50 resultados para Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models


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By switching the level of analysis and aggregating data from the micro-level of individual cases to the macro-level, quantitative data can be analysed within a more case-based approach. This paper presents such an approach in two steps: In a first step, it discusses the combination of Social Network Analysis (SNA) and Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) in a sequential mixed-methods research design. In such a design, quantitative social network data on individual cases and their relations at the micro-level are used to describe the structure of the network that these cases constitute at the macro-level. Different network structures can then be compared by QCA. This strategy allows adding an element of potential causal explanation to SNA, while SNA-indicators allow for a systematic description of the cases to be compared by QCA. Because mixing methods can be a promising, but also a risky endeavour, the methodological part also discusses the possibility that underlying assumptions of both methods could clash. In a second step, the research design presented beforehand is applied to an empirical study of policy network structures in Swiss politics. Through a comparison of 11 policy networks, causal paths that lead to a conflictual or consensual policy network structure are identified and discussed. The analysis reveals that different theoretical factors matter and that multiple conjunctural causation is at work. Based on both the methodological discussion and the empirical application, it appears that a combination of SNA and QCA can represent a helpful methodological design for social science research and a possibility of using quantitative data with a more case-based approach.

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This paper summarises the discussions which took place at the Workshop on Methodology in Erosion Research in Zürich, 2010, and aims, where possible, to offer guidance for the development and application of both in vitro and in situ models for erosion research. The prospects for clinical trials are also discussed. All models in erosion research require a number of choices regarding experimental conditions, study design and measurement techniques, and these general aspects are discussed first. Among in vitro models, simple (single- or multiple-exposure) models can be used for screening products regarding their erosive potential, while more elaborate pH cycling models can be used to simulate erosion in vivo. However, in vitro models provide limited information on intra-oral erosion. In situ models allow the effect of an erosive challenge to be evaluated under intra-oral conditions and are currently the method of choice for short-term testing of low-erosive products or preventive therapeutic products. In the future, clinical trials will allow longer-term testing. Possible methodologies for such trials are discussed.

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In many animals, males congregate in leks that females visit for the sole purpose of mating. We observed male and female behavior on 3 different-sized leks of the bower-building cichlid fish Nyassachromis cf. microcephalus to test predictions of 3 prominent lek models: the "hotshot," "hot spot," and "female preference" models. In this system, we were able to refine these predictions by distinguishing between indirect mate choice, by which females restrict their set of potential mates in the absence of individual male assessment, and direct mate choice, by which females assess males and their territories through dyadic behavioral interactions. On no lek were males holding central territories favored by indirect or direct mate choice, contrary to the prediction of the hotshot model that leks form because inferior males establish territories surrounding hotshot males preferred by females. Average female encounter rate of males increased with lek size, a pattern typically interpreted as evidence that leks form through female preference for lekking males, rather than because males congregate in hot spots of high female density. Female propensity to engage in premating behavior once courted did not increase with lek size, suggesting female preference for males on larger leks operated through indirect choice rather than direct choice based on individual assessment. The frequency of male-male competitive interactions increased with lek size, whereas their foraging rate decreased, implying a cost to males maintaining territories on larger leks. Together these data most strongly support the female preference model, where females may benefit through indirect mate choice for males able to meet the competitive cost of occupying larger leks.

