Robust estimates of climate-induced hydrological change in a temperate mountainous region

A sustainable water resources management depends on sound information about the impacts of climate change. This information is, however, not easily derived because natural runoff variability interferes with the climate change signal. This study presents a procedure that leads to robust estimates of magnitude and Time Of Emergence (TOE) of climate-induced hydrological change that also account for the natural variability contained in the time series. Firstly, natural variability of 189 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland is sampled for 10 ENSEMBLES scenarios for the control (1984–2005) and two scenario periods (near future: 2025–2046, far future: 2074–2095) applying a bootstrap procedure. Then, the sampling distributions of mean monthly runoff are tested for significant differences with the Wilcoxon-Mann–Whitney test and for effect size with Cliff’s delta d. Finally, the TOE of a climate change induced hydrological change is determined when at least eight out of the ten hydrological projections significantly differ from natural variability. The results show that the TOE occurs in the near future period except for high-elevated catchments in late summer. The significant hydrological projections in the near future correspond, however, to only minor runoff changes. In the far future, hydrological change is statistically significant and runoff changes are substantial. Temperature change is the most important factor determining hydrological change in this mountainous region. Therefore, hydrological change depends strongly on a catchment’s mean elevation. Considering that the hydrological changes are predicted to be robust in the near future highlights the importance of accounting for these changes in water resources planning.

Influence of microphysical schemes on atmospheric water in the Weather Research and Forecasting model

This study examines how different microphysical parameterization schemes influence orographically induced precipitation and the distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour for midlatitude summer conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A high-resolution two-dimensional idealized simulation is used to assess the differences between the schemes in which a moist air flow is interacting with a bell-shaped 2 km high mountain. Periodic lateral boundary conditions are chosen to recirculate atmospheric water in the domain. It is found that the 13 selected microphysical schemes conserve the water in the model domain. The gain or loss of water is less than 0.81% over a simulation time interval of 61 days. The differences of the microphysical schemes in terms of the distributions of water vapour, hydrometeors and accumulated precipitation are presented and discussed. The Kessler scheme, the only scheme without ice-phase processes, shows final values of cloud liquid water 14 times greater than the other schemes. The differences among the other schemes are not as extreme, but still they differ up to 79% in water vapour, up to 10 times in hydrometeors and up to 64% in accumulated precipitation at the end of the simulation. The microphysical schemes also differ in the surface evaporation rate. The WRF single-moment 3-class scheme has the highest surface evaporation rate compensated by the highest precipitation rate. The different distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour of the microphysical schemes induce differences up to 49 W m−2 in the downwelling shortwave radiation and up to 33 W m−2 in the downwelling longwave radiation.

Impact of normal and shear stresses due to wheel slip on hydrological properties of an agricultural clay loam: Experimental and new computerized approach

The main purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect that mechanical stresses acting under the slipping driving wheels of agricultural equipment have on the soil’s pore system and water flow process (surface runoff generation during extreme event). The field experiment simulated low slip (1%) and high slip (27%) on a clay loam. The stress on the soil surface and changes in the amounts of water flowing from macropores were simulated using the Tires/tracks And Soil Compaction (TASC) tool and the MACRO model, respectively. Taking a 65 kW tractor on a clay loam as a reference, results showed that an increase in slip of the rear wheels from 1% to 27% caused normal stress to increase from 90.6 kPa to 104.4 kPa at the topsoil level, and the maximum shear contact stress to rise drastically from 6.0 kPa to 61.6 kPa. At 27% slip, topsoil was sheared and displaced over a distance of 0.35 m. Excessive normal and shear stress values with high slip caused severe reductions of the soil’s macroporosity, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and water quantities flowing from topsoil macropores. Assuming that, under conditions of intense rainfall on sloping land, a loss in vertical water flow would mean an increase in surface runoff, we calculated that a rainfall intensity of 100 mm h-1 and a rainfall duration of 1 h would increase the runoff coefficient to 0.79 at low slip and to 1.00 at high slip, indicating that 100% of rainwater would be transformed into surface runoff at high slip. We expect that these effects have a significant impact on soil erosion and floods in steeper terrain (slope > 15°) and across larger surface areas (> 16 m2) than those included in our study.

