On trend estimation under monotone Gaussian subordination with long-memory: application to fossil pollen series

Fossil pollen data from stratigraphic cores are irregularly spaced in time due to non-linear age-depth relations. Moreover, their marginal distributions may vary over time. We address these features in a nonparametric regression model with errors that are monotone transformations of a latent continuous-time Gaussian process Z(T). Although Z(T) is unobserved, due to monotonicity, under suitable regularity conditions, it can be recovered facilitating further computations such as estimation of the long-memory parameter and the Hermite coefficients. The estimation of Z(T) itself involves estimation of the marginal distribution function of the regression errors. These issues are considered in proposing a plug-in algorithm for optimal bandwidth selection and construction of confidence bands for the trend function. Some high-resolution time series of pollen records from Lago di Origlio in Switzerland, which go back ca. 20,000 years are used to illustrate the methods.

The reporting quality of randomized controlled trials in orthodontics.

OBJECTIVES Accurate trial reporting facilitates evaluation and better use of study results. The objective of this article is to investigate the quality of reporting of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in leading orthodontic journals, and to explore potential predictors of improved reporting. METHODS The 50 most recent issues of 4 leading orthodontic journals until November 2013 were electronically searched. Reporting quality assessment was conducted using the modified CONSORT statement checklist. The relationship between potential predictors and the modified CONSORT score was assessed using linear regression modeling. RESULTS 128 RCTs were identified with a mean modified CONSORT score of 68.97% (SD = 11.09). The Journal of Orthodontics (JO) ranked first in terms of completeness of reporting (modified CONSORT score 76.21%, SD = 10.1), followed by American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics (AJODO) (73.05%, SD = 10.1). Journal of publication (AJODO: β = 10.08, 95% CI: 5.78, 14.38; JO: β = 16.82, 95% CI: 11.70, 21.94; EJO: β = 7.21, 95% CI: 2.69, 11.72 compared to Angle), year of publication (β = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.28, 1.67 for each additional year), region of authorship (Europe: β = 5.19, 95% CI: 1.30, 9.09 compared to Asia/other), statistical significance (significant: β = 3.10, 95% CI: 0.11, 6.10 compared to non-significant) and methodologist involvement (involvement: β = 5.60, 95% CI: 1.66, 9.54 compared to non-involvement) were all significant predictors of improved modified CONSORT scores in the multivariable model. Additionally, median overall Jadad score was 2 (IQR = 2) across journals, with JO (median = 3, IQR = 1) and AJODO (median = 3, IQR = 2) presenting the highest score values. CONCLUSION The reporting quality of RCTs published in leading orthodontic journals is considered suboptimal in various CONSORT areas. This may have a bearing in trial result interpretation and use in clinical decision making and evidence- based orthodontic treatment interventions.

Determination of respiratory gas flow by electrical impedance tomography in an animal model of mechanical ventilation

Background A recent method determines regional gas flow of the lung by electrical impedance tomography (EIT). The aim of this study is to show the applicability of this method in a porcine model of mechanical ventilation in healthy and diseased lungs. Our primary hypothesis is that global gas flow measured by EIT can be correlated with spirometry. Our secondary hypothesis is that regional analysis of respiratory gas flow delivers physiologically meaningful results. Methods In two sets of experiments n = 7 healthy pigs and n = 6 pigs before and after induction of lavage lung injury were investigated. EIT of the lung and spirometry were registered synchronously during ongoing mechanical ventilation. In-vivo aeration of the lung was analysed in four regions-of-interest (ROI) by EIT: 1) global, 2) ventral (non-dependent), 3) middle and 4) dorsal (dependent) ROI. Respiratory gas flow was calculated by the first derivative of the regional aeration curve. Four phases of the respiratory cycle were discriminated. They delivered peak and late inspiratory and expiratory gas flow (PIF, LIF, PEF, LEF) characterizing early or late inspiration or expiration. Results Linear regression analysis of EIT and spirometry in healthy pigs revealed a very good correlation measuring peak flow and a good correlation detecting late flow. PIFEIT = 0.702 · PIFspiro + 117.4, r2 = 0.809; PEFEIT = 0.690 · PEFspiro-124.2, r2 = 0.760; LIFEIT = 0.909 · LIFspiro + 27.32, r2 = 0.572 and LEFEIT = 0.858 · LEFspiro-10.94, r2 = 0.647. EIT derived absolute gas flow was generally smaller than data from spirometry. Regional gas flow was distributed heterogeneously during different phases of the respiratory cycle. But, the regional distribution of gas flow stayed stable during different ventilator settings. Moderate lung injury changed the regional pattern of gas flow. Conclusions We conclude that the presented method is able to determine global respiratory gas flow of the lung in different phases of the respiratory cycle. Additionally, it delivers meaningful insight into regional pulmonary characteristics, i.e. the regional ability of the lung to take up and to release air.

CD41 T cell recovery during suppression of HIV replication: an international comparison of the immunological efficacy of antiretroviral therapy in North America, Asia and Africa.

