A meta-analysis of trabecular bone score in fracture risk prediction and its relationship to FRAX

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a grey-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a BMD-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables and outcomes during follow up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% CI: 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR 1.32, 95%CI: 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95%CI: 1.65, 1.87 vs. 1.70, 95%CI: 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Normal Thyroid Function and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: the Rotterdam Study

CONTEXT Hyperthyroidism is an established risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), but information concerning the association with variations within the normal range of thyroid function and subgroups at risk is lacking. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to investigate the association between normal thyroid function and AF prospectively and explore potential differential risk patterns. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS From the Rotterdam Study we included 9166 participants ≥ 45 y with TSH and/or free T4 (FT4) measurements and AF assessment (1997-2012 median followup, 6.8 y), with 399 prevalent and 403 incident AF cases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Outcome measures were 3-fold: 1) hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of incident AF by Cox proportional-hazards models, 2) 10-year absolute risks taking competing risk of death into account, and 3) discrimination ability of adding FT4 to the CHARGE-AF simple model, an established prediction model for AF. RESULTS Higher FT4 levels were associated with higher risks of AF (HR 1.63, 95% confidence interval, 1.19-2.22), when comparing those in the highest quartile to those in lowest quartile. Absolute 10-year risks increased with higher FT4 in participants ≤ 65 y from 1-9% and from 6-12% in subjects ≥ 65 y. Discrimination of the prediction model improved when adding FT4 to the simple model (c-statistic, 0.722 vs 0.729; P = .039). TSH levels were not associated with AF. CONCLUSIONS There is an increased risk of AF with higher FT4 levels within the normal range, especially in younger subjects. Adding FT4 to the simple model slightly improved discrimination of risk prediction.

Risk of Cerebral Venous Thrombosis in Obese Women.

IMPORTANCE Obesity is a risk factor for deep vein thrombosis of the leg and pulmonary embolism. To date, however, whether obesity is associated with adult cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) has not been assessed. OBJECTIVE To assess whether obesity is a risk factor for CVT. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A case-control study was performed in consecutive adult patients with CVT admitted from July 1, 2006 (Amsterdam), and October 1, 2009 (Berne), through December 31, 2014, to the Academic Medical Center in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, or Inselspital University Hospital in Berne, Switzerland. The control group was composed of individuals from the control population of the Multiple Environmental and Genetic Assessment of Risk Factors for Venous Thrombosis study, which was a large Dutch case-control study performed from March 1, 1999, to September 31, 2004, and in which risk factors for deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism were assessed. Data analysis was performed from January 2 to July 12, 2015. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Obesity was determined by body mass index (BMI). A BMI of 30 or greater was considered to indicate obesity, and a BMI of 25 to 29.99 was considered to indicate overweight. A multiple imputation procedure was used for missing data. We adjusted for sex, age, history of cancer, ethnicity, smoking status, and oral contraceptive use. Individuals with normal weight (BMI <25) were the reference category. RESULTS The study included 186 cases and 6134 controls. Cases were younger (median age, 40 vs 48 years), more often female (133 [71.5%] vs 3220 [52.5%]), more often used oral contraceptives (97 [72.9%] vs 758 [23.5%] of women), and more frequently had a history of cancer (17 [9.1%] vs 235 [3.8%]) compared with controls. Obesity (BMI ≥30) was associated with an increased risk of CVT (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.63; 95% CI, 1.53-4.54). Stratification by sex revealed a strong association between CVT and obesity in women (adjusted OR, 3.50; 95% CI, 2.00-6.14) but not in men (adjusted OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.25-5.30). Further stratification revealed that, in women who used oral contraceptives, overweight and obesity were associated with an increased risk of CVT in a dose-dependent manner (BMI 25.0-29.9: adjusted OR, 11.87; 95% CI, 5.94-23.74; BMI ≥30: adjusted OR, 29.26; 95% CI, 13.47-63.60). No association was found in women who did not use oral contraceptives. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Obesity is a strong risk factor for CVT in women who use oral contraceptives.

