Modeling the stratospheric warming following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption: uncertainties in aerosol extinctions

In terms of atmospheric impact, the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo (1991) is the best characterized large eruption on record. We investigate here the model-derived stratospheric warming following the Pinatubo eruption as derived from SAGE II extinction data including recent improvements in the processing algorithm. This method, termed SAGE_4λ, makes use of the four wavelengths (385, 452, 525 and 1024 nm) of the SAGE II data when available, and uses a data-filling procedure in the opacity-induced "gap" regions. Using SAGE_4λ, we derived aerosol size distributions that properly reproduce extinction coefficients also at much longer wavelengths. This provides a good basis for calculating the absorption of terrestrial infrared radiation and the resulting stratospheric heating. However, we also show that the use of this data set in a global chemistry–climate model (CCM) still leads to stronger aerosol-induced stratospheric heating than observed, with temperatures partly even higher than the already too high values found by many models in recent general circulation model (GCM) and CCM intercomparisons. This suggests that the overestimation of the stratospheric warming after the Pinatubo eruption may not be ascribed to an insufficient observational database but instead to using outdated data sets, to deficiencies in the implementation of the forcing data, or to radiative or dynamical model artifacts. Conversely, the SAGE_4λ approach reduces the infrared absorption in the tropical tropopause region, resulting in a significantly better agreement with the post-volcanic temperature record at these altitudes.

A global historical ozone data set and prominent features of stratospheric variability prior to 1979

We present a vertically resolved zonal mean monthly mean global ozone data set spanning the period 1901 to 2007, called HISTOZ.1.0. It is based on a new approach that combines information from an ensemble of chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations with historical total column ozone information. The CCM simulations incorporate important external drivers of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics (in particular solar and volcanic effects, greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, sea surface temperatures, and the quasi-biennial oscillation). The historical total column ozone observations include ground-based measurements from the 1920s onward and satellite observations from 1970 to 1976. An off-line data assimilation approach is used to combine model simulations, observations, and information on the observation error. The period starting in 1979 was used for validation with existing ozone data sets and therefore only ground-based measurements were assimilated. Results demonstrate considerable skill from the CCM simulations alone. Assimilating observations provides additional skill for total column ozone. With respect to the vertical ozone distribution, assimilating observations increases on average the correlation with a reference data set, but does not decrease the mean squared error. Analyses of HISTOZ.1.0 with respect to the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the 11 yr solar cycle on stratospheric ozone from 1934 to 1979 qualitatively confirm previous studies that focussed on the post-1979 period. The ENSO signature exhibits a much clearer imprint of a change in strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation compared to the post-1979 period. The imprint of the 11 yr solar cycle is slightly weaker in the earlier period. Furthermore, the total column ozone increase from the 1950s to around 1970 at northern mid-latitudes is briefly discussed. Indications for contributions of a tropospheric ozone increase, greenhouse gases, and changes in atmospheric circulation are found. Finally, the paper points at several possible future improvements of HISTOZ.1.0.

Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a cooling of several degrees. In the stratosphere, the strong heating leads to an acceleration of catalytic ozone loss and, consequently, to enhancements of UV radiation at the ground. In contrast to surface temperature and precipitation changes, which show a linear dependence to the soot burden, there is a saturation effect with respect to stratospheric ozone chemistry. Soot emissions of 5 Tg lead to an ozone column reduction of almost 50% in northern high latitudes, while emitting 12 Tg only increases ozone loss by a further 10%. In summary, this study, though using a different chemistry climate model, corroborates the previous investigations with respect to the atmospheric impacts. In addition to these persistent effects, the present study draws attention to episodically cold phases, which would likely add to the severity of human harm worldwide. The best insurance against such a catastrophic development would be the delegitimization of nuclear weapons.

Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600–present

As the understanding and representation of the impacts of volcanic eruptions on climate have improved in the last decades, uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing from large eruptions are now linked not only to visible optical depth estimates on a global scale but also to details on the size, latitude and altitude distributions of the stratospheric aerosols. Based on our understanding of these uncertainties, we propose a new model-based approach to generating a volcanic forcing for general circulation model (GCM) and chemistry–climate model (CCM) simulations. This new volcanic forcing, covering the 1600–present period, uses an aerosol microphysical model to provide a realistic, physically consistent treatment of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Twenty-six eruptions were modeled individually using the latest available ice cores aerosol mass estimates and historical data on the latitude and date of eruptions. The evolution of aerosol spatial and size distribution after the sulfur dioxide discharge are hence characterized for each volcanic eruption. Large variations are seen in hemispheric partitioning and size distributions in relation to location/date of eruptions and injected SO2 masses. Results for recent eruptions show reasonable agreement with observations. By providing these new estimates of spatial distributions of shortwave and long-wave radiative perturbations, this volcanic forcing may help to better constrain the climate model responses to volcanic eruptions in the 1600–present period. The final data set consists of 3-D values (with constant longitude) of spectrally resolved extinction coefficients, single scattering albedos and asymmetry factors calculated for different wavelength bands upon request. Surface area densities for heterogeneous chemistry are also provided.

