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BACKGROUND: New equipment and techniques in winter sports, such as carving skis and snowboards, have brought up new trauma patterns into the spectrum of leisure trauma. The injuries resemble high-energy trauma known from road crashes. The aim of the present study was to assess the incidence of acute traumatic descending aortic rupture in recreational skiing-crashes. MATERIAL: Between January 1995 and December 2004, 22 patients were admitted to our hospital for aortic rupture. Four patients had skiing crashes (18.2%). Mean age was 31 years, all patients were male. In two cases, aortic rupture was associated with fractures of the upper and lower extremities. One patient additionally had a cerebral contusion with an initial Glasgow Coma Scale score of 13. In two patients, isolated aortic rupture was diagnosed. RESULTS: Two patients were treated by graft interposition, and one by endograft. One patient arrived under mechanical resuscitation without blood pressure. He died at admission. He had been observed for 5 hours in another hospital, complaining of severe intrascapular back pain, before transport to our trauma unit for unknown bleeding. In the other three cases, treatment was successful. CONCLUSION: Rescue services and paramedics should be aware of this new type of injury. Acute aortic rupture has to be considered as possible injury in high velocity skiing crashes.

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Pituitary apoplexy, diabetes insipidus, thyroid storm, myxedema coma, parathyrotoxic crisis, hypocalcemia tetany, pheochromocytoma and Addison crisis, diabetic ketoacidosis, diabetic hyperosmolar nonketotic coma, hypoglycemia and carcinoid crisis are the most important endocrine crises. Some of them are common, others very rare. All physicians nevertheless need to have at least a basic knowledge of all of them, since symptoms and signs of endocrine crises overlap with those of other severe disease states, and the failure to recognise endocrine crises as such and to begin rapidly the specific therapy can have fatal consequences.

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OBJECT: The effect of normobaric hyperoxia (fraction of inspired O2 [FIO2] concentration 100%) in the treatment of patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains controversial. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of normobaric hyperoxia on five cerebral metabolic indices, which have putative prognostic significance following TBI in humans. METHODS: At two independent neurointensive care units, the authors performed a prospective study of 52 patients with severe TBI who were treated for 24 hours with 100% FIO2, starting within 6 hours of admission. Data for these patients were compared with data for a cohort of 112 patients who were treated in the past; patients in the historical control group matched the patients in our study according to their Glasgow Coma Scale scores after resuscitation and their intracranial pressure within the first 8 hours after admission. Patients were monitored with the aid of intracerebral microdialysis and tissue O2 probes. Normobaric hyperoxia treatment resulted in a significant improvement in biochemical markers in the brain compared with the baseline measures for patients treated in our study (patients acting as their own controls) and also compared with findings from the historical control group. In the dialysate the glucose levels increased (369.02 +/- 20.1 micromol/L in the control group and 466.9 +/- 20.39 micromol/L in the 100% O2 group, p = 0.001), whereas the glutamate and lactate levels significantly decreased (p < 0.005). There were also reductions in the lactate/glucose and lactate/pyruvate ratios. Intracranial pressure in the treatment group was reduced significantly both during and after hyperoxia treatment compared with the control groups (15.03 +/- 0.8 mm Hg in the control group and 12.13 +/- 0.75 mm Hg in the 100% O2 group, p < 0.005) with no changes in cerebral perfusion pressure. Outcomes of the patients in the treatment group improved. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the study support the hypothesis that normobaric hyperoxia in patients with severe TBI improves the indices of brain oxidative metabolism. Based on these data further mechanistic studies and a prospective randomized controlled trial are warranted.

