Diversity versus disparity and the role of ecological opportunity in a continental bird radiation

Aim The Neotropical parrots (Arini) are an unusually diverse group which colonized South America in the Oligocene. The newly invaded Neotropics may have functioned as an underused adaptive zone and provided novel ecological opportunities that facilitated diversification. Alternatively, diversification may have been driven by ecological changes caused by Andean uplift and/or climate change from the Miocene onwards. Our aim was to find out whether Arini diversified in a classical adaptive radiation after their colonization of South America, or whether their diversification occurred later and was influenced by more recent environmental change. Location Neotropics. Methods We generated a time-calibrated phylogeny of more than 80% of all Arini species in order to analyse lineage diversification. This chronogram was also used as the basis for the reconstruction of morphological evolution within Arini using a multivariate ratio analysis of three size measurements. Results We found a concentration of size evolution and partitioning of size niches in the early history of Arini consistent with the process of adaptive radia- tion, but there were no signs of an early burst of speciation or a decrease in speci- ation rates through time. Although we detected no overall temporal shifts in diversification rates, we discovered two young, unexpectedly species-rich clades. Main conclusions Arini show signs of an early adaptive radiation, but we found no evidence of the slowdown in speciation rate generally considered a feature of island or lake radiations. Historical processes and environmental change from the Miocene onwards may have kept diversification rates roughly constant ever since the colonization of the Neotropics. Thus, Arini may not yet have reached equilibrium diversity. The lack of diversity-dependent speciation might be a general feature of adaptive radiations on a continental scale, and diversification processes on continents might therefore not be as ecologically limited as in isolated lakes or on oceanic islands.

Predictive Margins and Marginal Effects in Stata

Tables of estimated regression coefficients, usually accompanied by additional information such as standard errors, t-statistics, p-values, confidence intervals or significance stars, have long been the preferred way of communicating results from statistical models. In recent years, however, the limits of this form of exposition have been increasingly recognized. For example, interpretation of regression tables can be very challenging in the presence of complications such as interaction effects, categorical variables, or nonlinear functional forms. Furthermore, while these issues might still be manageable in the case of linear regression, interpretational difficulties can be overwhelming in nonlinear models such as logistic regression. To facilitate sensible interpretation of such models it is often necessary to compute additional results such as marginal effects, predictive margins, or contrasts. Moreover, smart graphical displays of results can be very valuable in making complex relations accessible. A number of helpful commands geared at supporting these tasks have been recently introduced in Stata, making elaborate interpretation and communication of regression results possible without much extra effort. Examples of such commands are -margins-, -contrasts-, and -marginsplot-. In my talk, I will discuss the capabilities of these commands and present a range of examples illustrating their use.

Chronostratigraphy of the 600,000 year old continental record of Lake Van

Lake Van sediment cores from the Ahlat Ridge and Northern Basin drill sites of the ICDP project PALEOVAN contain a wealth of information about past environmental processes. The sedimentary sequence was dated using climatostratigraphic alignment, varve chronology, tephrostratigraphy, argon-argon single-crystal dating, radiocarbon dating, magnetostratigraphy, and cosmogenic nuclides. Based on the lithostratigraphic framework, the different age constraints are compiled and a robust and precise chronology of the 600,000 year-old Lake Van record is constructed. Proxy records of total organic carbon content and sediment color, together with the calcium/potassium-ratios and arboreal pollen percentages of the 174-meter-long Ahlat Ridge record, mimic the Greenland isotope stratotype (NGRIP). Therefore, the proxy records are systematically aligned to the onsets of interstadials reflected in the NGRIP or synthesized Greenland ice-core stratigraphy. The chronology is constructed using 27 age control points derived from visual synchronization with the GICC05 timescale, an absolutely-dated speleothem record (e.g., Hulu, Sanbao, Linzhu cave) and the Epica Dome C timescale. In addition, the uppermost part of the sequence is complemented with four ages from Holocene varve chronology and two calibrated radiocarbon ages. Furthermore, nine argon-argon ages and a comparison of the relative paleointensity record of the magnetic field with reference curve PISO-1500 confirm the accuracy of the age model. Also the identification of the Laschamp event via measurements of 10Be in the sediment confirms the presented age model. The chronology of the Ahlat Ridge record is transferred to the 79-meter-long event-corrected composite record from the Northern Basin and supplemented by additional radiocarbon dating on organic marco-remains. The basal age of the Northern Basin record is estimated at ~90 ka. The variations of the time series of total organic carbon content, the Ca/K ratio, and the arboreal pollen percentages illustrate that the presented chronology and paleoclimate data are suited for reconstructions and modeling of the Quaternary and Pleistocene climate evolution in the Near East at millennial timescales. Furthermore, the chronology of the last 250 kyr can be used to test other dating techniques.

