Disagreements in meta-analyses using outcomes measured on continuous or rating scales: observer agreement study

OBJECTIVE: To study the inter-observer variation related to extraction of continuous and numerical rating scale data from trial reports for use in meta-analyses. DESIGN: Observer agreement study. DATA SOURCES: A random sample of 10 Cochrane reviews that presented a result as a standardised mean difference (SMD), the protocols for the reviews and the trial reports (n=45) were retrieved. DATA EXTRACTION: Five experienced methodologists and five PhD students independently extracted data from the trial reports for calculation of the first SMD result in each review. The observers did not have access to the reviews but to the protocols, where the relevant outcome was highlighted. The agreement was analysed at both trial and meta-analysis level, pairing the observers in all possible ways (45 pairs, yielding 2025 pairs of trials and 450 pairs of meta-analyses). Agreement was defined as SMDs that differed less than 0.1 in their point estimates or confidence intervals. RESULTS: The agreement was 53% at trial level and 31% at meta-analysis level. Including all pairs, the median disagreement was SMD=0.22 (interquartile range 0.07-0.61). The experts agreed somewhat more than the PhD students at trial level (61% v 46%), but not at meta-analysis level. Important reasons for disagreement were differences in selection of time points, scales, control groups, and type of calculations; whether to include a trial in the meta-analysis; and data extraction errors made by the observers. In 14 out of the 100 SMDs calculated at the meta-analysis level, individual observers reached different conclusions than the originally published review. CONCLUSIONS: Disagreements were common and often larger than the effect of commonly used treatments. Meta-analyses using SMDs are prone to observer variation and should be interpreted with caution. The reliability of meta-analyses might be improved by having more detailed review protocols, more than one observer, and statistical expertise.

A 700-year paleoecological record of boreal ecosystem responses to climatic variation from Alaska

Recent observations and model simulations have highlighted the sensitivity of the forest - tundra ecotone to climatic forcing. In contrast, paleoecological studies have not provided evidence of tree-line fluctuations in response to Holocene climatic changes in Alaska, suggesting that the forest - tundra boundary in certain areas may be relatively stable at multicentennial to millennial time scales. We conducted a multiproxy study of sediment cores from an Alaskan lake near the altitudinal limits of key boreal-forest species. Paleoecological data were compared with independent climatic reconstructions to assess ecosystem responses of the forest - tundra boundary to Little Ice Age (LIA) climatic. uctuations. Pollen, diatom, charcoal, macrofossil, and magnetic analyses provide the first continuous record of vegetation -. re - climate interactions at decadal to centennial time scales during the past 700 years from southern Alaska. Boreal-forest diebacks characterized by declines of Picea mariana, P. glauca, and tree Betula occurred during the LIA ( AD 1500 - 1800), whereas shrubs ( Alnus viridis, Betula glandulosa/nana) and herbaceous taxa (Epilobium, Aconitum) expanded. Marked increases in charcoal abundance and changes in magnetic properties suggest increases in. re importance and soil erosion during the same period. In addition, the conspicuous reduction or disappearance of certain aquatic ( e. g., Isoetes, Nuphar, Pediastrum) and wetland ( Sphagnum) plants and major shifts in diatom assemblages suggest pronounced lake-level. uctuations and rapid ecosystem reorganization in response to LIA climatic deterioration. Our results imply that temperature shifts of 1 - 2 degrees C, when accompanied by major changes in moisture balance, can greatly alter high-altitudinal terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems, including conversion between boreal-forest tree line and tundra. The climatic and ecosystem variations in our study area appear to be coherent with changes in solar irradiance, suggesting that changes in solar activity contributed to the environmental instability of the past 700 years.