Influence of inspiration to expiration ratio on cyclic recruitment and derecruitment of atelectasis in a saline lavage model of acute respiratory distress syndrome*

OBJECTIVE Cyclic recruitment and derecruitment of atelectasis can occur during mechanical ventilation, especially in injured lungs. Experimentally, cyclic recruitment and derecruitment can be quantified by respiration-dependent changes in PaO2 (ΔPaO2), reflecting the varying intrapulmonary shunt fraction within the respiratory cycle. This study investigated the effect of inspiration to expiration ratio upon ΔPaO2 and Horowitz index. DESIGN Prospective randomized study. SETTING Laboratory investigation. SUBJECTS Piglets, average weight 30 ± 2 kg. INTERVENTIONS At respiratory rate 6 breaths/min, end-inspiratory pressure (Pendinsp) 40 cm H2O, positive end-expiratory pressure 5 cm H2O, and FIO2 1.0, measurements were performed at randomly set inspiration to expiration ratios during baseline healthy and mild surfactant depletion injury. Lung damage was titrated by repetitive surfactant washout to induce maximal cyclic recruitment and derecruitment as measured by multifrequency phase fluorimetry. Regional ventilation distribution was evaluated by electrical impedance tomography. Step changes in airway pressure from 5 to 40 cm H2O and vice versa were performed after lavage to calculate PO2-based recruitment and derecruitment time constants (TAU). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS In baseline healthy, cyclic recruitment and derecruitment could not be provoked, whereas in model acute respiratory distress syndrome, the highest ΔPaO2 were routinely detected at an inspiration to expiration ratio of 1:4 (range, 52-277 torr [6.9-36.9 kPa]). Shorter expiration time reduced cyclic recruitment and derecruitment significantly (158 ± 85 torr [21.1 ± 11.3 kPa] [inspiration to expiration ratio, 1:4]; 25 ± 12 torr [3.3 ± 1.6 kPa] [inspiration to expiration ratio, 4:1]; p < 0.0001), whereas the PaO2/FIO2 ratio increased (267 ± 50 [inspiration to expiration ratio, 1:4]; 424 ± 53 [inspiration to expiration ratio, 4:1]; p < 0.0001). Correspondingly, regional ventilation redistributed toward dependent lung regions (p < 0.0001). Recruitment was much faster (TAU: fast 1.6 s [78%]; slow 9.2 s) than derecruitment (TAU: fast 3.1 s [87%]; slow 17.7 s) (p = 0.0078). CONCLUSIONS Inverse ratio ventilation minimizes cyclic recruitment and derecruitment of atelectasis in an experimental model of surfactant-depleted pigs. Time constants for recruitment and derecruitment, and regional ventilation distribution, reflect these findings and highlight the time dependency of cyclic recruitment and derecruitment.

Cirrhotic cardiomyopathy: A cardiologist’s perspective

Cardiac dysfunction is frequently observed in patients with cirrhosis, and has long been linked to the direct toxic effect of alcohol. Cirrhotic cardiomyopathy (CCM) has recently been identified as an entity regardless of the cirrhosis etiology. Increased cardiac output due to hyperdynamic circulation is a pathophysiological hallmark of the disease. The underlying mechanisms involved in pathogenesis of CCM are complex and involve various neurohumoral and cellular pathways, including the impaired β-receptor and calcium signaling, altered cardiomyocyte membrane physiology, elevated sympathetic nervous tone and increased activity of vasodilatory pathways predominantly through the actions of nitric oxide, carbon monoxide and endocannabinoids. The main clinical features of CCM include attenuated systolic contractility in response to physiologic or pharmacologic strain, diastolic dysfunction, electrical conductance abnormalities and chronotropic incompetence. Particularly the diastolic dysfunction with impaired ventricular relaxation and ventricular filling is a prominent feature of CCM. The underlying mechanism of diastolic dysfunction in cirrhosis is likely due to the increased myocardial wall stiffness caused by myocardial hypertrophy, fibrosis and subendothelial edema, subsequently resulting in high filling pressures of the left ventricle and atrium. Currently, no specific treatment exists for CCM. The liver transplantation is the only established effective therapy for patients with end-stage liver disease and associated cardiac failure. Liver transplantation has been shown to reverse systolic and diastolic dysfunction and the prolonged QT interval after transplantation. Here, we review the pathophysiological basis and clinical features of cirrhotic cardiomyopathy, and discuss currently available limited therapeutic options.