Continental degassing of 4He by surficial discharge of deep groundwater

Radiogenic He is produced by the decay of uranium and thorium in the Earth’s mantle and crust. From here, it is degassed to the atmosphere and eventually escapes to space. Assuming that all of the 4He produced is degassed, about 70% of the total He degassed from Earth comes from the continental crust. However, the outgoing flux of crustal He has not been directly measured at the Earth’s surface and the migration pathways are poorly understood. Here we present measurements of helium isotopes and the long-lived cosmogenic radio-isotope Kr in the deep, continental-scale Guarani aquifer in Brazil and show that crustal He reaches the atmosphere primarily by the surficial discharge of deep groundwater. We estimate that He in Guarani groundwater discharge accounts for about 20% of the assumed global flux from continental crust, and that other large aquifers may account for about 33%. Old groundwater ages suggest that He in the Guarani aquifer accumulates over half- to one-millionyear timescales. We conclude that He degassing from the continents is regulated by groundwater discharge, rather than episodic tectonic events, and suggest that the assumed steady state between crustal production and degassing of He, and its resulting atmospheric residence time, should be re-examined.

Comparison of noninferiority margins reported in protocols and publications showed incomplete and inconsistent reporting.

OBJECTIVES To compare noninferiority margins defined in study protocols and trial registry records with margins reported in subsequent publications. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Comparison of protocols of noninferiority trials submitted 2001 to 2005 to ethics committees in Switzerland and The Netherlands with corresponding publications and registry records. We searched MEDLINE via PubMed, the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (Cochrane Library issue 01/2012), and Google Scholar in September 2013 to identify published reports, and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform of the World Health Organization in March 2013 to identify registry records. Two readers recorded the noninferiority margin and other data using a standardized data-abstraction form. RESULTS The margin was identical in study protocol and publication in 43 (80%) of 54 pairs of study protocols and articles. In the remaining pairs, reporting was inconsistent (five pairs, 9%), or the noninferiority margin was either not reported in the publication (five pairs, 9%) or not defined in the study protocol (one pair). The confidence interval or the exact P-value required to judge whether the result was compatible with noninferior, inferior, or superior efficacy was reported in 43 (80%) publications. Complete and consistent reporting of both noninferiority margin and confidence interval (or exact P-value) was present in 39 (72%) protocol-publication pairs. Twenty-nine trials (54%) were registered in trial registries, but only one registry record included the noninferiority margin. CONCLUSION The reporting of noninferiority margins was incomplete and inconsistent with study protocols in a substantial proportion of published trials, and margins were rarely reported in trial registries.

