Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound

We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007–09 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. We identify a “pure” spread shock defined as a shock that leaves the policy rate unchanged, which allows us to characterize the macroeconomic consequences of a decline in the yield spread induced by central banks’ asset purchases within an environment in which the policy rate is constrained by the effective zero lower bound. Two key findings stand out. First, compressions in the long-term yield spread exert a powerful effect on both output growth and inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the Federal Reserve’s and the Bank of England’s asset purchase programs on long-term yield spreads, our counterfactual simulations suggest that U.S. and U.K. unconventional monetary policy actions have averted significant risks both of deflation and of output collapses comparable to those that took place during the Great Depression.

Adaptive evolution during an ongoing range expansion: the invasive bank vole (Myodes glareolus) in Ireland

Range expansions are extremely common, but have only recently begun to attract attention in terms of their genetic consequences. As populations expand, demes at the wave front experience strong genetic drift, which is expected to reduce genetic diversity and potentially cause ‘allele surfing’, where alleles may become fixed over a wide geographical area even if their effects are deleterious. Previous simulation models show that range expansions can generate very strong selective gradients on dispersal, reproduction, competition and immunity. To investigate the effects of range expansion on genetic diversity and adaptation, we studied the population genomics of the bank vole (Myodes glareolus) in Ireland. The bank vole was likely introduced in the late 1920s and is expanding its range at a rate of ~2.5 km/year. Using genotyping-by-sequencing, we genotyped 281 bank voles at 5979 SNP loci. Fourteen sample sites were arranged in three transects running from the introduction site to the wave front of the expansion. We found significant declines in genetic diversity along all three transects. However, there was no evidence that sites at the wave front had accumulated more deleterious mutations. We looked for outlier loci with strong correlations between allele frequency and distance from the introduction site, where the direction of correlation was the same in all three transects. Amongst these outliers, we found significant enrichment for genic SNPs, suggesting the action of selection. Candidates for selection included several genes with immunological functions and several genes that could influence behaviour.

Fruit production in three masting tree species does not rely on stored carbon reserves

Fruiting is typically considered to massively burden the seasonal carbon budget of trees. The cost of reproduction has therefore been suggested as a proximate factor explaining observed mast-fruiting patterns. Here, we used a large-scale, continuous 13C labeling of mature, deciduous trees in a temperate Swiss forest to investigate to what extent fruit formation in three species with masting reproduction behavior (Carpinus betulus, Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea) relies on the import of stored carbon reserves. Using a free-air CO2 enrichment system, we exposed trees to 13C-depleted CO2 during 8 consecutive years. By the end of this experiment, carbon reserve pools had significantly lower δ13C values compared to control trees. δ13C analysis of new biomass during the first season after termination of the CO2 enrichment allowed us to distinguish the sources of built-in carbon (old carbon reserves vs. current assimilates). Flowers and expanding leaves carried a significant 13C label from old carbon stores. In contrast, fruits and vegetative infructescence tissues were exclusively produced from current, unlabeled photoassimilates in all three species, including F. sylvatica, which had a strong masting season. Analyses of δ13C in purified starch from xylem of fruit-bearing shoots revealed a complete turn-over of starch during the season, likely due to its usage for bud break. This study is the first to directly demonstrate that fruiting is independent from old carbon reserves in masting trees, with significant implications for mechanistic models that explain mast seeding.

Academic cooperation to foster research and advocacy competences in the occupied Palestinian territory (West Bank)

Palestinians living in the West Bank, a territory occupied by the State of Israel according to International Law, face deprived access to land and a limited ability to move freely which pertains to the presence of Israeli settlements and other infrastructure (closures, restricted or forbidden roads, etc.). This confinement has significant impacts on their economic and social livelihoods, and it is even worsening with the on-going construction of a 709 km long Barrier which mainly runs inside the West Bank. With regard to this situation, there is a clear need to strengthen the capacity of civil society and its representatives to apply sound research processes as a basis for improved advocacy for Palestinian human rights. Monitoring processes and tools are needed to assess the impacts of the Palestinians’ confinement, particularly in relation to the Barrier’s construction. Reliable data has also to be collected, managed, and above all, shared. These challenges have been addressed within the Academic Cooperation Palestine Project (ACPP) that brings together academic partners from the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) West Bank (WB), and Switzerland as well as other international academic institutions and Palestinian governmental and non-governmental agencies. ACPP started in early 2011 and is designed as a large cooperation networking platform involving researchers, students, public servants and experts from the oPt WB. A large set of actions have already been developed during the first year of the project, including courses, training, and research actions. First relevant results and impacts of the different actions are presented in this paper. Taken as a whole, the project produces valuable results for all partners: useful advocacy material for the Palestinian partners, and a unique “real-scale laboratory” where investigations are jointly conducted to develop novel confinement and change indicators.

Reprint of "Seed availability in hay meadows: Land-use intensification promotes seed rain but not the persistent seed bank''

Intensification of land use in semi-natural hay meadows has resulted in a decrease in species diversity. This is often thought to be caused by the reduced establishment of plant species due to high competition for light under conditions of increased productivity. Sowing experiments in grasslands have found reliable evidence that diversity can also be constrained by seed availability, implying that processes influencing the production and persistence of seeds may be important for the functioning of ecosystems. So far, the effects of land-use intensification on the seed rain and the persistence of seeds in the soil have been unclear. We selected six pairs of extensively managed (Festuco-Brometea) and intensively managed (Arrhenatheretalia) grassland with traditional late cutting regimes across Switzerland and covering an annual productivity gradient in the range 176-1211 gm(-2). In each grassland community, we estimated seed rain and seed bank using eight pooled seed-trap or topsoil samples of 89 cm(2) in each of six plots representing an area of c. 150 m(2). The seed traps were established in spring 2010 and collected simultaneously with soil cores after an exposure of c. three months. We applied the emergence method in a cold frame over eight months to estimate density of viable seeds. With community productivity reflecting land-use intensification, the density and species richness in the seed rain increased, while mean seed size diminished and the proportions of persistent seeds and of species with persistent seeds in the topsoil declined. Stronger limitation of seeds in extensively managed semi-natural grasslands can explain the fact that such grasslands are not always richer in species than more intensively managed ones. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

After Bali: WTO Rules Applying to Public Food Reserves

Once more, agriculture threatened to prevent all progress in multilateral trade rule-making at the Ninth WTO Ministerial Conference in December 2013. But this time, the “magic of Bali” worked. After the clock had been stopped mainly because of the food security file, the ministers adopted a comprehensive package of decisions and declarations mainly in respect of development issues. Five are about agriculture. Decision 38 on Public Stockholding for Food Security Purposes contains a “peace clause” which will now be shielding certain stockpile programmes from subsidy complaints in formal litigation. This article provides contextual background and analyses this decision from a legal perspective. It finds that, at best, Decision 38 provides a starting point for a WTO Work Programme for food security, for review at the Eleventh Ministerial Conference which will probably take place in 2017. At worst, it may unduly widen the limited window for government-financed competition existing under present rules in the WTO Agreement on Agriculture – yet without increasing global food security or even guaranteeing that no subsidy claims will be launched, or entertained, under the WTO dispute settlement mechanism. Hence, the Work Programme should find more coherence between farm support and socio-economic and trade objectives when it comes to stockpiles. This also encompasses a review of the present WTO rules applying to other forms of food reserves and to regional or “virtual” stockpiles. Another “low hanging fruit” would be a decision to exempt food aid purchases from export restrictions.