Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria's ecosystem services

East Africa’s Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake’s shores and abroad. In particular, the lake’s fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria’s system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake’s social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks’ vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society’s vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales.

Patterns of the Remnant Cichlid Fauna in Southern Lake Victoria. Patrones de la Fauna de Ciclidos Remanentes en el Sur del Lago Victoria

During the years 1984–1987 Lake Victoria in East Africa experienced what is probably the largest mass extinction of contemporary vertebrates. Within a decade about 200 endemic species of haplochromine cichlids disappeared. The extinctions that occurred in the 1980s have been documented predominantly on species of offshore and sub-littoral waters in the Mwanza Gulf of southern Lake Victoria. Although the littoral fauna of southern Lake Victoria had not been examined in detail, their diversity seemed less affected by the changes in the ecosystem. We give results of the first comprehensive inventory of the littoral cichlid fauna in southern Lake Victoria and discuss its conservation status. We also report on new developments in the sub-littoral fauna after 1990. More than 50 littoral and 15 sub-littoral stations were sampled between the years 1991 to 1995. Of the littoral stations, 34 were sampled for the first time. One hundred sixty three species of haplochromines were collected. Of these, 102 species were previously unknown. About two thirds of them live in rocky areas that were sampled for the first time. Littoral rocky habitats harbored the highest diversity. Since 1990, however, 13 more species disappeared from established sampling stations in littoral habitats. Fishing practices, spreading of exotic fishes, water hyacinth, and eutrophication are considered important threats to the littoral fauna. Also in the upper sub-littoral the number of species declined further. On deeper sub-littoral mud bottoms individual and species numbers increased again, although they are nowhere close to those found before the Nile perch (Lates niloticus) upsurge. This fauna differs from the well studied pre-Nile perch fauna. At well-established sampling stations, the sub-littoral zone is dominated by previously unknown species, and some known species have performed dramatic habitat shifts.

The Nile perch invasion in Lake Victoria: cause or consequence of the haplochromine decline?

We review alternative hypotheses and associated mechanisms to explain Lake Victoria’s Nile perch takeover and concurrent reduction in haplochromines through a (re)analysis of long term climate, limnological and stock observations in comparison with size-spectrum model predictions of co-existence, extinction and demographic change. The empirical observations are in agreement with the outcomes of the model containing two interacting species with life-histories matching Nile perch and a generalized haplochromine. The dynamic interactions may have depended on size related differences in early juvenile mortality: mouth-brooding haplochromines escape predation mortality in early life stages, unlike Nile perch that have miniscule planktonic eggs and larvae. In our model predation on the latter by planktivorous haplochromine fry act as a stabilizing factor for co-existence, but external mortality on the haplochromines would disrupt this balance in favor of Nile perch. To explain the observed switch, mortality on haplochromines would need to be much higher than the fishing mortality that can be realistically re-constructed from observations. Abrupt concomitant changes in algal and zooplankton composition, decreased water column transparency, and widespread hypoxia from increased eutrophication most likely caused haplochromine biomass decline. We hypothesize that the shift to Nile perch was a consequence of an externally caused, climate triggered, decrease in haplochromine biomass and associated recruitment failure rather than a direct cause of the introduction.

The sediment record of the past 200 years in a Swiss high-alpine lake: Hagelseewli (2339 ma.s.l.)

Sediment cores spanning the last two centuries were taken in Hagelseewli, a high-elevation lake in the Swiss Alps. Contiguous 0.5 cm samples were analysed for biological remains, including diatoms, chironomids, cladocera, chrysophyte cysts, and fossil pigments. In addition, sedimentological and geochemical variables such as loss-on-ignition, total carbon, nitrogen, sulphur, grain-size and magnetic mineralogy were determined. The results of these analyses were compared to a long instrumental air temperature record that was adapted to the elevation of Hagelseewli by applying mean monthly lapse rates. During much of the time, the lake is in the shadow of a high cliff to the south, so that the lake is ice-covered during much of the year and thus decoupled from climatic forcing. Lake biology is therefore influenced more by the duration of ice-cover than by direct temperature effects during the short open-water season. Long periods of ice-cover result in anoxic water conditions and dissolution of authigenic calcites, leading to carbonate-free sediments. The diversity of chironomid and cladoceran assemblages is extremely low, whereas that of diatom and chrysophyte cyst assemblages is much higher. Weak correlations were observed between the diatom and chrysophyte cyst assemblages on the one hand and summer or autumn air temperatures on the other, but the proportion of variance explained is low, so that air temperature alone cannot account for the degree of variation observed in the paleolimnological record. Analyses of mineral magnetic parameters, spheroidal carbonaceous particles and lead suggest that atmospheric pollution has had a significant effect on the sediments of Hagelseewli, but little effect on the water quality as reflected in the lake biota.