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Background: The CAMbrella coordination action was funded within the Framework Programme 7. Its aim is to provide a research roadmap for clinical and epidemiological research for complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) that is appropriate for the health needs of European citizens and acceptable to their national research institutes and healthcare providers in both public and private sectors. One major issue in the European research agenda is the demographic change and its impact on health care. Our vision for 2020 is that there is an evidence base that enables European citizens to make informed decisions about CAM, both positive and negative. This roadmap proposes a strategic research agenda for the field of CAM designed to address future European health care challenges. This roadmap is based on the results of CAMbrella’s several work packages, literature reviews and expert discussions including a consensus meeting. Methods: We first conducted a systematic literature review on key issues in clinical and epidemiological research in CAM to identify the general concepts, methods and the strengths and weaknesses of current CAM research. These findings were discussed in a workshop (Castellaro, Italy, September 7–9th 2011) with international CAM experts and strategic and methodological recommendations were defined in order to improve the rigor and relevance of CAM research. These recommendations provide the basis for the research roadmap, which was subsequently discussed in a consensus conference (Järna, Sweden, May 9–11th 2012) with all CAMbrella members and the CAMbrella advisory board. The roadmap was revised after this discussion in CAMbrella Work Package (WP) 7 and finally approved by CAMbrella’s scientific steering committee on September 26th 2012. Results: Our main findings show that CAM is very heterogenous in terms of definitions and legal regulations between the European countries. In addition, citizens’ needs and attitudes towards CAM as well as the use and provision of CAM differ significantly between countries. In terms of research methodology, there was consensus that CAM researchers should make use of all the commonly accepted scientific research methods and employ those with utmost diligence combined in a mixed methods framework. Conclusions: We propose 6 core areas of research that should be investigated to achieve a robust knowledge base and to allow stakeholders to make informed decisions. These are: Research into the prevalence of CAM in Europe: Reviews show that we do not know enough about the circumstances in which CAM is used by Europeans. To enable a common European strategic approach, a clear picture of current use is of the utmost importance. Research into differences regarding citizens’ attitudes and needs towards CAM: Citizens are the driver for CAM utilization. Their needs and views on CAM are a key priority, and their interests must be investigated and addressed in future CAM research. Research into safety of CAM: Safety is a key issue for European citizens. CAM is considered safe, but reliable data is scarce although urgently needed in order to assess the risk and cost-benefit ratio of CAM. Research into the comparative effectiveness of CAM: Everybody needs to know in what situation CAM is a reasonable choice. Therefore, we recommend a clear emphasis on concurrent evaluation of the overall effectiveness of CAM as an additional or alternative treatment strategy in real-world settings. Research into effects of context and meaning: The impact of effects of context and meaning on the outcome of CAM treatments must be investigated; it is likely that they are significant. Research into different models of CAM health care integration: There are different models of CAM being integrated into conventional medicine throughout Europe, each with their respective strengths and limitations. These models should be described and concurrently evaluated; innovative models of CAM provision in health care systems should be one focus for CAM research. We also propose a methodological framework for CAM research. We consider that a framework of mixed methodological approaches is likely to yield the most useful information. In this model, all available research strategies including comparative effectiveness research utilising quantitative and qualitative methods should be considered to enable us to secure the greatest density of knowledge possible. Stakeholders, such as citizens, patients and providers, should be involved in every stage of developing the specific and relevant research questions, study design and the assurance of real-world relevance for the research. Furthermore, structural and sufficient financial support for research into CAM is needed to strengthen CAM research capacity if we wish to understand why it remains so popular within the EU. In order to consider employing CAM as part of the solution to the health care, health creation and self-care challenges we face by 2020, it is vital to obtain a robust picture of CAM use and reliable information about its cost, safety and effectiveness in real-world settings. We need to consider the availability, accessibility and affordability of CAM. We need to engage in research excellence and utilise comparative effectiveness approaches and mixed methods to obtain this data. Our recommendations are both strategic and methodological. They are presented for the consideration of researchers and funders while being designed to answer the important and implicit questions posed by EU citizens currently using CAM in apparently increasing numbers. We propose that the EU actively supports an EUwide strategic approach that facilitates the development of CAM research. This could be achieved in the first instance through funding a European CAM coordinating research office dedicated to foster systematic communication between EU governments, public, charitable and industry funders as well as researchers, citizens and other stakeholders. The aim of this office would be to coordinate research strategy developments and research funding opportunities, as well as to document and disseminate international research activities in this field. With the aim to develop sustainability as second step, a European Centre for CAM should be established that takes over the monitoring and further development of a coordinated research strategy for CAM, as well as it should have funds that can be awarded to foster high quality and robust independent research with a focus on citizens health needs and pan-European collaboration. We wish to establish a solid funding for CAM research to adequately inform health care and health creation decision-making throughout the EU. This centre would ensure that our vision of a common, strategic and scientifically rigorous approach to CAM research becomes our legacy and Europe’s reality. We are confident that our recommendations will serve these essential goals for EU citizens.

