-like cell line (A549). The cell deposited dose can be controlled with a quartz crystal microbalance (QCM) over a dynamic range of at least 0.02-200 mug/cm(2). The cell-specific deposition efficiency is currently limited to 0.072 (7.2% for two commercially available 6-er transwell plates), but a deposition efficiency of up to 0.57 (57%) is possible for better cell coverage of the exposure chamber. Dose-response measurements with ZnO nanoparticles (0.3-8.5 mug/cm(2)) showed significant differences in mRNA expression of pro-inflammatory (IL-8) and oxidative stress (HO-1) markers when comparing submerged and air-liquid interface exposures. Both exposure methods showed no cellular response below 1 mug/cm(2 )ZnO, which indicates that ZnO nanoparticles are not toxic at occupationally allowed exposure levels. CONCLUSION: The ALICE is a useful tool for dose-controlled nanoparticle (or solute) exposure of cells at the air-liquid interface. Significant differences between cellular response after ZnO nanoparticle exposure under submerged and air-liquid interface conditions suggest that pharmaceutical and toxicological studies with inhaled (nano-)particles should be performed under the more realistic air-liquid interface, rather than submerged cell conditions.

Unanticipated structural and functional properties of delta-subunit-containing GABAA receptors

GABA(A) receptors mediate inhibitory neurotransmission in the mammalian brain via synaptic and extrasynaptic receptors. The delta (delta)-subunit-containing receptors are expressed exclusively extra-synaptically and mediate tonic inhibition. In the present study, we were interested in determining the architecture of receptors containing the delta-subunit. To investigate this, we predefined the subunit arrangement by concatenation. We prepared five dual and three triple concatenated subunit constructs. These concatenated dual and triple constructs were used to predefine nine different GABA(A) receptor pentamers. These pentamers composed of alpha(1)-, beta(3)-, and delta-subunits were expressed in Xenopus oocytes and maximal currents elicited in response to 1 mm GABA were determined in the presence and absence of THDOC (3alpha, 21-dihydroxy-5alpha-pregnane-20-one). beta(3)-alpha(1)-delta/alpha(1)-beta(3) and beta(3)-alpha(1)-delta/beta(3)-alpha(1) resulted in the expression of large currents in response to GABA. Interestingly, the presence of the neurosteroid THDOC uncovered alpha(1)-beta(3)-alpha(1)/beta(3)-delta receptors, additionally. The functional receptors were characterized in detail using the agonist GABA, THDOC, Zn(2+), and ethanol and their properties were compared with those of non-concatenated alpha(1)beta(3) and alpha(1)beta(3)delta receptors. Each concatenated receptor isoform displayed a specific set of properties, but none of them responded to 30 mm ethanol. We conclude from the investigated receptors that delta can assume multiple positions in the receptor pentamer. The GABA dose-response properties of alpha(1)-beta(3)-alpha(1)/beta(3)-delta and beta(3)-alpha(1)-delta/alpha(1)-beta(3) match most closely the properties of non-concatenated alpha(1)beta(3)delta receptors. Furthermore, we show that the delta-subunit can contribute to the formation of an agonist site in alpha(1)-beta(3)-alpha(1)/beta(3)-delta receptors.

North-south palaeohydrological contrasts in the central Mediterranean during the Holocene: tentative synthesis and working hypotheses