Laparoscopic management of bowel endometriosis: resection margins as a predictor of recurrence.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate possible predictive factors for recurrence after laparoscopic segmental bowel resection for bowel endometriosis. DESIGN Cohort study. SETTING Academic tertiary referral center. METHODS 95 symptomatic women with bowel endometriosis who underwent laparoscopic segmental bowel resection at the Endometriosis clinic, University of Berne, between 2002 and 2012 were enrolled. Since 14 women were lost to follow-up, 81 formed the final cohort. Clinical and histological characteristics were examined as possible predictive factors for disease recurrence. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Recurrence, defined as a subsequent operation due to recurrent endometriosis-associated pain with a histologically confirmed endometriotic lesion. RESULTS Recurrence was observed in 13 (16%) patients. Variables that were significantly associated to recurrence by the Cox regression analysis were positive bowel resection margins (hazard ratio 6.5, 95% confidence interval 1.8-23.5, p = 0.005), age <31 years (hazard ratio 5.6, 95% confidence interval 1.7-18.6, p = 0.005) and body mass index ≥23 kg/m(2) (hazard ratio 11.0, 95% confidence interval 2.7-44.6, p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Positive bowel resection margins as well as age <31 years and body mass index ≥23 kg/m(2) appear to be independent predictors of disease recurrence.

Ediacaran 2,500-km-long synchronous deep continental subduction in the West Gondwana Orogen

The deeply eroded West Gondwana Orogen is a major continental collision zone that exposes numerous occurrences of deeply subducted rocks, such as eclogites. The position of these eclogites marks the suture zone between colliding cratons, and the age of metamorphism constrains the transition from subduction-dominated tectonics to continental collision and mountain building. Here we investigate the metamorphic conditions and age of high-pressure and ultrahigh-pressure eclogites from Mali, Togo and NE-Brazil and demonstrate that continental subduction occurred within 20 million years over at least a 2,500-km-long section of the orogen during the Ediacaran. We consider this to be the earliest evidence of large-scale deep-continental subduction and consequent appearance of Himalayan-scale mountains in the geological record. The rise and subsequent erosion of such mountains in the Late Ediacaran is perfectly timed to deliver sediments and nutrients that are thought to have been necessary for the subsequent evolution of sustainable life on Earth.

Valle d’Aosta section of the Sesia Zone: multi-stage HP metamorphism and assembly of a rifted continental margin

The spectrum characteristic of the EMC ranges from eclogites (containing omphacite and/or jadeite, garnet, phengite, glaucophane, zoisite, chloritoid, rutile) to phengite schists, calcschists, and marbles, as well as a variety of orthogneisses. Despite the intense polyphase deformation and HP-metamorphic recrystallization, it is possible in some locations to recognize pre-Alpine characteristics in some of the protoliths. For instance, two types of felsic orthogneiss can be distinguished in the Aosta Valley, one derived from Permian granitoids (with local preservation of intrusive contacts, magmatic inclusions, leucocratic veins and other magmatic structures; Stop 3), the other derived from pre-Variscan leuco-monzogranite, such as the building stone mined at the “Argentera” quarry near Settimo Vittone / Montestrutto (Stop 2; so-called “Verde Argento” contains jadeite, phengite, K-feldspar, quartz). Polycyclic and more rarely monocyclic metasediments contain evidence of a complex Alpine PTDt-evolution, locally including relics of their prograde history from blueschist, one or more stages at eclogite facies. Recent petrochronological studies have dated this HP-evolution of the Sesia Zone in some detail. In the area visited, clear evidence of HP-cycling has been identified in one km-size tectonic slice (Stop 1), but not in adjacent parts of the EMC, indicating “yo-yo tectonics”. Partial retrogression and attendant ductile to brittle deformation of the HP-rocks is evident in one of the outcrops (Stop 4). Apart from the four localities in the Sesia Zone, a final outcrop introduces HP-rocks of the adjacent Piemonte oceanic unit, specifically calc-schists and ophiolite members of the “Zermatt-Saas” zone. The hilltop outcrop (Stop 5) displays foliated antigorite schist with peridotite relics (clinopyroxene, spinel) containing lenses derived from doleritic dykes. These fine-grained metarodingites and the folded veins containing Mg-chlorite and titanoclinohumite within serpentinite once again indicate equilibration under low-temperature eclogite facies conditions. However, these units reached that HP stage more than 20 Ma after the youngest eclogite facies imprint recognized in the Sesia Zone. Despite nearly half a century of intense study in the Sesia Zone, the complex assembly of its HP-terranes and their relation to more external parts of the Western Alps remains incompletely understood. This field guide merely introduces a few of the classic outcrops and discusses some of the critical evidence they contain, but it could not incorporate details on each stage of the evolution recognized so far.

