Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound

We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007–09 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. We identify a “pure” spread shock defined as a shock that leaves the policy rate unchanged, which allows us to characterize the macroeconomic consequences of a decline in the yield spread induced by central banks’ asset purchases within an environment in which the policy rate is constrained by the effective zero lower bound. Two key findings stand out. First, compressions in the long-term yield spread exert a powerful effect on both output growth and inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the Federal Reserve’s and the Bank of England’s asset purchase programs on long-term yield spreads, our counterfactual simulations suggest that U.S. and U.K. unconventional monetary policy actions have averted significant risks both of deflation and of output collapses comparable to those that took place during the Great Depression.

The loss of trust in the European Union during the great recession since 2007: The role of heuristics from the national political system

How can we explain the decline in support for the European Union (EU) and the idea of European integration after the onset of the great recession in the fall of 2007? Did the economic crisis and the austerity policies that the EU imposed—in tandem with the IMF—on several member countries help cause this drop? While there is some evidence for this direct effect of EU policies, we find that the most significant determinant of trust and support for the EU remains the level of trust in national governments. Based on cue theory and using concepts of diffuse and specific support, we find that support for the EU is derived from evaluations of national politics and policy, which Europeans know far better than the remote political system of the EU. This effect, however, is somewhat muted for those sophisticated Europeans that are more knowledgeable about the EU and are able to form opinions about it independently of the national contexts in which they live. We also find that the recent economic crisis has led to a discernible increase in the number of those who are disillusioned with politics both at the national and the supranational level. We analyze 133 national surveys from 27 EU countries by estimating a series of cross-classified multilevel logistic regression models.

The Great Silk Alternative Multiple Co-Evolution of Web Loss and Sticky Hairs in Spiders

Spiders are the most important terrestrial predators among arthropods. Their ecological success is reflected by a high biodiversity and the conquest of nearly every terrestrial habitat. Spiders are closely associated with silk, a material, often seen to be responsible for their great ecological success and gaining high attention in life sciences. However, it is often overlooked that more than half of all Recent spider species have abandoned web building or never developed such an adaptation. These species must have found other, more economic solutions for prey capture and retention, compensating the higher energy costs of increased locomotion activity. Here we show that hairy adhesive pads (scopulae) are closely associated with the convergent evolution of a vagrant life style, resulting in highly diversified lineages of at least, equal importance as the derived web building taxa. Previous studies often highlighted the idea that scopulae have the primary function of assisting locomotion, neglecting the fact that only the distal most pads (claw tufts) are suitable for those purposes. The former observations, that scopulae are used in prey capture, are largely overlooked. Our results suggest the scopulae evolved as a substitute for silk in controlling prey and that the claw tufts are, in most cases, a secondary development. Evolutionary trends towards specialized claw tufts and their composition from a low number of enlarged setae to a dense array of slender ones, as well as the secondary loss of those pads are discussed further. Hypotheses about the origin of the adhesive setae and their diversification throughout evolution are provided.

Bovine mastitis: the diagnostic properties of a PCR-based assay to monitor the Staphylococcus aureus genotype B status of a herd, using bulk tank milk

Staphylococcus aureus genotype B (GTB) is a contagious mastitis pathogen in cattle, occurring in up to 87% of individuals. Because treatment is generally insufficient, culling is often required, leading to large economic loss in the Swiss dairy industry. As the detection of this pathogen in bulk tank milk (BTM) would greatly facilitate its control, a novel real-time quantitative PCR-based assay for BTM has previously been developed and is now being evaluated for its diagnostic properties at the herd level. Herds were initially classified as to their Staph. aureus GTB status by a reference method. Using BTM and herd pools of single-quarter and 4-quarter milk, the herds were then grouped by the novel assay, and the resulting classifications were compared. A total of 54 dairy herds were evaluated. Using the reference method, 21 herds were found to be GTB positive, whereas 33 were found to be negative. Considering the novel assay using both herd pools, all herds were grouped correctly, resulting in maximal diagnostic sensitivities (100%) and specificities (100%). For BTM samples, diagnostic sensitivities and specificities were 90 and 100%, respectively. Two herds were false negative in BTM, because cows with clinical signs of mastitis were not milked into the tank. Besides its excellent diagnostic properties, the assay is characterized by its low detection level, high efficiency, and its suitability for automation. Using the novel knowledge and assay, eradication of Staph. aureus GTB from a dairy herd may be considered as a realistic goal.

Parasite- and predator-induced maternal effects in the great tit (Parus major)

Both predators and parasites can elicit behavioral and physiological responses in prey and hosts, respectively. These responses may involve the reallocation of resources and may thus limit each other. We investigated the effects of concurrent pre-laying exposure of great tit females (Parus major) to both a simulated predation risk and a nest-based ectoparasite, the hen flea (Ceratophyllus gallinae), on nestling growth and development. We manipulated perceived predation risk using models and vocalizations of sparrowhawks (Accipiter nisus). At the start of incubation, we swapped whole clutches between treated and untreated nests to separate pre-laying maternal effects from posthatching effects. Since costs and benefits of maternal responses to parasites need to be assessed under parasite pressure, we infested half of the rearing nests with hen fleas. Parasites had negative effects on mass gain and wing growth, both via maternal effects and via direct exposure of nestlings, whereas maternal predation risk had no significant effect. The interaction between predator and parasite treatments was not significant and, thus, suggests the absence of a trade-off between the 2 stressors operating at the level of maternal effects. Alternatively, the complexity of the design, despite a relatively large sample size, may have limited the power for detection of this expected trade-off.