On the basis of a multi-proxy approach and a strategy combining lacustrine and marine records along a north–south transect, data collected in the central Mediterranean within the framework of a collaborative project have led to reconstruction of high-resolution and well-dated palaeohydrological records and to assessment of their spatial and temporal coherency. Contrasting patterns of palaeohydrological changes have been evidenced in the central Mediterranean: south (north) of around 40° N of latitude, the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by lake-level maxima (minima), during an interval dated to ca. 10 300–4500 cal BP to the south and 9000–4500 cal BP to the north. Available data suggest that these contrasting palaeohydrological patterns operated throughout the Holocene, both on millennial and centennial scales. Regarding precipitation seasonality, maximum humidity in the central Mediterranean during the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by humid winters and dry summers north of ca. 40° N, and humid winters and summers south of ca. 40° N. This may explain an apparent conflict between palaeoclimatic records depending on the proxies used for reconstruction as well as the synchronous expansion of tree species taxa with contrasting climatic requirements. In addition, south of ca. 40° N, the first millennium of the Holocene was characterised by very dry climatic conditions not only in the eastern, but also in the central- and the western Mediterranean zones as reflected by low lake levels and delayed reforestation. These results suggest that, in addition to the influence of the Nile discharge reinforced by the African monsoon, the deposition of Sapropel 1 has been favoured (1) by an increase in winter precipitation in the northern Mediterranean borderlands, and (2) by an increase in winter and summer precipitation in the southern Mediterranean area. The climate reversal following the Holocene climate optimum appears to have been punctuated by two major climate changes around 7500 and 4500 cal BP. In the central Mediterranean, the Holocene palaeohydrological changes developed in response to a combination of orbital, ice-sheet and solar forcing factors. The maximum humidity interval in the south-central Mediterranean started ca. 10 300 cal BP, in correlation with the decline (1) of the possible blocking effects of the North Atlantic anticyclone linked to maximum insolation, and/or (2) of the influence of the remnant ice sheets and fresh water forcing in the North Atlantic Ocean. In the north-central Mediterranean, the lake-level minimum interval began only around 9000 cal BP when the Fennoscandian ice sheet disappeared and a prevailing positive NAO-(North Atlantic Oscillation) type circulation developed in the North Atlantic area. The major palaeohydrological oscillation around 4500–4000 cal BP may be a non-linear response to the gradual decrease in insolation, with additional key seasonal and interhemispheric changes. On a centennial scale, the successive climatic events which punctuated the entire Holocene in the central Mediterranean coincided with cooling events associated with deglacial outbursts in the North Atlantic area and decreases in solar activity during the interval 11 700–7000 cal BP, and to a possible combination of NAO-type circulation and solar forcing since ca. 7000 cal BP onwards. Thus, regarding the centennial-scale climatic oscillations, the Mediterranean Basin appears to have been strongly linked to the North Atlantic area and affected by solar activity over the entire Holocene. In addition to model experiments, a better understanding of forcing factors and past atmospheric circulation patterns behind the Holocene palaeohydrological changes in the Mediterranean area will require further investigation to establish additional high-resolution and well-dated records in selected locations around the Mediterranean Basin and in adjacent regions. Special attention should be paid to greater precision in the reconstruction, on millennial and centennial timescales, of changes in the latitudinal location of the limit between the northern and southern palaeohydrological Mediterranean sectors, depending on (1) the intensity and/or characteristics of climatic periods/oscillations (e.g. Holocene thermal maximum versus Neoglacial, as well as, for instance, the 8.2 ka event versus the 4 ka event or the Little Ice Age); and (2) on varying geographical conditions from the western to the eastern Mediterranean areas (longitudinal gradients). Finally, on the basis of projects using strategically located study sites, there is a need to explore possible influences of other general atmospheric circulation patterns than NAO, such as the East Atlantic–West Russian or North Sea–Caspian patterns, in explaining the apparent complexity of palaeoclimatic (palaeohydrological) Holocene records from the Mediterranean area.

Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum

The response of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics to volcanic eruptions and to a decrease in solar activity during the Dalton Minimum is investigated with the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry general circulation model SOCOL-MPIOM (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) covering the time period 1780 to 1840 AD. We carried out several sensitivity ensemble experiments to separate the effects of (i) reduced solar ultra-violet (UV) irradiance, (ii) reduced solar visible and near infrared irradiance, (iii) enhanced galactic cosmic ray intensity as well as less intensive solar energetic proton events and auroral electron precipitation, and (iv) volcanic aerosols. The introduced changes of UV irradiance and volcanic aerosols significantly influence stratospheric dynamics in the early 19th century, whereas changes in the visible part of the spectrum and energetic particles have smaller effects. A reduction of UV irradiance by 15%, which represents the presently discussed highest estimate of UV irradiance change caused by solar activity changes, causes global ozone decrease below the stratopause reaching as much as 8% in the midlatitudes at 5 hPa and a significant stratospheric cooling of up to 2 °C in the mid-stratosphere and to 6 °C in the lower mesosphere. Changes in energetic particle precipitation lead only to minor changes in the yearly averaged temperature fields in the stratosphere. Volcanic aerosols heat the tropical lower stratosphere, allowing more water vapour to enter the tropical stratosphere, which, via HOx reactions, decreases upper stratospheric and mesospheric ozone by roughly 4%. Conversely, heterogeneous chemistry on aerosols reduces stratospheric NOx, leading to a 12% ozone increase in the tropics, whereas a decrease in ozone of up to 5% is found over Antarctica in boreal winter. The linear superposition of the different contributions is not equivalent to the response obtained in a simulation when all forcing factors are applied during the Dalton Minimum (DM) – this effect is especially well visible for NOx/NOy. Thus, this study also shows the non-linear behaviour of the coupled chemistry-climate system. Finally, we conclude that especially UV and volcanic eruptions dominate the changes in the ozone, temperature and dynamics while the NOx field is dominated by the energetic particle precipitation. Visible radiation changes have only very minor effects on both stratospheric dynamics and chemistry.

Distance-based kriging relying on proxy simulations for inverse conditioning

Let us consider a large set of candidate parameter fields, such as hydraulic conductivity maps, on which we can run an accurate forward flow and transport simulation. We address the issue of rapidly identifying a subset of candidates whose response best match a reference response curve. In order to keep the number of calls to the accurate flow simulator computationally tractable, a recent distance-based approach relying on fast proxy simulations is revisited, and turned into a non-stationary kriging method where the covariance kernel is obtained by combining a classical kernel with the proxy. Once the accurate simulator has been run for an initial subset of parameter fields and a kriging metamodel has been inferred, the predictive distributions of misfits for the remaining parameter fields can be used as a guide to select candidate parameter fields in a sequential way. The proposed algorithm, Proxy-based Kriging for Sequential Inversion (ProKSI), relies on a variant of the Expected Improvement, a popular criterion for kriging-based global optimization. A statistical benchmark of ProKSI’s performances illustrates the efficiency and the robustness of the approach when using different kinds of proxies.

Anaemia may add information to standardised disease activity assessment to predict radiographic damage in rheumatoid arthritis: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE: Anaemia in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is prototypical of the chronic disease type and is often neglected in clinical practice. We studied anaemia in relation to disease activity, medications and radiographic progression. METHODS: Data were collected between 1996 and 2007 over a mean follow-up of 2.2 years. Anaemia was defined according to WHO (♀ haemoglobin<12 g/dl, ♂: haemoglobin<13 g/dl), or alternative criteria. Anaemia prevalence was studied in relation to disease parameters and pharmacological therapy. Radiographic progression was analysed in 9731 radiograph sets from 2681 patients in crude longitudinal regression models and after adjusting for potential confounding factors, including the clinical disease activity score with the 28-joint count for tender and swollen joints and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28ESR) or the clinical disease activity index (cDAI), synthetic antirheumatic drugs and antitumour necrosis factor (TNF) therapy. RESULTS: Anaemia prevalence decreased from more than 24% in years before 2001 to 15% in 2007. Erosions progressed significantly faster in patients with anaemia (p<0.001). Adjusted models showed these effects independently of clinical disease activity and other indicators of disease severity. Radiographic damage progression rates were increasing with severity of anaemia, suggesting a 'dose-response effect'. The effect of anaemia on damage progression was maintained in subgroups of patients treated with TNF blockade or corticosteroids, and without non-selective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). CONCLUSIONS: Anaemia in RA appears to capture disease processes that remain unmeasured by established disease activity measures in patients with or without TNF blockade, and may help to identify patients with more rapid erosive disease.

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.