Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria's ecosystem services

East Africa’s Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake’s shores and abroad. In particular, the lake’s fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria’s system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake’s social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks’ vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society’s vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales.

Impact of different magnification levels on visual caries detection with ICDAS

OBJECTIVES The aim of this in vitro study was to examine the effect of different levels of magnification on the accuracy and reliability of visual caries detection using ICDAS criteria. METHODS Occlusal surfaces of 100 extracted molars were assessed by 14 examiners (3rd and the 4th year dental students and dentists) using no magnification aids, a 2.5× Galilean loupe, a 4.5× Keplerian loupe, or a surgical microscope with 10× magnification. The assessments were repeated on a different day. Sensitivity, specificity, AUC and reliabilities were calculated according to the gold standard of histology. RESULTS We found that with increasing magnification, the number of surfaces rated as "sound" (ICDAS code 0) decreased, while the number of surfaces with a localized enamel breakdown (ICDAS code 3) increased. While the sensitivities increased, the values of the specificities decreased to an unacceptably low level irrespective of the clinical experience of the examiners. CONCLUSIONS ICDAS seems to be optimized for natural vision up to 2.0× magnification and not for high magnifications. The use of powerful magnification in visual caries detection involves the risk of unnecessary and premature invasive treatment. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE This paper discusses when it does and does not make sense to use magnification devices for visual caries detection using ICDAS criteria. Strong magnifications should be refrained from for this purpose.

Influence of contact points on the performance of caries detection methods in approximal surfaces of primary molars: an in vivo study

This in vivo study aimed to evaluate the influence of contact points on the approximal caries detection in primary molars, by comparing the performance of the DIAGNOdent pen and visual-tactile examination after tooth separation to bitewing radiography (BW). A total of 112 children were examined and 33 children were selected. In three periods (a, b, and c), 209 approximal surfaces were examined: (a) examiner 1 performed visual-tactile examination using the Nyvad criteria (EX1); examiner 2 used DIAGNOdent pen (LF1) and took BW; (b) 1 week later, after tooth separation, examiner 1 performed the second visual-tactile examination (EX2) and examiner 2 used DIAGNOdent again (LF2); (c) after tooth exfoliation, surfaces were directly examined using DIAGNOdent (LF3). Teeth were examined by computed microtomography as a reference standard. Analyses were based on diagnostic thresholds: D1: D 0 = health, D 1 –D 4 = disease; D2: D 0 , D 1 = health, D 2 –D 4 = disease; D3: D 0 –D 2 = health, D 3 , D 4 = disease. At D1, the highest sensitivity/specificity were observed for EX1 (1.00)/LF3 (0.68), respectively. At D2, the highest sensitivity/ specificity were observed for LF3 (0.69)/BW (1.00), respectively. At D3, the highest sensitivity/specificity were observed for LF3 (0.78)/EX1, EX2 and BW (1.00). EX1 showed higher accuracy values than LF1, and EX2 showed similar values to LF2. We concluded that the visual-tactile examination showed better results in detecting sound surfaces and approximal caries lesions without tooth separation. However, the effectiveness of approximal caries lesion detection of both methods was increased by the absence of contact points. Therefore, regardless of the method of detection, orthodontic separating elastics should be used as a complementary tool for the diagnosis of approximal noncavitated lesions in primary molars.

Performance of undergraduate dental students on ICDAS clinical caries detection after different learning strategies

AIM This study aimed to evaluate the effect of a digital learning tool on undergraduate dental students' performance in detecting dental caries using ICDAS. METHODS An experimental digital learning tool (DLT) was created using digital photographs of sound and carious teeth. Thirty-nine students were divided into three groups (n = 13) and each assessed 12 randomly allocated patients before and after learning strategies: G1, ICDAS e-learning program; G2, ICDAS e-learning program plus DLT; G3, no learning strategy. Students (n = 32) reassessed patients 2 weeks after training. RESULTS Comparing before and after the learning strategies, any difference in the values of specificity and area under the ROC curve for all groups was found. Sensitivity was statistically significantly higher for G1 and G2. Comparing the groups, G2 showed a significant increase in sensitivity at the D2 and D3 thresholds. Spearman's correlations with the gold standard before and after the learning strategy were 0.60 and 0.61 for G1, 0.57 and 0.63 for G2, and 0.54 and 0.54 for G3, respectively. The Wilcoxon test showed a statistically significant difference between the values obtained before and after learning strategies for G1 and G2. CONCLUSIONS Use of the DLT after the ICDAS e-learning program tended to increase the sensitivity of ICDAS used by undergraduate dental students. The DLT appeared to improve dental students' ability to use ICDAS.

Eliminating exposure to aqueous solvents is necessary for the early detection and ultrastructural elemental analysis of sites of calcium and phosphorus enrichment in mineralizing UMR106-01 osteoblastic cultures

The mechanism underlying the mineralization of bone is well studied and yet it remains controversial. Inherent difficulties of imaging mineralized tissues and the aqueous solubility of calcium and phosphate, the 2 ions which combine to form bone mineral crystals, limit current analyses of labile diffusible, amorphous, and crystalline intermediates by electron microscopy. To improve the retention of calcium and phosphorus, we developed a pseudo nonaqueous processing approach and used it to characterize biomineralization foci, extracellular sites of hydroxyapatite deposition in osteoblastic cell cultures. Since mineralization of UMR106-01 osteoblasts is temporally synchronized and begins 78 h after plating, we used these cultures to evaluate the effectiveness of our method when applied to cells just prior to the formation of the first mineral crystals. Our approach combines for the first time 3 well-established methods with a fourth one, i.e. dry ultrathin sectioning. Dry ultrathin sectioning with an oscillating diamond knife was used to produce electron spectroscopic images of mineralized biomineralization foci which were high-pressure frozen and freeze substituted. For comparison, cultures were also treated with conventional processing and wet sectioning. The results show that only the use of pseudo nonaqueous processing was able to detect extracellular sites of early calcium and phosphorus enrichment at 76 h, several hours prior to detection of mineral crystals within biomineralization foci.

