Effects of oligotrophication on primary production in peri-alpine lakes

During the second half of the 20th century untreated sewage released from housing and industry into natural waters led to a degradation of many freshwater lakes and reservoirs worldwide. In order to mitigate eutrophication, wastewater treatment plants, including Fe-induced phosphorus precipitation, were implemented throughout the industrialized world, leading to reoligotrophication in many freshwater lakes. To understand and assess the effects of reoligotrophication on primary productivity, we analyzed 28 years of 14C assimilation rates, as well as other biotic and abiotic parameters, such as global radiation, nutrient concentrations and plankton densities in peri-alpine Lake Lucerne, Switzerland. Using a simple productivity-light relationship, we estimated continuous primary production and discussed the relation between productivity and observed limnological parameters. Furthermore, we assessed the uncertainty of our modeling approach based on monthly 14C assimilation measurements using Monte Carlo simulations. Results confirm that monthly sampling of productivity is sufficient for identifying long-term trends in productivity and that conservation management has successfully improved water quality during the past three decades via reducing nutrients and primary production in the lake. However, even though nutrient concentrations have remained constant in recent years, annual primary production varies significantly from year to year. Despite the fact that nutrient concentrations have decreased by more than an order of magnitude, primary production has decreased only slightly. These results suggest that primary production correlates well to nutrients availability but meteorological conditions lead to interannual variability regardless of the trophic status of the lake. Accordingly, in oligotrophic freshwaters meteorological forcing may reduce productivity impacting on the entire food chain of the ecosystem.

Spatial heterogeneity and lake morphology affect diffusive greenhouse gas emission estimates of lakes

Most estimates of diffusive flux (F) of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) from lakes are based on single-point flux chamber measurements or on piston velocity (k) modeled from wind speed and single-point measurements of surface water gas concentrations (C-aq). We analyzed spatial variability of F of CH4 and CO2, as well as C-aq and k in 22 European lakes during late summer. F and k were higher in the lake centers, leading to considerable bias when extrapolating single-point chamber measurements to whole-lake estimates. The ratio of our empirical k estimates to wind speed-modeled k was related to lake size and shape, suggesting a lake morphology effect on the relationship between wind speed and k. This indicates that the error inherent to established wind speed models can be reduced by determining k and C-aq at multiple sites on lakes to calibrate wind speed-modeled k to the local system.

Are great Cascadia earthquakes recorded in the sedimentary records from small forearc lakes?

Here we investigate sedimentary records from four small inland lakes located in the southern Cascadia forearc region for evidence of earthquakes. Three of these lakes are in the Klamath Mountains near the Oregon–California border, and one is in the central Oregon Coast range. The sedimentary sequences recovered from these lakes are composed of normal lake sediment interbedded with disturbance event layers. The thickest of these layers are graded, and appear to be turbidites or linked debrites (turbidites with a basal debris-flow deposit), suggesting rapid deposition. Variations in particle size and organic content of these layers are reflected in the density and magnetic susceptibility data. The frequency and timing of these events, based on radiocarbon ages from detrital organics, is similar to the offshore seismogenic turbidite record from trench and slope basin cores along the Cascadia margin. Stratigraphic correlation of these anomalous deposits based on radiocarbon ages, down-core density, and magnetic susceptibility data between lake and offshore records suggest synchronous triggering. The areal extent and multiple depositional environments over which these events appear to correlate suggest that these deposits were most likely caused by shaking during great Cascadia earthquakes.

