Multivessel versus culprit vessel percutaneous coronary intervention in ST-elevation myocardial infarction: is more worse?

Aims: We examined what type of STEMI patients are more likely to undergo multivessel PCI (MPCI) in a "real-world" setting and whether MPCI leads to worse or better outcomes compared with single-vessel PCI (SPCI) after stratifying patients by risk. Methods and results: Among STEMI patients enrolled in the Swiss AMIS Plus registry between 2005 and 2012 (n=12,000), 4,941 were identified with multivessel disease. We then stratified patients based on MPCI use and their risk. High-risk patients were identified a priori as those with: 1) left main (LM) involvement (lesions, n=263); 2) out-of-hospital cardiac arrest; or 3) Killip class III/IV. Logistic regression models examined for predictors of MPCI use and the association between MPCI and in-hospital mortality. Three thousand eight hundred and thirty-three (77.6%) patients underwent SPCI and 1,108 (22.4%) underwent MPCI. Rates of MPCI were greater among high-risk patients for each of the three categories: 8.6% vs. 5.9% for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (p<0.01); 12.3% vs. 6.2% for Killip III/IV (p<0.001); and 14.5% vs. 2.7% for LM involvement (p<0.001). Overall, in-hospital mortality after MPCI was higher when compared with SPCI (7.3% vs. 4.4%; p<0.001). However, this result was not present when patients were stratified by risk: in-hospital mortality for MPCI vs. SPCI was 2.0% vs. 2.0% (p=1.00) in low-risk patients and 22.2% vs. 21.7% (p=1.00) in high-risk patients. Conclusions: High-risk patients are more likely to undergo MPCI. Furthermore, MPCI does not appear to be associated with higher mortality after stratifying patients based on their risk.

Validity of Charlson Comorbidity Index in patients hospitalised with acute coronary syndrome. Insights from the nationwide AMIS Plus registry 2002-2012

OBJECTIVE This study aimed to assess the impact of individual comorbid conditions as well as the weight assignment, predictive properties and discriminating power of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) on outcome in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS A prospective multicentre observational study (AMIS Plus Registry) from 69 Swiss hospitals with 29 620 ACS patients enrolled from 2002 to 2012. The main outcome measures were in-hospital and 1-year follow-up mortality. RESULTS Of the patients, 27% were female (age 72.1±12.6 years) and 73% were male (64.2±12.9 years). 46.8% had comorbidities and they were less likely to receive guideline-recommended drug therapy and reperfusion. Heart failure (adjusted OR 1.88; 95% CI 1.57 to 2.25), metastatic tumours (OR 2.25; 95% CI 1.60 to 3.19), renal diseases (OR 1.84; 95% CI 1.60 to 2.11) and diabetes (OR 1.35; 95% CI 1.19 to 1.54) were strong predictors of in-hospital mortality. In this population, CCI weighted the history of prior myocardial infarction higher (1 instead of -0.4, 95% CI -1.2 to 0.3 points) but heart failure (1 instead of 3.7, 95% CI 2.6 to 4.7) and renal disease (2 instead of 3.5, 95% CI 2.7 to 4.4) lower than the benchmark, where all comorbidities, age and gender were used as predictors. However, the model with CCI and age has an identical discrimination to this benchmark (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were both 0.76). CONCLUSIONS Comorbidities greatly influenced clinical presentation, therapies received and the outcome of patients admitted with ACS. Heart failure, diabetes, renal disease or metastatic tumours had a major impact on mortality. CCI seems to be an appropriate prognostic indicator for in-hospital and 1-year outcomes in ACS patients. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER NCT01305785.

Percutaneous left-ventricular support with the Impella-2.5-assist device in acute cardiogenic shock: results of the Impella-EUROSHOCK-registry