The sonic hedgehog signaling pathway and the development of pharyngeal arch Derivatives in Haplochromis piceatus, a Lake Victoria cichlid

Objectives Pharyngeal arches develop in the head and neck regions, and give rise to teeth, oral jaws, the hyoid bone, operculum, gills, and pharyngeal jaws in teleosts. In this study, the expression patterns of genes in the sonic hedgehog (shh), wnt, ectodysplasin A (eda), and bone morphogenetic protein (bmp) pathways were investigated in the pharyngeal arches of Haplochromis piceatus, one of the Lake Victoria cichlids. Furthermore, the role of the shh pathway in pharyngeal arch development in H. piceatus larvae was investigated. Methods The expression patterns of lymphocyte enhancer binding factor 1 (lef1), ectodysplasin A receptor (edar), shh, patched 1 (ptch1), bmp4, sp5 transcription factor (sp5), sclerostin domain containing 1a (sostdc1a), and dickkopf 1 (dkk1) were investigated in H. piceatus larvae by in situ hybridization. The role of the shh pathway was investigated through morphological phenotypic characterization after its inhibition. Results We found that lef1, edar, shh, ptch1, bmp4, dkk1, sostdc1a, and sp5 were expressed not only in the teeth, but also in the operculum and gill filaments of H piceatus larvae. After blocking the shh pathway using cyclopamine, we observed ectopic shh expression and the disappearance of ptch1 expression. After six weeks of cyclopamine treatment, an absence of teeth in the oral upper jaws and a poor outgrowth of premaxilla, operculum, and gill filaments in juvenile H. piceatus were observed. Conclusions These results suggest that the shh pathway is important for the development of pharyngeal arch derivatives such as teeth, premaxilla, operculum, and gill filaments in H. piceatus.

Palynostratigraphy of the last centuries in Switzerland based on 23 lake and mire deposits: chronostratigraphic pollen markers, regional patterns, and local histories

A total of 23 pollen diagrams [stored in the Alpine Palynological Data-Base (ALPADABA), Geobotanical Institute, Bern] cover the last 100 to over 1000 years. The sites include 15 lakes, seven mires, and one soil profile distributed in the Jura Mts (three sites), Swiss Plateau (two sites), northern Pre-Alps and Alps (six sites), central Alps (five sites), southern Alps (three sites), and southern Pre-Alps (four sites) in the western and southern part of Switzerland or just outside the national borders. The pollen diagrams have both a high taxonomic resolution and a high temporal resolution, with sampling distances of 0.5–3 cm, equivalent to 1 to 11 years for the last 100 years and 8 to 130 years for earlier periods. The chronology is based on absolute dating (14 sites: 210Pb 11 sites; 14C six sites; varve counting two sites) or on biostratigraphic correlation among pollen diagrams. The latter relies mainly on trends in Cannabis sativa, Ambrosia, Mercurialis annua, and Ostrya-type pollen. Individual pollen stratigraphies are discussed and sites are compared within each region. The principle of designating local, extra-local, and regional pollen signals and vegetation is exemplified by two pairs of sites lying close together. Trends in biostratigraphies shared by a major part of the pollen diagrams allow the following generalisations. Forest declined in phases since medieval times up to the late 19th century. Abies and Fagus declined consistently, whereas the behaviour of short-lived trees and trees of moist habitats differed among sites (Alnus glutinosa-type, Alnus viridis, Betula, Corylus avellana). In the present century, however, Picea and Pinus increased, followed by Fraxinus excelsior in the second half of this century. Grassland (traced by Gramineae and Plantago lanceolata-type pollen) increased, replacing much of the forest, and declined again in the second half of this century. Nitrate enrichment of the vegetation (traced by Urtica) took place in the first half of this century. These trends reflect the intensification of forest use and the expansion of grassland from medieval times up to the end of the last century, whereas subsequently parts of the grassland became used more intensively and the marginal parts were abandoned for forest regrowth. In most pollen diagrams human impact is the dominant factor in explaining inferred changes in vegetation, but climatic change plays a role at three sites.

