The ADO index as a predictor of two-year mortality in general practice-based chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohorts.

BACKGROUND Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings.

The ARCH Projects: design and rationale (IAASSG 001).

OBJECTIVE A number of factors limit the effectiveness of current aortic arch studies in assessing optimal neuroprotection strategies, including insufficient patient numbers, heterogenous definitions of clinical variables, multiple technical strategies, inadequate reporting of surgical outcomes and a lack of collaborative effort. We have formed an international coalition of centres to provide more robust investigations into this topic. METHODS High-volume aortic arch centres were identified from the literature and contacted for recruitment. A Research Steering Committee of expert arch surgeons was convened to oversee the direction of the research. RESULTS The International Aortic Arch Surgery Study Group has been formed by 41 arch surgeons from 10 countries to better evaluate patient outcomes after aortic arch surgery. Several projects, including the establishment of a multi-institutional retrospective database, randomized controlled trials and a prospectively collected database, are currently underway. CONCLUSIONS Such a collaborative effort will herald a turning point in the surgical management of aortic arch pathologies and will provide better powered analyses to assess the impact of varying surgical techniques on mortality and morbidity, identify predictors for neurological and operative risk, formulate and validate risk predictor models and review long-term survival outcomes and quality-of-life after arch surgery.

Guaranteed resonance enclosures and exclosures for atoms and molecules

In this paper, we confirm, with absolute certainty, a conjecture on a certain oscillatory behaviour of higher auto-ionizing resonances of atoms and molecules beyond a threshold. These results not only definitely settle a more than 30 year old controversy in Rittby et al. (1981 Phys. Rev. A 24, 1636–1639 (doi:10.1103/PhysRevA.24.1636)) and Korsch et al. (1982 Phys. Rev. A 26, 1802–1803 (doi:10.1103/PhysRevA.26.1802)), but also provide new and reliable information on the threshold. Our interval-arithmetic-based method allows one, for the first time, to enclose and to exclude resonances with guaranteed certainty. The efficiency of our approach is demonstrated by the fact that we are able to show that the approximations in Rittby et al. (1981 Phys. Rev. A 24, 1636–1639 (doi:10.1103/PhysRevA.24.1636)) do lie near true resonances, whereas the approximations of higher resonances in Korsch et al. (1982 Phys. Rev. A 26, 1802–1803 (doi:10.1103/PhysRevA.26.1802)) do not, and further that there exist two new pairs of resonances as suggested in Abramov et al. (2001 J. Phys. A 34, 57–72 (doi:10.1088/0305-4470/34/1/304)).

Disparities in treatment rates of paediatric end-stage renal disease across Europe: insights from the ESPN/ERA-EDTA registry.

BACKGROUND Considerable disparities exist in the provision of paediatric renal replacement therapy (RRT) across Europe. This study aims to determine whether these disparities arise from geographical differences in the occurrence of renal disease, or whether country-level access-to-care factors may be responsible. METHODS Incidence was defined as the number of new patients aged 0-14 years starting RRT per year, between 2007 and 2011, per million children (pmc), and was extracted from the ESPN/ERA-EDTA registry database for 35 European countries. Country-level indicators on macroeconomics, perinatal care and physical access to treatment were collected through an online survey and from the World Bank database. The estimated effect is presented per 1SD increase for each indicator. RESULTS The incidence of paediatric RRT in Europe was 5.4 cases pmc. Incidence decreased from Western to Eastern Europe (-1.91 pmc/1321 km, P < 0.0001), and increased from Southern to Northern Europe (0.93 pmc/838 km, P = 0.002). Regional differences in the occurrence of specific renal diseases were marginal. Higher RRT treatment rates were found in wealthier countries (2.47 pmc/€10 378 GDP per capita, P < 0.0001), among those that tend to spend more on healthcare (1.45 pmc/1.7% public health expenditure, P < 0.0001), and among countries where patients pay less out-of-pocket for healthcare (-1.29 pmc/11.7% out-of-pocket health expenditure, P < 0.0001). Country neonatal mortality was inversely related with incidence in the youngest patients (ages 0-4, -1.1 pmc/2.1 deaths per 1000 births, P = 0.10). Countries with a higher incidence had a lower average age at RRT start, which was fully explained by country GDP per capita. CONCLUSIONS Inequalities exist in the provision of paediatric RRT throughout Europe, most of which are explained by differences in country macroeconomics, which limit the provision of treatment particularly in the youngest patients. This poses a challenge for healthcare policy makers in their aim to ensure universal and equal access to high-quality healthcare services across Europe.