North-south palaeohydrological contrasts in the central Mediterranean during the Holocene: tentative synthesis and working hypotheses

On the basis of a multi-proxy approach and a strategy combining lacustrine and marine records along a north–south transect, data collected in the central Mediterranean within the framework of a collaborative project have led to reconstruction of high-resolution and well-dated palaeohydrological records and to assessment of their spatial and temporal coherency. Contrasting patterns of palaeohydrological changes have been evidenced in the central Mediterranean: south (north) of around 40° N of latitude, the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by lake-level maxima (minima), during an interval dated to ca. 10 300–4500 cal BP to the south and 9000–4500 cal BP to the north. Available data suggest that these contrasting palaeohydrological patterns operated throughout the Holocene, both on millennial and centennial scales. Regarding precipitation seasonality, maximum humidity in the central Mediterranean during the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by humid winters and dry summers north of ca. 40° N, and humid winters and summers south of ca. 40° N. This may explain an apparent conflict between palaeoclimatic records depending on the proxies used for reconstruction as well as the synchronous expansion of tree species taxa with contrasting climatic requirements. In addition, south of ca. 40° N, the first millennium of the Holocene was characterised by very dry climatic conditions not only in the eastern, but also in the central- and the western Mediterranean zones as reflected by low lake levels and delayed reforestation. These results suggest that, in addition to the influence of the Nile discharge reinforced by the African monsoon, the deposition of Sapropel 1 has been favoured (1) by an increase in winter precipitation in the northern Mediterranean borderlands, and (2) by an increase in winter and summer precipitation in the southern Mediterranean area. The climate reversal following the Holocene climate optimum appears to have been punctuated by two major climate changes around 7500 and 4500 cal BP. In the central Mediterranean, the Holocene palaeohydrological changes developed in response to a combination of orbital, ice-sheet and solar forcing factors. The maximum humidity interval in the south-central Mediterranean started ca. 10 300 cal BP, in correlation with the decline (1) of the possible blocking effects of the North Atlantic anticyclone linked to maximum insolation, and/or (2) of the influence of the remnant ice sheets and fresh water forcing in the North Atlantic Ocean. In the north-central Mediterranean, the lake-level minimum interval began only around 9000 cal BP when the Fennoscandian ice sheet disappeared and a prevailing positive NAO-(North Atlantic Oscillation) type circulation developed in the North Atlantic area. The major palaeohydrological oscillation around 4500–4000 cal BP may be a non-linear response to the gradual decrease in insolation, with additional key seasonal and interhemispheric changes. On a centennial scale, the successive climatic events which punctuated the entire Holocene in the central Mediterranean coincided with cooling events associated with deglacial outbursts in the North Atlantic area and decreases in solar activity during the interval 11 700–7000 cal BP, and to a possible combination of NAO-type circulation and solar forcing since ca. 7000 cal BP onwards. Thus, regarding the centennial-scale climatic oscillations, the Mediterranean Basin appears to have been strongly linked to the North Atlantic area and affected by solar activity over the entire Holocene. In addition to model experiments, a better understanding of forcing factors and past atmospheric circulation patterns behind the Holocene palaeohydrological changes in the Mediterranean area will require further investigation to establish additional high-resolution and well-dated records in selected locations around the Mediterranean Basin and in adjacent regions. Special attention should be paid to greater precision in the reconstruction, on millennial and centennial timescales, of changes in the latitudinal location of the limit between the northern and southern palaeohydrological Mediterranean sectors, depending on (1) the intensity and/or characteristics of climatic periods/oscillations (e.g. Holocene thermal maximum versus Neoglacial, as well as, for instance, the 8.2 ka event versus the 4 ka event or the Little Ice Age); and (2) on varying geographical conditions from the western to the eastern Mediterranean areas (longitudinal gradients). Finally, on the basis of projects using strategically located study sites, there is a need to explore possible influences of other general atmospheric circulation patterns than NAO, such as the East Atlantic–West Russian or North Sea–Caspian patterns, in explaining the apparent complexity of palaeoclimatic (palaeohydrological) Holocene records from the Mediterranean area.

