Tropical cyclone-related socio-economic losses in the western North Pacific region

The western North Pacific (WNP) is the area of the world most frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs). However, little is known about the socio-economic impacts of TCs in this region, probably because of the limited relevant loss data. Here, loss data from Munich RE's NatCatSERVICE database is used, a high-quality and widely consulted database of natural disasters. In the country-level loss normalisation technique we apply, the original loss data are normalised to present-day exposure levels by using the respective country's nominal gross domestic product at purchasing power parity as a proxy for wealth. The main focus of our study is on the question of whether the decadal-scale TC variability observed in the Northwest Pacific region in recent decades can be shown to manifest itself economically in an associated variability in losses. It is shown that since 1980 the frequency of TC-related loss events in the WNP exhibited, apart from seasonal and interannual variations, interdecadal variability with a period of about 22 yr – driven primarily by corresponding variations of Northwest Pacific TCs. Compared to the long-term mean, the number of loss events was found to be higher (lower) by 14% (9%) in the positive (negative) phase of the decadal-scale WNP TC frequency variability. This was identified for the period 1980–2008 by applying a wavelet analysis technique. It was also possible to demonstrate the same low-frequency variability in normalised direct economic losses from TCs in the WNP region. The identification of possible physical mechanisms responsible for the observed decadal-scale Northwest Pacific TC variability will be the subject of future research, even if suggestions have already been made in earlier studies.

Diagnostic performance of high-sensitive troponin T in patients with renal insufficiency

In the present study, we wanted to (1) evaluate whether high-sensitive troponin T levels correlate with the grade of renal insufficiency and (2) test the accuracy of high-sensitive troponin T determination in patients with renal insufficiency for diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). In this cross-sectional analysis, all patients who received serial measurements of high-sensitive troponin T from August 1, 2010, to October 31, 2012, at the Department of Emergency Medicine were included. We analyzed data on baseline characteristics, reason for referral, medication, cardiovascular risk factors, and outcome in terms of presence of AMI along with laboratory data (high-sensitive troponin T, creatinine). A total of 1,514 patients (67% male, aged 65 ± 16 years) were included, of which 382 patients (25%) had moderate to severe renal insufficiency and significantly higher levels of high-sensitive troponin T on admission (0.028 vs 0.009, p <0.0001). In patients without AMI, high-sensitive troponin T correlated inversely with the estimated glomerular filtration rate (R = -0.12, p <0.0001). Overall, sensitivity of an elevated high-sensitive troponin for diagnosis of AMI was 0.64 (0.56 to 0.71) and the specificity was 0.48 (0.45 to 0.51). The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic for all patients was 0.613 (standard error [SE] 0.023), whereas it was 0.741 (SE 0.029) for patients with a Modification of Diet in Renal Disease estimated glomerular filtration rate >60 ml/min presenting with acute chest pain or dyspnea and 0.535 (SE 0.056) for patients with moderate to severe renal insufficiency presenting with acute chest pain or dyspnea. In conclusion, the diagnostic accuracy for presence of AMI of a baseline measurement of high-sensitive troponin in patients with renal insufficiency was poor and resembles tossing a coin.

Sex identification and PIT-tagging: tools and prospects for studying intersexual differences in freshwater fishes

This study evaluated a technique to allow the long-term monitoring of individual fishes of known sex in the wild using sex confirmation in close proximity to the reproductive period combined with individual tagging. Hundreds of partially migratory roach Rutilus rutilus were tagged with passive integrated transponders (PIT) following sex determination in spring and various performance measures were compared with fish tagged outside the reproductive period in autumn. Short-term survival was > 95% for R. rutilus sexed and tagged under natural field conditions. Total length (LT) did not affect the probability of survival within the size range tagged (119–280mm), nor were there differences in timing of migration the following season between individuals sexed and tagged in spring and individuals tagged in autumn (i.e. outside the reproductive period). Also, a similar per cent of R. rutilus sexed and tagged in spring and tagged in autumn migrated the following season (34·5 and 34·7%). Moreover, long-term recapture data revealed no significant differences in body condition between R. rutilus individuals sexed and tagged in spring, individuals tagged in autumn and unmanipulated individuals. The observed sex ratio of recaptured fish did not differ from the expected values of equal recapture rates between males and females. Hence, there is no observable evidence for an adverse effect of tagging close to the reproductive period and therefore this method is suitable for studying intersexual differences and other phenotypic traits temporarily expressed during reproduction at the individual level in fishes.