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OBJECT: Disturbed ionic and neurotransmitter homeostasis are now recognized as probably the most important mechanisms contributing to the development of secondary brain swelling after traumatic brain injury (TBI). Evidence obtained in animal models indicates that posttraumatic neuronal excitation by excitatory amino acids leads to an increase in extracellular potassium, probably due to ion channel activation. The purpose of this study was therefore to measure dialysate potassium in severely head injured patients and to correlate these results with measurements of intracranial pressure (ICP), patient outcome, and levels of dialysate glutamate and lactate, and cerebral blood flow (CBF) to determine the role of ischemia in this posttraumatic ion dysfunction. METHODS: Eighty-five patients with severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Scale Score < 8) were treated according to an intensive ICP management-focused protocol. All patients underwent intracerebral microdialyis. Dialysate potassium levels were analyzed using flame photometry, and dialysate glutamate and dialysate lactate levels were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography and an enzyme-linked amperometric method in 72 and 84 patients, respectively. Cerebral blood flow studies (stable xenon computerized tomography scanning) were performed in 59 patients. In approximately 20% of the patients, dialysate potassium values were increased (dialysate potassium > 1.8 mM) for 3 hours or more. A mean amount of dialysate potassium greater than 2 mM throughout the entire monitoring period was associated with ICP above 30 mm Hg and fatal outcome, as were progressively rising levels of dialysate potassium. The presence of dialysate potassium correlated positively with dialysate glutamate (p < 0.0001) and lactate (p < 0.0001) levels. Dialysate potassium was significantly inversely correlated with reduced CBF (p = 0.019). CONCLUSIONS: Dialysate potassium was increased after TBI in 20% of measurements. High levels of dialysate potassium were associated with increased ICP and poor outcome. The simultaneous increase in dialysate potassium, together with dialysate glutamate and lactate, supports the concept that glutamate induces ionic flux and consequently increases ICP, which the authors speculate may be due to astrocytic swelling. Reduced CBF was also significantly correlated with increased levels of dialysate potassium. This may be due to either cell swelling or altered vasoreactivity in cerebral blood vessels caused by higher levels of potassium after trauma. Additional studies in which potassium-sensitive microelectrodes are used are needed to validate these ionic events more clearly.

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Early impaired cerebral blood flow (CBF) after severe head injury (SHI) leads to poor brain tissue oxygen delivery and lactate accumulation. The purpose of this investigation was to elucidate the relationship between CBF, local dialysate lactate (lact(md)) and dialysate glucose (gluc(md)), and brain tissue oxygen levels (PtiO2) under arterial normoxia. The effect of increased brain tissue oxygenation due to high fractions of inspired oxygen (FiO2) on lact(md) and CBF was explored. A total of 47 patients with SHI were enrolled in this studies (Glasgow Coma Score [GCS] < 8). CBF was first assessed in 40 patients at one time point in the first 96 hours (27 +/- 28 hours) after SHI using stable xenon computed tomography (Xe-CT) (30% inspired xenon [FiXe] and 35% FiO2). In a second study, sequential double CBF measurements were performed in 7 patients with 35% FiO2 and 60% FiO2, respectively, with an interval of 30 minutes. In a subsequent study, 14 patients underwent normobaric hyperoxia by increasing FiO2 from 35 +/- 5% to 60% and then 100% over a period of 6 hours. This was done to test the effect of normobaric hyperoxia on lact(md) and brain gluc(md), as measured by local microdialysis. Changes in PtiO2 in response to changes in FiO2 were analyzed by calculating the oxygen reactivity. Oxygen reactivity was then related to the 3-month outcome data. The levels of lact(md) and gluc(md) under hyperoxia were compared with the baseline levels, measured at 35% FiO2. Under normoxic conditions, there was a significant correlation between CBF and PtiO2 (R = 0.7; P < .001). In the sequential double CBF study, however, FiO2 was inversely correlated with CBF (P < .05). In the 14 patients undergoing the 6-hour 100% FiO2 challenge, the mean PtiO2 levels increased to 353 (87% compared with baseline), although the mean lact(md) levels decreased by 38 +/- 16% (P < .05). The PtiO2 response to 100% FiO2 (oxygen reactivity) was inversely correlated with outcome (P < .01). Monitoring PtiO2 after SHI provides valuable information about cerebral oxygenation and substrate delivery. Increasing arterial oxygen tension (PaO2) effectively increased PtiO2, and brain lact(md) was reduced by the same maneuver.

