Late Holocene summer temperatures in the central Andes reconstructed from the sediments of high-elevatin Laguna Chepical, Chile (32° S)

High-resolution reconstructions of climate variability that cover the past millennia are necessary to improve the understanding of natural and anthropogenic climate change across the globe. Although numerous records are available for the mid- and high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, global assessments are still compromised by the scarcity of data from the Southern Hemisphere. This is particularly the case for the tropical and subtropical areas. In addition, high elevation sites in the South American Andes may provide insight into the vertical structure of climate change in the mid-troposphere. This study presents a 3000 yr-long austral summer (November to February) temperature reconstruction derived from the 210Pb- and 14C-dated organic sediments of Laguna Chepical (32°16' S, 70°30' W, 3050 m a.s.l.), a high-elevation glacial lake in the subtropical Andes of central Chile. Scanning reflectance spectroscopy in the visible light range provided the spectral index R570/R630, which reflects the clay mineral content in lake sediments. For the calibration period (AD 1901–2006), the R570/R630 data were regressed against monthly meteorological reanalysis data, showing that this proxy was strongly and significantly correlated with mean summer (NDJF) temperatures (R3 yr = −0.63, padj = 0.01). This calibration model was used to make a quantitative temperature reconstruction back to 1000 BC. The reconstruction (with a model error RMSEPboot of 0.33 °C) shows that the warmest decades of the past 3000 yr occurred during the calibration period. The 19th century (end of the Little Ice Age (LIA)) was cool. The prominent warmth reconstructed for the 18th century, which was also observed in other records from this area, seems systematic for subtropical and southern South America but remains difficult to explain. Except for this warm period, the LIA was generally characterized by cool summers. Back to AD 1400, the results from this study compare remarkably well to low altitude records from the Chilean Central Valley and southern South America. However, the reconstruction from Laguna Chepical does not show a warm Medieval Climate Anomaly during the 12–13th century, which is consistent with records from tropical South America. The Chepical record also indicates substantial cooling prior to 800 BC. This coincides with well-known regional as well as global glacier advances which have been attributed to a grand solar minimum. This study thus provides insight into the climatic drivers and temperature patterns in a region for which currently very few data are available. It also shows that since ca. AD 1400, long-term temperature patterns were generally similar at low and high altitudes in central Chile.

Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100 by 0.2 to 0.3 K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10 years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.

Cold-season temperatures in the European Alps during the past millennium: variability, seasonality and recent trends

This study presents a proxy-based, quantitative reconstruction of cold-season (mean October to May, TOct–May) air temperatures covering nearly the entire last millennium (AD 1060–2003, some hiatuses). The reconstruction was based on subfossil chrysophyte stomatocyst remains in the varved sediments of high-Alpine Lake Silvaplana, eastern Swiss Alps (46°27’N, 9°48′W, 1791 m a.s.l.). Previous studies have demonstrated the reliability of this proxy by comparison to meteorological data. Cold-season air temperatures could therefore be reconstructed quantitatively, at a high resolution (5-yr) and with high chronological accuracy. Spatial correlation analysis suggests that the reconstruction reflects cold season climate variability over the high- Alpine region and substantial parts of central and western Europe. Cold-season temperatures were characterized by a relatively stable first part of the millennium until AD 1440 (2σ of 5-yr mean values = 0.7 °C) and highly variable TOct–May after that (AD 1440–1900, 2σ of 5-yr mean values = 1.3 °C). Recent decades (AD, 1991-present) were unusually warm in the context of the last millennium (exceeding the 2σ-range of the mean decadal TOct–May) but this warmth was not unprecedented. The coolest decades occurred from AD 1510–1520 and AD 1880–1890. The timing of extremely warm and cold decades is generally in good agreement with documentary data representing Switzerland and central European lowlands. The transition from relatively stable to highly variable TOct–May coincided with large changes in atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic region. Comparison of reconstructed cold season temperatures to the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) during the past 1000 years showed that the relatively stable and warm conditions at the study site until AD 1440 coincided with a persistent positive mode of the NAO. We propose that the transition to large TOct–May variability around AD 1440 was linked to the subsequent absence of this persistent zonal flow pattern, which would allow other climatic drivers to gain importance in the study area. From AD 1440–1900, the similarity of reconstructed TOct–May to reconstructed air pressure in the Siberian High suggests a relatively strong influence of continental anticyclonic systems on Alpine cold season climate parameters during periods when westerly airflow was subdued. A more continental type of atmospheric circulation thus seems to be characteristic for the Little Ice Age in Europe. Comparison of Toct–May to summer temperature reconstructions from the same study site shows that, as expected, summer and cold season temperature trends and variability differed completely throughout nearly the entire last 1000 years. Since AD 1980, however, summer and cold season temperatures show a simultaneous, strong increase, which is unprecedented in the context of the last millennium. We suggest that the most likely explanation for this recent trend is anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing.