Cyclophosphamide: As bad as its reputation? Long-term single centre experience of cyclophosphamide side effects in the treatment of systemic autoimmune diseases

OBJECTIVES Despite new treatment modalities, cyclophosphamide (CYC) remains a cornerstone in the treatment of organ or life-threatening vasculitides and connective tissue disorders. We aimed at analysing the short- and long-term side-effects of CYC treatment in patients with systemic autoimmune diseases. METHODS Chart review and phone interviews regarding side effects of CYC in patients with systemic autoimmune diseases treated between 1984 and 2011 in a single university centre. Adverse events were stratified according to the "Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events" version 4. RESULTS A total of 168 patients were included. Cumulative CYC dose was 7.45 g (range 0.5-205 g). Gastro-intestinal side effects were seen in 68 events, hair loss occurred in 38 events. A total of 58 infections were diagnosed in 44/168 patients (26.2%) with 9/44 suffering multiple infections. Severity grading of infections was low in 37/58 cases (63.8%). One CYC-related infection-induced death (0.6%) was registered. Amenorrhoea occurred in 7/92 females (7.6%) with 5/7 remaining irreversible. In females with reversible amenorrhoea, prophylaxis with nafarelin had been administered. Malignancy was registered in 19 patients after 4.7 years (median, range 0.25-22.25) presenting as 4 premalignancies and 18 malignancies, 3 patients suffered 2 premalignancies/malignancies each. Patients with malignancies were older with a higher cumulative CYC dose. Death was registered in 28 patients (16.6%) with 2/28 probably related to CYC. CONCLUSIONS Considering the organ or life-threatening conditions which indicate the use of CYC, severe drug-induced health problems were rare. Our data confirm the necessity to follow-up patients long-term for timely diagnosis of malignancies. CYC side-effects do not per se justify prescription of newer drugs or biologic agents in the treatment of autoimmune diseases.

CODE’s new solar radiation pressure model for GNSS orbit determination

The Empirical CODE Orbit Model (ECOM) of the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE), which was developed in the early 1990s, is widely used in the International GNSS Service (IGS) community. For a rather long time, spurious spectral lines are known to exist in geophysical parameters, in particular in the Earth Rotation Parameters (ERPs) and in the estimated geocenter coordinates, which could recently be attributed to the ECOM. These effects grew creepingly with the increasing influence of the GLONASS system in recent years in the CODE analysis, which is based on a rigorous combination of GPS and GLONASS since May 2003. In a first step we show that the problems associated with the ECOM are to the largest extent caused by the GLONASS, which was reaching full deployment by the end of 2011. GPS-only, GLONASS-only, and combined GPS/GLONASS solutions using the observations in the years 2009–2011 of a global network of 92 combined GPS/GLONASS receivers were analyzed for this purpose. In a second step we review direct solar radiation pressure (SRP) models for GNSS satellites. We demonstrate that only even-order short-period harmonic perturbations acting along the direction Sun-satellite occur for GPS and GLONASS satellites, and only odd-order perturbations acting along the direction perpendicular to both, the vector Sun-satellite and the spacecraft’s solar panel axis. Based on this insight we assess in the third step the performance of four candidate orbit models for the future ECOM. The geocenter coordinates, the ERP differences w. r. t. the IERS 08 C04 series of ERPs, the misclosures for the midnight epochs of the daily orbital arcs, and scale parameters of Helmert transformations for station coordinates serve as quality criteria. The old and updated ECOM are validated in addition with satellite laser ranging (SLR) observations and by comparing the orbits to those of the IGS and other analysis centers. Based on all tests, we present a new extended ECOM which substantially reduces the spurious signals in the geocenter coordinate z (by about a factor of 2–6), reduces the orbit misclosures at the day boundaries by about 10 %, slightly improves the consistency of the estimated ERPs with those of the IERS 08 C04 Earth rotation series, and substantially reduces the systematics in the SLR validation of the GNSS orbits.