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Disturbed ionic and neurotransmitter homeostasis are now recognized to be probably the most important mechanisms contributing to the development of secondary brain swelling after traumatic brian injury (TBI). Evidence obtained from animal models indicates that posttraumatic neuronal excitation via excitatory amino acids leads to an increase in extracellular potassium, probably due to ion channel activation. The purpose of this study was therefore to measure dialysate potassium in severely head injured patients and to correlate these results with intracranial pressure (ICP), outcome, and also with the levels of dialysate glutamate, lactate, and cerebral blood flow (CBF) so as to determine the role of ischemia in this posttraumatic ionic dysfunction. Eighty-five patients with severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Scale score < 8) were treated according to an intensive ICP management-focused protocol. All patients underwent intracerebral microdialyis. Dialysate potassium levels were analyzed by flame photometry, as were dialysate glutamate and dialysate lactate levels, which were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography and an enzyme-linked amperometric method in 72 and 84 patients respectively. Cerebral blood flow studies (stable Xenon--computerized tomography scanning) were performed in 59 patients. In approximately 20% of the patients, potassium values were increased (dialysate potassium > 1.8 mmol). Mean dialysate potassium (> 2 mmol) was associated with ICP above 30 mm Hg and fatal outcome. Dialysate potassium correlated positively with dialysate glutamate (p < 0.0001) and lactate levels (p < 0.0001). Dialysate potassium was significantly inversely correlated with reduced CBF (p = 0.019). Dialysate potassium was increased after TBI in 20% of measurements. High levels of dialysate potassium were associated with increased ICP and poor outcome. The simultaneous increase of potassium, together with dialysate glutamate and lactate, supports the hypothesis that glutamate induces ionic flux and consequently increases ICP due to astrocytic swelling. Reduced CBF was also significantly correlated with increased levels of dialysate potassium. This may be due to either cell swelling or altered potassium reactivity in cerebral blood vessels after trauma.

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The most important early pathomechanism in traumatic brain injury (TBI) is alteration of the resting membrane potential. This may be mediated via voltage, or agonist-dependent ion channels (e.g. glutamate-dependent channels). This may result in a consequent increase in metabolism with increased oxygen consumption, in order to try to restore ionic balance via the ATP-dependent pumps. We hypothesize that glutamate is an important agonist in this process and may induce an increase in lactate, potassium and brain tissue CO2, and hence a decrease in brain pH. Further we propose that an increase in lactate is thus not an indicator of anaerobic metabolic conditions as has been thought for many years. We therefore analyzed a total of 85 patients with TBI, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) < 8 using microdialysis, brain tissue oxygen, CO2 and pH monitoring. Cerebral blood flow studies (CBF) were performed to test the relationship between regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) and the metabolic determinants. Glutamate was significantly correlated with lactate (p < 0.0001), potassium (p < 0.0001), brain tissue pH (p = 0.0005), and brain tissue CO2 (p = 0.006). rCBF was inversely correlated with glutamate, lactate and potassium. 44% of high lactate values were observed in brain with tissue oxygen values, above the threshold level for cell damage. These results support the hypothesis of a glutamate driven increase in metabolism, with secondary traumatic depolarization and possibly hyperglycolysis. Further, we demonstrate evidence for lactate production in aerobic conditions in humans after TBI. Finally, when reduced regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) is observed, high dialysate glutamate, lactate and potassium values are usually seen, suggesting ischemia worsens these TBI-induced changes.

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BACKGROUND: We aimed to study the incidence and outcome of severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) in Switzerland and to test the feasibility of a large cohort study with case identification in the first 24 hours and 6-month follow-up. METHODS: From January to June 2005, we consecutively enrolled and followed up all persons with severe TBI (Abbreviated Injury Score of the head region >3 and Glasgow Coma Scale <9) in the catchment areas of 3 Swiss medical centres with neurosurgical facilities. The primary outcome was the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE) after 6 months. Secondary outcomes included survival, Functional Independence Mea - sure (FIM), and health-related quality of life (SF-12) at defined time-points up to 6 months after injury. RESULTS: We recruited 101 participants from a source population of about 2.47 million (ie, about 33% of Swiss population). The incidence of severe TBI was 8.2 per 100,000 person-years. The overall case fatality was 70%: 41 of 101 persons (41%) died at the scene of the accident. 23 of 60 hospitalised participants (38%) died within 48 hours, and 31 (53%) within 6 months. In all hospitalised patients, the median GOSE was 1 (range 1-8) after 6 months, and was 6 (2-8) in 6-month survivors. The median total FIM score was 125 (range 18-126); median-SF-12 component mea - sures were 44 (25-55) for the physical scale and 52 (32-65) for the mental scale. CONCLUSIONS: Severe TBI was associated with high case fatality and considerable morbidity in survivors. We demonstrated the feasibility of a multicentre cohort study in Switzerland with the aim of identifying modifiable determinants of outcome and improving current trauma care.