BACKGROUND Acute cardiogenic shock after myocardial infarction is associated with high in-hospital mortality attributable to persisting low-cardiac output. The Impella-EUROSHOCK-registry evaluates the safety and efficacy of the Impella-2.5-percutaneous left-ventricular assist device in patients with cardiogenic shock after acute myocardial infarction. METHODS AND RESULTS This multicenter registry retrospectively included 120 patients (63.6±12.2 years; 81.7% male) with cardiogenic shock from acute myocardial infarction receiving temporary circulatory support with the Impella-2.5-percutaneous left-ventricular assist device. The primary end point evaluated mortality at 30 days. The secondary end point analyzed the change of plasma lactate after the institution of hemodynamic support, and the rate of early major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events as well as long-term survival. Thirty-day mortality was 64.2% in the study population. After Impella-2.5-percutaneous left-ventricular assist device implantation, lactate levels decreased from 5.8±5.0 mmol/L to 4.7±5.4 mmol/L (P=0.28) and 2.5±2.6 mmol/L (P=0.023) at 24 and 48 hours, respectively. Early major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events were reported in 18 (15%) patients. Major bleeding at the vascular access site, hemolysis, and pericardial tamponade occurred in 34 (28.6%), 9 (7.5%), and 2 (1.7%) patients, respectively. The parameters of age >65 and lactate level >3.8 mmol/L at admission were identified as predictors of 30-day mortality. After 317±526 days of follow-up, survival was 28.3%. CONCLUSIONS In patients with acute cardiogenic shock from acute myocardial infarction, Impella 2.5-treatment is feasible and results in a reduction of lactate levels, suggesting improved organ perfusion. However, 30-day mortality remains high in these patients. This likely reflects the last-resort character of Impella-2.5-application in selected patients with a poor hemodynamic profile and a greater imminent risk of death. Carefully conducted randomized controlled trials are necessary to evaluate the efficacy of Impella-2.5-support in this high-risk patient group.

Catheter removal versus retention in the management of catheter-associated enterococcal bloodstream infections

BACKGROUND Enterococci are an important cause of central venous catheter (CVC)-associated bloodstream infections (CA-BSI). It is unclear whether CVC removal is necessary to successfully manage enterococcal CA-BSI. METHODS A 12-month retrospective cohort study of adults with enterococcal CA-BSI was conducted at a tertiary care hospital; clinical, microbiological and outcome data were collected. RESULTS A total of 111 patients had an enterococcal CA-BSI. The median age was 58.2 years (range 21 to 94 years). There were 45 (40.5%) infections caused by Entercoccus faecalis (among which 10 [22%] were vancomycin resistant), 61 (55%) by Enterococcus faecium (57 [93%] vancomycin resistant) and five (4.5%) by other Enterococcus species. Patients were treated with linezolid (n=51 [46%]), vancomycin (n=37 [33%]), daptomycin (n=11 [10%]), ampicillin (n=2 [2%]) or quinupristin/dalfopristin (n=2 [2%]); seven (n=6%) patients did not receive adequate enterococcal treatment. Additionally, 24 (22%) patients received adjunctive gentamicin treatment. The CVC was retained in 29 (26.1%) patients. Patients with removed CVCs showed lower rates of in-hospital mortality (15 [18.3%] versus 11 [37.9]; P=0.03), but similar rates of recurrent bacteremia (nine [11.0%] versus two (7.0%); P=0.7) and a similar post-BSI length of hospital stay (median days [range]) (11.1 [1.7 to 63.1 days] versus 9.3 [1.9 to 31.8 days]; P=0.3). Catheter retention was an independent predictor of mortality (OR 3.34 [95% CI 1.21 to 9.26]). CONCLUSIONS To the authors' knowledge, the present article describes the largest enterococcal CA-BSI series to date. Mortality was increased among patients who had their catheter retained. Additional prospective studies are necessary to determine the optimal management of enterococcal CA-BSI.

Total surgical aortic arch replacement as a safe strategy to treat complex multisegmental proximal thoracic aortic pathology.

OBJECTIVE To analyse the results after elective open total aortic arch replacement. METHODS We analysed 39 patients (median age 63 years, median logistic EuroSCORE 18.4) who underwent elective open total arch replacement between 2005 and 2012. RESULTS In-hospital mortality was 5.1% (n = 2) and perioperative neurological injury was 12.8% (n = 5). The indication for surgery was degenerative aneurysmal disease in 59% (n = 23) and late aneurysmal formation following previous surgery of type A aortic dissection in 35.9% (n = 14); 5.1% (n = 2) were due to anastomotical aneurysms after prior ascending repair. Fifty-nine percent (n = 23) of the patients had already undergone previous proximal thoracic aortic surgery. In 30.8% (n = 12) of them, a conventional elephant trunk was added to total arch replacement, in 28.2% (n = 11), root replacement was additionally performed. Median hypothermic circulatory arrest time was 42 min (21-54 min). Selective antegrade cerebral perfusion was used in 95% (n = 37) of patients. Median follow-up was 11 months [interquartile range (IQR) 1-20 months]. There was no late death and no need for reoperation during this period. CONCLUSIONS Open total aortic arch replacement shows very satisfying results. The number of patients undergoing total arch replacement as a redo procedure and as a part of a complex multisegmental aortic pathology is high. Future strategies will have to emphasize neurological protection in extensive simultaneous replacement of the aortic arch and adjacent segments.