Environmental change within the Balkan region during the past ca. 50 ka recorded in the sediments from lakes Prespa and Ohrid

Abstract. Lakes Prespa and Ohrid, in the Balkan region, are considered to be amongst the oldest lakes in Europe. Both lakes are hydraulically connected via karst aquifers. From Lake Ohrid, several sediment cores up to 15m long have been studied over the last few years. Here, we document the first long sediment record from nearby Lake Prespa to clarify the influence of Lake Prespa on Lake Ohrid and the environmental history of the region. Radiocarbon dating and dated tephra layers provide robust age control and indicate that the 10.5m long sediment record from Lake Prespa reaches back to 48 ka. Glacial sedimentation is characterized by low organic matter content and absence of carbonates in the sediments, which indicate oligotrophic conditions in both lakes. Holocene sedimentation is characterized by particularly high carbonate content in Lake Ohrid and by particularly high organic matter content in Lake Prespa, which indicates a shift towards more mesotrophic conditions in the latter. Long-term environmental change and short-term events, such as related to the Heinrich events during the Pleistocene or the 8.2 ka cooling event during the Holocene, are well recorded in both lakes, but are only evident in certain proxies. The comparison of the sediment cores from both lakes indicates that environmental change affects particularly the trophic state of Lake Prespa due to its lower volume and water depth.

Late Quaternary palaeoenvironmental reconstruction from Lakes Ohrid and Prespa (Macedonia/Albania border) using stable isotopes

Abstract. Here we present stable isotope data from three sediment records from lakes that lie along the Macedonian- Albanian border (Lake Prespa: 1 core, and Lake Ohrid: 2 cores). The records only overlap for the last 40 kyr, although the longest record contains the MIS 5/6 transition (Lake Ohrid). The sedimentary characteristics of both lakes differ significantly between the glacial and interglacial phases. At the end of MIS 6 Lake Ohrid’s water level was low (high �18Ocalcite) and, although productivity was increasing (high calcite content), the carbon supply was mainly from inorganic catchment rock sources (high �13Ccarb). During the last interglacial, calcite and TOC production and preservation increased, progressively lower �18Ocalcite suggest increase in humidity and lake levels until around 115 ka. During ca. 80 ka to 11 ka the lake records suggest cold conditions as indicated by negligible calcite precipitation and low organic matter content. In Lake Ohrid, �13Corg are complacent; in contrast, Lake Prespa shows consistently higher �13Corg suggesting a low oxidation of 13C-depleted organic matter in agreement with a general deterioration of climate conditions during the glacial. From 15 ka to the onset of the Holocene, calcite and TOC begin to increase, suggesting lake levels were probably low (high �18Ocalcite). In the Holocene (11 ka to present) enhanced productivity is manifested by high calcite and organic matter content. All three cores show an early Holocene characterised by low �18Ocalcite, apart from the very early Holocene phase in Prespa where the lowest �18Ocalcite occurs at ca. 7.5 ka, suggesting a phase of higher lake level only in (the more sensitive) Lake Prespa. From 6 ka, �18Ocalcite suggest progressive aridification, in agreement with many other records in the Mediterranean, although the uppermost sediments in one core records low �18Ocalcite which we interpret as a result of human activity. Overall, the isotope data present here confirm that these two big lakes have captured the large scale, low frequency palaeoclimate variation that is seen in Mediterranean lakes, although in detail there is much palaeoclimate information that could be gained, especially small scale, high frequency differences between this region and the Mediterranean.

Predictive Margins and Marginal Effects in Stata

Tables of estimated regression coefficients, usually accompanied by additional information such as standard errors, t-statistics, p-values, confidence intervals or significance stars, have long been the preferred way of communicating results from statistical models. In recent years, however, the limits of this form of exposition have been increasingly recognized. For example, interpretation of regression tables can be very challenging in the presence of complications such as interaction effects, categorical variables, or nonlinear functional forms. Furthermore, while these issues might still be manageable in the case of linear regression, interpretational difficulties can be overwhelming in nonlinear models such as logistic regression. To facilitate sensible interpretation of such models it is often necessary to compute additional results such as marginal effects, predictive margins, or contrasts. Moreover, smart graphical displays of results can be very valuable in making complex relations accessible. A number of helpful commands geared at supporting these tasks have been recently introduced in Stata, making elaborate interpretation and communication of regression results possible without much extra effort. Examples of such commands are -margins-, -contrasts-, and -marginsplot-. In my talk, I will discuss the capabilities of these commands and present a range of examples illustrating their use.