Linking brain connectivity across different time scales with electroencephalogram, functional magnetic resonance imaging, and diffusion tensor imaging

Structural and functional connectivity are intrinsic properties of the human brain and represent the amount of cognitive capacities of individual subjects. These connections are modulated due to development, learning, and disease. Momentary adaptations in functional connectivity alter the structural connections, which in turn affect the functional connectivity. Thus, structural and functional connectivity interact on a broad timescale. In this study, we aimed to explore distinct measures of connectivity assessed by functional magnetic resonance imaging and diffusion tensor imaging and their association to the dominant electroencephalogram oscillatory property at rest: the individual alpha frequency (IAF). We found that in 21 healthy young subjects, small intraindividual temporal IAF fluctuations were correlated to increased blood oxygenation level-dependent signal in brain areas associated to working memory functions and to the modulation of attention. These areas colocalized with functionally connected networks supporting the respective functions. Furthermore, subjects with higher IAF show increased fractional anisotropy values in fascicles connecting the above-mentioned areas and networks. Hence, due to a multimodal approach a consistent functionally and structurally connected network related to IAF was observed.

Reliability and stability of lucid dream and nightmare frequency scales

Lucid dream and nightmare frequencies vary greatly between individuals and to assess these differences reliable instruments are needed. The present study aimed to examine the reliability of eight-point scales for measuring lucid dream and nightmare frequencies. The scales were administered twice (with a four-week interval) to 93 sport students. A re-test reliability for the lucid dream frequency was found r=.89 (p<.001) and for the nightmare frequency r=.75 (p<.001). Both eight-point scales appear to be reliable measures for assessing individual differences in lucid dream and nightmare frequencies.

A generalized anisotropic quadric yield criterion and its application to bone tissue at multiple length scales

Nonlinear computational analysis of materials showing elasto-plasticity or damage relies on knowledge of their yield behavior and strengths under complex stress states. In this work, a generalized anisotropic quadric yield criterion is proposed that is homogeneous of degree one and takes a convex quadric shape with a smooth transition from ellipsoidal to cylindrical or conical surfaces. If in the case of material identification, the shape of the yield function is not known a priori, a minimization using the quadric criterion will result in the optimal shape among the convex quadrics. The convexity limits of the criterion and the transition points between the different shapes are identified. Several special cases of the criterion for distinct material symmetries such as isotropy, cubic symmetry, fabric-based orthotropy and general orthotropy are presented and discussed. The generality of the formulation is demonstrated by showing its degeneration to several classical yield surfaces like the von Mises, Drucker–Prager, Tsai–Wu, Liu, generalized Hill and classical Hill criteria under appropriate conditions. Applicability of the formulation for micromechanical analyses was shown by transformation of a criterion for porous cohesive-frictional materials by Maghous et al. In order to demonstrate the advantages of the generalized formulation, bone is chosen as an example material, since it features yield envelopes with different shapes depending on the considered length scale. A fabric- and density-based quadric criterion for the description of homogenized material behavior of trabecular bone is identified from uniaxial, multiaxial and torsional experimental data. Also, a fabric- and density-based Tsai–Wu yield criterion for homogenized trabecular bone from in silico data is converted to an equivalent quadric criterion by introduction of a transformation of the interaction parameters. Finally, a quadric yield criterion for lamellar bone at the microscale is identified from a nanoindentation study reported in the literature, thus demonstrating the applicability of the generalized formulation to the description of the yield envelope of bone at multiple length scales.

The assessment of mindfulness with self-report measures: existing scales and open issues

During recent years, mindfulness-based approaches have been gaining relevance for treatment in clinical populations. Correspondingly, the empirical study of mindfulness has steadily grown; thus, the availability of valid measures of the construct is critically important. This paper gives an overview of the current status in the field of self-report assessment of mindfulness. All eight currently available and validated mindfulness scales (for adults) are evaluated, with a particular focus on their virtues and limitations and on differences among them. It will be argued that none of these scales may be a fully adequate measure of mindfulness, as each of them offers unique advantages but also disadvantages. In particular, none of them seems to provide a comprehensive assessment of all aspects of mindfulness in samples from the general population. Moreover, some scales may be particularly indicated in investigations focusing on specific populations such as clinical samples (Cognitive and Affective Mindfulness Scale, Southampton Mindfulness Questionnaire) or meditators (Freiburg Mindfulness Inventory). Three main open issues are discussed: (1) the coverage of aspects of mindfulness in questionnaires; (2) the nature of the relationships between these aspects; and (3) the validity of self-report measures of mindfulness. These issues should be considered in future developments in the self-report assessment of mindfulness.