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BACKGROUND: Transient neurological dysfunction (TND) consists of postoperative confusion, delirium and agitation. It is underestimated after surgery on the thoracic aorta and its influence on long-term quality of life (QoL) has not yet been studied. This study aimed to assess the influence of TND on short- and long-term outcome following surgery of the ascending aorta and proximal arch. METHODS: Nine hundred and seven patients undergoing surgery of the ascending aorta and the proximal aortic arch at our institution were included. Two hundred and ninety patients (31.9%) underwent surgery because of acute aortic dissection type A (AADA) and 617 patients because of aortic aneurysm. In 547 patients (60.3%) the distal anastomosis was performed using deep hypothermic circulatory arrest (DHCA). TND was defined as a Glasgow coma scale (GCS) value <13. All surviving patients had a clinical follow up and QoL was assessed with an SF-36 questionnaire. RESULTS: Overall in-hospital mortality was 8.3%. TND occurred in 89 patients (9.8%). As compared to patients without TND, those who suffered from TND were older (66.4 vs 59.9 years, p<0.01) underwent more frequently emergent procedures (53% vs 32%, p<0.05) and surgery under DHCA (84.3% vs 57.7%, p<0.05). However, duration of DHCA and extent of surgery did not influence the incidence of TND. In-hospital mortality in the group of patients with TND compared to the group without TND was similar (12.0% vs 11.4%; p=ns). Patients with TND suffered more frequently from coronary artery disease (28% vs 20.8%, p=ns) and were more frequently admitted in a compromised haemodynamic condition (23.6% vs 9.9%, p<0.05). Postoperative course revealed more pulmonary complications such as prolonged mechanical ventilation. Additional to their transient neurological dysfunction, significantly more patients had strokes with permanent neurological loss of function (14.6% vs 4.8%, p<0.05) compared to the patients without TND. ICU and hospital stay were significantly prolonged in TND patients (18+/-13 days vs 12+/-7 days, p<0.05). Over a mean follow-up interval of 27+/-14 months, patients with TND showed a significantly impaired QoL. CONCLUSION: The neurological outcome following surgery of the ascending aorta and proximal aortic arch is of paramount importance. The impact of TND on short- and long-term outcome is underestimated and negatively affects the short- and long-term outcome.

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BACKGROUND: The traditional approach to stable blunt thoracic aortic injuries (TAI) is immediate repair, with delayed repair reserved for patients with major associated injuries. In recent years, there has been a trend toward delayed repair, even in low-risk patients. This study evaluates the current practices in the surgical community regarding the timing of aortic repair and its effects on outcomes. METHODS: This was a prospective, observational multicenter study sponsored by the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma. The study included patients with blunt TAI scheduled for aortic repair by open or endovascular procedure. Patients in extremis and those managed without aortic repair were excluded. The data collection included demographics, initial clinical presentation, Injury Severity Scores, type and site of aortic injury, type of aortic repair (open or endovascular repair), and time from injury to aortic repair. The study patients were divided into an early repair (< or = 24 hours) and delayed repair groups (> 24 hours). The outcome variables included survival, ventilator days, intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital lengths of stay, blood transfusions, and complications. The outcomes in the two groups were compared with multivariate analysis after adjusting for age, Glasgow Coma Scale, hypotension, major associated injuries, and type of aortic repair. A second multivariate analysis compared outcomes between early and delayed repair, in patients with and patients without major associated injuries. RESULTS: There were 178 patients with TAI eligible for inclusion and analysis, 109 (61.2%) of which underwent early repair and 69 (38.8%) delayed repair. The two groups had similar epidemiologic, injury severity, and type of repair characteristics. The adjusted mortality was significantly higher in the early repair group (adjusted OR [95% CI] 7.78 [1.69-35.70], adjusted p value = 0.008). The adjusted complication rate was similar in the two groups. However, delayed repair was associated with significantly longer ICU and hospital lengths of stay. Analysis of the 108 patients without major associated injuries, adjusting for age, Glasgow Coma Scale, hypotension, and type of aortic repair, showed that in early repair there was a trend toward higher mortality rate (adjusted OR 9.08 [0.88-93.78], adjusted p value = 0.064) but a significantly lower complication rate (adjusted OR 0.4 [0.18-0.96], adjusted p value 0.040) and shorter ICU stay (adjusted p value = 0.021) than the delayed repair group. A similar analysis of the 68 patients with major associated injuries, showed a strong trend toward higher mortality in the early repair group (adjusted OR 9.39 [0.93-95.18], adjusted p value = 0.058). The complication rate was similar in both groups (adjusted p value = 0.239). CONCLUSIONS: Delayed repair of stable blunt TAI is associated with improved survival, irrespective of the presence or not of major associated injuries. However, delayed repair is associated with a longer length of ICU stay and in the group of patients with no major associated injuries a significantly higher complication rate.