Further Concerns About Glutamine: A Case Report on Hyperammonemic Encephalopathy.

OBJECTIVE We report a case of a woman with hyperammonemic encephalopathy following glutamine supplementation. DESIGN Case report. INTERVENTIONS Plasma amino acid analysis suggestive of a urea cycle defect and initiation of a treatment with lactulose and the two ammonia scavenger drugs sodium benzoate and phenylacetate. Together with a restricted protein intake ammonia and glutamine plasma levels decreased with subsequent improvement of the neurological status. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS Massive catabolism and exogenous glutamine administration may have contributed to hyperammonemia and hyperglutaminemia in this patient. CONCLUSION This case adds further concerns regarding glutamine administration to critically ill patients and implies the importance of monitoring ammonia and glutamine serum levels in such patients.

Premature Discontinuation of Randomized Trials in Critical and Emergency Care: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES Randomized clinical trials that enroll patients in critical or emergency care (acute care) setting are challenging because of narrow time windows for recruitment and the inability of many patients to provide informed consent. To assess the extent that recruitment challenges lead to randomized clinical trial discontinuation, we compared the discontinuation of acute care and nonacute care randomized clinical trials. DESIGN Retrospective cohort of 894 randomized clinical trials approved by six institutional review boards in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada between 2000 and 2003. SETTING Randomized clinical trials involving patients in an acute or nonacute care setting. SUBJECTS AND INTERVENTIONS We recorded trial characteristics, self-reported trial discontinuation, and self-reported reasons for discontinuation from protocols, corresponding publications, institutional review board files, and a survey of investigators. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS Of 894 randomized clinical trials, 64 (7%) were acute care randomized clinical trials (29 critical care and 35 emergency care). Compared with the 830 nonacute care randomized clinical trials, acute care randomized clinical trials were more frequently discontinued (28 of 64, 44% vs 221 of 830, 27%; p = 0.004). Slow recruitment was the most frequent reason for discontinuation, both in acute care (13 of 64, 20%) and in nonacute care randomized clinical trials (7 of 64, 11%). Logistic regression analyses suggested the acute care setting as an independent risk factor for randomized clinical trial discontinuation specifically as a result of slow recruitment (odds ratio, 4.00; 95% CI, 1.72-9.31) after adjusting for other established risk factors, including nonindustry sponsorship and small sample size. CONCLUSIONS Acute care randomized clinical trials are more vulnerable to premature discontinuation than nonacute care randomized clinical trials and have an approximately four-fold higher risk of discontinuation due to slow recruitment. These results highlight the need for strategies to reliably prevent and resolve slow patient recruitment in randomized clinical trials conducted in the critical and emergency care setting.

Prognostic Value of Secretoneurin in Critically Ill Patients With Infections.

OBJECTIVES Secretoneurin is produced in neuroendocrine cells, and the myocardium and circulating secretoneurin levels provide incremental prognostic information to established risk indices in cardiovascular disease. As myocardial dysfunction contributes to poor outcome in critically ill patients, we wanted to assess the prognostic value of secretoneurin in two cohorts of critically ill patients with infections. DESIGN Two prospective, observational studies. SETTING Twenty-four and twenty-five ICUs in Finland. PATIENTS A total of 232 patients with severe sepsis (cohort #1) and 94 patients with infections and respiratory failure (cohort #2). INTERVENTIONS None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS We measured secretoneurin levels by radioimmunoassay in samples obtained early after ICU admission and compared secretoneurin with other risk indices. In patients with severe sepsis, admission secretoneurin levels (logarithmically transformed) were associated with hospital mortality (odds ratio, 3.17 [95% CI, 1.12-9.00]; p = 0.030) and shock during the hospitalization (odds ratio, 2.17 [1.06-4.46]; p = 0.034) in analyses that adjusted for other risk factors available on ICU admission. Adding secretoneurin levels to age, which was also associated with hospital mortality in the multivariate model, improved the risk prediction as assessed by the category-free net reclassification index: 0.35 (95% CI, 0.06-0.64) (p = 0.02). In contrast, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels were not associated with mortality in the multivariate model that included secretoneurin measurements, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide did not improve patient classification on top of age. Secretoneurin levels were also associated with hospital mortality after adjusting for other risk factors and improved patient classification in cohort #2. In both cohorts, the optimal cutoff for secretoneurin levels at ICU admission to predict hospital mortality was ≈ 175 pmol/L, and higher levels were associated with mortality also when adjusting for Simplified Acute Physiology Score II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores. CONCLUSIONS Secretoneurin levels provide incremental information to established risk indices for the prediction of mortality and shock in critically ill patients with severe infections.