A climatology of the diurnal variations of stratospheric and mesospheric ozone over Bern, Switzerland

The ground-based radiometer GROMOS, stationed in Bern (47.95° N, 7.44° E), Switzerland, has a unique dataset: it obtains ozone profiles from November 1994 to present with a time resolution of 30 min and equal quality during night- and daytime. Here, we derive a monthly climatology of the daily ozone cycle from 17 yr of GROMOS observation. We present the diurnal ozone variation of the stratosphere and mesosphere. Characterizing the diurnal cycle of stratospheric ozone is important for correct trend estimates of the ozone layer derived from satellite observations. The diurnal ozone cycle from GROMOS is compared to two models: The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and the Hamburg Model of Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA). Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS) ozone data, from night- and daytime overpasses over Bern, have also been included in the comparison. Generally, observation and models show good qualitative agreement: in the lower mesosphere, daytime ozone is for both GROMOS and models around 25% less than nighttime ozone (reference is 22:30–01:30). In the stratosphere, ozone reaches its maximum in the afternoon showing values several percent larger than the midnight value. It is important that diurnal ozone variations of this order are taken into account when merging different data sets for the derivation of long-term ozone trends in the stratosphere. Further, GROMOS and models indicate a seasonal behavior of daily ozone variations in the stratosphere with a larger afternoon maximum during daytime in summer than in winter. At 0.35 hPa, observations from GROMOS and Aura/MLS show a seasonal pattern in diurnal ozone variations with larger relative amplitudes during daytime in winter (−25 ± 5%) than in summer (−18 ± 4%) (compared to mean values around midnight). For the first time, a time series of the diurnal variations in ozone is presented: 17 yr of GROMOS data show strong interannual variations in the diurnal ozone cycle for both the stratosphere and the mesosphere. There are some indications that strong temperature tides can suppress the diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone via the anticorrelation of temperature and ozone. That means the spatio-temporal variability of solar thermal tides seems to affect the diurnal cycle of stratospheric ozone.

A climatology of the diurnal variations of stratospheric and mesospheric ozone over Bern, Switzerland

The ground-based radiometer GROMOS, stationed in Bern (47.95° N, 7.44° E), Switzerland, has a unique dataset: it obtains ozone profiles from November 1994 to present with a time resolution of 30 min and equal quality during night- and daytime. Here, we derive a monthly climatology of the daily ozone cycle from 17 yr of GROMOS observation. We present the diurnal ozone variation of the stratosphere and mesosphere. Characterizing the diurnal cycle of stratospheric ozone is important for correct trend estimates of the ozone layer derived from satellite observations. The diurnal ozone cycle from GROMOS is compared to two models: The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and the Hamburg Model of Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA). Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS) ozone data, from night- and daytime overpasses over Bern, have also been included in the comparison. Generally, observation and models show good qualitative agreement: in the lower mesosphere, daytime ozone is for both GROMOS and models around 25% less than nighttime ozone (reference is 22:30–01:30). In the stratosphere, ozone reaches its maximum in the afternoon showing values several percent larger than the midnight value. It is important that diurnal ozone variations of this order are taken into account when merging different data sets for the derivation of long-term ozone trends in the stratosphere. Further, GROMOS and models indicate a seasonal behavior of daily ozone variations in the stratosphere with a larger afternoon maximum during daytime in summer than in winter. At 0.35 hPa, observations from GROMOS and Aura/MLS show a seasonal pattern in diurnal ozone variations with larger relative amplitudes during daytime in winter (−25 ± 5%) than in summer (−18 ± 4%) (compared to mean values around midnight). For the first time, a time series of the diurnal variations in ozone is presented: 17 yr of GROMOS data show strong interannual variations in the diurnal ozone cycle for both the stratosphere and the mesosphere. There are some indications that strong temperature tides can suppress the diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone via the anticorrelation of temperature and ozone. That means the spatio-temporal variability of solar thermal tides seems to affect the diurnal cycle of stratospheric ozone.

Matrix models for quantifying competitive intransitivity from species abundance data

In a network of competing species, a competitive intransitivity occurs when the ranking of competitive abilities does not follow a linear hierarchy (A > B > C but C > A). A variety of mathematical models suggests that intransitive networks can prevent or slow down competitive exclusion and maintain biodiversity by enhancing species coexistence. However, it has been difficult to assess empirically the relative importance of intransitive competition because a large number of pairwise species competition experiments are needed to construct a competition matrix that is used to parameterize existing models. Here we introduce a statistical framework for evaluating the contribution of intransitivity to community structure using species abundance matrices that are commonly generated from replicated sampling of species assemblages. We provide metrics and analytical methods for using abundance matrices to estimate species competition and patch transition matrices by using reverse-engineering and a colonization-competition model. These matrices provide complementary metrics to estimate the degree of intransitivity in the competition network of the sampled communities. Benchmark tests reveal that the proposed methods could successfully detect intransitive competition networks, even in the absence of direct measures of pairwise competitive strength. To illustrate the approach, we analyzed patterns of abundance and biomass of five species of necrophagous Diptera and eight species of their hymenopteran parasitoids that co-occur in beech forests in Germany. We found evidence for a strong competitive hierarchy within communities of flies and parasitoids. However, for parasitoids, there was a tendency towards increasing intransitivity in higher weight classes, which represented larger resource patches. These tests provide novel methods for empirically estimating the degree of intransitivity in competitive networks from observational datasets. They can be applied to experimental measures of pairwise species interactions, as well as to spatio-temporal samples of assemblages in homogenous environments or environmental gradients.

