Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients up to 5 years after initiation of HAART: collaborative analysis of prospective studies

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prognosis over 5 years of HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive patients starting HAART, taking into account the immunological and virological response to therapy. DESIGN: A collaborative analysis of data from 12 cohorts in Europe and North America on 20,379 adults who started HAART between 1995 and 2003. METHODS: Parametric survival models were used to predict the cumulative incidence at 5 years of a new AIDS-defining event or death, and death alone, first from the start of HAART and second from 6 months after the start of HAART. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. RESULTS: During 61 798 person-years of follow-up, 1005 patients died and an additional 1303 developed AIDS. A total of 10 046 (49%) patients started HAART either with a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells/microl or with a diagnosis of AIDS. The 5-year risk of AIDS or death (death alone) from the start of HAART ranged from 5.6 to 77% (1.8-65%), depending on age, CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level, clinical stage, and history of injection drug use. From 6 months the corresponding figures were 4.1-99% for AIDS or death and 1.3-96% for death alone. CONCLUSION: On the basis of data collected routinely in HIV care, prognostic models with high discriminatory power over 5 years were developed for patients starting HAART in industrialized countries. A risk calculator that produces estimates for progression rates at years 1 to 5 after starting HAART is available from www.art-cohort-collaboration.org.

Multidimensional preventive home visit programs for community-dwelling older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND: Multidimensional preventive home visit programs aim at maintaining health and autonomy of older adults and preventing disability and subsequent nursing home admission, but results of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have been inconsistent. Our objective was to systematically review RCTs examining the effect of home visit programs on mortality, nursing home admissions, and functional status decline. METHODS: Data sources were MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane CENTRAL database, and references. Studies were reviewed to identify RCTs that compared outcome data of older participants in preventive home visit programs with control group outcome data. Publications reporting 21 trials were included. Data on study population, intervention characteristics, outcomes, and trial quality were double-extracted. We conducted random effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: Pooled effects estimates revealed statistically nonsignificant favorable, and heterogeneous effects on mortality (odds ratio [OR] 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80-1.05), functional status decline (OR 0.89, 95% CI, 0.77-1.03), and nursing home admission (OR 0.86, 95% CI, 0.68-1.10). A beneficial effect on mortality was seen in younger study populations (OR 0.74, 95% CI, 0.58-0.94) but not in older populations (OR 1.14, 95% CI, 0.90-1.43). Functional decline was reduced in programs including a clinical examination in the initial assessment (OR 0.64, 95% CI, 0.48-0.87) but not in other trials (OR 1.00, 95% CI, 0.88-1.14). There was no single factor explaining the heterogenous effects of trials on nursing home admissions. CONCLUSION: Multidimensional preventive home visits have the potential to reduce disability burden among older adults when based on multidimensional assessment with clinical examination. Effects on nursing home admissions are heterogeneous and likely depend on multiple factors including population factors, program characteristics, and health care setting.

Promotion of health in older people: a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal in British general practice

BACKGROUND: there is inadequate evidence to support currently formulated NHS strategies to achieve health promotion and preventative care in older people through broad-based screening and assessment in primary care. The most extensively evaluated delivery instrument for this purpose is Health Risk Appraisal (HRA). This article describes a trial using HRA to evaluate the effect on health behaviour and preventative-care uptake in older people in NHS primary care. METHODS: a randomised controlled trial was undertaken in three London primary care group practices. Functionally independent community-dwelling patients older than 65 years (n = 2,503) received a self-administered Health Risk Appraisal for Older Persons (HRA-O) questionnaire leading to computer-generated individualised written feedback to participants and general practitioners (GPs), integrated into practice information-technology (IT) systems. All primary care staff received training in preventative health in older people. The main outcome measures were self-reported health behaviour and preventative care uptake at 1-year follow-up. RESULTS: of 2,503 individuals randomised, 2,006 respondents (80.1%) (intervention, n = 940, control n = 1,066) were available for analysis. Intervention group respondents reported slightly higher pneumococcal vaccination uptake and equivocal improvement in physical activity levels compared with controls. No significant differences were observed for any other categories of health behaviour or preventative care measures at 1-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: HRA-O implemented in this way resulted in minimal improvement of health behaviour or uptake of preventative care measures in older people. Supplementary reinforcement involving contact by health professionals with patients over and above routine clinical encounters may be a prerequisite to the effectiveness of IT-based delivery systems for health promotion in older people.