8p23 beta-defensin copy number determination by single-locus pseudogene-based paralog ratio tests risk bias due to low-frequency sequence variations.

BACKGROUND The copy number variation (CNV) in beta-defensin genes (DEFB) on human chromosome 8p23 has been proposed to contribute to the phenotypic differences in inflammatory diseases. However, determination of exact DEFB CN is a major challenge in association studies. Quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR), paralog ratio tests (PRT) and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) have been extensively used to determine DEFB CN in different laboratories, but inter-method inconsistencies were observed frequently. In this study we asked which one is superior among the three methods for DEFB CN determination. RESULTS We developed a clustering approach for MLPA and PRT to statistically correlate data from a single experiment. Then we compared qPCR, a newly designed PRT and MLPA for DEFB CN determination in 285 DNA samples. We found MLPA had the best convergence and clustering results of the raw data and the highest call rate. In addition, the concordance rates between MLPA or PRT and qPCR (32.12% and 37.99%, respectively) were unacceptably low with underestimated CN by qPCR. Concordance rate between MLPA and PRT (90.52%) was high but PRT systematically underestimated CN by one in a subset of samples. In these samples a sequence variant which caused complete PCR dropout of the respective DEFB cluster copies was found in one primer binding site of one of the targeted paralogous pseudogenes. CONCLUSION MLPA is superior to PRT and even more to qPCR for DEFB CN determination. Although the applied PRT provides in most cases reliable results, such a test is particularly sensitive to low-frequency sequence variations preferably accumulating in loci like pseudogenes which are most likely not under selective pressure. In the light of the superior performance of multiplex assays, the drawbacks of such single PRTs could be overcome by combining more test markers.

The mobility of Nb in rutile-saturated NaCl- and NaF-bearing aqueous fluids from 1-6.5 GPa and 300-800 °C

Rutile (TiO2) is an important host phase for high field strength elements (HFSE) such as Nb in metamorphic and subduction zone environments. The observed depletion of Nb in arc rocks is often explained by the hypothesis that rutile sequesters HFSE in the subducted slab and overlying sediment, and is chemically inert with respect to aqueous fluids evolved during prograde metamorphism in the forearc to subarc environment. However, field observations of exhumed terranes, and experimental studies, indicate that HFSE may be soluble in complex aqueous fluids at high pressure (i.e., >0.5 GPa) and moderate to high temperature (i.e., >300 degrees C). In this study, we investigated experimentally the mobility of Nb in NaCl- and NaF-bearing aqueous fluids in equilibrium with Nb-bearing rutile at pressure-temperature conditions applicable to fluid evolution in arc environments. Niobium concentrations in aqueous fluid at rutile saturation were measured directly by using a hydrothermal diamond-anvil cell (HDAC) and synchrotron X-ray fluorescence (SXRF) at 2.1 to 6.5 GPa and 300-500 degrees C, and indirectly by performing mass loss experiments in a piston-cylinder (PC) apparatus at similar to 1 GPa and 700-800 degrees C. The concentration of Nb in a 10 wt% NaCl aqueous fluid increases from 6 to 11 mu g/g as temperature increases from 300 to 500 degrees C, over a pressure range from 2.1 to 2.8 GPa, consistent with a positive temperature dependence. The concentration of Nb in a 20 wt% NaCl aqueous fluid varies from 55 to 150 mu g/g at 300 to 500 degrees C, over a pressure range from 1.8 to 6.4 GPa; however, there is no discernible temperature or pressure dependence. The Nb concentration in a 4 wt% NaF-bearing aqueous fluid increases from 180 to 910 mu g/g as temperature increases from 300 to 500 degrees C over the pressure range 2.1 to 6.5 GPa. The data for the F-bearing fluid indicate that the Nb content of the fluid exhibits a dependence on temperature between 300 and 500 degrees C at >= 2 GPa, but there is no observed dependence on pressure. Together, the data demonstrate that the hydrothermal mobility of Nb is strongly controlled by the composition of the fluid, consistent with published data for Ti. At all experimental conditions, however, the concentration of Nb in the fluid is always lower than coexisting rutile, consistent with a role for rutile in moderating the Nb budget of arc rocks.