Drug-eluting stents compared to bare-metal stents improve short-term survival in patients with acute myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention: a nationwide prospective analysis of the AMIS Plus registry

BACKGROUND Recently, it has been suggested that the type of stent used in primary percutaneous coronary interventions (pPCI) might impact upon the outcomes of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Indeed, drug-eluting stents (DES) reduce neointimal hyperplasia compared to bare-metal stents (BMS). Moreover, the later generation DES, due to its biocompatible polymer coatings and stent design, allows for greater deliverability, improved endothelial healing and therefore less restenosis and thrombus generation. However, data on the safety and performance of DES in large cohorts of AMI is still limited. AIM To compare the early outcome of DES vs. BMS in AMI patients. METHODS This was a prospective, multicentre analysis containing patients from 64 hospitals in Switzerland with AMI undergoing pPCI between 2005 and 2013. The primary endpoint was in-hospital all-cause death, whereas the secondary endpoint included a composite measure of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) of death, reinfarction, and cerebrovascular event. RESULTS Of 20,464 patients with a primary diagnosis of AMI and enrolled to the AMIS Plus registry, 15,026 were referred for pPCI and 13,442 received stent implantation. 10,094 patients were implanted with DES and 2,260 with BMS. The overall in-hospital mortality was significantly lower in patients with DES compared to those with BMS implantation (2.6% vs. 7.1%,p < 0.001). The overall in-hospital MACCE after DES was similarly lower compared to BMS (3.5% vs. 7.6%, p < 0.001). After adjusting for all confounding covariables, DES remained an independent predictor for lower in-hospital mortality (OR 0.51,95% CI 0.40-0.67, p < 0.001). Since groups differed as regards to baseline characteristics and pharmacological treatment, we performed a propensity score matching (PSM) to limit potential biases. Even after the PSM, DES implantation remained independently associated with a reduced risk of in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.39-0.76, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS In unselected patients from a nationwide, real-world cohort, we found DES, compared to BMS, was associated with lower in-hospital mortality and MACCE. The identification of optimal treatment strategies of patients with AMI needs further randomised evaluation; however, our findings suggest a potential benefit with DES.

Mid-term results of aortic root replacement using a self-assembled biological composite graft.

OBJECTIVES To report the mid-term results of aortic root replacement using a self-assembled biological composite graft, consisting of a vascular tube graft and a stented tissue valve. METHODS Between January 2005 and December 2011, 201 consecutive patients [median age 66 (interquartile range, IQR, 55-77) years, 31 female patients (15.4%), median logistic EuroSCORE 10 (IQR 6.8-23.2)] underwent aortic root replacement using a stented tissue valve for the following indications: annulo-aortic ectasia or ascending aortic aneurysm with aortic valve disease in 162 (76.8%) patients, active infective endocarditis in 18 (9.0%) and acute aortic dissection Stanford type A in 21 (10.4%). All patients underwent clinical and echocardiographic follow-up. We analysed survival and valve-related events. RESULTS The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 4.5%. One- and 5-year cardiac-related mortality rates were 3 and 6%, and overall survival was 95 ± 1.5 and 75 ± 3.6%, respectively. The rate of freedom from structural valve failure was 99% and 97 ± 0.4% at the 1- and 5-year follow-up, respectively. The incidence rates of prosthetic valve endocarditis were 3 and 4%, respectively. During a median follow-up of 28 (IQR 14-51) months, only 2 (1%) patients required valve-related redo surgery due to prosthetic valvular endocarditis and none suffered from thromboembolic events. One percent of patients showed structural valve deterioration without any clinical symptoms; none of the patients suffered greater than mild aortic regurgitation. CONCLUSIONS Aortic root replacement using a self-assembled biological composite graft is an interesting option. Haemodynamic results are excellent, with freedom from structured valve failure. Need for reoperation is extremely low, but long-term results are necessary to prove the durability of this concept.