Hospital use of young children in Switzerland: a nation-wide study based on a complete survey over 4 years

Background Young children are known to be the most frequent hospital users compared to older children and young adults. Therefore, they are an important population from economic and policy perspectives of health care delivery. In Switzerland complete hospitalization discharge records for children [<5 years] of four consecutive years [2002–2005] were evaluated in order to analyze variation in patterns of hospital use. Methods Stationary and outpatient hospitalization rates on aggregated ZIP code level were calculated based on census data provided by the Swiss federal statistical office (BfS). Thirty-seven hospital service areas for children [HSAP] were created with the method of "small area analysis", reflecting user-based health markets. Descriptive statistics and general linear models were applied to analyze the data. Results The mean stationary hospitalization rate over four years was 66.1 discharges per 1000 children. Hospitalizations for respiratory problem are most dominant in young children (25.9%) and highest hospitalization rates are associated with geographical factors of urban areas and specific language regions. Statistical models yielded significant effect estimates for these factors and a significant association between ambulatory/outpatient and stationary hospitalization rates. Conclusion The utilization-based approach, using HSAP as spatial representation of user-based health markets, is a valid instrument and allows assessing the supply and demand of children's health care services. The study provides for the first time estimates for several factors associated with the large variation in the utilization and provision of paediatric health care resources in Switzerland.

Interpretation of primary care physicians' attitude regarding rotavirus immunisation using diffusion of innovation theories

To evaluate primary care physicians' attitude towards implementation of rotavirus (RV) immunisation into the Swiss immunisation schedule, an eight-question internet-based questionnaire was sent to the 3799 subscribers of InfoVac, a nationwide web-based expert network on immunisation issues, which reaches >95% of paediatricians and smaller proportions of other primary care physicians. Five demographic variables were also inquired. Descriptive statistics and multivariate analyses for the main outcome "acceptance of routine RV immunisation" and other variables were performed. Diffusion of innovation theory was used for data assessment. Nine-hundred seventy-seven questionnaires were returned (26%). Fifty percent of participants were paediatricians. Routine RV immunisation was supported by 146 participants (15%; so called early adopters), dismissed by 620 (64%), leaving 211 (21%) undecided. However, when asked whether they would recommend RV vaccination to parents if it were officially recommended by the federal authorities and reimbursed, 467 (48.5%; so called early majority) agreed to recommend RV immunisation. Multivariate analysis revealed that physicians who would immunise their own child (OR: 5.1; 95% CI: 4.1-6.3), hospital-based physicians (OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.1-2.3) and physicians from the French (OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.2-2.3) and Italian speaking areas of Switzerland (OR: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.1-5.8) were more likely to support RV immunisation. Diffusion of innovation theory predicts a >80% implementation if approximately 50% of a given population support an innovation. Introduction of RV immunisation in Switzerland is likely to be successful, if (i) the federal authorities issue an official recommendation and (ii) costs are covered by basic health care insurance.

Mental health-care utilization in survivors of childhood cancer and siblings: the Swiss childhood cancer survivor study

PURPOSE We aimed to (1) describe the utilization of mental health-care in survivors and siblings, the association with severity of distress, and visits to other professionals in distressed survivors not utilizing mental health-care; and (2) identify factors associated with utilization of mental health-care in distressed survivors. METHODS Within the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, we sent postal questionnaires to all participants aged <16 years at diagnosis (1976-2003), who survived ≥5 years after diagnosis and were aged ≥16 years at study. Survivors and siblings could indicate if they utilized mental health-care in the past year. Psychological distress was assessed with the Brief Symptom Inventory-18 (BSI-18). Participants with scores T ≥ 57 on two of three scales or the Global Severity Index were considered distressed. RESULTS We included 1,602 survivors and 703 siblings. Overall, 160 (10 %) and 53 (8 %), utilized mental health-care and 203 (14 %) and 127 (14 %) were considered distressed. Among these, 69 (34 %) survivors and 20 (24 %) siblings had utilized mental health-care. Participants with higher distress were more likely to utilize mental health-care. Distressed survivors not utilizing mental health-care were more likely to see a medical specialist than nondistressed. In the multivariable regression, factors associated with utilizing mental health-care were higher psychological distress and reporting late effects. CONCLUSIONS Our results underline the importance of developing interventional programs and implementing psychological screening in follow-up of survivors. It is also important to systematically address siblings' needs. In follow-up, patients at risk should be informed about existing possibilities or advised to visit mental health professionals.