Sulfate and Nitrate Assimilation in Leaves of Quercus ilex and Quercus pubescens Grown Near Natural CO2 Springs in Central Italy

The effect of long-term exposure to elevated pCO2 concentrations on sulfate and nitrate assimilation was studied under field conditions using leaves from Quercus ilex and Quercus pubescens trees growing with ambient or elevated CO2 concentrations in the vicinity of three natural CO2 springs, Bossoleto, Laiatico and Sulfatara, in Tuscany, Italy. The activity of the key enzymes of sulfate assimilation, adenosine 5′-phosphosulfate reductase (APR) and nitrate assimilation, nitrate reductase (NR), were measured together with the levels of acid soluble thiols, and soluble non-proteinogenic nitrogen compounds. Whereas NR activity remained unaffected in Q. ilex or increased Q. pubescence, APR activity decreased in the area of CO2 springs. The latter changes were often accompanied by increased GSH concentrations, apparently synthesized from H2S and SO2 present in the gas mixture emitted from the CO2 springs. Thus, the diminished APR activity in leaves of Q. ilex and Q. pubescence from spring areas can best be explained by the exposure to gaseous sulfur compounds. Although the concentrations of H2S and SO2 in the gas mixture emitted from the vents at the CO2 springs were low at the Bossoleto and Laiatico spring, these sulfur gases pose physiological effects, which may override consequences of elevated pCO2.

Immune-Deficient Drosophila melanogaster: A Model for the Innate Immune Response to Human Fungal Pathogens

We explored the host-pathogen interactions of the human opportunistic fungus Candida albicans using Drosophila melanogaster. We established that a Drosophila strain devoid of functional Toll receptor is highly susceptible to the human pathogen C. albicans. Using this sensitive strain, we have been able to show that a set of specific C. albicans mutants of different virulence in mammalian infection models are also impaired in virulence in Drosophila and remarkably display the same rank order of virulence. This immunodeficient insect model also revealed virulence properties undetected in an immunocompetent murine model of infection. The genetic systems available in both host and pathogen will enable the identification of host-specific components and C. albicans genes involved in the host-fungal interplay.

Long-term trends in invertebrate–habitat relationships under protected and fished conditions

Few studies examine the long-term effects of changing predator size and abundance on the habitat associations of resident organisms despite that this knowledge is critical to understand the ecosystem effects of fishing. Marine reserves offer the opportunity to determine ecosystem-level effects of manipulated predator densities, while parallel monitoring of adjacent fished areas allows separating these effects from regional-scale change. Relationships between two measures of benthic habitat structure (reef architecture and topographic complexity) and key invertebrate species were followed over 17 years at fished and protected subtidal rocky reefs associated with two southern Australian marine reserves. Two commercially harvested species, the southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) and blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) were initially weakly associated with habitat structure across all fished and protected sites. The strength of association with habitat for both species increased markedly at protected sites 2 years after marine reserve declaration, and then gradually weakened over subsequent years. The increasing size of rock lobster within reserves apparently reduced their dependency on reef shelters as refuges from predation. Rising predation by fish and rock lobster in the reserves corresponded with weakening invertebrate–habitat relationships for H. rubra and sea urchins (Heliocidaris erythrogramma). These results emphasise that animal–habitat relationships are not necessarily stable through time and highlight the value of marine reserves as reference sites. Our work shows that fishery closures to enhance populations of commercially important and keystone species should be in areas with a range of habitat features to accommodate shifting ecological requirements with ontogenesis.

