Cold-season temperatures in the European Alps during the past millennium: variability, seasonality and recent trends

This study presents a proxy-based, quantitative reconstruction of cold-season (mean October to May, TOct–May) air temperatures covering nearly the entire last millennium (AD 1060–2003, some hiatuses). The reconstruction was based on subfossil chrysophyte stomatocyst remains in the varved sediments of high-Alpine Lake Silvaplana, eastern Swiss Alps (46°27’N, 9°48′W, 1791 m a.s.l.). Previous studies have demonstrated the reliability of this proxy by comparison to meteorological data. Cold-season air temperatures could therefore be reconstructed quantitatively, at a high resolution (5-yr) and with high chronological accuracy. Spatial correlation analysis suggests that the reconstruction reflects cold season climate variability over the high- Alpine region and substantial parts of central and western Europe. Cold-season temperatures were characterized by a relatively stable first part of the millennium until AD 1440 (2σ of 5-yr mean values = 0.7 °C) and highly variable TOct–May after that (AD 1440–1900, 2σ of 5-yr mean values = 1.3 °C). Recent decades (AD, 1991-present) were unusually warm in the context of the last millennium (exceeding the 2σ-range of the mean decadal TOct–May) but this warmth was not unprecedented. The coolest decades occurred from AD 1510–1520 and AD 1880–1890. The timing of extremely warm and cold decades is generally in good agreement with documentary data representing Switzerland and central European lowlands. The transition from relatively stable to highly variable TOct–May coincided with large changes in atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic region. Comparison of reconstructed cold season temperatures to the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) during the past 1000 years showed that the relatively stable and warm conditions at the study site until AD 1440 coincided with a persistent positive mode of the NAO. We propose that the transition to large TOct–May variability around AD 1440 was linked to the subsequent absence of this persistent zonal flow pattern, which would allow other climatic drivers to gain importance in the study area. From AD 1440–1900, the similarity of reconstructed TOct–May to reconstructed air pressure in the Siberian High suggests a relatively strong influence of continental anticyclonic systems on Alpine cold season climate parameters during periods when westerly airflow was subdued. A more continental type of atmospheric circulation thus seems to be characteristic for the Little Ice Age in Europe. Comparison of Toct–May to summer temperature reconstructions from the same study site shows that, as expected, summer and cold season temperature trends and variability differed completely throughout nearly the entire last 1000 years. Since AD 1980, however, summer and cold season temperatures show a simultaneous, strong increase, which is unprecedented in the context of the last millennium. We suggest that the most likely explanation for this recent trend is anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing.

IMILAST: A community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset - the period 1989-2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases.

Serious suicidal behaviors: socio-demographic and clinical features in a multinational, multicenter sample

BACKGROUND: Declared suicidal intent and physical danger are both considered important components in defining suicidal behaviors (SB). AIMS: 1) To investigate characteristics of serious suicidal behaviors (SSB), defined by either suicidal intent or lethality; 2) To determine any difference in terms of socio-demographic, clinical and/or service usage variables between SSB and non-serious suicidal behaviors (NSSB). METHODS: A total of 2631 contacts for SB were registered in the context of the MONSUE (Monitoring Suicidal Behavior in Europe) study project. Demographic and clinical information were registered. ICD-10 was used for classifying data about psychiatric diagnoses, methods used for SB and injuries reported. Clear intentionality, high-case fatality methods and serious injuries all defined SSB (n = 1169; 44.4%) RESULTS: SSB were more often preceded by a contact with an inpatient (either psychiatric or somatic) rather than an outpatient service. Among those having a previous history of SB, SSB subjects had fewer contacts with health services before the previous attempt. The strongest predictors for SSB appeared to be older age and not professing a religion. CONCLUSION: Many of the known factors contributing to the risk of completed suicide were also present for SSB. Our findings on service usage by suicide attempters show which aspects of mental health services should be strengthened in order to improve suicide prevention.

Demographic model of the Swiss cattle population for the years 2009-2011 stratified by gender, age and production type

Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD). The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef), age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years). The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm). The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants).