Safety and efficacy of drug-eluting stents in women: a patient-level pooled analysis of randomised trials

BACKGROUND The safety and efficacy of drug-eluting stents (DES) in the treatment of coronary artery disease have been assessed in several randomised trials. However, none of these trials were powered to assess the safety and efficacy of DES in women because only a small proportion of recruited participants were women. We therefore investigated the safety and efficacy of DES in female patients during long-term follow-up. METHODS We pooled patient-level data for female participants from 26 randomised trials of DES and analysed outcomes according to stent type (bare-metal stents, early-generation DES, and newer-generation DES). The primary safety endpoint was a composite of death or myocardial infarction. The secondary safety endpoint was definite or probable stent thrombosis. The primary efficacy endpoint was target-lesion revascularisation. Analysis was by intention to treat. FINDINGS Of 43,904 patients recruited in 26 trials of DES, 11,557 (26·3%) were women (mean age 67·1 years [SD 10·6]). 1108 (9·6%) women received bare-metal stents, 4171 (36·1%) early-generation DES, and 6278 (54·3%) newer-generation DES. At 3 years, estimated cumulative incidence of the composite of death or myocardial infarction occurred in 132 (12·8%) women in the bare-metal stent group, 421 (10·9%) in the early-generation DES group, and 496 (9·2%) in the newer-generation DES group (p=0·001). Definite or probable stent thrombosis occurred in 13 (1·3%), 79 (2·1%), and 66 (1·1%) women in the bare-metal stent, early-generation DES, and newer-generation DES groups, respectively (p=0·01). The use of DES was associated with a significant reduction in the 3 year rates of target-lesion revascularisation (197 [18·6%] women in the bare-metal stent group, 294 [7·8%] in the early-generation DES group, and 330 [6·3%] in the newer-generation DES group, p<0·0001). Results did not change after adjustment for baseline characteristics in the multivariable analysis. INTERPRETATION The use of DES in women is more effective and safe than is use of bare-metal stents during long-term follow-up. Newer-generation DES are associated with an improved safety profile compared with early-generation DES, and should therefore be thought of as the standard of care for percutaneous coronary revascularisation in women. FUNDING Women in Innovation Initiative of the Society of Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions.

Circadian blood pressure during the early course of type 1 diabetes. Analysis of 1,011 ambulatory blood pressure recordings in 354 adolescents and young adults

OBJECTIVE Little information is available on the early course of hypertension in type 1 diabetes. The aim of our study, therefore, was to document circadian blood pressure profiles in patients with a diabetes duration of up to 20 years and relate daytime and nighttime blood pressure to duration of diabetes, BMI, insulin therapy, and HbA1c. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Ambulatory profiles of 24-h blood pressure were recorded in 354 pediatric patients with type 1 diabetes (age 14.6 +/- 4.2 years, duration of diabetes 5.6 +/- 5.0 years, follow-up for up to 9 years). A total of 1,011 profiles were available for analysis from patients not receiving antihypertensive medication. RESULTS Although daytime mean systolic pressure was significantly elevated in diabetic subjects (+3.1 mmHg; P < 0.0001), daytime diastolic pressure was not different from from the height- and sex-adjusted normal range (+0.1 mmHg, NS). In contrast, both systolic and diastolic nighttime values were clearly elevated (+7.2 and +4.2 mmHg; P < 0.0001), and nocturnal dipping was reduced (P < 0.0001). Systolic blood pressure was related to overweight in all patients, while diastolic blood pressure was related to metabolic control in young adults. Blood pressure variability was significantly lower in girls compared with boys (P < 0.01). During follow-up, no increase of blood pressure was noted; however, diastolic nocturnal dipping decreased significantly (P < 0.03). Mean daytime blood pressure was significantly related to office blood pressure (r = +0.54 for systolic and r = +0.40 for diastolic pressure); however, hypertension was confirmed by ambulatory blood pressure measurement in only 32% of patients with elevated office blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS During the early course of type 1 diabetes, daytime blood pressure is higher compared with that of healthy control subjects. The elevation of nocturnal values is even more pronounced and nocturnal dipping is reduced. The frequency of white-coat hypertension is high among adolescents with diabetes, and ambulatory blood pressure monitoring avoids unnecessary antihypertensive treatment.