Magnetic resonance imaging findings in dogs with traumatic intervertebral disk extrusion with or without spinal cord compression: 31 cases (2006-2010)

OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence of spinal cord compression subsequent to traumatic intervertebral disk (IVD) extrusion in dogs, characterize factors associated with spinal cord compression in dogs with traumatic IVD extrusion, and evaluate the outcomes of dogs with traumatic IVD extrusion with or without spinal cord compression. DESIGN Retrospective case series. ANIMALS 31 dogs with traumatic IVD extrusion. PROCEDURES Medical records and MRI findings were reviewed for dogs with a history of trauma to the spinal region. Dogs were included in the study if a neurologic examination and MRI were performed and there was a description of clinical signs and MRI findings including identification of the spinal cord segment affected by IVD extrusion, presence or absence of spinal cord compression, treatment, and outcome available for review. RESULTS 31 of 50 (62%) dogs had traumatic IVD extrusions without any other detectable vertebral lesions; 9 (29%) and 22 (71%) of those 31 dogs did and did not have spinal cord compression, respectively. Dogs with spinal cord compression were significantly older and more likely to be chondrodystrophic and have evidence of generalized IVD degeneration, compared with dogs without spinal cord compression. The outcome for dogs with spinal cord compression was similar to that for dogs without spinal cord compression. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results indicated traumatic IVD extrusion was common and should be considered as a differential diagnosis for dogs with trauma to the spinal region, and spinal cord compression should be evaluated, especially in older or chondrodystrophic dogs.

Clinical and pathological analysis of epidural inflammation in intervertebral disk extrusion in dogs

BACKGROUND Little is known about the pathologic changes in the epidural space after intervertebral disk (IVD) extrusion in the dog. OBJECTIVES To analyze the pathology of the epidural inflammatory response, and to search for correlations between this process and clinical findings. METHODS Clinical data from 105 chondrodystrophic (CD) and nonchondrodystrophic (NCD) dogs with IVD extrusion were recorded. Epidural material from these dogs was examined histopathologically and immunohistochemically. Using statistical analysis, we searched for correlations between severity of epidural inflammation and various clinical and pathologic variables. RESULTS Most dogs exhibited an epidural inflammatory response, ranging from acute invasion of neutrophils to formation of chronic granulation tissue. The mononuclear inflammatory infiltrates consisted mostly of monocytes and macrophages and only few T and B cells. Surprisingly, chronic inflammatory patterns also were found in animals with an acute clinical history. Severity of the epidural inflammation correlated with degree of the epidural hemorrhage and nucleus pulposus calcification (P = .003 and .040), but not with age, chondrodystrophic phenotype, neurologic grade, back pain, pretreatment, or duration. The degree of inflammation was statistically (P = .021) inversely correlated with the ability to regain ambulation. CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE Epidural inflammation occurs in the majority of dogs with IVD extrusion and may develop long before the onset of clinical signs. Presence of calcified IVD material and hemorrhage in the epidural space may be the triggers of this lesion rather than an adaptive immune response to the nucleus pulposus as suggested in previous studies. Because epidural inflammation may affect outcome, further research is warranted.

