Adapting agricultural land management to climate change: a regional multi-objective optimization approach

In several regions of the world, climate change is expected to have severe impacts on agricultural systems. Changes in land management are one way to adapt to future climatic conditions, including land-use changes and local adjustments of agricultural practices. In previous studies, options for adaptation have mostly been explored by testing alternative scenarios. Systematic explorations of land management possibilities using optimization approaches were so far mainly restricted to studies of land and resource management under constant climatic conditions. In this study, we bridge this gap and exploit the benefits of multi-objective regional optimization for identifying optimum land management adaptations to climate change. We design a multi-objective optimization routine that integrates a generic crop model and considers two climate scenarios for 2050 in a meso-scale catchment on the Swiss Central Plateau with already limited water resources. The results indicate that adaptation will be necessary in the study area to cope with a decrease in productivity by 0–10 %, an increase in soil loss by 25–35 %, and an increase in N-leaching by 30–45 %. Adaptation options identified here exhibit conflicts between productivity and environmental goals, but compromises are possible. Necessary management changes include (i) adjustments of crop shares, i.e. increasing the proportion of early harvested winter cereals at the expense of irrigated spring crops, (ii) widespread use of reduced tillage, (iii) allocation of irrigated areas to soils with low water-retention capacity at lower elevations, and (iv) conversion of some pre-alpine grasslands to croplands.

A Food Recognition System for Diabetic Patients based on an Optimized Bag of Features Model

Computer vision-based food recognition could be used to estimate a meal's carbohydrate content for diabetic patients. This study proposes a methodology for automatic food recognition, based on the Bag of Features (BoF) model. An extensive technical investigation was conducted for the identification and optimization of the best performing components involved in the BoF architecture, as well as the estimation of the corresponding parameters. For the design and evaluation of the prototype system, a visual dataset with nearly 5,000 food images was created and organized into 11 classes. The optimized system computes dense local features, using the scale-invariant feature transform on the HSV color space, builds a visual dictionary of 10,000 visual words by using the hierarchical k-means clustering and finally classifies the food images with a linear support vector machine classifier. The system achieved classification accuracy of the order of 78%, thus proving the feasibility of the proposed approach in a very challenging image dataset.

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.

SLA-Driven Simulation of Multi-Tenant Scalable Cloud-Distributed Enterprise Information Systems

Cloud Computing is an enabler for delivering large-scale, distributed enterprise applications with strict requirements in terms of performance. It is often the case that such applications have complex scaling and Service Level Agreement (SLA) management requirements. In this paper we present a simulation approach for validating and comparing SLA-aware scaling policies using the CloudSim simulator, using data from an actual Distributed Enterprise Information System (dEIS). We extend CloudSim with concurrent and multi-tenant task simulation capabilities. We then show how different scaling policies can be used for simulating multiple dEIS applications. We present multiple experiments depicting the impact of VM scaling on both datacenter energy consumption and dEIS performance indicators.

The dementia cognitive fluctuation scale, a new psychometric test for clinicians to identify cognitive fluctuations in people with dementia.

OBJECTIVES Cognitive fluctuation (CF) is a common feature of dementia and a core diagnostic symptom for dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB). CF remains difficult to accurately and reliably detect clinically. This study aimed to develop a psychometric test that could be used by clinicians to facilitate the identification of CF and improve the recognition and diagnosis of DLB and Parkinson disease, and to improve differential diagnosis of other dementias. METHODS We compiled a 17-item psychometric test for identifying CF and applied this measure in a cross-sectional design. Participants were recruited from the North East of England, and assessments were made in individuals' homes. We recruited people with four subtypes of dementia and a healthy comparison group, and all subjects were administered this pilot scale together with other standard ratings. The psychometric properties of the scale were examined with exploratory factor analysis. We also examined the ability of individual items to identify CF to discriminate between dementia subtypes. The sensitivity and specificity of discriminating items were explored along with validity and reliability analyses. RESULTS Participants comprised 32 comparison subjects, 30 people with Alzheimer disease, 30 with vascular dementia, 29 with DLB, and 32 with dementia associated with Parkinson disease. Four items significantly discriminated between dementia groups and showed good levels of sensitivity (range: 78.6%-80.3%) and specificity (range: 73.9%-79.3%). The scale had very good levels of test-retest (Cronbach's alpha: 0.82) and interrater (0.81) reliabilities. The four items loaded onto three different factors. These items were: 1) marked differences in functioning during the daytime; 2) daytime somnolence; 3) daytime drowsiness; and 4) altered levels of consciousness during the day. CONCLUSIONS We identified four items that provide valid, sensitive, and specific questions for reliably identifying CF and distinguishing the Lewy body dementias from other major causes of dementia (Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia).