The lower quality of preventive care among forced migrants in a country with universal healthcare coverage

OBJECTIVE To assess the association between socio-demographic factors and the quality of preventive care and chronic care of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in a country with universal health care coverage. METHODS Our retrospective cohort assessed a random sample of 966 patients aged 50-80years followed over 2years (2005-2006) in 4 Swiss university primary care settings (Basel/Geneva/Lausanne/Zürich). We used RAND's Quality Assessment Tools indicators and examined recommended preventive care among different socio-demographic subgroups. RESULTS Overall patients received 69.6% of recommended preventive care. Preventive care indicators were more likely to be met among men (72.8% vs. 65.4%; p<0.001), younger patients (from 71.0% at 50-59years to 66.7% at 70-80years, p for trend=0.03) and Swiss patients (71.1% vs. 62.7% in forced migrants; p=0.001). This latter difference remained in multivariate analysis adjusted for gender, age, civil status and occupation (OR 0.68; 95% CI 0.54-0.86). Forced migrants had lower scores for physical examination and breast and colon cancer screening (all p≤0.02). No major differences were seen for chronic care of CV risk factors. CONCLUSION Despite universal healthcare coverage, forced migrants receive less preventive care than Swiss patients in university primary care settings. Greater attention should be paid to forced migrants for preventive care.

When to start antiretroviral therapy in children aged 2-5 years: a collaborative causal modelling analysis of cohort studies from southern Africa

BACKGROUND There is limited evidence on the optimal timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in children 2-5 y of age. We conducted a causal modelling analysis using the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaborative dataset to determine the difference in mortality when starting ART in children aged 2-5 y immediately (irrespective of CD4 criteria), as recommended in the World Health Organization (WHO) 2013 guidelines, compared to deferring to lower CD4 thresholds, for example, the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4 percentage (CD4%) <25%. METHODS AND FINDINGS ART-naïve children enrolling in HIV care at IeDEA-SA sites who were between 24 and 59 mo of age at first visit and with ≥1 visit prior to ART initiation and ≥1 follow-up visit were included. We estimated mortality for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds for up to 3 y using g-computation, adjusting for measured time-dependent confounding of CD4 percent, CD4 count, and weight-for-age z-score. Confidence intervals were constructed using bootstrapping. The median (first; third quartile) age at first visit of 2,934 children (51% male) included in the analysis was 3.3 y (2.6; 4.1), with a median (first; third quartile) CD4 count of 592 cells/mm(3) (356; 895) and median (first; third quartile) CD4% of 16% (10%; 23%). The estimated cumulative mortality after 3 y for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds ranged from 3.4% (95% CI: 2.1-6.5) (no ART) to 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5%) (ART irrespective of CD4 value). Estimated mortality was overall higher when initiating ART at lower CD4 values or not at all. There was no mortality difference between starting ART immediately, irrespective of CD4 value, and ART initiation at the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4% <25%, with mortality estimates of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5%) and 2.2% (95% CI: 1.4%-3.5%) after 3 y, respectively. The analysis was limited by loss to follow-up and the unavailability of WHO staging data. CONCLUSIONS The results indicate no mortality difference for up to 3 y between ART initiation irrespective of CD4 value and ART initiation at a threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4% <25%, but there are overall higher point estimates for mortality when ART is initiated at lower CD4 values. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Mid-term results in relation to age and analysis of predictive factors after fixation of acetabular fractures using the modified Stoppa approach.

INTRODUCTION Data concerning outcome after management of acetabular fractures by anterior approaches with focus on age and fractures associated with roof impaction, central dislocation and/or quadrilateral plate displacement are rare. METHODS Between October 2005 and April 2009 a series of 59 patients (mean age 57 years, range 13-91) with fractures involving the anterior column was treated using the modified Stoppa approach alone or for reduction of displaced iliac wing or low anterior column fractures in combination with the 1st window of the ilioinguinal approach or the modified Smith-Petersen approach, respectively. Surgical data, accuracy of reduction, clinical and radiographic outcome at mid-term and the need for endoprosthetic replacement in the postoperative course (defined as failure) were assessed; uni- and multivariate regression analysis were performed to identify independent predictive factors (e.g. age, nonanatomical reduction, acetabular roof impaction, central dislocation, quadrilateral plate displacement) for a failure. Outcome was assessed for all patients in general and in accordance to age in particular; patients were subdivided into two groups according to their age (group "<60yrs", group "≥60yrs"). RESULTS Forty-three of 59 patients (mean age 54yrs, 13-89) were available for evaluation. Of these, anatomic reduction was achieved in 72% of cases. Nonanatomical reduction was identified as being the only multivariate predictor for subsequent total hip replacement (Adjusted Hazard Ratio 23.5; p<0.01). A statistically significant higher rate of nonanatomical reduction was observed in the presence of acetabular roof impaction (p=0.01). In 16% of all patients, total hip replacement was performed and in 69% of patients with preserved hips the clinical results were excellent or good at a mean follow up of 35±10 months (range: 24-55). No statistical significant differences were observed between both groups. CONCLUSION Nonanatomical reconstruction of the articular surfaces is at risk for failure of joint-preserving management of acetabular fractures through an isolated or combined modified Stoppa approach resulting in total joint replacement at mid-term. In the elderly, joint-preserving surgery is worth considering as promising clinical and radiographic results might be obtained at mid-term.

