Estimating Intra-Party Preferences: Comparing Speeches to Votes

Well-established methods exist for measuring party positions, but reliable means for estimating intra-party preferences remain underdeveloped. While most efforts focus on estimating the ideal points of individual legislators based on inductive scaling of roll call votes, this data suffers from two problems: selection bias due to unrecorded votes and strong party discipline, which tends to make voting a strategic rather than a sincere indication of preferences. By contrast, legislative speeches are relatively unconstrained, as party leaders are less likely to punish MPs for speaking freely as long as they vote with the party line. Yet, the differences between roll call estimations and text scalings remain essentially unexplored, despite the growing application of statistical analysis of textual data to measure policy preferences. Our paper addresses this lacuna by exploiting a rich feature of the Swiss legislature: on most bills, legislators both vote and speak many times. Using this data, we compare text-based scaling of ideal points to vote-based scaling from a crucial piece of energy legislation. Our findings confirm that text scalings reveal larger intra-party differences than roll calls. Using regression models, we further explain the differences between roll call and text scalings by attributing differences to constituency-level preferences for energy policy.

Cultural Legacies and Political Preferences: The Failure of Separatism in the Swiss Jura

The study of secession generally stresses the causal influence of cultural identities, political preferences, or ecological factors. Whereas these different views are often considered to be mutually exclusive, this paper proposes a two-stage model in which they are complementary. We posit that cultural identities matter for explaining secessionism, but not because of primordial attachments. Rather, religious and linguistic groups matter because their members are imbued with cultural legacies that lead to distinct political preferences – in this case preferences over welfare statism. Further, ecological constraints such as geography and topography affect social interaction with like-minded individuals. On the basis of both these political preferences and ecological constraints, individuals then make rational choices about the desirability of secession. Instrumental considerations are therefore crucial in explaining the decision to secede, but not in a conventional pocketbook manner. To examine this theory, we analyze the 2013 referendum on the secession of the Jura Bernois region from the Canton of Berne in Switzerland, using municipal level census and referendum data. The results lend support to the theory and suggest one way in which the politics of identity, based on factors like language and religion, can be fused with the politics of interest (preferences for more or less state intervention into the polity and economy) to better understand group behavior.

Preferences for the organization of long-term follow-up in adolescent and young adult cancer survivors.

PURPOSE As survival rates of adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer patients increase, a growing number of AYA cancer survivors need follow-up care. However, there is little research on their preferences for follow-up care. We aimed to (1) describe AYA cancer survivors' preferences for the organization and content of follow-up care, (2) describe their preferences for different models of follow-up, and (3) investigate clinical and sociodemographic characteristics associated with preferences for the different models. METHODS AYA cancer survivors (diagnosed with cancer at age 16-25 years; ≥5 years after diagnosis) were identified through the Cancer Registry Zurich and Zug. Survivors completed a questionnaire on follow-up attendance, preferences for organizational aspects of follow-up care (what is important during follow-up, what should be included during appointments, what specialists should be involved, location), models of follow-up (telephone/questionnaire, general practitioner (GP), pediatric oncologist, medical oncologist, multidisciplinary team), and sociodemographic characteristics. Information on tumor and treatment was available through the Cancer Registry Zurich and Zug. RESULTS Of 389 contacted survivors, 160 (41.1 %) participated and 92 (57.5 %) reported still attending follow-up. Medical aspects of follow-up care were more important than general aspects (p < 0.001). Among different organizational models, follow-up by a medical oncologist was rated higher than all other models (p = 0.002). Non-attenders of follow-up rated GP-led follow-up significantly higher than attenders (p = 0.001). CONCLUSION Swiss AYA cancer survivors valued medical content of follow-up and showed a preference for medical oncologist-led follow-up. Implementation of different models of follow-up care might improve accessibility and attendance among AYA cancer survivors.