An initiative for participatory monitoring of large scale acquisitions: Opportunities and results thus far

Increasing commercial pressures on land are provoking fundamental and far-reaching changes in the relationships between people and land. Much knowledge on land-oriented investments projects currently comes from the media. Although this provides a good starting point, lack of transparency and rapidly changing contexts mean that this is often unreliable. The International Land Coalition, in partnership with Oxfam Novib, Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD), University of Pretoria, Centre for Development and Environment of the University of Bern (CDE), and GIZ, started to compile an inventory of land-related investments. This project aims to better understand the extent, trends and impacts of land-related investments by supporting an ongoing and systematic stocktaking exercise of the various investment projects currently taking place worldwide. It involves a large number of organizations and individuals working in areas where land transactions are being made, and able to provide details of such investments. The project monitors land transactions in rural areas that imply a transformation of land use rights from communities and smallholders to commercial use, and are made both by domestic and foreign investors (private actors, governments, government-back private investors). The focus is on investments for food or agrofuel production, timber extraction, carbon trading, mineral extraction, conservation and tourism. A novel way of using ITC to document land acquisitions in a spatially explicit way and by using an approach called “crowdsourcing” is being developed. This approach will allow actors to share information and knowledge directly and at any time on a public platform, where it will be scrutinized in terms of reliability and cross checked with other sources. Up to now, over 1200 deals have been recorded across 96 countries. Details of such transactions have been classified in a matrix and distributed to over 350 contacts worldwide for verification. The verified information has been geo-referenced and represented in two global maps. This is an open database enabling a continued monitoring exercise and the improvement of data accuracy. More information will be released over time. The opportunities arise from overcoming constraints by incomplete information by proposing a new way of collecting, enhancing and sharing information and knowledge in a more democratic and transparent manner. The intention is to develop interactive knowledge platform where any interested person can share and access information on land deals, their link to involved stakeholders, and their embedding into a geographical context. By making use of new ICT technologies that are more and more in the reach of local stakeholders, as well as open access and web-based spatial information systems, it will become possible to create a dynamic database containing spatial explicit data. Feeding in data by a large number of stakeholders, increasingly also by means of new mobile ITC technologies, will open up new opportunities to analyse, monitor and assess highly dynamic trends of land acquisition and rural transformation.

Brand Authenticity: An Integrative Framework and Measurement Scale

This article develops an integrative framework of the concept of perceived brand authenticity (PBA) and sheds light on PBA’s (1) measurement, (2) drivers, (3) consequences, as well as (4) an underlying process of its effects and (5) boundary conditions. A multi-phase scale development process resulted in a 15-item PBA scale to measure its four dimensions of credibility, integrity, symbolism, and continuity. PBA is influenced by indexical, existential, and iconic cues, whereby the latter’s influence is moderated by consumers’ level of marketing skepticism. Results also suggest that PBA drives brand choice likelihood through self-congruence for consumers high in self-authenticity.

Brand Authenticity: An Integrative Framework and Measurement Scale

Although brand authenticity is gaining increasing interest in consumer behavior research and managerial practice, literature on its measurement and contribution to branding theory is still limited. This article develops an integrative framework of the concept of brand authenticity and reports the development and validation of a scale measuring consumers' perceived brand authenticity (PBA). A multi-phase scale development process resulted in a 15-item PBA scale measuring four dimensions: credibility, integrity, symbolism, and continuity. This scale is reliable across different brands and cultural contexts. We find that brand authenticity perceptions are influenced by indexical, existential, and iconic cues, whereby some of the latters' influence is moderated by consumers' level of marketing skepticism. Results also suggest that PBA increases emotional brand attachment and word-of-mouth, and that it drives brand choice likelihood through self-congruence for consumers high in self-authenticity.