Man-induced activities modify demographic parameters in a long-lived species: effects of poisoning and health policies

Recent changes in sanitary policies within the European Union (EU) concerning disposal of carcasses of domestic animals and the increase of non-natural mortality factors, such as illegal poisoning, are threatening European vultures. However, the effects of anthropogenic activities on demographic parameters are poorly studied. Using a long-term study (1994–2011) of the threatened Pyrenean Bearded Vulture Gypaetus barbatus population, we assess the variation in the proportion of breeding pairs, egg-laying dates, clutch size, breeding success, and survival following a sharp reduction in food availability in 2005 due to the application of restrictive sanitary policies decreasing livestock carcass availability. We found a delay in laying dates and a regressive trend in clutch size, breeding success, and survival following policy change. The maintenance of specific supplementary feeding stations for Bearded Vultures probably reduced the negative effects of illegal poisoning and food shortages, which mainly affected subadult survival. A drop in food availability may have produced changes in demographic parameters and an increase in mortality due to an increased exposure to contaminated food. As a result, supplementary feeding as a precautionary measure can be a useful tool to reduce illegal poisoning and declines in demographic parameters until previous food availability scenarios are achieved. This study shows how anthropogenic activities through human health regulations that affect habitat quality can suddenly modify demographic parameters in long-lived species, including those, such as survival, with high sensitivity to population growth rate.

Suicide in HIV-Infected Individuals and the General Population in Switzerland, 1988-2008

Objective High rates of suicide have been described in HIV-infected patients, but it is unclear to what extent the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has affected suicide rates. The authors examined time trends and predictors of suicide in the pre-HAART (1988—1995) and HAART (1996—2008) eras in HIV-infected patients and the general population in Switzerland. Method The authors analyzed data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and the Swiss National Cohort, a longitudinal study of mortality in the Swiss general population. The authors calculated standardized mortality ratios comparing HIV-infected patients with the general population and used Poisson regression to identify risk factors for suicide. Results From 1988 to 2008, 15,275 patients were followed in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study for a median duration of 4.7 years. Of these, 150 died by suicide (rate 158.4 per 100,000 person-years). In men, standardized mortality ratios declined from 13.7 (95% CI=11.0—17.0) in the pre-HAART era to 3.5 (95% CI=2.5—4.8) in the late HAART era. In women, ratios declined from 11.6 (95% CI=6.4—20.9) to 5.7 (95% CI=3.2—10.3). In both periods, suicide rates tended to be higher in older patients, in men, in injection drug users, and in patients with advanced clinical stage of HIV illness. An increase in CD4 cell counts was associated with a reduced risk of suicide. Conclusions Suicide rates decreased significantly with the introduction of HAART, but they remain above the rate observed in the general population, and risk factors for suicide remain similar. HIV-infected patients remain an important target group for suicide prevention.

Misleading Population Estimates: Biases and Consistency of Visual Surveys and Matrix Modelling in the Endangered Bearded Vulture

Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.

Study protocol: Transition from localized low back pain to chronic widespread pain in general practice: identification of risk factors, preventive factors and key elements for treatment--a cohort study

Background Chronic localized pain syndromes, especially chronic low back pain (CLBP), are common reasons for consultation in general practice. In some cases chronic localized pain syndromes can appear in combination with chronic widespread pain (CWP). Numerous studies have shown a strong association between CWP and several physical and psychological factors. These studies are population-based cross-sectional and do not allow for assessing chronology. There are very few prospective studies that explore the predictors for the onset of CWP, where the main focus is identifying risk factors for the CWP incidence. Until now there have been no studies focusing on preventive factors keeping patients from developing CWP. Our aim is to perform a cross sectional study on the epidemiology of CLBP and CWP in general practice and to look for distinctive features regarding resources like resilience, self-efficacy and coping strategies. A subsequent cohort study is designed to identify the risk and protective factors of pain generalization (development of CWP) in primary care for CLBP patients. Methods/Design Fifty-nine general practitioners recruit consecutively, during a 5 month period, all patients who are consulting their family doctor because of chronic low back pain (where the pain is lasted for 3 months). Patients are asked to fill out a questionnaire on pain anamnesis, pain-perception, co-morbidities, therapy course, medication, socio demographic data and psychosomatic symptoms. We assess resilience, coping resources, stress management and self-efficacy as potential protective factors for pain generalization. Furthermore, we raise risk factors for pain generalization like anxiety, depression, trauma and critical life events. During a twelve months follow up period a cohort of CLBP patients without CWP will be screened on a regular basis (3 monthly) for pain generalization (outcome: incident CWP). Discussion This cohort study will be the largest study which prospectively analyzes predictors for transition from CLBP to CWP in primary care setting. In contrast to the typically researched risk factors, which increase the probability of pain generalization, this study also focus intensively on protective factors, which decrease the probability of pain generalization.

[Aortic aneurysms and aortic dissection : Epidemiology, pathophysiology and diagnostics.]