BACKGROUND Even among HIV-infected patients who fully suppress plasma HIV RNA replication on antiretroviral therapy, genetic (e.g. CCL3L1 copy number), viral (e.g. tropism) and environmental (e.g. chronic exposure to microbial antigens) factors influence CD4 recovery. These factors differ markedly around the world and therefore the expected CD4 recovery during HIV RNA suppression may differ globally. METHODS We evaluated HIV-infected adults from North America, West Africa, East Africa, Southern Africa and Asia starting non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitorbased regimens containing efavirenz or nevirapine, who achieved at least one HIV RNA level <500/ml in the first year of therapy and observed CD4 changes during HIV RNA suppression. We used a piecewise linear regression to estimate the influence of region of residence on CD4 recovery, adjusting for socio-demographic and clinical characteristics. We observed 28 217 patients from 105 cohorts over 37 825 person-years. RESULTS After adjustment, patients from East Africa showed diminished CD4 recovery as compared with other regions. Three years after antiretroviral therapy initiation, the mean CD4 count for a prototypical patient with a pre-therapy CD4 count of 150/ml was 529/ml [95% confidence interval (CI): 517–541] in North America, 494/ml (95% CI: 429–559) in West Africa, 515/ml (95% CI: 508–522) in Southern Africa, 503/ml (95% CI: 478–528) in Asia and 437/ml (95% CI: 425–449) in East Africa. CONCLUSIONS CD4 recovery during HIV RNA suppression is diminished in East Africa as compared with other regions of the world, and observed differences are large enough to potentially influence clinical outcomes. Epidemiological analyses on a global scale can identify macroscopic effects unobservable at the clinical, national or individual regional level.

ROBREG: Stata module providing robust regression estimators

robreg provides a number of robust estimators for linear regression models. Among them are the high breakdown-point and high efficiency MM-estimator, the Huber and bisquare M-estimator, and the S-estimator, each supporting classic or robust standard errors. Furthermore, basic versions of the LMS/LQS (least median of squares) and LTS (least trimmed squares) estimators are provided. Note that the moremata package, also available from SSC, is required.

Modeling absolute differences in life expectancy with a censored skew-normal regression approach.

Parameter estimates from commonly used multivariable parametric survival regression models do not directly quantify differences in years of life expectancy. Gaussian linear regression models give results in terms of absolute mean differences, but are not appropriate in modeling life expectancy, because in many situations time to death has a negative skewed distribution. A regression approach using a skew-normal distribution would be an alternative to parametric survival models in the modeling of life expectancy, because parameter estimates can be interpreted in terms of survival time differences while allowing for skewness of the distribution. In this paper we show how to use the skew-normal regression so that censored and left-truncated observations are accounted for. With this we model differences in life expectancy using data from the Swiss National Cohort Study and from official life expectancy estimates and compare the results with those derived from commonly used survival regression models. We conclude that a censored skew-normal survival regression approach for left-truncated observations can be used to model differences in life expectancy across covariates of interest.

Breastfeeding, lung volumes and alveolar size at school-age.

BACKGROUND Previous studies found larger lung volumes at school-age in formerly breastfed children, with some studies suggesting an effect modification by maternal asthma. We wanted to explore this further in children who had undergone extensive lung function testing. The current study aimed to assess whether breastfeeding was associated with larger lung volumes and, if so, whether all compartments were affected. We also assessed association of breastfeeding with apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), which measures freedom of gas diffusion in alveolar-acinar compartments and is a surrogate of alveolar dimensions. Additionally, we assessed whether these effects were modified by maternal asthma. METHODS We analysed data from 111 children and young adults aged 11-21 years, who had participated in detailed lung function testing, including spirometry, plethysmography and measurement of ADC of (3)Helium ((3)He) by MR. Information on breastfeeding came from questionnaires applied in early childhood (age 1-4 years). We determined the association between breastfeeding and these measurements using linear regression, controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS We did not find significant evidence for an association between duration of breastfeeding and lung volumes or alveolar dimensions in the entire sample. In breastfed children of mothers with asthma, we observed larger lung volumes and larger average alveolar size than in non-breastfed children, but the differences did not reach significance levels. CONCLUSIONS Confirmation of effects of breastfeeding on lung volumes would have important implications for public health. Further investigations with larger sample sizes are warranted.

Serum Testosterone Levels and Symptom-Based Depression Subtypes in Men

The main objective of this preliminary study was to further clarify the association between testosterone (T) levels and depression by investigating symptom-based depression subtypes in a sample of 64 men. The data were taken from the ZInEP epidemiology survey. Gonadal hormones of a melancholic (n  = 25) and an atypical (n = 14) depression subtype, derived from latent class analysis, were compared with those of healthy controls (n  = 18). Serum T was assayed using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay procedure. Analysis of variance, analysis of covariance, non-parametrical tests, and generalized linear regression models were performed to examine group differences. The atypical depressive subtype showed significantly lower T levels compared with the melancholic depressives. While accumulative evidence indicates that, beyond psychosocial characteristics, the melancholic and atypical depressive subtypes are also distinguishable by biological correlates, the current study expanded this knowledge to include gonadal hormones. Further longitudinal research is warranted to disclose causality by linking the multiple processes in pathogenesis of depression.