A 49 year hindcast of surface winds over the Iberian Peninsula

The use of hindcast climatic data is quite extended for multiple applications. However, this approach needs the support of a validation process to allow its drawbacks and, therefore, confidence levels to be assessed. In this work, the strategy relies on an hourly wind database resulting from a dynamical downscaling experiment, with a spatial resolution of 10 km, covering the Iberian Peninsula (IP), driven by the ERA40 reanalysis (1959–2001) extended by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) analysis (2002–2007) and comprising two main steps. Initially, the skill of the simulation is evaluated comparing the quality-tested observational database (Lorente-Plazas et al., 2014) at local and regional scales. The results show that the model is able to portray the main features of the wind over the IP: annual cycles, wind roses, spatial and temporal variability, as well as the response to different circulation types. In addition, there is a significant added value of the simulation with respect to driving conditions, especially in regions with a complex orography. However, some problems are evident, the major drawback being the systematic overestimation of the wind speed, which is mainly attributed to a missrepresentation of frictional forces. The model skill is also lower along the Mediterranean coast and for the Pyrenees. In a second phase, the high spatio-temporal resolution of the pseudo-real wind database is used to explore the limitations of the observational database. It is shown that missing values do not affect the characterisation of the wind climate over the IP, while the length of the observational period (6 years) is sufficient for most regions, with only a few exceptions. The spatial distribution of the observational sampling schemes should be enhanced to improve the correct assessment of all IP wind regimes, particularly in some mountainous areas.

European summer temperatures since Roman times

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June–August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951–2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986–2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850–2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.

Lake-effect snow as the dominant control of mesic-forest distribution in Michigan, USA

1Recent studies demonstrated the sensitivity of northern forest ecosystems to changes in the amount and duration of snow cover at annual to decadal time scales. However, the consequences of snowfall variability remain uncertain for ecological variables operating at longer time scales, especially the distributions of forest communities. 2The Great Lakes region of North America offers a unique setting to examine the long-term effects of variable snowfall on forest communities. Lake-effect snow produces a three-fold gradient in annual snowfall over tens of kilometres, and dramatic edaphic variations occur among landform types resulting from Quaternary glaciations. We tested the hypothesis that these factors interact to control the distributions of mesic (dominated by Acer saccharum, Tsuga canadensis and Fagus grandifolia) and xeric forests (dominated by Pinus and Quercus spp.) in northern Lower Michigan. 3We compiled pre-European-settlement vegetation data and overlaid these data with records of climate, water balance and soil, onto Landtype Association polygons in a geographical information system. We then used multivariate adaptive regression splines to model the abundance of mesic vegetation in relation to environmental controls. 4Snowfall is the most predictive among five variables retained by our model, and it affects model performance 29% more than soil texture, the second most important variable. The abundance of mesic trees is high on fine-textured soils regardless of snowfall, but it increases with snowfall on coarse-textured substrates. Lake-effect snowfall also determines the species composition within mesic forests. The weighted importance of A. saccharum is significantly greater than of T. canadensis or F. grandifolia within the lake-effect snowbelt, whereas T. canadensis is more plentiful outside the snowbelt. These patterns are probably driven by the influence of snowfall on soil moisture, nutrient availability and fire return intervals. 5Our results imply that a key factor dictating the spatio-temporal patterns of forest communities in the vast region around the Great Lakes is how the lake-effect snowfall regime responds to global change. Snowfall reductions will probably cause a major decrease in the abundance of ecologically and economically important species, such as A. saccharum.