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The child who presents with acute coma runs a high risk of cardiopulmonary insufficiency, direct brain injury or even cerebral herniation. The case-management of such child requires a coma-specific emergent evaluation, immediate treatment of any hypoxicischemic insults and of the underlying cause. The coma-specific examination includes performance of child-adapted Glasgow Coma Score, the evaluation of brain stem functions such as pupillary response to light, cough- and gag reflex, and determination of all vital signs including body temperature. Treatment of hypoxicischemic insults includes control of airways and ventilation in patient with coma defined as GCS <8; liberal treatment of impaired cardiovascular states with isotonic fluids such as 0.9% sodium chloride; and treatment of cerebral herniation with head elevation, mannitol, hypertonic sodium chlorid fluids, steroids and hyperventilation. Immediately treatable causes are hypoglycemia, meningitis/encephalitis, opioid overdose and status epilepticus. Exclusion of rapidly progressive intracranial lesions almost always requires referral to the tertiary centre with head CT-scan facilities. Finally, an extensive etiology search of the stable coma is performed by looking for disease or trauma of the brain, for metabolic causes, for intoxications and for cardiopulmonary problems.

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Hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy (HIE) is of major importance in neonatal and paediatric intensive care with regard to mortality and long-term morbidity. Our aim was to analyse our data in full-term neonates and children with special regard to withdrawal of life support and bad outcome. PATIENTS: All patients with HIE admitted to our unit from 1992-96 were analysed. Criteria for HIE were presence of a hypoxic insult followed by coma or altered consciousness with or without convulsions. Severity of HIE was assessed in neonates using Sarnat stages, and in children the duration of coma. In the majority of cases staging was completed with electrophysiological studies. Outcome was described using the Glasgow Outcome Scale. Bad outcome was defined as death, permanent vegetative state or severe disability, good outcome as moderate disability or good recovery. RESULTS: In the neonatal group (n = 38) outcome was significantly associated with Sarnat stages, presence of convulsions, severely abnormal EEG, cardiovascular failure, and multiple organ dysfunction (MOD). A bad outcome was observed in 27 cases with 14 deaths and 13 survivors. Supportive treatment was withdrawn in 14 cases with 9 subsequent deaths. In the older age group (n = 45) outcome was related to persistent coma of 24-48 h, severely abnormal EEG, cardiovascular failure, liver dysfunction and MOD. A bad outcome was found in 36 cases with 33 deaths and 3 survivors. Supportive treatment was withdrawn in 15 instances, all followed by death. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, neonates and older patients did not differ with regard to good or bad outcome. However, in the neonatal group there were significantly more survivors with bad outcome, either overall or after withdrawal of support. Possible explanations for this difference include variability of hypoxic insult, maturational and metabolic differences, and the more compliant neonatal skull, which prevents brainstem herniation.

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BACKGROUND: Treatment strategies for acute basilar artery occlusion (BAO) are based on case series and data that have been extrapolated from stroke intervention trials in other cerebrovascular territories, and information on the efficacy of different treatments in unselected patients with BAO is scarce. We therefore assessed outcomes and differences in treatment response after BAO. METHODS: The Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS) is a prospective, observational registry of consecutive patients who presented with an acute symptomatic and radiologically confirmed BAO between November 1, 2002, and October 1, 2007. Stroke severity at time of treatment was dichotomised as severe (coma, locked-in state, or tetraplegia) or mild to moderate (any deficit that was less than severe). Outcome was assessed at 1 month. Poor outcome was defined as a modified Rankin scale score of 4 or 5, or death. Patients were divided into three groups according to the treatment they received: antithrombotic treatment only (AT), which comprised antiplatelet drugs or systemic anticoagulation; primary intravenous thrombolysis (IVT), including subsequent intra-arterial thrombolysis; or intra-arterial therapy (IAT), which comprised thrombolysis, mechanical thrombectomy, stenting, or a combination of these approaches. Risk ratios (RR) for treatment effects were adjusted for age, the severity of neurological deficits at the time of treatment, time to treatment, prodromal minor stroke, location of the occlusion, and diabetes. FINDINGS: 619 patients were entered in the registry. 27 patients were excluded from the analyses because they did not receive AT, IVT, or IAT, and all had a poor outcome. Of the 592 patients who were analysed, 183 were treated with only AT, 121 with IVT, and 288 with IAT. Overall, 402 (68%) of the analysed patients had a poor outcome. No statistically significant superiority was found for any treatment strategy. Compared with outcome after AT, patients with a mild-to-moderate deficit (n=245) had about the same risk of poor outcome after IVT (adjusted RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.60-1.45) or after IAT (adjusted RR 1.29, 0.97-1.72) but had a worse outcome after IAT compared with IVT (adjusted RR 1.49, 1.00-2.23). Compared with AT, patients with a severe deficit (n=347) had a lower risk of poor outcome after IVT (adjusted RR 0.88, 0.76-1.01) or IAT (adjusted RR 0.94, 0.86-1.02), whereas outcomes were similar after treatment with IAT or IVT (adjusted RR 1.06, 0.91-1.22). INTERPRETATION: Most patients in the BASICS registry received IAT. Our results do not support unequivocal superiority of IAT over IVT, and the efficacy of IAT versus IVT in patients with an acute BAO needs to be assessed in a randomised controlled trial. FUNDING: Department of Neurology, University Medical Center Utrecht.

