Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600–present

As the understanding and representation of the impacts of volcanic eruptions on climate have improved in the last decades, uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing from large eruptions are now linked not only to visible optical depth estimates on a global scale but also to details on the size, latitude and altitude distributions of the stratospheric aerosols. Based on our understanding of these uncertainties, we propose a new model-based approach to generating a volcanic forcing for general circulation model (GCM) and chemistry–climate model (CCM) simulations. This new volcanic forcing, covering the 1600–present period, uses an aerosol microphysical model to provide a realistic, physically consistent treatment of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Twenty-six eruptions were modeled individually using the latest available ice cores aerosol mass estimates and historical data on the latitude and date of eruptions. The evolution of aerosol spatial and size distribution after the sulfur dioxide discharge are hence characterized for each volcanic eruption. Large variations are seen in hemispheric partitioning and size distributions in relation to location/date of eruptions and injected SO2 masses. Results for recent eruptions show reasonable agreement with observations. By providing these new estimates of spatial distributions of shortwave and long-wave radiative perturbations, this volcanic forcing may help to better constrain the climate model responses to volcanic eruptions in the 1600–present period. The final data set consists of 3-D values (with constant longitude) of spectrally resolved extinction coefficients, single scattering albedos and asymmetry factors calculated for different wavelength bands upon request. Surface area densities for heterogeneous chemistry are also provided.

A Parametric Test of Perfect Ranking in Balanced Ranked Set Sampling

Many techniques based on data which are drawn by Ranked Set Sampling (RSS) scheme assume that the ranking of observations is perfect. Therefore it is essential to develop some methods for testing this assumption. In this article, we propose a parametric location-scale free test for assessing the assumption of perfect ranking. The results of a simulation study in two special cases of normal and exponential distributions indicate that the proposed test performs well in comparison with its leading competitors.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Monitoring Strategies for Antiretroviral Therapy of HIV Infected Patients in Resource-Limited Settings: Software Tool.

BACKGROUND The cost-effectiveness of routine viral load (VL) monitoring of HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) depends on various factors that differ between settings and across time. Low-cost point-of-care (POC) tests for VL are in development and may make routine VL monitoring affordable in resource-limited settings. We developed a software tool to study the cost-effectiveness of switching to second-line ART with different monitoring strategies, and focused on POC-VL monitoring. METHODS We used a mathematical model to simulate cohorts of patients from start of ART until death. We modeled 13 strategies (no 2nd-line, clinical, CD4 (with or without targeted VL), POC-VL, and laboratory-based VL monitoring, with different frequencies). We included a scenario with identical failure rates across strategies, and one in which routine VL monitoring reduces the risk of failure. We compared lifetime costs and averted disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). We developed an Excel tool to update the results of the model for varying unit costs and cohort characteristics, and conducted several sensitivity analyses varying the input costs. RESULTS Introducing 2nd-line ART had an ICER of US$1651-1766/DALY averted. Compared with clinical monitoring, the ICER of CD4 monitoring was US$1896-US$5488/DALY averted and VL monitoring US$951-US$5813/DALY averted. We found no difference between POC- and laboratory-based VL monitoring, except for the highest measurement frequency (every 6 months), where laboratory-based testing was more effective. Targeted VL monitoring was on the cost-effectiveness frontier only if the difference between 1st- and 2nd-line costs remained large, and if we assumed that routine VL monitoring does not prevent failure. CONCLUSION Compared with the less expensive strategies, the cost-effectiveness of routine VL monitoring essentially depends on the cost of 2nd-line ART. Our Excel tool is useful for determining optimal monitoring strategies for specific settings, with specific sex-and age-distributions and unit costs.

A novel quantitative method for analyzing the distributions of nanoparticles between different tissue and intracellular compartments

The penetration, translocation, and distribution of ultrafine and nanoparticles in tissues and cells are challenging issues in aerosol research. This article describes a set of novel quantitative microscopic methods for evaluating particle distributions within sectional images of tissues and cells by addressing the following questions: (1) is the observed distribution of particles between spatial compartments random? (2) Which compartments are preferentially targeted by particles? and (3) Does the observed particle distribution shift between different experimental groups? Each of these questions can be addressed by testing an appropriate null hypothesis. The methods all require observed particle distributions to be estimated by counting the number of particles associated with each defined compartment. For studying preferential labeling of compartments, the size of each of the compartments must also be estimated by counting the number of points of a randomly superimposed test grid that hit the different compartments. The latter provides information about the particle distribution that would be expected if the particles were randomly distributed, that is, the expected number of particles. From these data, we can calculate a relative deposition index (RDI) by dividing the observed number of particles by the expected number of particles. The RDI indicates whether the observed number of particles corresponds to that predicted solely by compartment size (for which RDI = 1). Within one group, the observed and expected particle distributions are compared by chi-squared analysis. The total chi-squared value indicates whether an observed distribution is random. If not, the partial chi-squared values help to identify those compartments that are preferential targets of the particles (RDI > 1). Particle distributions between different groups can be compared in a similar way by contingency table analysis. We first describe the preconditions and the way to implement these methods, then provide three worked examples, and finally discuss the advantages, pitfalls, and limitations of this method.

The effects of impingement and dysplasia on stress distributions in the hip joint during sitting and walking: a finite element analysis

Soft tissue damage has been observed in hip joints with pathological geometries. Our primary goal was to study the relationship between morphological variations of the bony components of the hip and resultant stresses within the soft tissues of the joint during routine daily activities. The secondary goal was to find the range of morphological parameters in which stresses are minimized. Computational models of normal and pathological joints were developed based on variations of morphological parameters of the femoral head (Alpha angle) and acetabulum (CE angle). The Alpha angle was varied between 40 degrees (normal joint) and 80 degrees (cam joint). The CE angle was varied between 0 degrees (dysplastic joint) and 40 degrees (pincer joint). Dynamic loads and motions for walking and standing to sitting were applied to all joint configurations. Contact pressures and stresses were calculated and crosscompared to evaluate the influence of morphology. The stresses in the soft tissues depended strongly on the head and acetabular geometry. For the dysplastic joint, walking produced high acetabular rim stresses. Conversely, for impinging joints, standing-to-sitting activities that involved extensive motion were critical, inducing excessive distortion and shearing of the tissue-bone interface. Zones with high von Mises stresses corresponded with clinically observed damage zones in the acetabular cartilage and labrum. Hip joint morphological parameters that minimized were 20 degrees and alpha