Multiple metamorphic stages within an eclogite-facies terrane (Sesia Zone, Western Alps) revealed by Th-U-Pb petrochronology

Convergent plate margins typically experience a transition from subduction to collision dynamics as massive continental blocks enter the subduction channel. Studies of high-pressure rocks indicate that tectonic fragments are rapidly exhumed from eclogite facies to midcrustal levels, but the details of such dynamics are controversial.To understand the dynamics of a subduction channel we report the results of a petrochronological study from the central Sesia Zone, a key element of the internalWestern Alps.This comprises two polymetamorphic basement complexes (Eclogitic Micaschist Complex and Gneiss Minuti Complex) and a thin, dismembered cover sequence (Scalaro Unit) associated with pre-Alpine metagabbros and metasediments (Bonze Unit). Structurally controlled samples from three of these units (Eclogitic Micaschist Complex and Scalaro-Bonze Units) yield unequivocal petrological and geochronological evidence of two distinct high-pressure stages. Ages (U-Th-Pb) of growth zones in accessory allanite and zircon, combined with inclusion and textural relationships, can be tied to the multi-stage evolution of single samples.Two independent tectono-metamorphic ‘slices’ showing a coherent metamorphic evolution during a given time interval have been recognized: the Fondo slice (which includes Scalaro and Bonze rocks) and the Druer slice (belonging to the Eclogitic Micaschist Complex).The new data indicate separate stages of deformation at eclogite-facies conditions for each recognized independent kilometer-sized tectono-metamorphic slice, between ~85 and 60 Ma, with evidence of intermittent decompression (∆P~0.5 GPa) within only the Fondo slice. The evolution path of the Druer slice indicates a different P-T-time evolution with prolonged eclogite-facies metamorphism between ~85 and 75Ma. Our approach, combining structural, petrological and geochronological techniques, yields field-based constraints on the duration and rates of dynamics within a subduction channel.

Continental-Scale Footprint of Balancing and Positive Selection in a Small Rodent (Microtus arvalis)

Genetic adaptation to different environmental conditions is expected to lead to large differences between populations at selected loci, thus providing a signature of positive selection. Whereas balancing selection can maintain polymorphisms over long evolutionary periods and even geographic scale, thus leads to low levels of divergence between populations at selected loci. However, little is known about the relative importance of these two selective forces in shaping genomic diversity, partly due to difficulties in recognizing balancing selection in species showing low levels of differentiation. Here we address this problem by studying genomic diversity in the European common vole (Microtus arvalis) presenting high levels of differentiation between populations (average FST = 0.31). We studied 3,839 Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) markers genotyped in 444 individuals from 21 populations distributed across the European continent and hence over different environmental conditions. Our statistical approach to detect markers under selection is based on a Bayesian method specifically developed for AFLP markers, which treats AFLPs as a nearly codominant marker system, and therefore has increased power to detect selection. The high number of screened populations allowed us to detect the signature of balancing selection across a large geographic area. We detected 33 markers potentially under balancing selection, hence strong evidence of stabilizing selection in 21 populations across Europe. However, our analyses identified four-times more markers (138) being under positive selection, and geographical patterns suggest that some of these markers are probably associated with alpine regions, which seem to have environmental conditions that favour adaptation. We conclude that despite favourable conditions in this study for the detection of balancing selection, this evolutionary force seems to play a relatively minor role in shaping the genomic diversity of the common vole, which is more influenced by positive selection and neutral processes like drift and demographic history.