Cell cycle reactivation of cochlear progenitor cells in neonatal FUCCI mice by a GSK3 small molecule inhibitor.

Due to the lack of regenerative capacity of the mammalian auditory epithelium, sensory hair cell loss results in permanent hearing deficit. Nevertheless, a population of tissue resident stem/progenitor cells has been recently described. Identification of methods to trigger their activity could lead to exploitation of their potential therapeutically. Here we validate the use of transgenic mice reporting cell cycle progression (FUCCI), and stemness (Lgr5-GFP), as a valuable tool to identify regulators of cell cycle re-entry of supporting cells within the auditory epithelium. The small molecule compound CHIR99021 was used to inhibit GSK3 activity. This led to a significant increase in the fraction of proliferating sphere-forming cells, labeled by the FUCCI markers and in the percentage of Lgr5-GFP + cells, as well as a selective increase in the fraction of S-G2-M cells in the Lgr5 + population. Using whole mount cultures of the organ of Corti we detected a statistically significant increment in the fraction of proliferating Sox2 supporting cells after CHIR99021 treatment, but only rarely appearance of novel MyoVIIa+/Edu + hair cells. In conclusion, these tools provide a robust mean to identify novel regulators of auditory organ regeneration and to clarify the contribution of stem cell activity.

Structural brain correlates of defective gesture performance in schizophrenia

INTRODUCTION The neural correlates of impaired performance of gestures are currently unclear. Lesion studies showed variable involvement of the ventro-dorsal stream particularly left inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) in gesture performance on command. However, findings cannot be easily generalized as lesions may be biased by the architecture of vascular supply and involve brain areas beyond the critical region. The neuropsychiatric syndrome of schizophrenia shares apraxic-like errors and altered brain structure without macroanatomic lesions. Schizophrenia may therefore qualify as a model disorder to test neural correlates of gesture impairments. METHODS We included 45 schizophrenia patients and 44 healthy controls in the study to investigate the structural brain correlates of defective gesturing in schizophrenia using voxel based morphometry. Gestures were tested in two domains: meaningful gestures (transitive and intransitive) on verbal command and imitation of meaningless gestures. Cut-off scores were used to separate patients with deficits, patients without deficits and controls. Group differences in gray matter (GM) volume were explored in an ANCOVA. RESULTS Patients performed poorer than controls in each gesture category (p < .001). Patients with deficits in producing meaningful gestures on command had reduced GM predominantly in left IFG, with additional involvement of right insula and anterior cingulate cortex. Patients with deficits differed from patients without deficits in right insula, inferior parietal lobe (IPL) and superior temporal gyrus. CONCLUSIONS Impaired performance of meaningful gestures on command was linked to volume loss predominantly in the praxis network in schizophrenia. Thus, the behavioral similarities between apraxia and schizophrenia are paralleled by structural alterations. However, few associations between behavioral impairment and structural brain alterations appear specific to schizophrenia.