Long-term hydrological dynamics and fire history over the last 2000 years in CE Europe reconstructed from a high-resolution peat archive

Sphagnum peatlands in the oceanic-continental transition zone of Poland are currently influenced by climatic and anthropogenic factors that lead to peat desiccation and susceptibility to fire. Little is known about the response of Sphagnum peatland testate amoebae (TA) to the combined effects of drought and fire. To understand the relationships between hydrology and fire dynamics, we used high-resolution multi-proxy palaeoecological data to reconstruct 2000 years of mire history in northern Poland. We employed a new approach for Polish peatlands – joint TA-based water table depth and charcoal-inferred fire activity reconstructions. In addition, the response of most abundant TA hydrological indicators to charcoal-inferred fire activity was assessed. The results show four hydrological stages of peatland development: moderately wet (from ∼35 BC to 800 AD), wet (from ∼800 to 1390 AD), dry (from ∼1390 to 1700 AD) and with an instable water table (from ∼1700 to 2012 AD). Fire activity has increased in the last millennium after constant human presence in the mire surroundings. Higher fire activity caused a rise in the water table, but later an abrupt drought appeared at the onset of the Little Ice Age. This dry phase is characterized by high ash contents and high charcoal-inferred fire activity. Fires preceded hydrological change and the response of TA to fire was indirect. Peatland drying and hydrological instability was connected with TA community changes from wet (dominance of Archerella flavum, Hyalosphenia papilio, Amphitrema wrightianum) to dry (dominance of Cryptodifflugia oviformis, Euglypha rotunda); however, no clear fire indicator species was found. Anthropogenic activities can increase peat fires and cause substantial hydrology changes. Our data suggest that increased human fire activity was one of the main factors that influenced peatland hydrology, though the mire response through hydrological changes towards drier conditions was delayed in relation to the surrounding vegetation changes.

Meteorological and Hydrological Data collected at Gununo SCRP Research Station from 1996 to 2004

Nine years of meteorological and hydrological data collected at Gununo SCRP Research Station are ecoded and available

Reconciling Precipitation with Runoff: Observed Hydrological Change in the Midlatitudes

Century-long observed gridded land precipitation datasets are a cornerstone of hydrometeorological research. But recent work has suggested that observed Northern Hemisphere midlatitude (NHML) land mean precipitation does not show evidence of an expected negative response to mid-twentieth-century aerosol forcing. Utilizing observed river discharges, the observed runoff is calculated and compared with observed land precipitation. The results show a near-zero twentieth-century trendinobserved NHML landmean runoff,in contrast to the significant positive trend in observed NHML land mean precipitation. However, precipitation and runoff share common interannual and decadal variability. An obvious split, or breakpoint, is found in the NHML land mean runoff–precipitation relationship in the 1930s. Using runoff simulated by six land surface models (LSMs), which are driven by the observed precipitation dataset, such breakpoints are absent. These findings support previous hypotheses that inhomogeneities exist in the early-twentieth-century NHML land mean precipitation record. Adjusting the observed precipitation record according to the observed runoff record largely accounts for the departure of the observed precipitation response from that predicted given the real-world aerosol forcing estimate, more than halving the discrepancy from about 6 to around 2 W m 22. Consideration of complementary observed runoff adds support to the suggestion that NHML-wide early-twentieth-century precipitation observations are unsuitable for climate change studies. The agreement between precipitation and runoff over Europe, however, is excellent, supporting the use of whole-twentieth-century observed precipitation datasets here.