Regulatory mechanism of the light-activable allosteric switch LOV-TAP for the control of DNA binding: a computer simulation study

The spatio-temporal control of gene expression is fundamental to elucidate cell proliferation and deregulation phenomena in living systems. Novel approaches based on light-sensitive multiprotein complexes have recently been devised, showing promising perspectives for the noninvasive and reversible modulation of the DNA-transcriptional activity in vivo. This has lately been demonstrated in a striking way through the generation of the artificial protein construct light-oxygen-voltage (LOV)-tryptophan-activated protein (TAP), in which the LOV-2-Jα photoswitch of phototropin1 from Avena sativa (AsLOV2-Jα) has been ligated to the tryptophan-repressor (TrpR) protein from Escherichia coli. Although tremendous progress has been achieved on the generation of such protein constructs, a detailed understanding of their functioning as opto-genetical tools is still in its infancy. Here, we elucidate the early stages of the light-induced regulatory mechanism of LOV-TAP at the molecular level, using the noninvasive molecular dynamics simulation technique. More specifically, we find that Cys450-FMN-adduct formation in the AsLOV2-Jα-binding pocket after photoexcitation induces the cleavage of the peripheral Jα-helix from the LOV core, causing a change of its polarity and electrostatic attraction of the photoswitch onto the DNA surface. This goes along with the flexibilization through unfolding of a hairpin-like helix-loop-helix region interlinking the AsLOV2-Jα- and TrpR-domains, ultimately enabling the condensation of LOV-TAP onto the DNA surface. By contrast, in the dark state the AsLOV2-Jα photoswitch remains inactive and exerts a repulsive electrostatic force on the DNA surface. This leads to a distortion of the hairpin region, which finally relieves its tension by causing the disruption of LOV-TAP from the DNA.

Species mobility and frequency dynamics in a Swiss limestone grassland

Community dynamics in a calcareous grassland (Mesobrometum) in Egerkingen (Jura mountains, Switzerland) were investigated for 53 non-woody species in 25 1-m2 plots over 6 years. 50 0.0 1-m2 subplots per plot were recorded. The derived variables were spatial frequency, temporal frequency, frequency fluctuation, turnover, and cumulative frequency (each species), and cumulative species richness (all species). Spectra for 53 species of all variables were different for the two investigated spatial scales (0.0 1 m2, 1 m2). The comparison with other investigations of similar grass lands showed that the behaviour of some species is specific for this type of vegetation in general (e.g. Achillea millefolium, Arrhenatherum elatius, Bromus erectus ), but most species behaved in a stand-specific way, i.e. they may play another (similar or completely different) role in another grassland stand. Six spatio-temporal patterns were defined across species. To understand community dynamics, not only the dynamics of mobility but also of frequency fluctuations and spatial distribution of the species are fundamental. In addition, the understanding of temporal behaviour of all species present should be included. Averages always hide important information of vegetation dynamics, as was shown by the present investigation.

BOLD correlates of EEG alpha phase-locking and the fMRI default mode network

Phase locking or synchronization of brain areas is a key concept of information processing in the brain. Synchronous oscillations have been observed and investigated extensively in EEG during the past decades. EEG oscillations occur over a wide frequency range. In EEG, a prominent type of oscillations is alpha-band activity, present typically when a subject is awake, but at rest with closed eyes. The spectral power of alpha rhythms has recently been investigated in simultaneous EEG/fMRI recordings, establishing a wide-range cortico-thalamic network. However, spectral power and synchronization are different measures and little is known about the correlations between BOLD effects and EEG synchronization. Interestingly, the fMRI BOLD signal also displays synchronous oscillations across different brain regions. These oscillations delineate so-called resting state networks (RSNs) that resemble the correlation patterns of simultaneous EEG/fMRI recordings. However, the nature of these BOLD oscillations and their relations to EEG activity is still poorly understood. One hypothesis is that the subunits constituting a specific RSN may be coordinated by different EEG rhythms. In this study we report on evidence for this hypothesis. The BOLD correlates of global EEG synchronization (GFS) in the alpha frequency band are located in brain areas involved in specific RSNs, e.g. the 'default mode network'. Furthermore, our results confirm the hypothesis that specific RSNs are organized by long-range synchronization at least in the alpha frequency band. Finally, we could localize specific areas where the GFS BOLD correlates and the associated RSN overlap. Thus, we claim that not only the spectral dynamics of EEG are important, but also their spatio-temporal organization.

Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia

Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between ad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.

Effects of amygdala-hippocampal stimulation on synchronization.

Changes in EEG synchronization, i.e., spatio-temporal correlation, with amygdala-hippocampal stimulation were studied in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy. Synchronization was evaluated for high frequency, 130Hz, pseudo-monophasic or biphasic charge-balanced pulses. Desynchronization was most frequently induced by stimulation. There was no correlation between the changes in synchronization and the changes in interictal epileptiform discharge rates. Changes in synchronization do not appear yet to be a marker of stimulation efficiency in reducing seizures.

A multiplex PCR for the simultaneous detection and genotyping of the Echinococcus granulosus complex.