Aortic aneurysms and aortic dissection represent a significant health risk due to the demographic developments and current life styles. The mortality of ruptured aortic aneurysms is up to 80 % and the prevalence of aneurysms varies depending on the localization (thoracic or abdominal). Most commonly affected is the infrarenal abdominal aorta; however, there is evidence that the prevalence is diminishing but in contrast the incidence of thoracic aortic aneurysms is increasing. Aortic dissection is often fatal and is the most common acute aortic disease but the incidence is presumed to be underestimated. The pathogenesis of aortic aneurysms is manifold and is based on an interplay between degenerative, proteolytic and inflammatory processes. An aortic dissection arises from a tear in the intima which results in a separation of the aortic wall layers with infiltration of bleeding and the danger of aortic rupture. Various genetic disorders of connective tissue promote degeneration of the aortic media, most notably Marfan syndrome. Risk factors for aortic aneurysms and aortic dissection are nicotine abuse, arterial hypertension, age and male gender. Aortic aneurysms initially have an uneventful course and as a consequence are mostly discovered incidentally. The clinical course and symptoms of aortic dissection are very much dependent on the section of the aorta affected and the manifestations are manifold. Acute aortic dissection is in 80 % of cases first manifested as sudden extremely severe pain. The diagnostics and subsequent course control can be achieved by a variety of imaging procedures but the modality of choice is computed tomography.

Global Change and the World's Mountains-Research Needs and Emerging Themes for Sustainable Development A Synthesis From the 2010 Perth II Conference

The conference on Global Change and the World’s Mountains held in Perth, Scotland, in 2010 offered a unique opportunity to analyze the state and progress of mountain research and its contribution to sustainable mountain development, as well as to reflect on required reorientations of research agendas. In this paper we provide the results of a three-step assessment of the research presented by 450 researchers from around the world. First, we determined the state of the art of mountain research and categorized it based on the analytical structure of the Global Land Project (GLP 2005). Second, we identified emerging themes for future research. Finally, we assessed the contribution of mountain research to sustainable development along the lines of the Grand Challenges in Global Sustainability Research (International Council for Science 2010). Analysis revealed that despite the growing recognition of the importance of more integrative research (inter- and transdisciplinary), the research community gathered in Perth still focuses on environmental drivers of change and on interactions within ecological systems. Only a small percentage of current research seeks to enhance understanding of social systems and of interactions between social and ecological systems. From the ecological systems perspective, a greater effort is needed to disentangle and assess different drivers of change and to investigate impacts on the rendering of ecosystem services. From the social systems perspective, significant shortcomings remain in understanding the characteristics, trends, and impacts of human movements to, within, and out of mountain areas as a form of global change. Likewise, sociocultural drivers affecting collective behavior as well as incentive systems devised by policy and decision makers are little understood and require more in-depth investigation. Both the complexity of coupled social– ecological systems and incomplete data sets hinder integrated systems research. Increased understanding of linkages and feedbacks between social and ecological systems will help to identify nonlinearities and thresholds (tipping points) in both system types. This presupposes effective collaboration between ecological and social sciences. Reflections on the Grand Challenges in Sustainability Research put forth by the International Council for Science (2010) reveal the need to intensify research on effective responses and innovations. This will help to achieve sustainable development in mountain regions while maintaining the core competence of mountain research in forecasting and observation.

Eligibility for and outcome of hepatitis C treatment of HIV-coinfected individuals in clinical practice: the Swiss HIV cohort study

BACKGROUND: Morbidity and mortality of individuals co-infected with HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) is often determined by the course of their HCV infection. Only a selected proportion of those in need of HCV treatment are studied in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We analysed the prevalence of HCV infection in a large cohort, the number of individuals requiring treatment, the eligibility for HCV treatment, and the outcome of the combination therapy with pegylated interferon-a and ribavirin in routine practice. METHODS: We analysed prescription patterns of HCV treatment and treatment outcomes among participants from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with detectable hepatitis C viraemia (between January 2001 and October 2004). Efficacy was measured by the number of patients with undetectable HCV RNA at the end of therapy (EOTR) and at 6 months after treatment termination (SVR). Intention-to-continue-treatment principles were used. RESULTS: A total of 2150 of 7048 (30.5%) participants were coinfected with HCV; HCV RNA was detected in 60%, and not assessed in 26% of HCV-antibody-positive individuals. One hundred and sixty (12.5%) of HCV-RNA-positive patients started treatment. In patients infected with HCV genotypes 1/4 or 2/3, EOTR was achieved in 43.3% and 81.2% of patients, respectively, and SVR rates were 28.4% and 51.8%, respectively. More than 50% of the HCV-treated patients would have been excluded from two large published RCTs due to demographic, clinical and laboratory criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Despite clinical and psychosocial obstacles encountered in clinical practice, HCV treatment in HIV-coinfected individuals is feasible with results similar to those obtained in RCTs.

