Arctic Winds in the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis”

Climate in the European part of the Arctic underwent a rapid warming between the 1910s and the 1930s. Previous studies have addressed the role of atmospheric circulation in this period based on geopotential height fields because observations of upper-level winds in the Arctic are rare. Here we analyse winds over the Arctic and specifically over Spitsbergen in the “Twentieth Century Reanalyses” (20CR). We compare in situ upper-air wind measurements performed in 1912 and 1913 in Spitsbergen with six-hourly 20CR data. Furthermore, we compare monthly-to-seasonal 20CR winds at 700 hPa over the European Arctic with statistically reconstructed winds at 3 km altitude. Finally, we analyse long-term trends in Arctic winds in 20CR. The general agreement between observed upper-air winds and 20CR on the day-to-day scale is rather poor, which is not surprising given the paucity of observations in the Arctic at that time that constrain 20CR. In contrast, the seasonally averaged winds (which represent a larger spatial scale) in 20CR compare well with statistically reconstructed winds. The analysis of long term near-surface wind time series in 20CR shows arguably artificial trends from 1871 to around the 1950s over sparsely observed regions, particularly oceanic regions. Densely observed regions such as Europe or the USA show no such trends. This analysis shows that great care needs to be taken when working with 20CR in the Arctic and other sparsely observed regions.

Identity, Philosophy, and the Problem of Armenian History in the Sixth Century

History and Identity in the Late Antique Near East gathers together the work of distinguished historians and early career scholars with a broad range of expertise to investigate the significance of newly emerged, or recently resurrected, ethnic identities on the borders of the eastern Mediterranean world. It focuses on the "long late antiquity" from the eve of the Arab conquest of the Roman East to the formation of the Abbasid caliphate. The first half of the book offers papers on the Christian Orient on the cusp of the Islamic invasions. These papers discuss how Christians negotiated the end of Roman power, whether in the selective use of the patristic past to create confessional divisions or the emphasis of the shared philosophical legacy of the Greco-Roman world. The second half of the book considers Muslim attempts to negotiate the pasts of the conquered lands of the Near East, where the Christian histories of Hira or Egypt were used to create distinctive regional identities for Arab settlers. Like the first half, this section investigates the redeployment of a shared history, this time the historical imagination of the Qu'ran and the era of the first caliphs. All the papers in the volume bring together studies of the invention of the past across traditional divides between disciplines, placing the re-assessment of the past as a central feature of the long late antiquity. As a whole, History and Identity in the Late Antique Near East represents a distinctive contribution to recent writing on late antiquity, due to its cultural breadth, its interdisciplinary focus, and its novel definition of late antiquity itself.

Summer temperature in the eastern part of southern South America: its variability in the twentieth century and a teleconnection with Oceania

The 1907–2001 summer-to-summer surface air temperature variability in the eastern part of southern South America (SSA, partly including Patagonia) is analysed. Based on records from instruments located next to the Atlantic Ocean (36°S–55°S), we define indices for the interannual and interdecadal timescales. The main interdecadal mode reflects the late-1970s cold-to-warm climate shift in the region and a warm-to-cold transition during early 1930s. Although it has been in phase with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index since the 1960s, they diverged in the preceding decades. The main interannual variability index exhibits high spectral power at ~3.4 years and is representative of temperature variability in a broad area in the southern half of the continent. Eleven-years running correlation coefficients between this index and December-to-February (DJF) Niño3.4 show significant decadal fluctuations, out-of-phase with the running correlation with a DJF index of the Southern Annular Mode. The main interannual variability index is associated with a barotropic wavetrain-like pattern extending over the South Pacific from Oceania to SSA. During warm (cold) summers in SSA, significant anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies tend to predominate over eastern Australia, to the north of the Ross Sea, and to the east of SSA, whereas anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation is observed over New Zealand and west of SSA. This teleconnection links warm (cold) SSA anomalies with dry (wet) summers in eastern Australia. The covariability seems to be influenced by the characteristics of tropical forcing; indeed, a disruption has been observed since late 1970s, presumably due to the PDO warm phase.