Forecasting Intraday Stock Price Trends with Text Mining Techniques

In this paper, we describe NewsCATS (news categorization and trading system), a system implemented to predict stock price trends for the time immediately after the publication of press releases. NewsCATS consists mainly of three components. The first component retrieves relevant information from press releases through the application of text preprocessing techniques. The second component sorts the press releases into predefined categories. Finally, appropriate trading strategies are derived by the third component by means of the earlier categorization. The findings indicate that a categorization of press releases is able to provide additional information that can be used to forecast stock price trends, but that an adequate trading strategy is essential for the results of the categorization to be fully exploited.

Geological and hydrological histories of the Argyre province, Mars

The geologic history of the multi-ringed Argyre impact basin and surroundings has been reconstructed on the basis of geologic mapping and relative-age dating of rock materials and structures. The impact formed a primary basin, rim materials, and a complex basement structural fabric including faults and valleys that are radial and concentric about the primary basin, as well as structurally-controlled local basins. Since its formation, the basin has been a regional catchment for volatiles and sedimentary materials as well as a dominant influence on the flow of surface ice, debris flows, and groundwater through and over its basement structures. The basin is interpreted to have been occupied by lakes, including a possible Mediterranean-sized sea that formed in the aftermath of the Argyre impact event The hypothesized lakes froze and diminished through time, though liquid water may have remained beneath the ice cover and sedimentation may have continued for some time. At its deepest, the main Argyre lake may have taken more than a hundred thousand years to freeze to the bottom even absent any heat source besides the Sun, but with impact-induced hydrothermal heat, geothermal heat flow due to long-lived radioactivities in early martian history, and concentration of solutes in sub-ice brine, liquid water may have persisted beneath thick ice for many millions of years. Existence of an ice-covered sea perhaps was long enough for life to originate and evolve with gradually colder and more hypersaline conditions. The Argyre rock materials, diverse in origin and emplacement mechanisms, have been modified by impact, magmatic, eolian, fluvial, lacustrine, glacial, periglacial, alluvial, colluvial, and tectonic processes. Post-impact adjustment of part of the impact-generated basement structural fabric such as concentric faults is apparent. Distinct basin-stratigraphic units are interpreted to be linked to large-scale geologic activity far from the basin, including growth of the Tharsis magmatic-tectonic complex and the growth into southern middle latitudes of south polar ice sheets. Along with the migration of surface and sub-surface volatiles towards the central part of the primaiy basin, the substantial difference in elevation with respect to the surrounding highlands and Tharsis and the Thaumasia highlands result in the trapping of atmospheric volatiles within the basin in the form of fog and regional or local precipitation, even today. In addition, the impact event caused long-term (millions of years) hydrothermal activity, as well as deep-seated basement structures that have tapped the internal heat of Mars, as conduits, for far greater time, possibly even today. This possibility is raised by the observation of putative open-system pingos and nearby gullies that occur in linear depressions with accompanying systems of faults and fractures. Long-term water and heat energy enrichment, complemented by the interaction of the nutrient-enriched primordial crustal and mantle materials favorable to life excavated to the surface and near-surface environs through the Argyre impact event, has not only resulted in distinct geomorphology, but also makes the Argyre basin a potential site of exceptional astrobiological significance. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

M-AARE - Coupling atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models in the Aare river basin, Switzerland

The triggering mechanism and the temporal evolution of large flood events, especially of worst-case scenarios, are not yet fully understood. Consequently, the cumulative losses of extreme floods are unknown. To study the link between weather conditions, discharges and flood losses it is necessary to couple atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models. The objective of the M-AARE project is to test the potentials and opportunities of a model chain that relates atmospheric conditions to flood losses or risks. The M-AARE model chain is a set of coupled models consisting of four main components: the precipitation module, the hydrology module, the hydrodynamic module, and the damage module. The models are coupled in a cascading framework with harmonized time-steps. First exploratory applications show that the one way coupling of the WRF-PREVAH-BASEMENT models has been achieved and provides promising new insights for a better understanding of key aspects in flood risk analysis.