Canopy cover mediates interactions between a specialist caterpillar and seedlings of a neotropical tree

1 Light availability may be crucial for understanding dynamics of plant–herbivore interactions in temperate and tropical forest communities. This is because local light availability can influence both tree seedling tolerance and susceptibility to herbivory – yet how they mediate levels of insect herbivory that vary with the density of host population is virtually unknown. Here we tested predictions of three key, non-mutually exclusive hypotheses of plant–herbivore interactions: the Limiting Resource Model (LRM), the Plant Vigour Hypothesis (PVH), and the Janzen-Connell Mechanism (JCM). 2 In an Amazonian forest, we planted Swietenia macrophylla seedlings (c. 5 months old) into natural canopy gaps and the shaded understorey and simulated the damage patterns of the specialist herbivore moth, Steniscadia poliophaea, by clipping seedling leaves. Over the next 8 months, we monitored seedling performance in terms of growth and survivorship and also quantified herbivory to new young leaves on a seasonal basis. 3 In support of the LRM, severe leaf damage (≥ 50%) was lethal for Swietenia macrophylla seedlings in the understorey, but in gaps only reduced seedling growth. In support of the PVH, gap seedlings suffered greater post-simulated herbivory (up to 100% defoliation) by S. poliophaea caterpillars than their understorey counterparts. 4 Adding a novel dimension to the Janzen–Connell hypothesis, we found that early wet season herbivory of seedlings in gaps increased with conspecific adult density within a 125-m radius; whereas in the understorey only those seedlings within 50 m of a Swietenia tree were attacked by caterpillars. 5 Synthesis. These results suggest lepidopterans that need young leaves for food may forage more widely in forests to find seedlings in light-rich canopy gaps. Moths may achieve this successfully by being first attracted to gaps, and then searching within them for suitable hosts. A conceptual model, integrating conspecific adult tree density with light-driven changes in seedling tolerance/vigour and their susceptibility to herbivory and mortality, is presented. Spatial variation in the light available to tree seedlings often affects their tolerance and vigour, which may have important consequences for leaf-chewing insects and the scale of density-dependent herbivory in forests.