Sexual Activity Without Condoms and Risk of HIV Transmission in Serodifferent Couples When the HIV-Positive Partner Is Using Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy

Importance A key factor in assessing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART) as a prevention strategy is the absolute risk of HIV transmission through condomless sex with suppressed HIV-1 RNA viral load for both anal and vaginal sex. Objective To evaluate the rate of within-couple HIV transmission (heterosexual and men who have sex with men [MSM]) during periods of sex without condoms and when the HIV-positive partner had HIV-1 RNA load less than 200 copies/mL. Design, Setting, and Participants The prospective, observational PARTNER (Partners of People on ART-A New Evaluation of the Risks) study was conducted at 75 clinical sites in 14 European countries and enrolled 1166 HIV serodifferent couples (HIV-positive partner taking suppressive ART) who reported condomless sex (September 2010 to May 2014). Eligibility criteria for inclusion of couple-years of follow-up were condomless sex and HIV-1 RNA load less than 200 copies/mL. Anonymized phylogenetic analysis compared couples' HIV-1 polymerase and envelope sequences if an HIV-negative partner became infected to determine phylogenetically linked transmissions. Exposures Condomless sexual activity with an HIV-positive partner taking virally suppressive ART. Main Outcomes and Measures Risk of within-couple HIV transmission to the HIV-negative partner. Results Among 1166 enrolled couples, 888 (mean age, 42 years [IQR, 35-48]; 548 heterosexual [61.7%] and 340 MSM [38.3%]) provided 1238 eligible couple-years of follow-up (median follow-up, 1.3 years [IQR, 0.8-2.0]). At baseline, couples reported condomless sex for a median of 2 years (IQR, 0.5-6.3). Condomless sex with other partners was reported by 108 HIV-negative MSM (33%) and 21 heterosexuals (4%). During follow-up, couples reported condomless sex a median of 37 times per year (IQR, 15-71), with MSM couples reporting approximately 22 000 condomless sex acts and heterosexuals approximately 36 000. Although 11 HIV-negative partners became HIV-positive (10 MSM; 1 heterosexual; 8 reported condomless sex with other partners), no phylogenetically linked transmissions occurred over eligible couple-years of follow-up, giving a rate of within-couple HIV transmission of zero, with an upper 95% confidence limit of 0.30/100 couple-years of follow-up. The upper 95% confidence limit for condomless anal sex was 0.71 per 100 couple-years of follow-up. Conclusions and Relevance Among serodifferent heterosexual and MSM couples in which the HIV-positive partner was using suppressive ART and who reported condomless sex, during median follow-up of 1.3 years per couple, there were no documented cases of within-couple HIV transmission (upper 95% confidence limit, 0.30/100 couple-years of follow-up). Additional longer-term follow-up is necessary to provide more precise estimates of risk.

Risk stratification of normotensive patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism

Treatment guidelines recommend strong consideration of thrombolysis in patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE) that present with arterial hypotension or shock because of the high risk of death in this setting. For haemodynamically stable patients with PE, the categorization of risk for subgroups may assist with decision-making regarding PE therapy. Clinical models [e.g. Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI)] may accurately identify those at low risk of overall death in the first 3 months after the diagnosis of PE, and such patients might benefit from an abbreviated hospital stay or outpatient therapy. Though some evidence suggests that a subset of high-risk normotensive patients with PE may have a reasonable risk to benefit ratio for thrombolytic therapy, single markers of right ventricular dysfunction (e.g. echocardiography, spiral computed tomography, or brain natriuretic peptide testing) and myocardial injury (e.g. cardiac troponin T or I testing) have an insufficient positive predictive value for PE-specific mortality to drive decision-making toward such therapy. Recommendations for outpatient treatment or thrombolytic therapy for patients with PE necessitate further development of prognostic models and conduct of clinical trials that assess various treatment strategies.

Personality disorders and accentuations in at-risk persons with and without conversion to first-episode psychosis

The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition Cluster A personality disorders (PDs), particularly schizotypal PD, are considered a part of the schizophrenia spectrum and a risk factor of psychosis. The role of PDs and personality accentuations (PAs) in predicting conversion to psychosis was studied in patients symptomatically considered at risk, assuming a major role of the schizotypal subtype.

