Measuring Consumers' Willingness to Pay. Which Method fits best?

Gauging the maximum willingness to pay (WTP) of a product accurately is a critical success factor that determines not only market performance but also financial results. A number of approaches have therefore been developed to accurately estimate consumers’ willingness to pay. Here, four commonly used measurement approaches are compared using real purchase data as a benchmark. The relative strengths of each method are analyzed on the basis of statistical criteria and, more importantly, on their potential to predict managerially relevant criteria such as optimal price, quantity and profit. The results show a slight advantage of incentive-aligned approaches though the market settings need to be considered to choose the best-fitting procedure.

Right ventricle best predicts the race performance in amateur ironman athletes

PURPOSE The ironman (IM) triathlon is a popular ultraendurance competition, consisting of 3.8 km of swimming, 180.2 km of cycling, and 42.2 km of running. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictors of IM race time, comparing echocardiographic findings, anthropometric measures, and training characteristics. METHODS Amateur IM athletes (ATHL) participating in the Zurich IM race in 2010 were included. Participants were examined the day before the race by a comprehensive echocardiographic examination. Moreover, anthropometric measurements were obtained the same day. During the 3 months before the race, each IM-ATHL maintained a detailed training diary. Recorded data were related to total IM race time. RESULTS Thirty-eight IM finishers (mean ± SD age = 38 ± 9 yr, 32 men [84%]) were evaluated. Total race time was 684 ± 89 min (mean ± SD). For right ventricular fractional area change (45% ± 7%, Spearman ρ = -0.33, P = 0.05), a weak correlation with race time was observed. Race performance exhibited stronger associations with percent body fat (15.2 ± 5.6%, ρ = 0.56, P = 0.001), speed in running training (11.7 ± 1.2 km · h(-1), ρ = -0.52, P = 0.002), and left ventricular myocardial mass index (98 ± 24 g · m(-2), ρ = -0.42, P = 0.009). The strongest association was found between race time and right ventricular end-diastolic area (22 ± 4 cm2, ρ = -0.64, P < 0.0001). In multivariate analysis, right ventricular end-diastolic area (β = -16.7, 95% confidence interval = -27.3 to -6.1, P = 0.003) and percent body fat (β = 6.8, 95% confidence interval = 1.1-12.6, P = 0.02) were independently predictive of IM race time. CONCLUSIONS In amateur IM-ATHL, RV end-diastolic area and percent body fat were independently related to race performance. RV end-diastolic area was the strongest predictor of race time. The role of the RV in endurance exercise may thus be more important than previously thought and needs to be further studied.

Good just isn't Good enough. Best System Probabilities and the Foundations of Statistical Mechanics

Statistical physicists assume a probability distribution over micro-states to explain thermodynamic behavior. The question of this paper is whether these probabilities are part of a best system and can thus be interpreted as Humean chances. I consider two strategies, viz. a globalist as suggested by Loewer, and a localist as advocated by Frigg and Hoefer. Both strategies fail because the system they are part of have rivals that are roughly equally good, while ontic probabilities should be part of a clearly winning system. I conclude with the diagnosis that well-defined micro-probabilities under-estimate the robust character of explanations in statistical physics.

The role of diameter versus volume as the best prognostic measurement of abdominal aortic aneurysms

Accurate measurement of abdominal aortic aneurysms is necessary to predict rupture risk and, more recently, to follow aneurysm sac behavior following endovascular repair. Up until this point, aneurysm diameter has been the most common measurement utilized for these purposes. Although aneurysm diameter is predictive of rupture, accurate measurement is hindered by such factors as aortic tortuosity and interobserver variability, and it does not account for variations in morphology such as saccular aneurysms. Additionally, decreases in aneurysm diameter do not completely describe the somewhat complex remodeling seen following endovascular repair of aortic aneurysms. Measurement of aneurysm volume has the advantage of describing aneurysm morphology in a multidimensional fashion, but it has not been readily available or easily measured until recently. This has changed with the introduction of commercially available software tools that permit quicker and easier to perform volume measurements. Whether it is time for volume to replace, or compliment, diameter is the subject of the current debate.

Saddlepoint approximations to sensitivities of tail probabilities of random sums and comparisons with Monte Carlo estimators

This article proposes computing sensitivities of upper tail probabilities of random sums by the saddlepoint approximation. The considered sensitivity is the derivative of the upper tail probability with respect to the parameter of the summation index distribution. Random sums with Poisson or Geometric distributed summation indices and Gamma or Weibull distributed summands are considered. The score method with importance sampling is considered as an alternative approximation. Numerical studies show that the saddlepoint approximation and the method of score with importance sampling are very accurate. But the saddlepoint approximation is substantially faster than the score method with importance sampling. Thus, the suggested saddlepoint approximation can be conveniently used in various scientific problems.

Importance sampling approximations to various probabilities of ruin of spectrally negative Lévy risk processes

This article provides importance sampling algorithms for computing the probabilities of various types ruin of spectrally negative Lévy risk processes, which are ruin over the infinite time horizon, ruin within a finite time horizon and ruin past a finite time horizon. For the special case of the compound Poisson process perturbed by diffusion, algorithms for computing probabilities of ruins by creeping (i.e. induced by the diffusion term) and by jumping (i.e. by a claim amount) are provided. It is shown that these algorithms have either bounded relative error or logarithmic efficiency, as t,x→∞t,x→∞, where t>0t>0 is the time horizon and x>0x>0 is the starting point of the risk process, with y=t/xy=t/x held constant and assumed either below or above a certain constant.

Preinterventional screening of the TAVI patient: how to choose the suitable patient and the best procedure.

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is a novel therapy, which has transformed the management of inoperable patients presenting with symptomatic severe aortic stenosis (AS). It is also a proven and less invasive alternative therapeutic option for high-risk symptomatic patients presenting with severe AS who are otherwise eligible for surgical aortic valve replacement. Patient age is not strictly a limitation for TAVI but since this procedure is currently restricted to high-risk and inoperable patients, it follows that most patients selected for TAVI are at an advanced age. Patient frailty and co-morbidities need to be assessed and a clinical judgment made on whether the patient will gain a measureable improvement in their quality of life. Risk stratification has assumed a central role in selecting suitable patients and surgical risk algorithms have proven helpful in this regard. However, limitations exist with these risk models, which must be understood in the context of TAVI. When making final treatment decisions, it is essential that a collaborative multidisciplinary "heart team" be involved and this is stressed in the most recent guidelines of the European Society of Cardiology. Choosing the best procedure is contingent upon anatomical feasibility, and multimodality imaging has emerged as an integral component of the pre-interventional screening process in this regard. The transfemoral route is now considered the default approach although vascular complications remain a concern. A minimal vessel diameter of 6 mm is required for currently commercial available vascular introducer sheaths. Several alternative access routes are available to choose from when confronted with difficult iliofemoral anatomy such as severe peripheral vascular disease or diffuse circumferential vessel calcification. The degree of aortic valve leaflet and annular calcification also needs to be assessed as the latter is a risk factor for post-procedural paravalvular aortic regurgitation. The ultimate goal of patient selection is to achieve the highest procedural success rate while minimizing complications and to choose patients most likely to derive tangible benefit from this procedure.