Addition of docetaxel, zoledronic acid, or both to first-line long-term hormone therapy in prostate cancer (STAMPEDE): survival results from an adaptive, multiarm, multistage, platform randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Long-term hormone therapy has been the standard of care for advanced prostate cancer since the 1940s. STAMPEDE is a randomised controlled trial using a multiarm, multistage platform design. It recruits men with high-risk, locally advanced, metastatic or recurrent prostate cancer who are starting first-line long-term hormone therapy. We report primary survival results for three research comparisons testing the addition of zoledronic acid, docetaxel, or their combination to standard of care versus standard of care alone. METHODS Standard of care was hormone therapy for at least 2 years; radiotherapy was encouraged for men with N0M0 disease to November, 2011, then mandated; radiotherapy was optional for men with node-positive non-metastatic (N+M0) disease. Stratified randomisation (via minimisation) allocated men 2:1:1:1 to standard of care only (SOC-only; control), standard of care plus zoledronic acid (SOC + ZA), standard of care plus docetaxel (SOC + Doc), or standard of care with both zoledronic acid and docetaxel (SOC + ZA + Doc). Zoledronic acid (4 mg) was given for six 3-weekly cycles, then 4-weekly until 2 years, and docetaxel (75 mg/m(2)) for six 3-weekly cycles with prednisolone 10 mg daily. There was no blinding to treatment allocation. The primary outcome measure was overall survival. Pairwise comparisons of research versus control had 90% power at 2·5% one-sided α for hazard ratio (HR) 0·75, requiring roughly 400 control arm deaths. Statistical analyses were undertaken with standard log-rank-type methods for time-to-event data, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs derived from adjusted Cox models. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00268476) and ControlledTrials.com (ISRCTN78818544). FINDINGS 2962 men were randomly assigned to four groups between Oct 5, 2005, and March 31, 2013. Median age was 65 years (IQR 60-71). 1817 (61%) men had M+ disease, 448 (15%) had N+/X M0, and 697 (24%) had N0M0. 165 (6%) men were previously treated with local therapy, and median prostate-specific antigen was 65 ng/mL (IQR 23-184). Median follow-up was 43 months (IQR 30-60). There were 415 deaths in the control group (347 [84%] prostate cancer). Median overall survival was 71 months (IQR 32 to not reached) for SOC-only, not reached (32 to not reached) for SOC + ZA (HR 0·94, 95% CI 0·79-1·11; p=0·450), 81 months (41 to not reached) for SOC + Doc (0·78, 0·66-0·93; p=0·006), and 76 months (39 to not reached) for SOC + ZA + Doc (0·82, 0·69-0·97; p=0·022). There was no evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effect (for any of the treatments) across prespecified subsets. Grade 3-5 adverse events were reported for 399 (32%) patients receiving SOC, 197 (32%) receiving SOC + ZA, 288 (52%) receiving SOC + Doc, and 269 (52%) receiving SOC + ZA + Doc. INTERPRETATION Zoledronic acid showed no evidence of survival improvement and should not be part of standard of care for this population. Docetaxel chemotherapy, given at the time of long-term hormone therapy initiation, showed evidence of improved survival accompanied by an increase in adverse events. Docetaxel treatment should become part of standard of care for adequately fit men commencing long-term hormone therapy. FUNDING Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council, Novartis, Sanofi-Aventis, Pfizer, Janssen, Astellas, NIHR Clinical Research Network, Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research.

ERS statement on the multidisciplinary respiratory management of ataxia telangiectasia.

Ataxia telangiectasia (A-T) is a rare, progressive, multisystem disease that has a large number of complex and diverse manifestations which vary with age. Patients with A-T die prematurely with the leading causes of death being respiratory diseases and cancer. Respiratory manifestations include immune dysfunction leading to recurrent upper and lower respiratory infections; aspiration resulting from dysfunctional swallowing due to neurodegenerative deficits; inefficient cough; and interstitial lung disease/pulmonary fibrosis. Malnutrition is a significant comorbidity. The increased radiosensitivity and increased risk of cancer should be borne in mind when requesting radiological investigations. Aggressive proactive monitoring and treatment of these various aspects of lung disease under multidisciplinary expertise in the experience of national multidisciplinary clinics internationally forms the basis of this statement on the management of lung disease in A-T. Neurological management is outwith the scope of this document.

Herbivores limit the population size of big-leaf mahogany trees in an Amazonian forest

The Janzen–Connell hypothesis proposes that specialized herbivores maintain high numbers of tree species in tropical forests by restricting adult recruitment so that host populations remain at low densities. We tested this prediction for the large timber tree species, Swietenia macrophylla, whose seeds and seedlings are preyed upon by small mammals and a host-specific moth caterpillar Steniscadia poliophaea, respectively. At a primary forest site, experimental seed additions to gaps – canopy-disturbed areas that enhance seedling growth into saplings – over three years revealed lower survival and seedling recruitment closer to conspecific trees and in higher basal area neighborhoods, as well as reduced subsequent seedling survival and height growth. When we included these Janzen–Connell effects in a spatially explicit individual-based population model, the caterpillar's impact was critical to limiting Swietenia's adult tree density, with a > 10-fold reduction estimated at 300 years. Our research demonstrates the crucial but oft-ignored linkage between Janzen–Connell effects on offspring and population-level consequences for a long-lived, potentially dominant tree species.