Deciphering the driving forces of erosion rates on millennial to million-year timescales in glacially impacted landscapes: An example from the Western Alps

In many regions, tectonic uplift is the main driver of erosion over million-year (Myr) timescales, but climate changes can markedly affect the link between tectonics and erosion, causing transient variations in erosion rates. Here we study the driving forces of millennial to Myr-scale erosion rates in the French Western Alps, as estimated from in situ produced cosmogenic 10Be and a newly developed approach integrating detrital and bedrock apatite fission-track thermochronology. Millennial erosion rates from 10Be analyses vary between ~0.27 and ~1.33 m/kyr, similar to rates measured in adjacent areas of the Alps. Significant positive correlations of millennial erosion rates with geomorphic measures, in particular with the LGM ice thickness, reveal a strong transient morphological and erosional perturbation caused by repeated Quaternary glaciations. The perturbation appears independent of Myr-scale uplift and erosion gradients, with the effect that millennial erosion rates exceed Myr-scale erosion rates only in the internal Alps where the latter are low (<0.4 km/Myr). These areas, moreover, exhibit channels that clearly plot above a general linear positive relation between Myr-scale erosion rates and normalized steepness index. Glacial erosion acts irrespective of rock uplift and thus not only leads to an overall increase in erosion rates but also regulates landscape morphology and erosion rates in regions with considerable spatial gradients in Myr-scale tectonic uplift. Our study demonstrates that climate change, e.g., through occurrence of major glaciations, can markedly perturb landscape morphology and related millennial erosion rate patterns, even in regions where Myr-scale erosion rates are dominantly controlled by tectonics.

Tools for better SLM knowledge management and informed decision-making in addressing land degradation at different scales: the WOCAT–LADA–DESIRE methodology

Desertification research conventionally focuses on the problem – that is, degradation – while neglecting the appraisal of successful conservation practices. Based on the premise that Sustainable Land Management (SLM) experiences are not sufficiently or comprehensively documented, evaluated, and shared, the World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT) initiative (www.wocat.net), in collaboration with FAO’s Land Degradation Assessment in Drylands (LADA) project (www.fao.org/nr/lada/) and the EU’s DESIRE project (http://www.desire-project.eu/), has developed standardised tools and methods for compiling and evaluating the biophysical and socio-economic knowledge available about SLM. The tools allow SLM specialists to share their knowledge and assess the impact of SLM at the local, national, and global levels. As a whole, the WOCAT–LADA–DESIRE methodology comprises tools for documenting, self-evaluating, and assessing the impact of SLM practices, as well as for knowledge sharing and decision support in the field, at the planning level, and in scaling up identified good practices. SLM depends on flexibility and responsiveness to changing complex ecological and socioeconomic causes of land degradation. The WOCAT tools are designed to reflect and capture this capacity of SLM. In order to take account of new challenges and meet emerging needs of WOCAT users, the tools are constantly further developed and adapted. Recent enhancements include tools for improved data analysis (impact and cost/benefit), cross-scale mapping, climate change adaptation and disaster risk management, and easier reporting on SLM best practices to UNCCD and other national and international partners. Moreover, WOCAT has begun to give land users a voice by backing conventional documentation with video clips straight from the field. To promote the scaling up of SLM, WOCAT works with key institutions and partners at the local and national level, for example advisory services and implementation projects. Keywords: Sustainable Land Management (SLM), knowledge management, decision-making, WOCAT–LADA–DESIRE methodology.

Integrated reconstruction of Holocene millennial-scale environmental changes in Tierra del Fuego, southernmost South America

This study presents new paleoenvironmental data obtained from sedimentary cores from Lago Fagnano, an elon- gated lake located at 54°S in southernmost South America. Data from palynomorphs (pollen, spores and algae) and associated palynofacies as well as from diatom taxa retrieved from these cores compared with other regional proxies contribute to evaluate the similarities and differences in the climate patterns based on different proxies from southernmost Patagonia. The pollen analysis reveals that a grass steppe environment existed during the early Holocene (11,300–~8000 cal a BP) followed by a major vegetation change characterized by development of forest-steppe ecotone communities between ~8000 and ~6500 cal a BP, under more humid conditions. Between ~ 6500 and ~ 4000 cal a BP, expansion and colonization by Nothofagus forests reflect an increase in effec- tive moisture levels, while openness in the forest communities characterizes the region after ~ 1100 cal a BP. The palynological organic matter combined with the algal content reflects hydrological changes occurring in the lake and its nutrient status, probably in close relation with past climate oscillations. All these past ecological changes are closely related to oscillations in precipitation and temperature as a response to the variations in the latitudinal position and/or strength of the Southern Westerlies wind belt during the Holocene.

