A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics

Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.

Eco-Evolutionary Spatial Dynamics. Rapid Evolution and Isolation Explain Food Web Persistence

One of the current challenges in evolutionary ecology is understanding the long-term persistence of contemporary-evolving predator–prey interactions across space and time. To address this, we developed an extension of a multi-locus, multi-trait eco-evolutionary individual-based model that incorporates several interacting species in explicit landscapes. We simulated eco-evolutionary dynamics of multiple species food webs with different degrees of connectance across soil-moisture islands. A broad set of parameter combinations led to the local extinction of species, but some species persisted, and this was associated with (1) high connectance and omnivory and (2) ongoing evolution, due to multi-trait genetic variability of the embedded species. Furthermore, persistence was highest at intermediate island distances, likely because of a balance between predation-induced extinction (strongest at short island distances) and the coupling of island diversity by top predators, which by travelling among islands exert global top-down control of biodiversity. In the simulations with high genetic variation, we also found widespread trait evolutionary changes indicative of eco-evolutionary dynamics. We discuss how the ever-increasing computing power and high-resolution data availability will soon allow researchers to start bridging the in vivo–in silico gap.

Experimenting and modeling: sharp distinctions, integration or just a mess?

At first sight, experimenting and modeling form two distinct modes of scientific inquiry. This spurs philosophical debates about how the distinction should be drawn (e.g. Morgan 2005, Winsberg 2009, Parker 2009). But much scientific practice casts serious doubts on the idea that the distinction makes much sense. There are two worries. First, the practices of modeling and experimenting are often intertwined in intricate ways because much modeling involves experimenting, and the interpretation of many experiments relies upon models. Second, there are borderline cases that seem to blur the distinction between experiment and model (if there is any). My talk tries to defend the philosophical project of distinguishing models from experiment and to advance the related philosophical debate. I begin with providing a minimalist framework of conceptualizing experimenting and modeling and their mutual relationships. The methods are conceptualized as different types of activities that are characterized by a primary goal, respectively. The minimalist framwork, which should be uncontroversial, suffices to accommodate the first worry. I address the second worry by suggesting several ways how to conceptualize the distinction in a more flexible way. I make a concrete suggestion of how the distinction may be drawn. I use examples from the history of science to argue my case. The talk concentrates and models and experiments, but I will comment on simulations too.

Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe.

Effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness of homeopathy in general practice - summarized health technology assessment

Introduction: The Health Technology Assessment report on effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and appropriateness of homeopathy was compiled on behalf of the Swiss Federal Office for Public Health (BAG) within the framework of the 'Program of Evaluation of Complementary Medicine (PEK)'. Materials and Methods: Databases accessible by Internet were systematically searched, complemented by manual search and contacts with experts, and evaluated according to internal and external validity criteria. Results: Many high-quality investigations of pre-clinical basic research proved homeopathic high-potencies inducing regulative and specific changes in cells or living organisms. 20 of 22 systematic reviews detected at least a trend in favor of homeopathy. In our estimation 5 studies yielded results indicating clear evidence for homeopathic therapy. The evaluation of 29 studies in the domain 'Upper Respiratory Tract Infections/Allergic Reactions' showed a positive overall result in favor of homeopathy. 6 out of 7 controlled studies were at least equivalent to conventional medical interventions. 8 out of 16 placebocontrolled studies were significant in favor of homeopathy. Swiss regulations grant a high degree of safety due to product and training requirements for homeopathic physicians. Applied properly, classical homeopathy has few side-effects and the use of high-potencies is free of toxic effects. A general health-economic statement about homeopathy cannot be made from the available data. Conclusion: Taking internal and external validity criteria into account, effectiveness of homeopathy can be supported by clinical evidence and professional and adequate application be regarded as safe. Reliable statements of cost-effectiveness are not available at the moment. External and model validity will have to be taken more strongly into consideration in future studies.