Detection of latent tuberculosis in immunosuppressed patients with autoimmune diseases: performance of a Mycobacterium tuberculosis antigen-specific interferon gamma assay

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the performance of a new M. tuberculosis-specific interferon gamma (IFNgamma) assay in patients with chronic inflammatory diseases who receive immunosuppressive drugs, including tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) inhibitors. METHODS: Cellular immune responses to the M. tuberculosis-specific antigens ESAT-6, CFP-10, TB7.7 were prospectively studied in 142 consecutive patients treated for inflammatory rheumatic conditions. Results were compared with tuberculin skin tests (TSTs). Association of both tests with risk factors for latent M. tuberculosis infection (LTBI) and BCG vaccination were determined and the influence of TNFalpha inhibitors, corticosteroids, and disease modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) on antigen-specific and mitogen-induced IFNgamma secretion was analysed. RESULTS: 126/142 (89%) patients received immunosuppressive therapy. The IFNgamma assay was more closely associated with the presence of risk factors (odds ratio (OR) = 23.8 (95% CI 5.14 to 110) vs OR = 2.77 (1.22 to 6.27), respectively; p = 0.009), but less associated with BCG vaccination than the TST (OR = 0.47 (95% CI 0.15 to 1.47) vs OR = 2.44 (0.74 to (8.01), respectively; p = 0.025). Agreement between the IFNgamma assay and TST results was low (kappa = 0.17; 95% CI 0.02 to 0.32). The odds for a positive IFNgamma assay strongly increased with increasing prognostic relevance of LTBI risk factors. Neither corticosteroids nor conventional DMARDs significantly affected IFNgamma responses, but the odds for a positive IFNgamma assay were decreased in patients treated with TNFalpha inhibitors (OR = 0.21 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.63), respectively; p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that the performance of the M. tuberculosis antigen-specific IFNgamma ELISA is better than the classic TST for detection of LTBI in patients receiving immunosuppressive therapy for treatment of systemic autoimmune disorders.

Recurrent ischemic colitis in a patient with leiden factor V mutation and systemic lupus erythematous with antiphospholipid syndrome

Ischemic colitis results from insufficient blood supply to the large intestine and is often associated with hypercoagulable states. The condition comprises a wide range presenting with mild to fulminant forms. Diagnosis remains difficult because these patients may present with non-specific abdominal symptoms. We report a 51- year-old female patient with known Leiden factor V mutation as well as systemic lupus erythematous along with antiphospholipid syndrome suffering from recurrent ischemic colitis. At admission, the patient complained about abdominal pain, diarrhea and rectal bleeding lasting for 24 hours. Laboratory tests showed an increased C-reactive protein (29.5 mg/dl), while the performed abdominal CT-scan revealed only a dilatation of the descending colon along with a thickening of the bowel wall. Laparotomy was performed showing an ischemic colon and massive peritonitis. Histological examination proved the suspected ischemic colitis. Consecutively, an anti-coagulation therapy with coumarin and aspirin 100 was initiated. Up to the time point of a follow up examination no further ischemic events had occurred. This case illustrates well the non-specific clinical presentation of ischemic colitis. A high index of suspicion, recognition of risk factors and a history of non-specific abdominal symptoms should alert the clinicians to the possibility of ischemic disease. Early diagnosis and initiation of anticoagulation therapy or surgical intervention in case of peritonitis are the major goals of therapy.

Influence of residual pockets on progression of periodontitis and tooth loss: results after 11 years of maintenance

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence exists on the significance of residual probing pocket depth (PPD) as a predictive parameter for periodontal disease progression and tooth loss. AIM: The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of residual PPD >or=5 mm and bleeding on probing (BOP) after active periodontal therapy (APT) on the progression of periodontitis and tooth loss. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this retrospective cohort, 172 patients were examined after APT and supportive periodontal therapy (SPT) for 3-27 years (mean 11.3 years). Analyses were conducted using information at site, tooth and patient levels. The association of risk factors with tooth loss and progression of periodontitis was investigated using multilevel logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The number of residual PPD increased during SPT. Compared with PPDrisk factor for tooth loss with odds ratios of 5.8 and 7.7, respectively, at site and tooth levels. The corresponding odds ratios for PPD=6 mm were 9.3 and 11.0 and for PPD>or=7 mm 37.9 and 64.2, respectively. At patient level, heavy smoking, initial diagnosis, duration of SPT and PPD>or=6 mm were risk factors for disease progression, while PPD>or=6 mm and BOP>or=30% represented a risk for tooth loss. CONCLUSION: Residual PPD>or=6 mm represent an incomplete periodontal treatment outcome and require further therapy.