Echinococcus granulosus is characterized by high intra-specific variability (genotypes G1-G10) and according to the new molecular phylogeny of the genus Echinococcus, the E. granulosus complex has been divided into E. granulosus sensu stricto (G1-G3), E. equinus (G4), E. ortleppi (G5), and E. canadensis (G6-G10). The molecular characterization of E. granulosus isolates is fundamental to understand the spatio-temporal epidemiology of this complex in many endemic areas with the simultaneous occurrence of different Echinococcus species and genotypes. To simplify the genotyping of the E. granulosus complex we developed a single-tube multiplex PCR (mPCR) allowing three levels of discrimination: (i) Echinococcus genus, (ii) E. granulosus complex in common, and (iii) the specific genotype within the E. granulosus complex. The methodology was established with known DNA samples of the different strains/genotypes, confirmed on 42 already genotyped samples (Spain: 22 and Bulgaria: 20) and then successfully applied on 153 unknown samples (Tunisia: 114, Algeria: 26 and Argentina: 13). The sensitivity threshold of the mPCR was found to be 5 ng Echinoccoccus DNA in a mixture of up to 1 µg of foreign DNA and the specificity was 100% when template DNA from closely related members of the genus Taenia was used. Additionally to DNA samples, the mPCR can be carried out directly on boiled hydatid fluid or on alkaline-lysed frozen or fixed protoscoleces, thus avoiding classical DNA extractions. However, when using Echinococcus eggs obtained from fecal samples of infected dogs, the sensitivity of the mPCR was low (<40%). Thus, except for copro analysis, the mPCR described here has a high potential for a worldwide application in large-scale molecular epidemiological studies on the Echinococcus genus.

Water quality and health in a Sahelian semi-arid urban context: an integrated geographical approach in Nouakchott, Mauritania

Access to sufficient quantities of safe drinking water is a human right. Moreover, access to clean water is of public health relevance, particularly in semi-arid and Sahelian cities due to the risks of water contamination and transmission of water-borne diseases. We conducted a study in Nouakchott, the capital of Mauritania, to deepen the understanding of diarrhoeal incidence in space and time. We used an integrated geographical approach, combining socio-environmental, microbiological and epidemiological data from various sources, including spatially explicit surveys, laboratory analysis of water samples and reported diarrhoeal episodes. A geospatial technique was applied to determine the environmental and microbiological risk factors that govern diarrhoeal transmission. Statistical and cartographic analyses revealed concentration of unimproved sources of drinking water in the most densely populated areas of the city, coupled with a daily water allocation below the recommended standard of 20 l per person. Bacteriological analysis indicated that 93% of the non-piped water sources supplied at water points were contaminated with 10-80 coliform bacteria per 100 ml. Diarrhoea was the second most important disease reported at health centres, accounting for 12.8% of health care service consultations on average. Diarrhoeal episodes were concentrated in municipalities with the largest number of contaminated water sources. Environmental factors (e.g. lack of improved water sources) and bacteriological aspects (e.g. water contamination with coliform bacteria) are the main drivers explaining the spatio-temporal distribution of diarrhoea. We conclude that integrating environmental, microbiological and epidemiological variables with statistical regression models facilitates risk profiling of diarrhoeal diseases. Modes of water supply and water contamination were the main drivers of diarrhoea in this semi-arid urban context of Nouakchott, and hence require a strategy to improve water quality at the various levels of the supply chain.

The water vapour flux above Switzerland and its role in the August 2005 extreme precipitation and flooding

The water budget approach is applied to an atmospheric box above Switzerland (hereafter referred to as the “Swiss box”) to quantify the atmospheric water vapour flux using ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses. The results confirm that the water vapour flux through the Swiss box is highly temporally variable, ranging from 1 to 5 · 107 kg/s during settled anticyclonic weather, but increasing in size by a factor of ten or more during high speed currents of water vapour. Overall, Switzerland and the Swiss box “import” more water vapour than it “exports”, but the amount gained remains only a small fraction (1% to 5%) of the total available water vapour passing by. High inward water vapour fluxes are not necessarily linked to high precipitation episodes. The water vapour flux during the August 2005 floods, which caused severe damage in central Switzerland, is examined and an assessment is made of the computed water vapour fluxes compared to high spatio-temporal rain gauge and radar observations. About 25% of the incoming water vapour flux was stored in Switzerland. The computed water vapour fluxes from ECMWF data compare well with the mean rain gauge observations and the combined rain-gauge radar precipitation products.

Ancient DNA, a Neolithic legging from the Swiss Alps and the early history of goat

Ancient DNA from a Neolithic legging (1st half of the 3rd millennium BC) found at Lenk, Schnidejoch (2750 m a.sl.) in the Swiss Alps has demonstrated, that modern distribution of genetic variation does not reflect past spatio-temporal signatures. The legging was made from the skin of a domestic goat (Capra hircus), belonging to the caprine haplogroup B1, which is marginal in Europe today, but represents a third highly diverse goat haplogroup entering Europe already in the Neolithic. Population expansion of lineage B therefore happened more than 4500 years ago, but their members were at some point almost completely replaced by goats of today's common A and C haplogroups.