Experiences in Monitoring and Assessment of Sustainable Land Management

Although sustainable land management (SLM) is widely promoted to prevent and mitigate land degradation and desertification, its monitoring and assessment (M&A) has received much less attention. This paper compiles methodological approaches which to date have been little reported in the literature. It draws lessons from these experiences and identifies common elements and future pathways as a basis for a global approach. The paper starts with local level methods where the World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT) framework catalogues SLM case studies. This tool has been included in the local level assessment of Land Degradation Assessment in Drylands (LADA) and in the EU-DESIRE project. Complementary site-based approaches can enhance an ecological process-based understanding of SLM variation. At national and sub-national levels, a joint WOCAT/LADA/DESIRE spatial assessment based on land use systems identifies the status and trends of degradation and SLM, including causes, drivers and impacts on ecosystem services. Expert consultation is combined with scientific evidence and enhanced where necessary with secondary data and indicator databases. At the global level, the Global Environment Facility (GEF) knowledge from the land (KM:Land) initiative uses indicators to demonstrate impacts of SLM investments. Key lessons learnt include the need for a multi-scale approach, making use of common indicators and a variety of information sources, including scientific data and local knowledge through participatory methods. Methodological consistencies allow cross-scale analyses, and findings are analysed and documented for use by decision-makers at various levels. Effective M&A of SLM [e.g. for United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)] requires a comprehensive methodological framework agreed by the major players.

A Minimally Invasive Technique for the Detection and Analysis of Pulmonary Fat Embolism: A Feasibility Study*

We investigated the feasibility of postmortem percutaneous needle biopsy (PNB) for obtaining pulmonary samples adequate for the study of pulmonary fat embolism (PFE). Samples of both lungs were obtained from 26 cadavers via two different methods: (i) PNB and (ii) the double-edged knife technique, the gold standard at our institute. After water storage and Sudan III staining, six forensic pathologists independently examined all samples for the presence and severity of PFE. The results were compared and analyzed in each case regarding the vitality of the PFE and its relationship to the cause of death. The results showed that PFE was almost identically diagnosed and graded on the samples obtained via both methods. The discrepancies between the two techniques did not affect the diagnoses of vitality or cause of death related to PFE. This study demonstrates the feasibility of the PNB sampling method for the diagnosis and interpretation of PFE in the postmortem setting.

Deforestation and forest degradation monitoring and assessment of biomass and carbon stock of lowland rainforest in the Analanjirofo region, Madagascar

Madagascar is currently developing a policy and strategies to enhance the sustainable management of its natural resources, encouraged by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and REDD. To set up a sustainable financing scheme methodologies have to be provided that estimate, prevent and mitigate leakage, develop national and regional baselines, and estimate carbon benefits. With this research study this challenge was tried to be addressed by analysing a lowland rainforest in the Analanjirofo region in the district of Soanierana Ivongo, North East of Madagascar. For two distinguished forest degradation stages: “low degraded forest” and “degraded forest” aboveground biomass and carbon stock was assessed. The corresponding rates of carbon within those two classes were calculated and linked to a multi-temporal set of SPOT satellite data acquired in 1991, 2004 and 2009. Deforestation and particularly degradation and the related carbon stock developments were analysed. With the assessed data for the 3 years 1991, 2004 and 2009 it was possible to model a baseline and to develop a forest prediction for 2020 for Analanjirofo region in the district of Soanierana Ivongo. These results, developed applying robust methods, may provide important spatial information regarding the priorities in planning and implementation of future REDD+ activities in the area.

Endocrine changes and liver mRNA abundance of somatotropic axis and insulin system constituents during negative energy balance at different stages of lactation in dairy cows

The liver has an important role in metabolic regulation and control of the somatotropic axis to adapt successfully to physiological and environmental changes in dairy cows. The aim of this study was to investigate the adaptation to negative energy balance (NEB) at parturition and to a deliberately induced NEB by feed restriction at 100 days in milk. The hepatic gene expression and the endocrine system of the somatotropic axis and related parameters were compared between the early and late NEB period. Fifty multiparous cows were subjected to 3 periods (1=early lactation up to 12 wk postpartum, 2=feed restriction for 3 wk beginning at around 100 days in milk with a feed-restricted and a control group, and 3=subsequent realimentation period for the feed-restricted group for 8 wk). In period 1, plasma growth hormone reached a maximum in early lactation, whereas insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I), leptin, the thyroid hormones, insulin, and the revised quantitative insulin sensitivity check index increased gradually after a nadir in early lactation. Three days after parturition, hepatic mRNA abundance of growth hormone receptor 1A, IGF-I, IGF-I receptor and IGF-binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) were decreased, whereas mRNA of IGFBP-1 and -2 and insulin receptor were upregulated as compared with wk 3 antepartum. During period 2, feed-restricted cows showed decreased plasma concentrations of IGF-I and leptin compared with those of control cows. The revised quantitative insulin sensitivity check index was lower for feed-restricted cows (period 2) than for control cows. Compared with the NEB in period 1, the changes due to the deliberately induced NEB (period 2) in hormones were less pronounced. At the end of the 3-wk feed restriction, the mRNA abundance of IGF-I, IGFBP-1, -2, -3, and insulin receptor was increased as compared with the control group. The different effects of energy deficiency at the 2 stages in lactation show that the endocrine regulation changes qualitatively and quantitatively during the course of lactation.