Neighbourhood Diversity and Social Trust: An Empirical Analysis of Interethnic Contact and Group-specific Effects

To date, neighbourhood studies on ethnic diversity and social trust have revealed inconclusive findings. In this paper, three innovations are proposed in order to systemise the knowledge about neighbourhood ethnic diversity and the development of social trust. First, it is proposed to use a valid trust measure that is sensitive to the local neighbourhood context. Second, the paper argues for a conception of organically evolved neighbourhoods, rather than using local administrative units as readily available proxies for neighbourhood divisions. Thirdly, referring to intergroup contact theory and group-specific effects of diversity, the paper challenges the notion that ethnic diversity has overwhelmingly negative effects on social trust.

Representation via Probabilities: Models of Probabilistic Modeling

How do probabilistic models represent their targets and how do they allow us to learn about them? The answer to this question depends on a number of details, in particular on the meaning of the probabilities involved. To classify the options, a minimalist conception of representation (Su\'arez 2004) is adopted: Modelers devise substitutes (``sources'') of their targets and investigate them to infer something about the target. Probabilistic models allow us to infer probabilities about the target from probabilities about the source. This leads to a framework in which we can systematically distinguish between different models of probabilistic modeling. I develop a fully Bayesian view of probabilistic modeling, but I argue that, as an alternative, Bayesian degrees of belief about the target may be derived from ontic probabilities about the source. Remarkably, some accounts of ontic probabilities can avoid problems if they are supposed to apply to sources only.

Integration through Land Improvment – Internal Colonization in Switzerland During the First Part of the 20th Century

Internal colonization in Switzerland is often seen in connection with the battle for cultivation in the Second World War, but the history of internal colonization in Switzerland is more complex. The food crisis in the First World War formed the horizon of experience for various actors from industry, consumer protection, the urban population and agriculture to start considering practical strategies for managing agricultural production. In this way, traditional spaces, such as rural and urban areas and economic roles, such as food producer, consumer and trader, overlapped and were newly conceived to some extent: people started thinking about utopias and how a modern society could be designed to be harmonious and resistant to crisis. The aim of this article is to trace some of the key points in this process for the interwar years in neutral Switzerland. In the process, the focus must be on the context of people’s mentalities in the past, although the relationships between the actors of internal colonization and the state also need to be considered. Internal colonization in Switzerland in the twentieth century can be understood as an open process. In principle, the project was driven by private actors, but in times of crisis, the project was claimed by the state as a possible tool for social and economic intervention. In addition, as a result of the planned dissolution of urban and rural spaces, it will be shown that modern societies in the interwar period were on an existential search to overcome the problems of the modern age. Internal colonization can therefore be seen as an attempt to find a third way between a world characterized by an agrarian society and a modern industrial nation.

Incidence of and risk factors for severe hypoglycaemia in treated type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in the UK - a nested case-control analysis

AIMS To assess incidence rates (IRs) of and identify risk factors for incident severe hypoglycaemia in patients with type 2 diabetes newly treated with antidiabetic drugs. METHODS Using the UK-based General Practice Research Database, we performed a retrospective cohort study between 1994 and 2011 and a nested case-control analysis. Ten controls from the population at risk were matched to each case with a recorded severe hypoglycaemia during follow-up on general practice, years of history in the database and calendar time. Using multivariate conditional logistic regression analyses, we adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS Of 130,761 patients with newly treated type 2 diabetes (mean age 61.7 ± 13.0 years), 690 (0.5%) had an incident episode of severe hypoglycaemia recorded [estimated IR 11.97 (95% confidence interval, CI, 11.11-12.90) per 10,000 person-years (PYs)]. The IR was markedly higher in insulin users [49.64 (95% CI, 44.08-55.89) per 10,000 PYs] than in patients not using insulin [8.03 (95% CI, 7.30-8.84) per 10,000 PYs]. Based on results of the nested case-control analysis increasing age [≥ 75 vs. 20-59 years; adjusted odds ratio (OR), 2.27; 95% CI, 1.65-3.12], cognitive impairment/dementia (adjusted OR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.37-2.91), renal failure (adjusted OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.04-1.71), current use of sulphonylureas (adjusted OR, 4.45; 95% CI, 3.53-5.60) and current insulin use (adjusted OR, 11.83; 95% CI, 9.00-15.54) were all associated with an increased risk of severe hypoglycaemia. CONCLUSIONS Severe hypoglycaemia was recorded in 12 cases per 10,000 PYs. Risk factors for severe hypoglycaemia included increasing age, renal failure, cognitive impairment/dementia, and current use of insulin or sulphonylureas.

The Little Ice Age in Scientific Perspective: Cold Spells and Caveats

Contrary to the position taken by Kelly and Ó Gráda, a rich body of regional- to large-scale temperature reconstructions that span from the last millennium to almost the entire Holocene confirms the existence of several temperature depressions that occurred at different intensities and spatial ranges between c. 1350 and 1900, thus supporting the conception of a Little Ice Age. Nonetheless, the genuine uncertainties that continue to surround paleoclimatic study suggest that methodologies and findings are subject to further refinement.

Famine responses in the world food crisis 1972–5 and the World Food Conference of 1974

In the early 1970s, there was scarcity in the world grain market, soaring prices and famines in several countries of Asia and Africa. The commercial grain trade was expanded at the expense of food aid. After a brief look at policies addressing the situation in terms of modernised methods of agricultural production for small producers, the article sketches how such policies also affected relief efforts, from the low availability for food aid, the provision of food that was not useful and late deliveries through efforts to tie food aid to local changes in agricultural production and settlement patterns. In part, food aid thus reinforced processes of social differentiation that had contributed to causing the famines in the first place.