Chronic pulmonary valve insufficiency after repaired tetralogy of Fallot: diagnostics, reoperations and reconstruction possibilities

Complete correction of Tetralogy of Fallot, the most common cyanotic congenital heart defect, has now become routine. However, late residual lesions, primarily chronic pulmonary valve insufficiency, may have a negative impact on right-ventricular function, leading to the need for reoperation to insert a competent valve at the right-ventricular outflow. The diagnostic modalities pertaining to the failing right ventricle, the timing for eventual reintervention and the various surgical reconstruction possibilities of the right-ventricular outflow tract are still controversial and evolving, and are reviewed with a brief overview on current trends and future outlooks.

Opportunities and risks in reconciling conservation and development in a post-Soviet setting: The example of the Tajik National Park

In the Tajik National Park (TNP) - a high-altitude area of nearly 26,000 km2 in Central Asia - past and present human activities visibly contrast with standard conservation requirements for protected areas worldwide. This paper focuses on resource management, and highlights three major processes that threaten both the sustainable use of natural resources and the preservation of nature per se: (i) intensified use of biomass as a fuel resource, (ii) inappropriate pasture management, and (iii) increased pressure on endangered wildlife. From analysis of these processes - their historical background, root causes, trends and interrelationships - options and needs to improve park management are proposed and discussed.

The international spine registry SPINE TANGO: status quo and first results

With an official life time of over 5 years, Spine Tango can meanwhile be considered the first international spine registry. In this paper we present an overview of frequency statistics of Spine Tango for demonstrating the genesis of questionnaire development and the constantly increasing activity in the registry. Results from two exemplar studies serve for showing concepts of data analysis applied to a spine registry. Between 2002 and 2006, about 6,000 datasets were submitted by 25 centres. Descriptive analyses were performed for demographic, surgical and follow-up data of three generations of the Spine Tango surgery and follow-up forms. The two exemplar studies used multiple linear regression models to identify potential predictor variables for the occurrence of dura lesions in posterior spinal fusion, and to evaluate which covariates influenced the length of hospital stay. Over the study period there was a rise in median patient age from 52.3 to 58.6 years in the Spine Tango data pool and an increasing percentage of degenerative diseases as main pathology from 59.9 to 71.4%. Posterior decompression was the most frequent surgical measure. About one-third of all patients had documented follow-ups. The complication rate remained below 10%. The exemplar studies identified "centre of intervention" and "number of segments of fusion" as predictors of the occurrence of dura lesions in posterior spinal fusion surgery. Length of hospital stay among patients with posterior fusion was significantly influenced by "centre of intervention", "surgeon credentials", "number of segments of fusion", "age group" and "sex". Data analysis from Spine Tango is possible but complicated by the incompatibility of questionnaire generations 1 and 2 with the more recent generation 3. Although descriptive and also analytic studies at evidence level 2++ can be performed, findings cannot yet be generalised to any specific country or patient population. Current limitations of Spine Tango include the low number and short duration of follow-ups and the lack of sufficiently detailed patient data on subgroup levels. Although the number of participants is steadily growing, no country is yet represented with a sufficient number of hospitals. Nevertheless, the benefits of the project for the whole spine community become increasingly visible.

Effects of aspirin and propranolol on the acute psychological stress response in factor VIII coagulant activity: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled experimental study

Activity of clotting factor VIII has been shown to acutely increase with sympathetic nervous system stimulation. We investigated whether aspirin and propranolol affect the responsiveness of plasma clotting factor VIII activity levels to acute psychosocial stress. We randomized 54 healthy subjects double-blind to 5-day treatment with a single daily oral dosage of either 100 mg aspirin plus 80 mg propranolol combined, 100 mg of aspirin, 80 mg of propranolol, or placebo medication. Thereafter, subjects underwent a 13-min standardized psychosocial stressor. Plasma levels of clotting factor VIII activity were determined immediately before, immediately after, 45 min and 105 min after stress. Controlling for demographic, metabolic, and life style factors repeated measures analysis of covariance showed that the change in clotting factor VIII activity from prestress to 105 min poststress differed between medication groups (P = 0.023; partial eta = 0.132). The clotting factor VIII activity level decreased from prestress to immediately poststress in the aspirin/propranolol group relative to the placebo group (P = 0.048) and the aspirin group (P < 0.06). Between 45 min and 105 min poststress, clotting factor VIII levels increased in the aspirin/propranolol group relative to the placebo group (P = 0.007) and the aspirin group (P = 0.039). The stress response in clotting factor VIII activity levels was not significantly different between the aspirin/propranolol group and the propranolol group. Propranolol in combination with aspirin diminished the acute response in clotting factor VIII activity to psychosocial stress compared with placebo medication and aspirin alone. The effect of single aspirin on the acute clotting factor VIII stress response was indistinguishable from a placebo effect.