Conservation of threatened habitat types under future climate change – Lessons from plant-distribution models and current extinction trends in southern Germany

A higher risk of future range losses as a result of climate change is expected to be one of the main drivers of extinction trends in vascular plants occurring in habitat types of high conservation value. Nevertheless, the impact of the climate changes of the last 60 years on the current distribution and extinction patterns of plants is still largely unclear. We applied species distribution models to study the impact of environmental variables (climate, soil conditions, land cover, topography), on the current distribution of 18 vascular plant species characteristic of three threatened habitat types in southern Germany: (i) xero-thermophilous vegetation, (ii) mesophilous mountain grasslands (mountain hay meadows and matgrass communities), and (iii) wetland habitats (bogs, fens, and wet meadows). Climate and soil variables were the most important variables affecting plant distributions at a spatial level of 10 × 10 km. Extinction trends in our study area revealed that plant species which occur in wetland habitats faced higher extinction risks than those in xero-thermophilous vegetation, with the risk for species in mesophilous mountain grasslands being intermediary. For three plant species characteristic either of mesophilous mountain grasslands or wetland habitats we showed exemplarily that extinctions from 1950 to the present day have occurred at the edge of the species’ current climatic niche, indicating that climate change has likely been the main driver of extinction. This is largely consistent with current extinction trends reported in other studies. Our study indicates that the analysis of past extinctions is an appropriate means to assess the impact of climate change on species and that vulnerability to climate change is both species- and habitat-specific.

A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 2: Shortcomings and strengths of models and reconstructions

This study compares gridded European seasonal series of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (PRE) reconstructions with a regional climate simulation over the period 1500–1990. The area is analysed separately for nine subareas that represent the majority of the climate diversity in the European sector. In their spatial structure, an overall good agreement is found between the reconstructed and simulated climate features across Europe, supporting consistency in both products. Systematic biases between both data sets can be explained by a priori known deficiencies in the simulation. Simulations and reconstructions, however, largely differ in the temporal evolution of past climate for European subregions. In particular, the simulated anomalies during the Maunder and Dalton minima show stronger response to changes in the external forcings than recorded in the reconstructions. Although this disagreement is to some extent expected given the prominent role of internal variability in the evolution of regional temperature and precipitation, a certain degree of agreement is a priori expected in variables directly affected by external forcings. In this sense, the inability of the model to reproduce a warm period similar to that recorded for the winters during the first decades of the 18th century in the reconstructions is indicative of fundamental limitations in the simulation that preclude reproducing exceptionally anomalous conditions. Despite these limitations, the simulated climate is a physically consistent data set, which can be used as a benchmark to analyse the consistency and limitations of gridded reconstructions of different variables. A comparison of the leading modes of SAT and PRE variability indicates that reconstructions are too simplistic, especially for precipitation, which is associated with the linear statistical techniques used to generate the reconstructions. The analysis of the co-variability between sea level pressure (SLP) and SAT and PRE in the simulation yields a result which resembles the canonical co-variability recorded in the observations for the 20th century. However, the same analysis for reconstructions exhibits anomalously low correlations, which points towards a lack of dynamical consistency between independent reconstructions.

Batch scheduling in process industries: an application of resource-constrained project scheduling

The paper deals with batch scheduling problems in process industries where final products arise from several successive chemical or physical transformations of raw materials using multi–purpose equipment. In batch production mode, the total requirements of intermediate and final products are partitioned into batches. The production start of a batch at a given level requires the availability of all input products. We consider the problem of scheduling the production of given batches such that the makespan is minimized. Constraints like minimum and maximum time lags between successive production levels, sequence–dependent facility setup times, finite intermediate storages, production breaks, and time–varying manpower contribute to the complexity of this problem. We propose a new solution approach using models and methods of resource–constrained project scheduling, which (approximately) solves problems of industrial size within a reasonable amount of time.

Application of 3D documentation and geometric reconstruction methods in traffic accident analysis: with high resolution surface scanning, radiological MSCT/MRI scanning and real data based animation

The examination of traffic accidents is daily routine in forensic medicine. An important question in the analysis of the victims of traffic accidents, for example in collisions between motor vehicles and pedestrians or cyclists, is the situation of the impact. Apart from forensic medical examinations (external examination and autopsy), three-dimensional technologies and methods are gaining importance in forensic investigations. Besides the post-mortem multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the documentation and analysis of internal findings, highly precise 3D surface scanning is employed for the documentation of the external body findings and of injury-inflicting instruments. The correlation of injuries of the body to the injury-inflicting object and the accident mechanism are of great importance. The applied methods include documentation of the external and internal body and the involved vehicles and inflicting tools as well as the analysis of the acquired data. The body surface and the accident vehicles with their damages were digitized by 3D surface scanning. For the internal findings of the body, post-mortem MSCT and MRI were used. The analysis included the processing of the obtained data to 3D models, determination of the driving direction of the vehicle, correlation of injuries to the vehicle damages, geometric determination of the impact situation and evaluation of further findings of the accident. In the following article, the benefits of the 3D documentation and computer-assisted, drawn-to-scale 3D comparisons of the relevant injuries with the damages to the vehicle in the analysis of the course of accidents, especially with regard to the impact situation, are shown on two examined cases.