Prognosis in pediatric hematologic malignancies is associated with serum concentration of mannose-binding lectin-associated serine protease-2 (MASP-2)

BACKGROUND: Mannose-binding lectin (MBL) and MBL-associated serine protease-2 (MASP-2) are key components of the lectin pathway of complement activation. Their serum concentrations show a wide interindividual variability. This study investigated whether the concentration of MBL and MASP-2 is associated with prognosis in pediatric patients with cancer. METHODS: In this retrospective multicenter study, MBL and MASP-2 were measured by commercially available ELISA in frozen remnants of serum taken at diagnosis. Associations of overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) with MBL and MASP-2 were assessed by multivariate Cox regression accounting for prognostically relevant clinical variables. RESULTS: In the 372 patients studied, median serum concentration of MBL was 2,808 microg/L (range, 2-10,060) and 391 microg/L (46-2,771) for MASP-2. The estimated 4-year EFS was 0.60 (OS, 0.78). In the entire, heterogeneous sample, MBL and MASP-2 were not significantly associated with OS or EFS. In patients with hematologic malignancies, however, higher MASP-2 was associated with better EFS in a significant and clinically relevant way (hazard ratio per tenfold increase (HR), 0.22; 95% CI, 0.09-0.54; P = 0.001). This was due to patients with lymphoma (HR, 0.11; 95% CI, 0.03-0.47; P = 0.003), but less for those with acute leukemia (HR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.11-1.15; P = 0.083). CONCLUSION: In this study, higher MASP-2 was associated with better EFS in pediatric patients with hematologic malignancies, especially lymphoma. Whether MASP-2 is an independent prognostic factor affecting risk stratification and anticancer therapy needs to be assessed in prospective, disease-specific studies.

Group B Streptococcus colonization in pregnancy: prevalence and prevention strategies of neonatal sepsis

Early onset neonatal sepsis due to Group B streptococci (GBS) is responsible for severe morbidity and mortality of newborns. While different preventive strategies to identify women at risk are being recommended, the optimal strategy depends on the incidence of GBS-sepsis and on the prevalence of anogenital GBS colonization. We therefore aimed to assess the Group B streptococci prevalence and its consequences on different prevention strategies. We analyzed 1316 pregnant women between March 2005 and September 2006 at our institution. The prevalence of GBS colonization was determined by selective cultures of anogenital smears. The presence of risk factors was analyzed. In addition, the direct costs of screening and intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis were estimated for different preventive strategies. The prevalence of GBS colonization was 21%. Any maternal intrapartum risk factor was present in 37%. The direct costs of different prevention strategies have been estimated as follows: risk-based: 18,500 CHF/1000 live births, screening-based: 50,110 CHF/1000 live births, combined screening- and risk-based: 43,495/1000 live births. Strategies to prevent GBS-sepsis in newborn are necessary. With our colonization prevalence of 21%, and the intrapartum risk profile of women, the screening-based approach seems to be superior as compared to a risk-based approach.

Prevalence of tooth wear on buccal and lingual surfaces and possible risk factors in young European adults

To assess the prevalence of tooth wear on buccal/facial and lingual/palatal tooth surfaces and identify related risk factors in a sample of young European adults, aged 18-35 years. Calibrated and trained examiners measured tooth wear, using the basic erosive wear examination (BEWE) on in 3187 patients in seven European countries and assessed the impact of risk factors with a previously validated questionnaire. Each individual was characterized by the highest BEWE score recorded for any scoreable surface. Bivariate analyses examined the proportion of participants who scored 2 or 3 in relation to a range of demographic, dietary and oral care variables. The highest tooth wear BEWE score was 0 for 1368 patients (42.9%), 1 for 883 (27.7%), 2 for 831 (26.1%) and 3 for 105 (3.3%). There were large differences between different countries with the highest levels of tooth wear observed in the UK. Important risk factors for tooth wear included heartburn or acid reflux, repeated vomiting, residence in rural areas, electric tooth brushing and snoring. We found no evidence that waiting after breakfast before tooth brushing has any effect on the degree of tooth wear (p=0.088). Fresh fruit and juice intake was positively associated with tooth wear. In this adult sample 29% had signs of tooth wear making it a common presenting feature in European adults.