The English of The Sleeping Lady: An exploration of the historical and current influences on the English of Kosrae

Kosrae, or ‘The Island of The Sleeping Lady’ as it is known to locals, is the most remote island of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), located in the western Pacific. FSM is an independent sovereign nation consisting of four state in total: Pohnpei, Chuuk, Yap and Kosrae. First claimed by the Spanish, who were forced to cede FSM to Germany in 1899. In 1914, the Japanese took military possession of the region resulting in considerable economic, social and political change for the islands’ inhabitants. By 1947 after WWII, the islands formed part of the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands commissioned by the UN and administered by the US. The FSM became an independent nation in 1986 while still retaining affiliation with the US under a ‘Compact of Free Association’ encouraging the officiating of English as a language of FSM, alongside local languages. Here I examine the presence and uses of English in Kosrae with reference to these socio-historical influences. First, I discuss the extralinguistic factors which have shaped the English that is currently found on Kosrae. Secondly, I assess the use of English in this community in light of Schneider’s (2007) ‘Dynamic Model’. Finally, an overview of the salient linguistic characteristics of Kosraean English, based on data collected in informal conversations on the island, will be presented. The overall objective is to present a socio-historical, political and linguistic description of a hitherto unexamined English emerging in a postcolonial environment. Schneider, E. (2007). Postcolonial Englishes. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Research Interests: Global Englishes

Extreme River Floods in Western Switzerland and the Lake of Constance Region in the Period Prior to Instrumental Measurements

The floods that occurred on the Aare and Rhine rivers in May 2015 and the mostly successful handling of this event in terms of flood protection measures are a good reminder of how important it is to comprehend the causes and processes involved in such natural hazards. While the needed data series of gauge measurements and peak discharge calculations reach back to the 19th century, historical records dating further back in time can provide additional and useful information to help understanding extreme flood events and to evaluate prevention measures such as river dams and corrections undertaken prior to instrumental measurements. In my PhD project I will use a wide range of historical sources to assess and quantify past extreme flood events. It is part of the SNF-funded project “Reconstruction of the Genesis, Process and Impact of Major Pre-instrumental Flood Events of Major Swiss Rivers Including a Peak Discharge Quantification” and will cover the research locations Fribourg (Saane R.), Burgdorf (Emme R.), Thun, Bern (both Aare R.), and the Lake of Constance at the locations Lindau, Constance and Rorschach. My main goals are to provide a long time series of quantitative data for extreme flood events, to discuss the occurring changes in these data, and to evaluate the impact of the aforementioned human influences on the drainage system. Extracting information given in account books from the towns of Basel and Solothurn may also enable me to assess the frequency and seasonality of less severe river floods. Finally, historical information will be used for remodeling the historical hydrological regime to homogenize the historical data series to modern day conditions and thus make it comparable to the data provided by instrumental measurements. The method I will apply for processing all information provided by historical sources such as chronicles, newspapers, institutional records, as well as flood marks, paintings and archeological evidence has been developed and successfully applied to the site of Basel by Wetter et al. (2011). They have also shown that data homogenization is possible by reconstructing previous stream flow conditions using historical river profiles and by carefully observing and re-constructing human changes of the river bed and its surroundings. Taken all information into account, peak discharges for past extreme flood events will be calculated with a one-dimensional hydrological model.

Reconstruction of Holocene vegetation dynamics at Lac de Bretaye, a high-mountain lake in the Swiss Alps

A deeper understanding of past vegetation dynamics is required to better assess future vegetation responses to global warming in the Alps. Lake sediments from Lac de Bretaye, a small subalpine lake in the Northern Swiss Alps (1780 m a.s.l.), were analysed to reconstruct past vegetation dynamics for the entire Holocene, using pollen, macrofossil and charcoal analyses as main proxies. The results show that timberline reached the lake’s catchment area at around 10,300 cal. BP, supporting the hypothesis of a delayed postglacial afforestation in the Northern Alps. At the same time, thermophilous trees such as Ulmus, Tilia and Acer established in the lowlands and expanded to the altitude of the lake, forming distinctive boreo-nemoral forests with Betula, Pinus cembra and Larix decidua. From about 5000 to 3500 cal. BP, thermophilous trees declined because of increasing human land use, mainly driven by the mass expansion of Picea abies and severe anthropogenic fire activity. From the Bronze Age onwards (c. 4200–2800 cal. BP), grazing indicators and high values for charcoal concentration and influx attest an intensifying human impact, fostering the expansion of Alnus viridis and Picea abies. Hence, biodiversity in alpine meadows increased, whereas forest diversity declined, as can be seen in other regional records. We argue that the anticipated climate change and decreasing human impact in the Alps today will not only lead to an upward movement of timberline with consequent loss of area for grasslands, but also to a disruption of Picea abies forests, which may allow the re-expansion of thermophilous tree species.