Favourable mid-term outcome after heart transplantation for late Fontan failure.

OBJECTIVES Fontan failure (FF) represents a growing and challenging indication for paediatric orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT). The aim of this study was to identify predictors of the best mid-term outcome in OHT after FF. METHODS Twenty-year multi-institutional retrospective analysis on OHT for FF. RESULTS Between 1991 and 2011, 61 patients, mean age 15.0 ± 9.7 years, underwent OHT for failing atriopulmonary connection (17 patients = 27.8%) or total cavopulmonary connection (44 patients = 72.2%). Modality of FF included arrhythmia (14.8%), complex obstructions in the Fontan circuit (16.4%), protein-losing enteropathy (PLE) (22.9%), impaired ventricular function (31.1%) or a combination of the above (14.8%). The mean time interval between Fontan completion and OHT was 10.7 ± 6.6 years. Early FF occurred in 18%, requiring OHT 0.8 ± 0.5 years after Fontan. The hospital mortality rate was 18.3%, mainly secondary to infection (36.4%) and graft failure (27.3%). The mean follow-up was 66.8 ± 54.2 months. The overall Kaplan-Meier survival estimate was 81.9 ± 1.8% at 1 year, 73 ± 2.7% at 5 years and 56.8 ± 4.3% at 10 years. The Kaplan-Meier 5-year survival estimate was 82.3 ± 5.9% in late FF and 32.7 ± 15.0% in early FF (P = 0.0007). Late FF with poor ventricular function exhibited a 91.5 ± 5.8% 5-year OHT survival. PLE was cured in 77.7% of hospital survivors, but the 5-year Kaplan-Meier survival estimate in PLE was 46.3 ± 14.4 vs 84.3 ± 5.5% in non-PLE (P = 0.0147). Cox proportional hazards identified early FF (P = 0.0005), complex Fontan pathway obstruction (P = 0.0043) and PLE (P = 0.0033) as independent predictors of 5-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS OHT is an excellent surgical option for late FF with impaired ventricular function. Protein dispersion improves with OHT, but PLE negatively affects the mid-term OHT outcome, mainly for early infective complications.

A Simple Guideline Reduces the Need for Red Blood Cell Transfusions in Swiss Hospitals: A Prospective, Multicentre, Before-and-After Study in Elective Hip and Knee Replacement

INTRODUCTION Optimising the use of blood has become a core task of transfusion medicine. Because no general guidelines are available in Switzerland, we analysed the effects of the introduction of a guideline on red blood cell (RBC) transfusion for elective orthopaedic surgery. METHODS Prospective, multicentre, before-and-after study comparing the use of RBCs in adult elective hip or knee replacement before and after the implementation of a guideline in 10 Swiss hospitals, developed together with all participants. RESULTS We included 2,134 patients, 1,238 in 7 months before, 896 in 6 months after intervention. 57 (34 or 2.7% before, 23 or 2.6% after) were lost before follow-up visit. The mean number of transfused RBC units decreased from 0.5 to 0.4 per patient (0.1, 95% CI 0.08-0.2; p = 0.014), the proportion of transfused patients from 20.9% to 16.9% (4%, 95% C.I. 0.7-7.4%; p = 0.02), and the pre-transfusion haemoglobin from 82.6 to 78.2 g/l (4.4 g/l, 95% C. I. 2.15-6.62 g/l, p < 0.001). We did not observe any statistically significant changes in in-hospital mortality (0.4% vs. 0%) and morbidity (4.1% vs. 4.0%), median hospital length of stay (9 vs. 9 days), follow-up mortality (0.4% vs. 0.2%) and follow-up morbidity (6.9% vs. 6.0%). CONCLUSIONS The introduction of a simple transfusion guideline reduces and standardises the use of RBCs by decreasing the haemoglobin transfusion trigger, without negative effects on the patient outcome. Local support, training, and monitoring of the effects are requirements for programmes optimising the use of blood.