Transesophageal echocardiography in cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen ovale: analysis of putative high-risk features from the risk of paradoxical embolism database

BACKGROUND Patent foramen ovale (PFO) is associated with cryptogenic stroke (CS), although the pathogenicity of a discovered PFO in the setting of CS is typically unclear. Transesophageal echocardiography features such as PFO size, associated hypermobile septum, and presence of a right-to-left shunt at rest have all been proposed as markers of risk. The association of these transesophageal echocardiography features with other markers of pathogenicity has not been examined. METHODS AND RESULTS We used a recently derived score based on clinical and neuroimaging features to stratify patients with PFO and CS by the probability that their stroke is PFO-attributable. We examined whether high-risk transesophageal echocardiography features are seen more frequently in patients more likely to have had a PFO-attributable stroke (n=637) compared with those less likely to have a PFO-attributable stroke (n=657). Large physiologic shunt size was not more frequently seen among those with probable PFO-attributable strokes (odds ratio [OR], 0.92; P=0.53). The presence of neither a hypermobile septum nor a right-to-left shunt at rest was detected more often in those with a probable PFO-attributable stroke (OR, 0.80; P=0.45; OR, 1.15; P=0.11, respectively). CONCLUSIONS We found no evidence that the proposed transesophageal echocardiography risk markers of large PFO size, hypermobile septum, and presence of right-to-left shunt at rest are associated with clinical features suggesting that a CS is PFO-attributable. Additional tools to describe PFOs may be useful in helping to determine whether an observed PFO is incidental or pathogenically related to CS.

Neural correlates of evaluating hazards of high risk.

In personal and in society related context, people often evaluate the risk of environmental and technological hazards. Previous research addressing neuroscience of risk evaluation assessed particularly the direct personal risk of presented stimuli, which may have comprised for instance aspects of fear. Further, risk evaluation primarily was compared to tasks of other cognitive domains serving as control conditions, thus revealing general risk related brain activity, but not such specifically associated with estimating a higher level of risk. We here investigated the neural basis on which lay-persons individually evaluated the risk of different potential hazards for the society. Twenty healthy subjects underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while evaluating the risk of fifty more or less risky conditions presented as written terms. Brain activations during the individual estimations of 'high' against 'low' risk, and of negative versus neutral and positive emotional valences were analyzed. Estimating hazards to be of high risk was associated with activation in medial thalamus, anterior insula, caudate nucleus, cingulate cortex and further prefrontal and temporo-occipital areas. These areas were not involved according to an analysis of the emotion ratings. In conclusion, we emphasize a contribution of the mentioned brain areas involved to signal high risk, here not primarily associated with the emotional valence of the risk items. These areas have earlier been reported to be associated with, beside emotional, viscerosensitive and implicit processing. This leads to assumptions of an intuitive contribution, or a "gut-feeling", not necessarily dependent of the subjective emotional valence, when estimating a high risk of environmental hazards.

Effect of standardized training on the reliability of the Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool: a study protocol

BACKGROUND The Cochrane risk of bias (RoB) tool has been widely embraced by the systematic review community, but several studies have reported that its reliability is low. We aim to investigate whether training of raters, including objective and standardized instructions on how to assess risk of bias, can improve the reliability of this tool. We describe the methods that will be used in this investigation and present an intensive standardized training package for risk of bias assessment that could be used by contributors to the Cochrane Collaboration and other reviewers. METHODS/DESIGN This is a pilot study. We will first perform a systematic literature review to identify randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that will be used for risk of bias assessment. Using the identified RCTs, we will then do a randomized experiment, where raters will be allocated to two different training schemes: minimal training and intensive standardized training. We will calculate the chance-corrected weighted Kappa with 95% confidence intervals to quantify within- and between-group Kappa agreement for each of the domains of the risk of bias tool. To calculate between-group Kappa agreement, we will use risk of bias assessments from pairs of raters after resolution of disagreements. Between-group Kappa agreement will quantify the agreement between the risk of bias assessment of raters in the training groups and the risk of bias assessment of experienced raters. To compare agreement of raters under different training conditions, we will calculate differences between Kappa values with 95% confidence intervals. DISCUSSION This study will investigate whether the reliability of the risk of bias tool can be improved by training raters using standardized instructions for risk of bias assessment. One group of inexperienced raters will receive intensive training on risk of bias assessment and the other will receive minimal training. By including a control group with minimal training, we will attempt to mimic what many review authors commonly have to do, that is-conduct risk of bias assessment in RCTs without much formal training or standardized instructions. If our results indicate that an intense standardized training does improve the reliability of the RoB tool, our study is likely to help improve the quality of risk of bias assessments, which is a central component of evidence synthesis.