Survey estimation and marginal effects in Stata

Stata is a general purpose software package that has become popular among various disciplines such as epidemiology, economics, or social sciences. Users like Stata for its scientific approach, its robustness and reliability, and the ease with which its functionality can be extended by user written programs. In this talk I will first give a brief overview of the functionality of Stata and then discuss two specific features: survey estimation and predictive margins/marginal effects. Most surveys are based on complex samples that contain multiple sampling stages, are stratified or clustered, and feature unequal selection probabilities. Standard estimators can produce misleading results in such samples unless the peculiarities of the sampling plan are taken into account. Stata offers survey statistics for complex samples for a wide variety of estimators and supports several variance estimation procedures such as linearization, jackknife, and balanced repeated replication (see Kreuter and Valliant, 2007, Stata Journal 7: 1-21). In the talk I will illustrate these features using applied examples and I will also show how user written commands can be adapted to support complex samples. Complex can also be the models we fit to our data, making it difficult to interpret them, especially in case of nonlinear or non-additive models (Mood, 2010, European Sociological Review 26: 67-82). Stata provides a number of highly useful commands to make results of such models accessible by computing and displaying predictive margins and marginal effects. In my talk I will discuss these commands provide various examples demonstrating their use.

Challenging conservation agriculture on marginal slopes in Sehoul, Morocco

In Sehoul, Morocco, the use of marginal land for agriculture became a necessity for the local population due to increased poverty and the occupation of the best land by new owners. Desertification poses an additional threat to agricultural production on marginal slopes, which are often stony and degraded. In a participatory process embedded in the EU DESIRE research project, potential sustainable land management measures were selected to address land degradation and desertification. Promising experiences with no-tillage practices elsewhere in Morocco had motivated the Moroccan government to promote conservation agriculture throughout the country. This combination of crop rotation, minimal soil disturbance and soil cover maintenance, however, had not yet been tested on sloping degraded land. Field trials of grazing enclosure combined with no or minimum tillage were conducted on the plots of two farmers, and trial results were analyzed based on stakeholders’ criteria. Results suggest that increased soil cover with barley residues improved rainwater use efficiency and yields only slightly, although soil water was generally enhanced. Soil moisture measurements revealed that no-tillage was favorable mainly at soil depths of 5 cm and in connection with low-rainfall events (<20 mm); under these circumstances, moisture content was generally higher under no-tillage than under conventional tillage. Moreover, stakeholder discussion confirmed that farmers in Sehoul remain primarily interested in animal husbandry and are reluctant to change the current grazing system. Implementation of conservation agriculture is thus challenged both by the degraded, sloping and stony nature of the land, and by the socio-economic circumstances in Sehoul.

The origin of oriented lakes: evidence from the Bolivian Amazon

The presence of hundreds of rectangular and oriented lakes is one of the most striking characteristics of the Llanos de Moxos (LM) landscape in the Bolivian Amazon. Oriented lakes also occur in the Arctic coastal plains of Russia, Alaska and Canada and along the Atlantic Coastal Plain from northeast Florida to southeast New Jersey and along the coast of northeast Brazil. Many different mechanisms have been proposed for their formation. In the LM, Plafker's (1964) tectonic model, in which subsidence results from the propagation of bedrock faults through the foreland sediments, is the most accepted. However, this model has not been verified. Here, we present new results from stratigraphic transects across the borders of three rectangular and oriented lakes in the LM. A paleosol buried under mid-Holocene sediments is used as a stratigraphic marker to assess the vertical displacement of sediments on both sides of the alleged faults. Our results show that there is no vertical displacement and, therefore, that Plafker's model can be ruled out. We suggest that, among all the proposed mechanisms behind lake formation, the combined action of wind and waves is the most likely. The evidence from the LM provides new hints for the formation of oriented lakes worldwide.