Evidence for chronic low-grade systemic inflammation in individuals with agoraphobia from a population-based prospective study.

BACKGROUND Anxiety disorders have been linked to an increased risk of incident coronary heart disease in which inflammation plays a key pathogenic role. To date, no studies have looked at the association between proinflammatory markers and agoraphobia. METHODS In a random Swiss population sample of 2890 persons (35-67 years, 53% women), we diagnosed a total of 124 individuals (4.3%) with agoraphobia using a validated semi-structured psychiatric interview. We also assessed socioeconomic status, traditional cardiovascular risk factors (i.e., body mass index, hypertension, blood glucose levels, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol ratio), and health behaviors (i.e., smoking, alcohol consumption, and physical activity), and other major psychiatric diseases (other anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, drug dependence) which were treated as covariates in linear regression models. Circulating levels of inflammatory markers, statistically controlled for the baseline demographic and health-related measures, were determined at a mean follow-up of 5.5 ± 0.4 years (range 4.7 - 8.5). RESULTS Individuals with agoraphobia had significantly higher follow-up levels of C-reactive protein (p = 0.007) and tumor-necrosis-factor-α (p = 0.042) as well as lower levels of the cardioprotective marker adiponectin (p = 0.032) than their non-agoraphobic counterparts. Follow-up levels of interleukin (IL)-1β and IL-6 did not significantly differ between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest an increase in chronic low-grade inflammation in agoraphobia over time. Such a mechanism might link agoraphobia with an increased risk of atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease, and needs to be tested in longitudinal studies.

Endothelial progenitor cells as a biological marker of peripheral artery disease.

The role of endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) in peripheral artery disease (PAD) remains unclear. We hypothesized that EPC mobilization and function play a central role in the development of endothelial dysfunction and directly influence the degree of atherosclerotic burden in peripheral artery vessels. The number of circulating EPCs, defined as CD34(+)/KDR(+) cells, were assessed by flow cytometry in 91 subjects classified according to a predefined sample size of 31 non-diabetic PAD patients, 30 diabetic PAD patients, and 30 healthy volunteers. Both PAD groups had undergone endovascular treatment in the past. As a functional parameter, EPC colony-forming units were determined ex vivo. Apart from a broad laboratory analysis, a series of clinical measures using the ankle-brachial index (ABI), flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) and carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) were investigated. A significant reduction of EPC counts and proliferation indices in both PAD groups compared to healthy subjects were observed. Low EPC number and pathological findings in the clinical assessment were strongly correlated to the group allocation. Multivariate statistical analysis revealed these findings to be independent predictors of disease appearance. Linear regression analysis showed the ABI to be a predictor of circulating EPC number (p=0.02). Moreover, the functionality of EPCs was correlated by linear regression (p=0.017) to cIMT. The influence of diabetes mellitus on EPCs in our study has to be considered marginal in already disease-affected patients. This study demonstrated that EPCs could predict the prevalence and severity of symptomatic PAD, with ABI as the determinant of the state of EPC populations in disease-affected groups.

A randomized trial of the effects of the noble gases helium and argon on neuroprotection in a rodent cardiac arrest model.

BACKGROUND The noble gas xenon is considered as a neuroprotective agent, but availability of the gas is limited. Studies on neuroprotection with the abundant noble gases helium and argon demonstrated mixed results, and data regarding neuroprotection after cardiac arrest are scant. We tested the hypothesis that administration of 50% helium or 50% argon for 24 h after resuscitation from cardiac arrest improves clinical and histological outcome in our 8 min rat cardiac arrest model. METHODS Forty animals had cardiac arrest induced with intravenous potassium/esmolol and were randomized to post-resuscitation ventilation with either helium/oxygen, argon/oxygen or air/oxygen for 24 h. Eight additional animals without cardiac arrest served as reference, these animals were not randomized and not included into the statistical analysis. Primary outcome was assessment of neuronal damage in histology of the region I of hippocampus proper (CA1) from those animals surviving until day 5. Secondary outcome was evaluation of neurobehavior by daily testing of a Neurodeficit Score (NDS), the Tape Removal Test (TRT), a simple vertical pole test (VPT) and the Open Field Test (OFT). Because of the non-parametric distribution of the data, the histological assessments were compared with the Kruskal-Wallis test. Treatment effect in repeated measured assessments was estimated with a linear regression with clustered robust standard errors (SE), where normality is less important. RESULTS Twenty-nine out of 40 rats survived until day 5 with significant initial deficits in neurobehavioral, but rapid improvement within all groups randomized to cardiac arrest. There were no statistical significant differences between groups neither in the histological nor in neurobehavioral assessment. CONCLUSIONS The replacement of air with either helium or argon in a 50:50 air/oxygen mixture for 24 h did not improve histological or clinical outcome in rats subjected to 8 min of cardiac arrest.