The value of serial serum lactate measurements in predicting the extent of ischemic bowel and outcome of patients suffering acute mesenteric ischemia

BACKGROUND Acute mesenteric ischemia (AMI) is an emergency with a mortality rate up to 50 %. Detecting AMI continues to be a major challenge. This study assed the correlation of repeated preoperative serum lactate with bowel necrosis and to identify risk factors for a lethal outcome in patients with AMI. METHODS A retrospective study of 91 patients with clinically and pathologically confirmed AMI from January 2006 to December 2012 was performed. RESULTS In-hospital mortality rate was 42.9 %. Two hundred nine preoperative lactate measurements were analyzed (2.3 ± 1.1 values per patient). Less than or equal to six hours prior to surgery, the mean serum lactate level was significantly higher (4.97 ± 4.21 vs. 3.24 ± 3.05 mmol/L, p = 0.006) and the mean pH significantly lower (7.28 ± 0.12 vs. 7.37 ± 0.08, p = 0.001) compared to >6 h before surgery. Thirty-four patients had at least two lactate measurements within 24 h prior to surgery. In this subgroup, 17 patients (50 %) exhibited an increase, 17 patients (50 %) a decrease in lactate levels. Forward logistic regression analysis showed that length of necrotic bowel and the highest lactate value 24 h prior to surgery were independent risk factors for mortality (r (2)  = 0.329). CONCLUSION The value of serial lactate and pH measurements to predict the length of necrotic bowel is very limited. Length of necrotic bowel and lactate values are independent risk factors for mortality.

Comparison of prasugrel and clopidogrel-treated patients with acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: A propensity score-matched analysis of the Acute Myocardial Infarction in Switzerland (AMIS)-Plus Registry

OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to investigate outcomes of patients treated with prasugrel or clopidogrel after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in a nationwide acute coronary syndrome (ACS) registry. BACKGROUND Prasugrel was found to be superior to clopidogrel in a randomized trial of ACS patients undergoing PCI. However, little is known about its efficacy in everyday practice. METHODS All ACS patients enrolled in the Acute Myocardial Infarction in Switzerland (AMIS)-Plus registry undergoing PCI and being treated with a thienopyridine P2Y12 inhibitor between January 2010-December 2013 were included in this analysis. Patients were stratified according to treatment with prasugrel or clopidogrel and outcomes were compared using propensity score matching. The primary endpoint was a composite of death, recurrent infarction and stroke at hospital discharge. RESULTS Out of 7621 patients, 2891 received prasugrel (38%) and 4730 received clopidogrel (62%). Independent predictors of in-hospital mortality were age, Killip class >2, STEMI, Charlson comorbidity index >1, and resuscitation prior to admission. After propensity score matching (2301 patients per group), the primary endpoint was significantly lower in prasugrel-treated patients (3.0% vs 4.3%; p=0.022) while bleeding events were more frequent (4.1% vs 3.0%; p=0.048). In-hospital mortality was significantly reduced (1.8% vs 3.1%; p=0.004), but no significant differences were observed in rates of recurrent infarction (0.8% vs 0.7%; p=1.00) or stroke (0.5% vs 0.6%; p=0.85). In a predefined subset of matched patients with one-year follow-up (n=1226), mortality between discharge and one year was not significantly reduced in prasugrel-treated patients (1.3% vs 1.9%, p=0.38). CONCLUSIONS In everyday practice in Switzerland, prasugrel is predominantly used in younger patients with STEMI undergoing primary PCI. A propensity score-matched analysis suggests a mortality benefit from prasugrel compared with clopidogrel in these patients.

Impact of hypertension on the outcome of patients admitted with acute coronary syndrome

OBJECTIVE The role of hypertension and its impact on outcome in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is still debated. This study aimed to compare the outcomes of hypertensive and nonhypertensive ACS patients. METHODS Using data of ACS patients enrolled in the Acute Myocardial Infarction in Switzerland Plus Registry from 1997 to 2013, characteristics at presentation and outcomes in hospital and after 1 year were analyzed. Hypertension was defined as previously diagnosed and treated by a physician. The primary endpoint was mortality. Data were analyzed using multiple logistic regressions. RESULTS Among 41 771 ACS patients, 16 855 (40.4%) were without and 24 916 (59.6%) with preexisting hypertension. Patients with preexisting hypertension had a more favorable in-hospital outcome [odds ratio (OR) in-hospital mortality 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.93; P = 0.022]. The independent predictors of in-hospital mortality for patients with preexisting hypertension were age, Killip class greater than 2, Charlson Comorbidity Index greater than 1, no pretreatment with statins and lower admission systemic blood pressure. Preexisting hypertension was not an independent predictor of 1-year mortality in the subgroup of patients (n = 7801) followed: OR 1.07, 95% CI 0.78-1.47; P = 0.68. Independent predictors of mortality 1 year after discharge for the 4796 patients with preexisting hypertension were age, male sex and comorbidities. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor antagonists and statins prescribed at discharge improved the outcomes. CONCLUSION Outcome of ACS patients with preexisting hypertension was associated with an improved in-hospital prognosis after adjustment for their higher baseline risk. However, this effect was not long-lasting and does not necessarily mean a causal relationship exists. Short-term and long-term management of patients with hypertension admitted with ACS could be further improved.