The cytochrome P450 aromatase lacking exon 5 is associated with a phenotype of nonclassic aromatase deficiency and is also present in normal human steroidogenic tissues

OBJECTIVE: The previously described c655G>A mutation of the human cytochrome P450 aromatase gene (P450aro, CYP19) results in aberrant splicing due to disruption of a donor splice site. To explain the phenotype of partial aromatase deficiency observed in a female patient described with this mutation, molecular consequences of the c655G>A mutation were investigated. DESIGN: To investigate whether the c655G>A mutation causes an aberrant spliced mRNA lacking exon 5 (-Ex5), P450aro RNA was analysed from the patient's lymphocytes by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and by splicing assays performed in Y1 cells transfected with a P450aro -Ex5 expression vector. Aromatase activity of the c655G>A mutant was predicted by three dimensional (3D) protein modelling studies and analysed in transiently transfected Y1 cells. Exon 5 might be predicted as a poorly defined exon suggesting a susceptibility to both splicing mutations and physiological alternative splicing events. Therefore, expression of the -Ex5 mRNA was also assessed as a possibly naturally occurring alternative splicing transcript in normal human steroidogenic tissues. PATIENTS: An aromatase deficient girl was born with ambiguous genitalia. Elevated serum LH, FSH and androgens, as well as cystic ovaries, were found during prepuberty. At the age of 8.4 years, spontaneous breast development and a 194.6 pmol/l serum oestradiol level was observed. RESULTS: The -Ex5 mRNA was found in lymphocytes of the P450aro deficient girl and her father, who was a carrier of the mutation. Mutant minigene expression resulted in complete exon 5 skipping. As expected from 3D protein modelling, -Ex5 cDNA expression in Y1 cells resulted in loss of P450aro activity. In addition, the -Ex5 mRNA was present in placenta, prepubertal testis and adrenal tissues. CONCLUSIONS: Alternative splicing of exon 5 of the CYP19 gene occurs in the wild type (WT) as well as in the c655G>A mutant. We speculate that for the WT it might function as a regulatory mechanism for aromatization, whereas for the mutant a relative prevalence of the shorter over the full-length protein might explain the phenotype of partial aromatase deficiency.

Primary perivascular epithelioid cell tumor of the liver not related to hepatic ligaments: hepatic PEComa as an emerging entity

Primary perivascular epithelioid cell tumor (PEComa) of the liver is a very rare example of an emerging family of hepatic PEC tumors. Only few cases have been described so far. We report the case of a large but benign hepatic PEComa in a 53-year-old man without signs of tuberous sclerosis. In contrast to recently described PEC-derived liver tumors in children and young adults, this neoplasm was not related to the hepatic ligaments but had developed deeply within the liver substance. The neoplastic cells displayed the complete phenotype typical for PEComas, i.e. reactivity for several melanoma markers and for smooth muscle actin. The unique relationship of myoid tumor cells to the adventitia of blood vessels prompted us, in comparison with published findings obtained with angiomyolipomas, to comment on the possible origin of the still enigmatic perivascular epithelioid cells.

Neurophysiology and neuroanatomy of reflexive and volitional saccades as revealed by lesion studies with neurological patients and transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS)

This review discusses the neurophysiology and neuroanatomy of the cortical control of reflexive and volitional saccades in humans. The main focus is on classical lesion studies and studies using the interference method of transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS). To understand the behavioural function of a region, it is essential to assess oculomotor deficits after a focal lesion using a variety of oculomotor paradigms, and to study the oculomotor consequences of the lesion in the chronic phase. Saccades are controlled by different cortical regions, which could be partially specialised in the triggering of a specific type of saccade. The division of saccades into reflexive visually guided saccades and intentional or volitional saccades corresponds to distinct regions of the neuronal network, which are involved in the control of such saccades. TMS allows to specifically interfere with the functioning of a region within an intact oculomotor network. TMS provides advantages in terms of temporal resolution, allowing to interfere with brain functioning in the order of milliseconds, thereby allowing to define the time course of saccade planning and execution. In the first part of the paper, we present an overview of the cortical structures important for saccade control, and discuss the pro's and con's of the different methodological approaches to study the cortical oculomotor network. In the second part, the functional network involved in reflexive and volitional saccades is presented. Finally, studies concerning recovery mechanisms after a lesion of the oculomotor cortex are discussed.