Revealing regional deforestation dynamics in north-eastern Madagascar - Insights from multi-temporal land cover change analysis

The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar harbours the island’s last remaining large-scale humid forest massifs surrounded by a small-scale agricultural mosaic. There is high deforestation, commonly thought to be caused by shifting cultivation practiced by local land users to produce upland rice. However, little is known about the dynamics between forest and shifting cultivation systems at a regional level. Our study presents a first attempt to quantify changes in the extent of forest and different agricultural land cover classes, and to identify the main dynamics of land cover change for two intervals, 1995–2005 and 2005–2011. Over the 16-year study period, the speed of forest loss increased, the total area of upland rice production remained almost stable, and the area of irrigated rice fields slightly increased. While our findings seem to confirm a general trend of land use intensification, deforestation through shifting cultivation is still on the rise. Deforestation mostly affects the small forest fragments interspersed in the agricultural mosaic and is slowly leading to a homogenization of the landscape. These findings have important implications for future interventions to slow forest loss in the region, as the processes of agricultural expansion through shifting cultivation versus intensified land use cannot per se be considered mutually exclusive.

Towards a spatial understanding of trade-offs in sustainable development: A meso-scale analysis of the nexus between land use, poverty, and environment in the Lao PDR

In land systems, equitably managing trade-offs between planetary boundaries and human development needs represents a grand challenge in sustainability oriented initiatives. Informing such initiatives requires knowledge about the nexus between land use, poverty, and environment. This paper presents results from Lao PDR, where we combined nationwide spatial data on land use types and the environmental state of landscapes with village-level poverty indicators. Our analysis reveals two general but contrasting trends. First, landscapes with paddy or permanent agriculture allow a greater number of people to live in less poverty but come at the price of a decrease in natural vegetation cover. Second, people practising extensive swidden agriculture and living in intact environments are often better off than people in degraded paddy or permanent agriculture. As poverty rates within different landscape types vary more than between landscape types, we cannot stipulate a land use–poverty–environment nexus. However, the distinct spatial patterns or configurations of these rates point to other important factors at play. Drawing on ethnicity as a proximate factor for endogenous development potentials and accessibility as a proximate factor for external influences, we further explore these linkages. Ethnicity is strongly related to poverty in all land use types almost independently of accessibility, implying that social distance outweighs geographic or physical distance. In turn, accessibility, almost a precondition for poverty alleviation, is mainly beneficial to ethnic majority groups and people living in paddy or permanent agriculture. These groups are able to translate improved accessibility into poverty alleviation. Our results show that the concurrence of external influences with local—highly contextual—development potentials is key to shaping outcomes of the land use–poverty–environment nexus. By addressing such leverage points, these findings help guide more effective development interventions. At the same time, they point to the need in land change science to better integrate the understanding of place-based land indicators with process-based drivers of land use change.

Joining the dots - understanding the complex interplay between the values we place on wildlife, biodiversity conservation, human and animal health: A review.

The value of wildlife has long been ignored or under-rated. However, growing concerns about biodiversity loss and emerging diseases of wildlife origin have enhanced debates about the importance of wildlife. Wildlife-related diseases are viewed through these debates as a potential threat to wildlife conservation and domestic animal and human health. This article provides an overview of the values we place on wildlife (positive: socio-cultural, nutritional, economic, ecological; and negative: damages, health issues) and of the significance of diseases for biodiversity conservation. It shows that the values of wildlife, the emergence of wildlife diseases and biodiversity conservation are closely linked. The article also illustrates why investigations into wildlife diseases are now recognized as an integral part of global health issues. The modern One Health concept requires multi-disciplinary research groups including veterinarians, human physicians, ecologists and other scientists collaborating towards a common goal: prevention of disease emergence and preservation of ecosystems, both of which are essential to protect human life and well-being.