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Vascular surgical training currently has to cope with various challenges, including restrictions on work hours, significant reduction of open surgical training cases in many countries, an increasing diversity of open and endovascular procedures, and distinct expectations by trainees. Even more important, patients and the public no longer accept a "learning by doing" training philosophy that leaves the learning curve on the patient's side. The Vascular International (VI) Foundation and School aims to overcome these obstacles by training conventional vascular and endovascular techniques before they are applied on patients. To achieve largely realistic training conditions, lifelike pulsatile models with exchangeable synthetic arterial inlays were created to practice carotid endarterectomy and patch plasty, open abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery, and peripheral bypass surgery, as well as for endovascular procedures, including endovascular aneurysm repair, thoracic endovascular aortic repair, peripheral balloon dilatation, and stenting. All models are equipped with a small pressure pump inside to create pulsatile flow conditions with variable peak pressures of ~90 mm Hg. The VI course schedule consists of a series of 2-hour modules teaching different open or endovascular procedures step-by-step in a standardized fashion. Trainees practice in pairs with continuous supervision and intensive advice provided by highly experienced vascular surgical trainers (trainer-to-trainee ratio is 1:4). Several evaluations of these courses show that tutor-assisted training on lifelike models in an educational-centered and motivated environment is associated with a significant increase of general and specific vascular surgical technical competence within a short period of time. Future studies should evaluate whether these benefits positively influence the future learning curve of vascular surgical trainees and clarify to what extent sophisticated models are useful to assess the level of technical skills of vascular surgical residents at national or international board examinations. This article gives an overview of our experiences of >20 years of practical training of beginners and advanced vascular surgeons using lifelike pulsatile vascular surgical training models.

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BACKGROUND: Many studies showing effects of traffic-related air pollution on health rely on self-reported exposure, which may be inaccurate. We estimated the association between self-reported exposure to road traffic and respiratory symptoms in preschool children, and investigated whether the effect could have been caused by reporting bias. METHODS: In a random sample of 8700 preschool children in Leicestershire, UK, exposure to road traffic and respiratory symptoms were assessed by a postal questionnaire (response rate 80%). The association between traffic exposure and respiratory outcomes was assessed using unconditional logistic regression and conditional regression models (matching by postcode). RESULTS: Prevalence odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for self-reported road traffic exposure, comparing the categories 'moderate' and 'dense', respectively, with 'little or no' were for current wheezing: 1.26 (1.13-1.42) and 1.30 (1.09-1.55); chronic rhinitis: 1.18 (1.05-1.31) and 1.31 (1.11-1.56); night cough: 1.17 (1.04-1.32) and 1.36 (1.14-1.62); and bronchodilator use: 1.20 (1.04-1.38) and 1.18 (0.95-1.46). Matched analysis only comparing symptomatic and asymptomatic children living at the same postcode (thus exposed to similar road traffic) showed similar ORs, suggesting that parents of children with respiratory symptoms reported more road traffic than parents of asymptomatic children. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that reporting bias could explain some or even all the association between reported exposure to road traffic and disease. Over-reporting of exposure by only 10% of parents of symptomatic children would be sufficient to produce the effect sizes shown in this study. Future research should be based only on objective measurements of traffic exposure.

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Reproductive skew theory seeks to integrate social and ecological factors thought to influence the division of reproduction among group-living animals. However, most reproductive skew models only examine interactions between individuals of the same sex. Here, we suggest that females can influence group stability and conflict among males by modifying their clutch size and may do so if they benefit from the presence of subordinate male helpers or from reduced conflict. We develop 3 models, based on concessions-based, restraint, and tug-of-war models, in which female clutch size is variable and ask when females will increase their clutch size above that which would be optimal in the absence of male-male conflict. In concessions-based and restraint models, females should increase clutch size above their optima if the benefits of staying for subordinate males are relatively low. Relatedness between males has no effect on clutch size. When females do increase clutch size, the division of reproduction between males is not influenced by relatedness and does not differ between restraint and concessions-based models. Both of these predictions are in sharp contrast to previous models. In tug-of-war models, clutch size is strongly influenced by relatedness between males, with the largest clutches, but the fewest surviving offspring, produced when males are unrelated. These 3 models demonstrate the importance of considering third-party interests in the decisions of group-living organisms.

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BACKGROUND: Chronic pain is an important outcome variable after inguinal hernia repair that is generally not assessed by objective methods. The aim of this study was to objectively investigate chronic pain and hypoesthesia after inguinal hernia repair using three types of operation: open suture, open mesh, and laparoscopic. METHODS: A total of 96 patients were included in the study with a median follow-up of 4.7 years. Open suture repair was performed in 40 patients (group A), open mesh repair in 20 patients (group B), and laparoscopic repair in 36 patients (group C). Hypoesthesia and pain were assessed using von Frey monofilaments. Quality of life was investigated with Short Form 36. RESULTS: Pain occurring at least once a week was found in 7 (17.5%) patients of group A, in 5 (25%) patients of group B, and in 6 (16.6%) patients of group C. Area and intensity of hyposensibility were increased significantly after open nonmesh and mesh repair compared to those after laparoscopy (p = 0.01). Hyposensibility in patients who had laparoscopic hernia repair was significantly associated with postoperative pain (p = 0.03). Type of postoperative pain was somatic in 19 (61%), neuropathic in 9 (29%), and visceral in 3 (10%) patients without significant differences between the three groups. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of hypoesthesia in patients who had laparoscopic hernia repair is significantly lower than in those who had open hernia repair. Hypoesthesia after laparoscopic but not after open repair is significantly associated with postoperative pain. Von Frey monofilaments are important tools for the assessment of inguinal hypoesthesia and pain in patients who had inguinal hernia repair allowing quantitative and qualitative comparison between various surgical techniques.