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The likelihood that comets may have delivered part of the water to Earth has been reinforced by the recent observation of the earth-like D/H ratio in Jupiter-family comet 103P/Hartley 2 by Hartogh et al. (2011). Prior to this observation, results from several Oort cloud comets indicated a factor of 2 enrichment of deuterium relative to the abundance at Earth. The European Space Agency’s Rosetta spacecraft will encounter comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, another Jupiter-family comet of likely Kuiper belt origin, in 2014 and accompany it from almost aphelion to and past perihelion. Onboard Rosetta is the Rosetta Orbiter Spectrometer for Ion and Neutral Analysis (ROSINA) which consists of two mass spectrometers and a pressure sensor [Balsiger et al. 2007]. With its unprecedented mass resolution, for a space-borne instrument, the Double Focusing Mass Spectrometer (DFMS), one of the major subsystems of ROSINA, will be able to obtain unambiguously the ratios of the isotopes in water from in situ measurements in the coma around the comet. We will discuss the performance of this sensor on the basis of measurements of the terrestrial hydrogen and oxygen isotopic ratios performed with the flight spare instrument in the lab. We also show that the instrument on Rosetta is capable of measuring the D/H even in the very low density water background released by the spacecraft. This capability demonstrates that ROSINA should obtain very sensitive measurements of these ratios in the cometary environment. These measurements will allow detection of fractionation as function of the distance from the nucleus as well as fractionation due to mechanisms that are correlated with heliocentric distance.

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Background Whereas it is well established that various soluble biomarkers can predict level of liver fibrosis, their ability to predict liver-related clinical outcomes is less clearly established, in particular among HIV/viral hepatitis co-infected persons. We investigated plasma hyaluronic acid’s (HA) ability to predict risk of liver-related events (LRE; hepatic coma or liver-related death) in the EuroSIDA study. Methods Patients included were positive for anti-HCV and/or HBsAg with at least one available plasma sample. The earliest collected plasma sample was tested for HA (normal range 0–75 ng/mL) and levels were associated with risk of LRE. Change in HA per year of follow-up was estimated after measuring HA levels in latest sample before the LRE for those experiencing this outcome (cases) and in a random selection of one sixth of the remaining patients (controls). Results During a median of 8.2 years of follow-up, 84/1252 (6.7%) patients developed a LRE. Baseline median (IQR) HA in those without and with a LRE was 31.8 (17.2–62.6) and 221.6 ng/mL (74.9–611.3), respectively (p<0.0001). After adjustment, HA levels predicted risk of contracting a LRE; incidence rate ratios for HA levels 75–250 or ≥250 vs. <75 ng/mL were 5.22 (95% CI 2.86–9.26, p<0.0007) and 28.22 (95% CI 14.95–46.00, p<0.0001), respectively. Median HA levels increased substantially prior to developing a LRE (107.6 ng/mL, IQR 0.8 to 251.1), but remained stable for controls (1.0 ng/mL, IQR –5.1 to 8.2), (p<0.0001 comparing cases and controls), and greater increases predicted risk of a LRE in adjusted models (p<0.001). Conclusions An elevated level of plasma HA, particularly if the level further increases over time, substantially increases the risk of contracting LRE over the next five years. HA is an inexpensive, standardized and non-invasive supplement to other methods aimed at identifying HIV/viral hepatitis co-infected patients at risk of hepatic complications.