Far lateral lumbar disc extrusion: MRI findings and surgical treatment

This case report describes the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings and the treatment of a far lateral extrusion of disc material at the sixth and seventh lumbar vertebrae (L6-L7) in a five-year-old male Alpine Dachsbracke dog referred to our hospital for investigation of the complaint of a one week progressive lameness in the left pelvic limb and poorly localized back pain. An extra-foraminal left lateral disc herniation impinging on the sixth lumbar nerve root was diagnosed by MRI examinations. Due to the far lateral position of the extruded disc material on MRI, surgical opening of the spinal canal was not necessary. Removal of the herniated soft disc material impinging on the L6 nerve root, and fenestration of the L6-L7 disc was performed laterally. To the author's knowledge 'far-lateral' disc herniation beyond the neuroforamen without any spinal canal contact has not been described in dogs until now. A complete recovery with no evidence of pain was achieved only after a couple of weeks after surgery. We acknowledge that it is possible that other pathological mechanisms may have contributed to clinical signs and to a delayed recovery.

Molecular characterisation and expression of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) myoglobin from two populations held at two different acclimation temperatures.

Much previous research has demonstrated the plasticity of myoglobin concentrations in both cardiac and skeletal myocytes in response to hypoxia and training. No study has yet looked at the effect of thermal acclimation on myoglobin in fish. Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) from two different populations, i.e. the North Sea and the North East Arctic, were acclimated to 10 and 4 degrees C. Both the myoglobin mRNA and myoglobin protein in cod hearts increased significantly by up to 3.7 and 2.3 fold respectively as a result of acclimation to 4 degrees C. These increments were largest in the Arctic population, which in earlier studies have been shown to possess cold compensated metabolic demands at low temperatures. These metabolic demands associated with higher mitochondrial capacities may have driven the increase in cardiac myoglobin concentrations, in order to support diffusive oxygen supply. At the same time the increase in myoglobin levels may serve further functions during cold acclimation, for example, protection of the cell against reactive oxygen species, and scavenging nitric oxide, thereby contributing to the regulation of mitochondrial volume density.

The surface temperatures of Earth: steps towards integrated understanding of variability and change

Surface temperature is a key aspect of weather and climate, but the term may refer to different quantities that play interconnected roles and are observed by different means. In a community-based activity in June 2012, the EarthTemp Network brought together 55 researchers from five continents to improve the interaction between scientific communities who focus on surface temperature in particular domains, to exploit the strengths of different observing systems and to better meet the needs of different communities. The workshop identified key needs for progress towards meeting scientific and societal requirements for surface temperature understanding and information, which are presented in this community paper. A "whole-Earth" perspective is required with more integrated, collaborative approaches to observing and understanding Earth's various surface temperatures. It is necessary to build understanding of the relationships between different surface temperatures, where presently inadequate, and undertake large-scale systematic intercomparisons. Datasets need to be easier to obtain and exploit for a wide constituency of users, with the differences and complementarities communicated in readily understood terms, and realistic and consistent uncertainty information provided. Steps were also recommended to curate and make available data that are presently inaccessible, develop new observing systems and build capacities to accelerate progress in the accuracy and usability of surface temperature datasets.

Investigating the sensitivity of hurricane intensity and trajectory to sea surface temperatures using the regional model WRF

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the hurricane characteristics are investigated in a set of sensitivity experiments employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The idealised experiments are performed for the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The first set of sensitivity experiments with basin-wide changes of the SST magnitude shows that the intensity goes along with changes in the SST, i.e., an increase in SST leads to an intensification of Katrina. Additionally, the trajectory is shifted to the west (east), with increasing (decreasing) SSTs. The main reason is a strengthening of the background flow. The second set of experiments investigates the influence of Loop Current eddies idealised by localised SST anomalies. The intensity of Hurricane Katrina is enhanced with increasing SSTs close to the core of a tropical cyclone. Negative nearby SST anomalies reduce the intensity. The trajectory only changes if positive SST anomalies are located west or north of the hurricane centre. In this case the hurricane is attracted by the SST anomaly which causes an additional moisture source and increased vertical winds.