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BACKGROUND: This empirical study analyzes the current status of Cochrane Reviews (CRs) and their strength of recommendation for evidence-based decision making in the field of general surgery. METHODS: Systematic literature search of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and the Cochrane Collaboration's homepage to identify available CRs on surgical topics. Quantitative and qualitative characteristics, utilization, and formulated treatment recommendations were evaluated by 2 independent reviewers. Association of review characteristics with treatment recommendation was analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS: Ninety-three CRs, including 1,403 primary studies and 246,473 patients, were identified. Mean number of included primary studies per CR was 15.1 (standard deviation [SD] 14.5) including 2,650 (SD 3,340) study patients. Two and a half (SD 8.3) nonrandomized trials were included per analyzed CR. Seventy-two (77%) CRs were published or updated in 2005 or later. Explicit treatment recommendations were given in 45 (48%). Presence of a treatment recommendation was associated with the number of included primary studies and the proportion of randomized studies. Utilization of surgical CRs remained low and showed large inter-country differences. The most surgical CRs were accessed in UK, USA, and Australia, followed by several Western and Eastern European countries. CONCLUSION: Only a minority of available CRs address surgical questions and their current usage is low. Instead of unsystematically increasing the number of surgical CRs it would be far more efficient to focus the review process on relevant surgical questions. Prioritization of CRs needs valid methods which should be developed by the scientific surgical community.

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The African great lakes are of utmost importance for the local economy (fishing), as well as being essential to the survival of the local people. During the past decades, these lakes experienced fast changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, and their future evolution is a major concern. In this study, for the first time a set of one-dimensional lake models are evaluated for Lake Kivu (2.28°S; 28.98°E), East Africa. The unique limnology of this meromictic lake, with the importance of salinity and subsurface springs in a tropical high-altitude climate, presents a worthy challenge to the seven models involved in the Lake Model Intercomparison Project (LakeMIP). Meteorological observations from two automatic weather stations are used to drive the models, whereas a unique dataset, containing over 150 temperature profiles recorded since 2002, is used to assess the model’s performance. Simulations are performed over the freshwater layer only (60 m) and over the average lake depth (240 m), since salinity increases with depth below 60 m in Lake Kivu and some lake models do not account for the influence of salinity upon lake stratification. All models are able to reproduce the mixing seasonality in Lake Kivu, as well as the magnitude and seasonal cycle of the lake enthalpy change. Differences between the models can be ascribed to variations in the treatment of the radiative forcing and the computation of the turbulent heat fluxes. Fluctuations in wind velocity and solar radiation explain inter-annual variability of observed water column temperatures. The good agreement between the deep simulations and the observed meromictic stratification also shows that a subset of models is able to account for the salinity- and geothermal-induced effects upon deep-water stratification. Finally, based on the strengths and weaknesses discerned in this study, an informed choice of a one-dimensional lake model for a given research purpose becomes possible.

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Objective: To evaluate a new triaxial accelerometer device for prediction of energy expenditure, measured as VO2/kg, in obese adults and normal-weight controls during activities of daily life. Subjects and methods: Thirty-seven obese adults (Body Mass Index (BMI) 37±5.4) and seventeen controls (BMI 23±1.8) performed eight activities for 5 to 8 minutes while wearing a triaxial accelerometer on the right thigh. Simultaneously, VO2 and VCO2 were measured using a portable metabolic system. The relationship between accelerometer counts (AC) and VO2/kg was analysed using spline regression and linear mixed-effects models. Results: For all activities, VO2/kg was significantly lower in obese participants than in normalweight controls. A linear relationship between AC and VO2/kg existed only within accelerometer values from 0 to 300 counts/min, with an increase of 3.7 (95%-confidence interval (CI) 3.4 - 4.1) and 3.9 ml/min (95%-CI 3.4 - 4.3) per increase of 100 counts/min in obese and normal-weight adults, respectively. Linear modelling of the whole range yields wide prediction intervals for VO2/kg of ± 6.3 and ±7.3 ml/min in both groups. Conclusion: In obese and normal-weight adults, the use of AC for predicting energy expenditure, defined as VO2/kg, from a broad range of physical activities, characterized by varying intensities and types of muscle work, is limited.

