Tracing of patients lost to follow-up and HIV transmission: Mathematical modelling study based on two large ART programmes in Malawi

OBJECTIVES: Treatment as prevention depends on retaining HIV-infected patients in care. We investigated the effect on HIV transmission of bringing patients lost to follow up (LTFU) back into care. DESIGN: Mathematical model. METHODS: Stochastic mathematical model of cohorts of 1000 HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART), based on data from two clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi. We calculated cohort viral load (CVL; sum of individual mean viral loads each year) and used a mathematical relationship between viral load and transmission probability to estimate the number of new HIV infections. We simulated four scenarios: 'no LTFU' (all patients stay in care); 'no tracing' (patients LTFU are not traced); 'immediate tracing' (after missed clinic appointment); and, 'delayed tracing' (after six months). RESULTS: About 440 of 1000 patients were LTFU over five years. CVL (million copies/ml per 1000 patients) were 3.7 (95% prediction interval [PrI] 2.9-4.9) for no LTFU, 8.6 (95% PrI 7.3-10.0) for no tracing, 7.7 (95% PrI 6.2-9.1) for immediate, and 8.0 (95% PrI 6.7-9.5) for delayed tracing. Comparing no LTFU with no tracing the number of new infections increased from 33 (95% PrI 29-38) to 54 (95% PrI 47-60) per 1000 patients. Immediate tracing prevented 3.6 (95% PrI -3.3-12.8) and delayed tracing 2.5 (95% PrI -5.8-11.1) new infections per 1000. Immediate tracing was more efficient than delayed tracing: 116 and to 142 tracing efforts, respectively, were needed to prevent one new infection. CONCLUSION: Tracing of patients LTFU enhances the preventive effect of ART, but the number of transmissions prevented is small.

Vapnikite Ca3UO6 – a new double-perovskite mineral from pyrometamorphic larnite rocks of the Jabel Harmun, Palestinian Autonomy, Israel

The new mineral species vapnikite, Ca3UO6, was found in larnite pyrometamorphic rocks of the Hatrurim Formation at Jabel Harmun in the Judean desert, Palestinian Autonomy, Israel. Vapnikite is an analogue of the synthetic ordered double-perovskite β-Ca3UO6 and is isostructural with the natural fluorperovskite – cryolite Na3AlF6. Vapnikite Ca3UO6 (P21/n,Z = 2, a = 5.739(1), b = 5.951(1), c = 8.312(1) Å, β = 90.4(1)°, V = 283.9(1) Å3) forms yellow-brown xenomorphic grains with a strong vitreous lustre. Small grains up to 20 – 30 m m in size are wedged between larnite, brownmillerite and ye'elimite. Vapnikite has irregular fracture, cleavage and parting were not observed. The calculated density is 5.322 g cm–3, the microhardness is VHN25 = 534 kg mm–2 (mean of seven measurements) corresponding to the hardness of ~5 on the Mohs scale. The crystal structure of vapnikite Ca3UO6 differs from that of its synthetic analogue β-Ca3UO6 by having a larger degree of Ca, U disorder. Vapnikite formed at the high-temperature retrograde stage of pyrometamorphism when larnite rocks were altered by fluids/melts of high alkalinity.