Prognostic Value of Secretoneurin in Critically Ill Patients With Infections.

OBJECTIVES Secretoneurin is produced in neuroendocrine cells, and the myocardium and circulating secretoneurin levels provide incremental prognostic information to established risk indices in cardiovascular disease. As myocardial dysfunction contributes to poor outcome in critically ill patients, we wanted to assess the prognostic value of secretoneurin in two cohorts of critically ill patients with infections. DESIGN Two prospective, observational studies. SETTING Twenty-four and twenty-five ICUs in Finland. PATIENTS A total of 232 patients with severe sepsis (cohort #1) and 94 patients with infections and respiratory failure (cohort #2). INTERVENTIONS None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS We measured secretoneurin levels by radioimmunoassay in samples obtained early after ICU admission and compared secretoneurin with other risk indices. In patients with severe sepsis, admission secretoneurin levels (logarithmically transformed) were associated with hospital mortality (odds ratio, 3.17 [95% CI, 1.12-9.00]; p = 0.030) and shock during the hospitalization (odds ratio, 2.17 [1.06-4.46]; p = 0.034) in analyses that adjusted for other risk factors available on ICU admission. Adding secretoneurin levels to age, which was also associated with hospital mortality in the multivariate model, improved the risk prediction as assessed by the category-free net reclassification index: 0.35 (95% CI, 0.06-0.64) (p = 0.02). In contrast, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels were not associated with mortality in the multivariate model that included secretoneurin measurements, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide did not improve patient classification on top of age. Secretoneurin levels were also associated with hospital mortality after adjusting for other risk factors and improved patient classification in cohort #2. In both cohorts, the optimal cutoff for secretoneurin levels at ICU admission to predict hospital mortality was ≈ 175 pmol/L, and higher levels were associated with mortality also when adjusting for Simplified Acute Physiology Score II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores. CONCLUSIONS Secretoneurin levels provide incremental information to established risk indices for the prediction of mortality and shock in critically ill patients with severe infections.

External validation of the Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model for predicting death within 1 year after hospital admission

BACKGROUND Predicting long-term survival after admission to hospital is helpful for clinical, administrative and research purposes. The Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model was derived and internally validated to predict the risk of death within 1 year after admission. We conducted an external validation of the model in a large multicentre study. METHODS We used administrative data for all nonpsychiatric admissions of adult patients to hospitals in the provinces of Ontario (2003-2010) and Alberta (2011-2012), and to the Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston (2010-2012) to calculate each patient's HOMR score at admission. The HOMR score is based on a set of parameters that captures patient demographics, health burden and severity of acute illness. We determined patient status (alive or dead) 1 year after admission using population-based registries. RESULTS The 3 validation cohorts (n = 2,862,996 in Ontario, 210 595 in Alberta and 66,683 in Boston) were distinct from each other and from the derivation cohort. The overall risk of death within 1 year after admission was 8.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.7% to 8.8%). The HOMR score was strongly and significantly associated with risk of death in all populations and was highly discriminative, with a C statistic ranging from 0.89 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.91) to 0.92 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.92). Observed and expected outcome risks were similar (median absolute difference in percent dying in 1 yr 0.3%, interquartile range 0.05%-2.5%). INTERPRETATION The HOMR score, calculated using routinely collected administrative data, accurately predicted the risk of death among adult patients within 1 year after admission to hospital for nonpsychiatric indications. Similar performance was seen when the score was used in geographically and temporally diverse populations. The HOMR model can be used for risk adjustment in analyses of health administrative data to predict long-term survival among hospital patients.

Nutritional risk is a clinical predictor of postoperative mortality and morbidity in surgery for colorectal cancer

This study investigated whether nutritional risk scores applied at hospital admission predict mortality and complications after colorectal cancer surgery.