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The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.

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Groundwater age is a key aspect of production well vulnerability. Public drinking water supply wells typically have long screens and are expected to produce a mixture of groundwater ages. The groundwater age distributions of seven production wells of the Holten well field (Netherlands) were estimated from tritium-helium (3H/3He), krypton-85 (85Kr), and argon-39 (39Ar), using a new application of a discrete age distribution model and existing mathematical models, by minimizing the uncertainty-weighted squared differences of modeled and measured tracer concentrations. The observed tracer concentrations fitted well to a 4-bin discrete age distribution model or a dispersion model with a fraction of old groundwater. Our results show that more than 75 of the water pumped by four shallow production wells has a groundwater age of less than 20 years and these wells are very vulnerable to recent surface contamination. More than 50 of the water pumped by three deep production wells is older than 60 years. 3H/3He samples from short screened monitoring wells surrounding the well field constrained the age stratification in the aquifer. The discrepancy between the age stratification with depth and the groundwater age distribution of the production wells showed that the well field preferentially pumps from the shallow part of the aquifer. The discrete groundwater age distribution model appears to be a suitable approach in settings where the shape of the age distribution cannot be assumed to follow a simple mathematical model, such as a production well field where wells compete for capture area.

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Research Topic/Aim: Horizontal gender inequalities appear to be rather stable, with girls more often choosing ‘female' service professions, and boys choosing career paths related to science, technology, engineering or mathematics, since measures to bring more women into typical ‘male' jobs and more men into typical ‘female' jobs did not turn out to be sustainable. This paper focuses on gender stereotypes, namely non-egalitarian patriarchal gender-role orientations and gender associations of the school subjects German and mathematics. Dealing with and abolishing such gender stereotypes may be key strategy to reach sustainability regarding more equal vocational choices. Thus, gender stereotypes will be theorised and empirically analysed as a major predictor of gender-typical vocational perspectives considering interest in these school subjects as a mediating factor. Furthermore, we focus on structural patriarchy as a root of gender-role orientations, and teacher gender regarding its impact on gendered images of subjects. Theoretical and methodology framework: Our analyses of gender segregation in vocational aspirations and vocational choice center on Gottfredson's (2002; Gottfredson and Becker, 1981) Theory of Circumscription, Compromise and Self-Creation. One of the main assumptions of this theory is that people associate jobs with particular sexes and those jobs that do not fit particular gender roles are not considered. Empirical analyses are based on survey data of eighth-graders in the Swiss canton of Bern (N = 672). Structural Equation Models (SEM) for male and female students are estimated. Conclusions/Findings: Results reveal different patterns for boys and girls; for boys, gender-typical (male) vocational perspective could be explained via gender role orientations, interest in mathematics and gender associations of the school subjects, for girls, the factors under consideration could be empirically linked to ‘atypical vocational perspective'. Relevance to Nordic educational research: The study focuses on gender relations in society and how they are reproduced. Gender segregation in vocational choice and at the labour market is a universal issue - affecting both egalitarian and non-egalitarian gender regimes in similar ways. Although in general Northern countries appear to be more equal regarding gender inequality, gender segregation is rather persistent (Jarman, Blackburn and Brooks, 2012) and therefore remains a relevant topic.

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In clinical practice, traditional X-ray radiography is widely used, and knowledge of landmarks and contours in anteroposterior (AP) pelvis X-rays is invaluable for computer aided diagnosis, hip surgery planning and image-guided interventions. This paper presents a fully automatic approach for landmark detection and shape segmentation of both pelvis and femur in conventional AP X-ray images. Our approach is based on the framework of landmark detection via Random Forest (RF) regression and shape regularization via hierarchical sparse shape composition. We propose a visual feature FL-HoG (Flexible- Level Histogram of Oriented Gradients) and a feature selection algorithm based on trace radio optimization to improve the robustness and the efficacy of RF-based landmark detection. The landmark detection result is then used in a hierarchical sparse shape composition framework for shape regularization. Finally, the extracted shape contour is fine-tuned by a post-processing step based on low level image features. The experimental results demonstrate that our feature selection algorithm reduces the feature dimension in a factor of 40 and improves both training and test efficiency. Further experiments conducted on 436 clinical AP pelvis X-rays show that our approach achieves an average point-to-curve error around 1.2 mm for femur and 1.9 mm for pelvis.