Tree-ring-reconstructed summer temperatures from northwestern North America during the last nine centuries

Northwestern North America has one of the highest rates of recent temperature increase in the world, but the putative “divergence problem” in dendroclimatology potentially limits the ability of tree-ring proxy data at high latitudes to provide long-term context for current anthropogenic change. Here, summer temperatures are reconstructed from a Picea glauca maximum latewood density (MXD) chronology that shows a stable relationship to regional temperatures and spans most of the last millennium at the Firth River in northeastern Alaska. The warmest epoch in the last nine centuries is estimated to have occurred during the late twentieth century, with average temperatures over the last 30 yr of the reconstruction developed for this study [1973–2002 in the Common Era (CE)] approximately 1.3° ± 0.4°C warmer than the long-term preindustrial mean (1100–1850 CE), a change associated with rapid increases in greenhouse gases. Prior to the late twentieth century, multidecadal temperature fluctuations covary broadly with changes in natural radiative forcing. The findings presented here emphasize that tree-ring proxies can provide reliable indicators of temperature variability even in a rapidly warming climate.

Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum

The aim of this work is to elucidate the impact of changes in solar irradiance and energetic particles versus volcanic eruptions on tropospheric global climate during the Dalton Minimum (DM, AD 1780–1840). Separate variations in the (i) solar irradiance in the UV-C with wavelengths λ < 250 nm, (ii) irradiance at wavelengths λ > 250 nm, (iii) in energetic particle spectrum, and (iv) volcanic aerosol forcing were analyzed separately, and (v) in combination, by means of small ensemble calculations using a coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate model. Global and hemispheric mean surface temperatures show a significant dependence on solar irradiance at λ > 250 nm. Also, powerful volcanic eruptions in 1809, 1815, 1831 and 1835 significantly decreased global mean temperature by up to 0.5 K for 2–3 years after the eruption. However, while the volcanic effect is clearly discernible in the Southern Hemispheric mean temperature, it is less significant in the Northern Hemisphere, partly because the two largest volcanic eruptions occurred in the SH tropics and during seasons when the aerosols were mainly transported southward, partly because of the higher northern internal variability. In the simulation including all forcings, temperatures are in reasonable agreement with the tree ring-based temperature anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere. Interestingly, the model suggests that solar irradiance changes at λ < 250 nm and in energetic particle spectra have only an insignificant impact on the climate during the Dalton Minimum. This downscales the importance of top–down processes (stemming from changes at λ < 250 nm) relative to bottom–up processes (from λ > 250 nm). Reduction of irradiance at λ > 250 nm leads to a significant (up to 2%) decrease in the ocean heat content (OHC) between 0 and 300 m in depth, whereas the changes in irradiance at λ < 250 nm or in energetic particles have virtually no effect. Also, volcanic aerosol yields a very strong response, reducing the OHC of the upper ocean by up to 1.5%. In the simulation with all forcings, the OHC of the uppermost levels recovers after 8–15 years after volcanic eruption, while the solar signal and the different volcanic eruptions dominate the OHC changes in the deeper ocean and prevent its recovery during the DM. Finally, the simulations suggest that the volcanic eruptions during the DM had a significant impact on the precipitation patterns caused by a widening of the Hadley cell and a shift in the intertropical convergence zone.

Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: a global sensitivity analysis

We estimate the effects of climatic changes, as predicted by six climate models, on lake surface temperatures on a global scale, using the lake surface equilibrium temperature as a proxy. We evaluate interactions between different forcing variables, the sensitivity of lake surface temperatures to these variables, as well as differences between climate zones. Lake surface equilibrium temperatures are predicted to increase by 70 to 85 % of the increase in air temperatures. On average, air temperature is the main driver for changes in lake surface temperatures, and its effect is reduced by ~10 % by changes in other meteorological variables. However, the contribution of these other variables to the variance is ~40 % of that of air temperature, and their effects can be important at specific locations. The warming increases the importance of longwave radiation and evaporation for the lake surface heat balance compared to shortwave radiation and convective heat fluxes. We discuss the consequences of our findings for the design and evaluation of different types of studies on climate change effects on lakes.