Cost-effectiveness of different strategies to monitor adults on antiretroviral treatment: a combined analysis of three mathematical models

Background: WHO's 2013 revisions to its Consolidated Guidelines on antiretroviral drugs recommend routine viral load monitoring, rather than clinical or immunological monitoring, as the preferred monitoring approach on the basis of clinical evidence. However, HIV programmes in resource-limited settings require guidance on the most cost-effective use of resources in view of other competing priorities such as expansion of antiretroviral therapy coverage. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of alternative patient monitoring strategies. Methods: We evaluated a range of monitoring strategies, including clinical, CD4 cell count, and viral load monitoring, alone and together, at different frequencies and with different criteria for switching to second-line therapies. We used three independently constructed and validated models simultaneously. We estimated costs on the basis of resource use projected in the models and associated unit costs; we quantified impact as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. We compared alternatives using incremental cost-effectiveness analysis. Findings: All models show that clinical monitoring delivers significant benefit compared with a hypothetical baseline scenario with no monitoring or switching. Regular CD4 cell count monitoring confers a benefit over clinical monitoring alone, at an incremental cost that makes it affordable in more settings than viral load monitoring, which is currently more expensive. Viral load monitoring without CD4 cell count every 6—12 months provides the greatest reductions in morbidity and mortality, but incurs a high cost per DALY averted, resulting in lost opportunities to generate health gains if implemented instead of increasing antiretroviral therapy coverage or expanding antiretroviral therapy eligibility. Interpretation: The priority for HIV programmes should be to expand antiretroviral therapy coverage, firstly at CD4 cell count lower than 350 cells per μL, and then at a CD4 cell count lower than 500 cells per μL, using lower-cost clinical or CD4 monitoring. At current costs, viral load monitoring should be considered only after high antiretroviral therapy coverage has been achieved. Point-of-care technologies and other factors reducing costs might make viral load monitoring more affordable in future. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO.

Health care index score and risk of death following tuberculosis diagnosis in HIV-positive patients

OBJECTIVES: To assess health care utilisation for patients co-infected with TB and HIV (TB-HIV), and to develop a weighted health care index (HCI) score based on commonly used interventions and compare it with patient outcome. METHODS: A total of 1061 HIV patients diagnosed with TB in four regions, Central/Northern, Southern and Eastern Europe and Argentina, between January 2004 and December 2006 were enrolled in the TB-HIV study. A weighted HCI score (range 0–5), based on independent prognostic factors identified in multivariable Cox models and the final score, included performance of TB drug susceptibility testing (DST), an initial TB regimen containing a rifamycin, isoniazid and pyrazinamide, and start of combination antiretroviral treatment (cART). RESULTS: The mean HCI score was highest in Central/Northern Europe (3.2, 95%CI 3.1–3.3) and lowest in Eastern Europe (1.6, 95%CI 1.5–1.7). The cumulative probability of death 1 year after TB diagnosis decreased from 39% (95%CI 31–48) among patients with an HCI score of 0, to 9% (95%CI 6–13) among those with a score of ≥4. In an adjusted Cox model, a 1-unit increase in the HCI score was associated with 27% reduced mortality (relative hazard 0.73, 95%CI 0.64–0.84). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that DST, standard anti-tuberculosis treatment and early cART may improve outcome for TB-HIV patients. The proposed HCI score provides a tool for future research and monitoring of the management of TB-HIV patients. The highest HCI score may serve as a benchmark to assess TB-HIV management, encouraging continuous health care improvement.