Oral misoprostol for third stage of labor: a randomized placebo-controlled trial

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether orally administered misoprostol during the third stage of labor is efficient in reducing postpartum blood loss. METHODS: In a double-masked trial, during vaginal delivery women were randomly assigned to receive a single oral dose of misoprostol (600 microg) or placebo in third stage of labor, immediately after cord clamping. The third stage of labor was managed routinely by early cord clamping and controlled cord traction; oxytocin was administered only if blood loss seemed more than usual. Blood loss was estimated by the delivering physician and differences in hematocrit were measured before and after delivery. RESULTS: Mean (+/- standard error of the mean) estimated blood loss (345 +/- 19.5 mL versus 417 +/- 25.9 mL, P = .031) and hematocrit difference (4.5 +/- 0.9% versus 7.9 +/- 1.2%, P = .014) were significantly lower in women who received misoprostol than those who received placebo. Fewer women in the misoprostol group had postpartum hemorrhage (blood loss of at least 500 mL), but that difference was not statistically significant (7% versus 15%, P = .43). Additional oxytocin before or after placental separation was used less often in the misoprostol group (16% versus 38%, P = .047). There were no differences in the length of third stage of labor (8 +/- 0.9 minutes versus 9 +/- 1 minutes, P = .947). There were no differences in pain during third stage of labor, postpartum fever, or diarrhea, but shivering was more frequent in the misoprostol group. CONCLUSION: Oral misoprostol administered in the third stage of labor reduced postpartum blood loss and might be effective in reducing incidence of postpartum hemorrhage.

Factor XIII activation peptide is released into plasma upon cleavage by thrombin and shows a different structure compared to its bound form

The first step of coagulation factor XIII (FXIII) activation involves cleavage of the FXIII activation peptide (FXIII-AP) by thrombin. However, it is not known whether the FXIII-AP is released into plasma upon cleavage or remains attached to activated FXIII. The aim of the present work was to study the structure of free FXIII-AP, develop an assay for FXIII-AP determination in human plasma, and to answer the question whether FXIII-AP is released into plasma. We used ab-initio modeling and molecular dynamics simulations to study the structure of free FXIII-AP. We raised monoclonal and polyclonal antibodies against FXIII-AP and developed a highly sensitive and specific ELISA method for direct detection of FXIII-AP in human plasma. Structural analysis showed a putative different conformation of the free FXIII-AP compared to FXIII-AP bound to the FXIII protein. We concluded that it might be feasible to develop specific antibodies against the free FXIII-AP. Using our new FXIII-AP ELISA, we found high levels of FXIII-AP in in-vitro activated plasma samples and serum. We showed for the first time that FXIIIAP is detached from activated FXIII and is released into plasma, where it can be directly measured. Our findings may be of major clinical interest in regard to a possible new marker in thrombotic disease.

Distal Roux-en-Y gastric bypass for the treatment of morbid obesity

Background: Classical Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (cRYGB) is a combined restrictive and slightly malabsorptive operation. Excess-BMI-loss (EBMIL) in cRYGB is ~60%, but is diminished for super obese patients (BMI > 50 kg/m2). We therefore designed a modified, mainly malabsorptive distal RYGB (dRYGB). Methods: We report mid-term results after 77 consecutive dRYGB in which malabsorption is inversely related to the length of the common channel. The common channel was 100–150 cm long depending on preoperative BMI, the biliopancreatic limb was 100 cm long, which left >>250 cm for the alimentary channel. To avoid the potentially dangerous combination of malabsorption with sustained restriction the pouch size was increased to ~50ml and a 25 mm circular stapler was used for the gastro-jejunostomy. Results: 33 open and later on 44 laparoscopic interventions have been performed. Median preoperative BMI was 50.2 kg/m 2. No severe intraoperative complications have been observed and no anastomotic leakage was noted in the postoperative period. 5 patients needed balloon dilation of an anastomotic stricture. 3 marginal ulcers occurred at the gastrojejunostomy. The 54 patients with a follow-up time of over 12 months (median 24 months) showed an overall median BMI-reduction of 17 to an actual median BMI of 31.6 kg/m2, corresponding to a EBMIL of 74.5%. Obesity-related comorbid conditions were significantly reduced or cured. Intermittent diarrhea or steatorrhea in 12 patients was easily treated by pancreatic enzyme supplementation. Conclusion: dRYGB is technically more demanding than cRYGB, but shows excellent results in terms of weight-loss and therefore also in reduction of comorbidity especially in super-obese patients. Measuring all three limb lengths allows for a calibration of the malabsorption. The quality of food-intake being important to (super-) obese patients in terms of quality of life, a less restrictive pouch seems more adapted to them. Lifelong multidisciplinary follow-up is mandatory.