Dark matter sensitivity of multi-ton liquid xenon detectors

We study the sensitivity of multi ton-scale time projection chambers using a liquid xenon target, e.g., the proposed DARWIN instrument, to spin-independent and spin-dependent WIMP-nucleon scattering interactions. Taking into account realistic backgrounds from the detector itself as well as from neutrinos, we examine the impact of exposure, energy threshold, background rejection efficiency and energy resolution on the dark matter sensitivity. With an exposure of 200 t x y and assuming detector parameters which have been already demonstrated experimentally, spin-independent cross sections as low as 2.5×10−49 cm2 can be probed for WIMP masses around 40 GeV/c2. Additional improvements in terms of background rejection and exposure will further increase the sensitivity, while the ultimate WIMP science reach will be limited by neutrinos scattering coherently off the xenon nuclei.

Large-scale dust jets in the coma of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko as seen by the OSIRIS instrument onboard Rosetta

Context. During the most recent perihelion passage in 2009 of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P), ground-based observations showed an anisotropic dust coma where jet-like features were detected at similar to 1.3 AU from the Sun. The current perihelion passage is exceptional as the Rosetta spacecraft is monitoring the nucleus activity since March 2014, when a clear dust coma was already surrounding the nucleus at 4.3 AU from the Sun. Subsequently, the OSIRIS camera also witnessed an outburst in activity between April 27 and 30, and since mid-July, the dust coma at rh similar to 3.7-3.6 AU preperihelion is clearly non-isotropic, pointing to the existence of dust jet-like features. Aims. We aim to ascertain on the nucleus surface the origin of the dust jet-like features detected as early as in mid-July 2014. This will help to establish how the localized comet nucleus activity compares with that seen in previous apparitions and will also help following its evolution as the comet approaches its perihelion, at which phase most of the jets were detected from ground-based observations. Determining these areas also allows locating them in regions on the nucleus with spectroscopic or geomorphological distinct characteristics. Methods. Three series of dust images of comet 67P obtained with the Wide Angle Camera (WAC) of the OSIRIS instrument onboard the Rosetta spacecraft were processed with different enhancement techniques. This was made to clearly show the existence of jet-like features in the dust coma, whose appearance toward the observer changed as a result of the rotation of the comet nucleus and of the changing observing geometry from the spacecraft. The position angles of these features in the coma together with information on the observing geometry, nucleus shape, and rotation, allowed us to determine the most likely locations on the nucleus surface where the jets originate from. Results. Geometrical tracing of jet sources indicates that the activity of the nucleus of 67P gave rise during July and August 2014 to large-scale jet-like features from the Hapi, Hathor, Anuket, and Aten regions, confirming that active regions may be present on the nucleus localized at 60. northern latitude as deduced from previous comet apparitions. There are also hints that large-scale jets observed from the ground are possibly composed, at their place of origin on the nucleus surface, of numerous small-scale features.

Genetic diversity and differentiation follow secondary succession in a multi-species study on woody plants from subtropical China

Aims: Species diversity and genetic diversity may be affected in parallel by similar environmental drivers. However, genetic diversity may also be affected independently by habitat characteristics. We aim at disentangling relationships between genetic diversity, species diversity and habitat characteristics of woody species in subtropical forest. Methods: We studied 11 dominant tree and shrub species in 27 plots in Gutianshan, China, and assessed their genetic diversity (Ar) and population differentiation (F’ST) with microsatellite markers. We tested if Ar and population specific F’ST were correlated to local species diversity and plot characteristics. Multi-model inference and model averaging were used to determine the relative importance of each predictor. Additionally we tested for isolation-by-distance and isolation-by-elevation by regressing pairwise F’ST against pairwise spatial and elevational distances. Important findings: Genetic diversity was not related to species diversity for any of the study species. Thus, our results do not support joint effects of habitat characteristics on these two levels of biodiversity. Instead, genetic diversity in two understory shrubs, Rhododendron simsii and Vaccinium carlesii, was affected by plot age with decreasing genetic diversity in successionally older plots. Population differentiation increased with plot age in Rhododendron simsii and Lithocarpus glaber. This shows that succession can reduce genetic diversity within, and increase genetic diversity between populations. Furthermore, we found four cases of isolation-by-distance and two cases of isolation-by-elevation. The former indicates inefficient pollen and seed dispersal by animals whereas the latter might be due to phenological asynchronies. These patterns indicate that succession can affect genetic diversity without parallel effects on species diversity and that gene flow in a continuous subtropical forest can be restricted even at a local scale.