Transport of 234U in the Opalinus Clay on centimetre to decimetre scales

The Opalinus Clay formation in North Switzerland is a potential host rock for a deep underground radioactive waste repository. The distribution of U-238, U-234 and Th-230 was studied in rock samples of the Opalinus Clay from an exploratory borehole at Benken (Canton of Zurich) using MC-ICP-MS. The aim of U-234 was to assess the in situ, long-term migration behaviour in this rock. Very low hydraulic conductivities of the Opalinus Clay, reducing potential of the pore water and its chemical equilibrium with the host rock are expected to render both U-238 and Th-230 immobile. If U is heterogeneously distributed in the Opalinus Clay, gradients in the supply of U-234 from the rock matrix to the pore water by the decay of U-238 will be established. Diffusive redistribution separates U-234 from its immobile parent U-238 resulting in bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity disequilibria. These may provide a means of estimating the mobility of U-234 in the rock if the diffusion rate of U-234 is significant compared to its decay rate. Sampling was carried out on two scales. Drilling of cm-spaced samples from the drill-core was done to study mobility over short distances and elucidate possible small-scale lithological control. Homogenized 25-cm-long portions of a 2-m-long drill-core section were prepared to provide information on transport over a longer distance. Variations in U and/or Th content on the cm-scale between clays and carbonate-sandy layers are revealed by beta-scanning, which shows that the (dominant) clay is richer in both elements. Samples were digested using aqua regia followed by total HF dissolution, yielding two fractions. in all studied samples U was found to be concentrated in the HF digestion fraction. It has a high U/Th ratio and a study by SEM-EDS points to sub-mu m up to several mu m in size zircon grains as the main U-rich phase. This fraction consistently has U-234/U-238 activity ratios below unity. The minute zircon grains constitute the major reservoir of U in the rock and act as constant rate suppliers of U-234 into the rock matrix and the pore water. The aqua regia leach fraction was found to be enriched in Th, and complementary to the HF fraction, having U-234/U-238 activity ratios above unity. It is believed that these U activity ratios reflect the surplus of having U-234 delivered from the zircon grains. Some cm-spaced samples show bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios that are markedly out of equilibrium. In most of them a striking negative correlation between the total U content and the bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios is observed. This is interpreted to indicate net U-234 transfer from regions of higher supply of U-234 towards those of lower supply which is, in most cases, equivalent to transfer from clayey towards carbonate/sandy portions of the rock. In contrast, the 25 cm averaged samples all have uniform bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios in equilibrium, indicating U immobility in the last 1-1.5 Ma on this spatial scale. It is concluded that the small-scale lithological variations which govern U spatial distribution in the Opalinus Clay are the major factor determining U-234 in situ supply rates, regulating its diffusive fluxes and controlling the observed bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios. A simple box-model is presented to simulate the measured bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios and to give an additional insight into the studied system. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement of kT splitting scales in W→lv events at sqrt(s)=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of splitting scales, as defined by the kT clustering algorithm, is presented for final states containing a W boson produced in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. The measurement is based on the full 2010 data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36 pb(-1) which was collected using the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Cluster splitting scales are measured in events containing W bosons decaying to electrons or muons. The measurement comprises the four hardest splitting scales in a k(T) cluster sequence of the hadronic activity accompanying the W boson, and ratios of these splitting scales. Backgrounds such as multi-jet and top-quark-pair production are subtracted and the results are corrected for detector effects. Predictions from various Monte Carlo event generators at particle level are compared to the data. Overall, reasonable agreement is found with all generators, but larger deviations between the predictions and the data are evident in the soft regions of the splitting scales.