Novel lesion detection aids

Several non-invasive and novel aids for the detection of (and in some cases monitoring of) caries lesions have been introduced in the field of 'caries diagnostics' over the last 15 years. This chapter focusses on those available to dentists at the time of writing; continuing research is bound to lead to further developments in the coming years. Laser fluorescence is based on measurements of back-scattered fluorescence of a 655-nm light source. It enhances occlusal and (potentially) approximal lesion detection and enables semi-quantitative caries monitoring. Systematic reviews have identified false-positive results as a limitation. Quantitative light-induced fluorescence is another sensitive method to quantitatively detect and measure mineral loss both in enamel and some dentine lesions; again, the trade-offs with lower specificity when compared with clinical visual detection must be considered. Subtraction radiography is based on the principle of digitally superimposing two radiographs with exactly the same projection geometry. This method is applicable for approximal surfaces and occlusal caries involving dentine but is not yet widely available. Electrical caries measurements gather either site-specific or surface-specific information of teeth and tooth structure. Fixed-frequency devices perform best for occlusal dentine caries but the method has also shown promise for lesions in enamel and other tooth surfaces with multi-frequency approaches. All methods require further research and further validation in well-designed clinical trials. In the future, they could have useful applications in clinical practice as part of a personalized, comprehensive caries management system.

Do Words Matter? The Impact of Communication on the PIIGS' CDS and Bond Yield Spreads during Europe's Sovereign Debt Crisis

The paper aims to shed light on the role of communication in the European debt crisis. It examines the effects of public statements by ECB Governing Council members, EU officials and national representatives on the PIIGS' CDS and bond yield spreads. The focus lies on dovish statements that signal strong determination in the rescue of indebted countries, and hawkish statements that indicate limited commitment to support the PIIGS and protect its creditors. The analysis of daily data for the period between January 1, 2009 and August 12, 2011 in an EGARCH framework suggests that communication by representatives of Germany, France, and the EU as well as ECB Governing Council members had an immediate impact on both types of securities. No effects.

Do implicit motives and basic psychological needs interact to predict well-being and flow? Testing a universal hypothesis and a matching hypothesis

Self-Determination Theory (Deci and Ryan in Intrinsic motivation and self-determination in human behavior. Plenum Press, New York, 1985) suggests that certain experiences, such as competence, are equally beneficial to everyone’s well-being (universal hypothesis), whereas Motive Disposition Theory (McClelland in Human motivation. Scott, Foresman, Glenview, IL, 1985) predicts that some people, such as those with a high achievement motive, should benefit particularly from such experiences (matching hypothesis). Existing research on motives as moderators of the relationship between basic need satisfaction and positive outcomes supports both these seemingly inconsistent views. Focusing on the achievement motive, we sought to resolve this inconsistency by considering the specificity of the outcome variables. When predicting domain-specific well-being and flow, the achievement motive should interact with felt competence. However, when it comes to predicting general well-being and flow, felt competence should unfold its effects without being moderated by the achievement motive. Two studies confirmed these assumptions indicating that the universal and matching hypotheses are complementary rather than mutually exclusive.