Dominance of chemokine ligand 2 and matrix metalloproteinase-2 and -9 and suppression of pro-inflammatory cytokines in the epidural compartment after intervertebral disc extrusion in a canine model

BACKGROUND CONTEXT In canine intervertebral disc (IVD) disease, a useful animal model, only little is known about the inflammatory response in the epidural space. PURPOSE To determine messenger RNA (mRNA) expressions of selected cytokines, chemokines, and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) qualitatively and semiquantitatively over the course of the disease and to correlate results to neurologic status and outcome. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING Prospective study using extruded IVD material of dogs with thoracolumbar IVD extrusion. PATIENT SAMPLE Seventy affected and 13 control (24 samples) dogs. OUTCOME MEASURES Duration of neurologic signs, pretreatment, neurologic grade, severity of pain, and outcome were recorded. After diagnostic imaging, decompressive surgery was performed. METHODS Messenger RNA expressions of interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, tumor necrosis factor (TNF), interferon (IFN)γ, MMP-2, MMP-9, chemokine ligand (CCL)2, CCL3, and three housekeeping genes was determined in the collected epidural material by Panomics 2.0 QuantiGene Plex technology. Relative mRNA expression and fold changes were calculated. Relative mRNA expression was correlated statistically to clinical parameters. RESULTS Fold changes of TNF, IL-1β, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, IFNγ, and CCL3 were clearly downregulated in all stages of the disease. MMP-9 was downregulated in the acute stage and upregulated in the subacute and chronic phase. Interleukin-8 was upregulated in acute cases. MMP-2 showed mild and CCL2 strong upregulation over the whole course of the disease. In dogs with severe pain, CCL3 and IFNγ were significantly higher compared with dogs without pain (p=.017/.020). Dogs pretreated with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs revealed significantly lower mRNA expression of IL-8 (p=.017). CONCLUSIONS The high CCL2 levels and upregulated MMPs combined with downregulated T-cell cytokines and suppressed pro-inflammatory genes in extruded canine disc material indicate that the epidural reaction is dominated by infiltrating monocytes differentiating into macrophages with tissue remodeling functions. These results will help to understand the pathogenic processes representing the basis for novel therapeutic approaches. The canine IVD disease model will be rewarding in this process.

Stacking of discontinuous regional palaeoclimate records: Chironomid-based summer temperatures from the Alpine region

Since multi-site reconstructions are less affected by site-specific climatic effects and artefacts, regional palaeotemperature reconstructions based on a number of sites can provide more robust estimates of centennial- to millennial-scale temperature trends than individual, site-specific records. Furthermore, reconstructions based on multiple records are necessary for developing continuous climate records over time scales longer than covered by individual sequences. Here, we present a procedure for developing such reconstructions based on relatively short (centuries to millennia), discontinuously sampled records as are typically developed when using biotic proxies in lake sediments for temperature reconstruction. The approach includes an altitudinal correction of temperatures, an interpolation of individual records to equal time intervals, a stacking procedure for sections of the interval of interest that have the same records available, as well as a splicing procedure to link the individual stacked records into a continuous reconstruction. Variations in the final, stacked and spliced reconstruction are driven by variations in the individual records, whereas the absolute temperature values are determined by the stacked segment based on the largest number of records. With numerical simulations based on the NGRIP δ18O record, we demonstrate that the interpolation and stacking procedure provides an approximation of a smoothed palaeoclimate record if based on a sufficient number of discontinuously sampled records. Finally, we provide an example of a stacked and spliced palaeotemperature reconstruction 15000–90 calibrated 14C yr BP based on six chironomid records from the northern and central Swiss Alps and eastern France to discuss the potential and limitations of this approach.