Understanding the performance of the FLake model over two African Great Lakes

The ability of the one-dimensional lake model FLake to represent the mixolimnion temperatures for tropical conditions was tested for three locations in East Africa: Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika's northern and southern basins. Meteorological observations from surrounding automatic weather stations were corrected and used to drive FLake, whereas a comprehensive set of water temperature profiles served to evaluate the model at each site. Careful forcing data correction and model configuration made it possible to reproduce the observed mixed layer seasonality at Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika (northern and southern basins), with correct representation of both the mixed layer depth and water temperatures. At Lake Kivu, mixolimnion temperatures predicted by FLake were found to be sensitive both to minimal variations in the external parameters and to small changes in the meteorological driving data, in particular wind velocity. In each case, small modifications may lead to a regime switch, from the correctly represented seasonal mixed layer deepening to either completely mixed or permanently stratified conditions from similar to 10 m downwards. In contrast, model temperatures were found to be robust close to the surface, with acceptable predictions of near-surface water temperatures even when the seasonal mixing regime is not reproduced. FLake can thus be a suitable tool to parameterise tropical lake water surface temperatures within atmospheric prediction models. Finally, FLake was used to attribute the seasonal mixing cycle at Lake Kivu to variations in the near-surface meteorological conditions. It was found that the annual mixing down to 60m during the main dry season is primarily due to enhanced lake evaporation and secondarily to the decreased incoming long wave radiation, both causing a significant heat loss from the lake surface and associated mixolimnion cooling.

Resin composites: Modulus of elasticity and marginal quality

OBJECTIVE To investigate how the modulus of elasticity of resin composites influences marginal quality in restorations submitted to thermocyclic and mechanical loading. METHODS Charisma, Filtek Supreme XTE and Grandio were selected as they were found to possess different moduli of elasticity but quite similar polymerization contraction. MOD cavities (n=30) were prepared in extracted premolars, restored and then subjected to thermocyclic and mechanical loading. Marginal quality of the restorations before and after loading was analyzed on epoxy replicas under a scanning electron microscope. The percentage of gap-free margins and occurrence of paramarginal fractures were registered. Modulus of elasticity and polymerization contraction were analyzed with parametric and margins with nonparametric ANOVA and post hoc Tukey HSD or Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, respectively. The number of paramarginal fractures was analyzed with exact Fisher tests (α=0.05). RESULTS Grandio demonstrated significantly more gap-free enamel margins than Charisma and Filtek Supreme XTE, before and after loading (p<0.01), whereas there was no difference between Charisma and Filtek Supreme XTE (p>0.05). No significant effect of resin composite (p=0.81) on the quality of dentine margins was observed, before or after loading. Deterioration of all margins was evident after loading (p<0.0001). More paramarginal enamel fractures were observed after loading in teeth restored with Grandio when compared to Charisma (p=0.008). CONCLUSIONS The resin composite with the highest modulus of elasticity resulted in the highest number of gap-free enamel margins but with an increased incidence of paramarginal enamel fractures. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE The results from this study suggest that the marginal quality of restorations can be improved by the selection of a resin composite with modulus of elasticity close to that of dentine, although an increase in paramarginal enamel fractures can result as a consequence.

Quantitative morphometric analysis of lakes using GIS: rectangularity R , ellipticity E , orientation O , and the rectangularity vs. ellipticity index, REi

Quantitative measures of polygon shapes and orientation are important elements of geospatial analysis. These kinds of measures are particularly valuable in the case of lakes, where shape and orientation patterns can help identifying the geomorphological agents behind lake formation and evolution. However, the lack of built-in tools in commercial geographic information system (GIS) software packages designed for this kind of analysis has meant that many researchers often must rely on tools and workarounds that are not always accurate. Here, an easy-to-use method to measure rectangularity R, ellipticity E, and orientation O is developed. In addition, a new rectangularity vs. ellipticity index, REi, is defined. Following a step-by-step process, it is shown how these measures and index can be easily calculated using a combination of GIS built-in functions. The identification of shapes and estimation of orientations performed by this method is applied to the case study of the geometric and oriented lakes of the Llanos de Moxos, in the Bolivian Amazon, where shape and orientation have been the two most important elements studied to infer possible formation mechanisms. It is shown that, thanks to these new indexes, shape and orientation patterns are unveiled, which would have been hard to identify otherwise.