Compliance of the L5-S1 spinal unit: a comparative study between an unconstrained and a partially constrained system

A comparison between an unconstrained and a partially constrained system for in vitro biomechanical testing of the L5-S1 spinal unit was conducted. The objective was to compare the compliance and the coupling of the L5-S1 unit measured with an unconstrained and a partially constrained test for the three major physiological motions of the human spine. Very few studies have compared unconstrained and partially constrained testing systems using the same cadaveric functional spinal units (FSUs). Seven human L5-S1 units were therefore tested on both a pneumatic, unconstrained, and a servohydraulic, partially constrained system. Each FSU was tested along three motions: flexion-extension (FE), lateral bending (LB) and axial rotation (AR). The obtained kinematics on both systems is not equivalent, except for the FE case, where both motions are similar. The directions of coupled motions were similar for both tests, but their magnitudes were smaller in the partially constrained configuration. The use of a partially constrained system to characterize LB and AR of the lumbosacral FSU decreased significantly the measured stiffness of the segment. The unconstrained system is today's "gold standard" for the characterization of FSUs. The selected partially constrained method seems also to be an appropriate way to characterize FSUs for specific applications. Care should be taken using the latter method when the coupled motions are important.

Mean age of carbon in fine roots from temperate forests and grasslands with different management

Fine roots are the most dynamic portion of a plant's root system and a major source of soil organic matter. By altering plant species diversity and composition, soil conditions and nutrient availability, and consequently belowground allocation and dynamics of root carbon (C) inputs, land-use and management changes may influence organic C storage in terrestrial ecosystems. In three German regions, we measured fine root radiocarbon (14C) content to estimate the mean time since C in root tissues was fixed from the atmosphere in 54 grassland and forest plots with different management and soil conditions. Although root biomass was on average greater in grasslands 5.1 ± 0.8 g (mean ± SE, n = 27) than in forests 3.1 ± 0.5 g (n = 27) (p < 0.05), the mean age of C in fine roots in forests averaged 11.3 ± 1.8 yr and was older and more variable compared to grasslands 1.7 ± 0.4 yr (p < 0.001). We further found that management affects the mean age of fine root C in temperate grasslands mediated by changes in plant species diversity and composition. Fine root mean C age is positively correlated with plant diversity (r = 0.65) and with the number of perennial species (r = 0.77). Fine root mean C age in grasslands was also affected by study region with averages of 0.7 ± 0.1 yr (n = 9) on mostly organic soils in northern Germany and of 1.8 ± 0.3 yr (n = 9) and 2.6 ± 0.3 (n = 9) in central and southern Germany (p < 0.05). This was probably due to differences in soil nutrient contents and soil moisture conditions between study regions, which affected plant species diversity and the presence of perennial species. Our results indicate more long-lived roots or internal redistribution of C in perennial species and suggest linkages between fine root C age and management in grasslands. These findings improve our ability to predict and model belowground C fluxes across broader spatial scales.

Electrodes for Long-Term Esophageal Electrocardiography

The emerging application of long-term and high-quality ECG recording requires alternative electrodes to improve the signal quality and recording capability of surface skin electrodes. The esophageal ECG has the potential to overcome these limitations but necessitates novel recorder and lead designs. The electrode material is of particular interest, since the material has to ensure conflicting requirements like excellent biopotential recording properties and inertness. To this end, novel electrode materials like PEDOT and silver-PDMS as well as established electrode materials such as stainless steel, platinum, gold, iridium oxide, titanium nitride, and glassy carbon were investigated by long-term electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and model-based signal analysis using the derived in vitro interfacial properties in conjunction with a dedicated ECG amplifier. The results of this novel approach show that titanium nitride and iridium oxide featuring microstructured surfaces did not degrade when exposed to artificial acidic saliva. These materials provide low electrode potential drifts and insignificant signal distortion superior to surface skin electrodes making them compatible with accepted standards for ambulatory ECG. They are superior to the noble and polarizable metals such as platinum, silver, and gold that induced more signal distortions and are superior to esophageal stainless steel electrodes that corrode in artificial saliva. The study provides rigorous criteria for the selection of electrode materials for prolonged ECG recording by combining long-term in vitro electrode material properties with ECG signal quality assessment.

The Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity over the Past 106–109 Years as Recorded by Cosmogenic Nuclides in Meteorites and Terrestrial Samples

Concentrations of stable and radioactive nuclides produced by cosmic ray particles in meteorites allow us to track the long term average of the primary flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR). During the past ∼10 Ma, the average GCR flux remained constant over timescales of hundreds of thousands to millions of years, and, if corrected for known variations in solar modulation, also during the past several years to hundreds of years. Because the cosmic ray concentrations in meteorites represent integral signals, it is difficult to assess the limits of uncertainty of this statement, but they are larger than the often quoted analytical and model uncertainties of some 30%. Time series of concentrations of the radionuclide 10Be in terrestrial samples strengthen the conclusions drawn from meteorite studies, indicating that the GCR intensity on a ∼0.5 million year scale has remained constant within some ±10% during the past ∼10 million years. The very long-lived radioactive nuclide 40K allows to assess the GCR flux over about the past one billion years. The flux over the past few million years has been the same as the longer-term average in the past 0.5–1 billion years within a factor of ∼1.5. However, newer data do not confirm a long-held belief that the flux in the past few million years has been higher by some 30–50% than the very long term average. Neither does our analysis confirm a hypothesis that the iron meteorite data indicate a ∼150 million year periodicity in the cosmic ray flux, possibly related to variations in the long-term terrestrial climate.

Understanding the performance of the FLake model over two African Great Lakes

The ability of the one-dimensional lake model FLake to represent the mixolimnion temperatures for tropical conditions was tested for three locations in East Africa: Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika's northern and southern basins. Meteorological observations from surrounding automatic weather stations were corrected and used to drive FLake, whereas a comprehensive set of water temperature profiles served to evaluate the model at each site. Careful forcing data correction and model configuration made it possible to reproduce the observed mixed layer seasonality at Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika (northern and southern basins), with correct representation of both the mixed layer depth and water temperatures. At Lake Kivu, mixolimnion temperatures predicted by FLake were found to be sensitive both to minimal variations in the external parameters and to small changes in the meteorological driving data, in particular wind velocity. In each case, small modifications may lead to a regime switch, from the correctly represented seasonal mixed layer deepening to either completely mixed or permanently stratified conditions from similar to 10 m downwards. In contrast, model temperatures were found to be robust close to the surface, with acceptable predictions of near-surface water temperatures even when the seasonal mixing regime is not reproduced. FLake can thus be a suitable tool to parameterise tropical lake water surface temperatures within atmospheric prediction models. Finally, FLake was used to attribute the seasonal mixing cycle at Lake Kivu to variations in the near-surface meteorological conditions. It was found that the annual mixing down to 60m during the main dry season is primarily due to enhanced lake evaporation and secondarily to the decreased incoming long wave radiation, both causing a significant heat loss from the lake surface and associated mixolimnion cooling.

A Case for CDN-as-a-Service in the Cloud: A Mobile Cloud Networking Argument

Content Distribution Networks are mandatory components of modern web architectures, with plenty of vendors offering their services. Despite its maturity, new paradigms and architecture models are still being developed in this area. Cloud Computing, on the other hand, is a more recent concept which has expanded extremely quickly, with new services being regularly added to cloud management software suites such as OpenStack. The main contribution of this paper is the architecture and the development of an open source CDN that can be provisioned in an on-demand, pay-as-you-go model thereby enabling the CDN as a Service paradigm. We describe our experience with integration of CDNaaS framework in a cloud environment, as a service for enterprise users. We emphasize the flexibility and elasticity of such a model, with each CDN instance being delivered on-demand and associated to personalized caching policies as well as an optimized choice of Points of Presence based on exact requirements of an enterprise customer. Our development is based on the framework developed in the Mobile Cloud Networking EU FP7 project, which offers its enterprise users a common framework to instantiate and control services. CDNaaS is one of the core support components in this project as is tasked to deliver different type of multimedia content to several thousands of users geographically distributed. It integrates seamlessly in the MCN service life-cycle and as such enjoys all benefits of a common design environment, allowing for an improved interoperability with the rest of the services within the MCN ecosystem.