Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound

We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007–09 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. We identify a “pure” spread shock defined as a shock that leaves the policy rate unchanged, which allows us to characterize the macroeconomic consequences of a decline in the yield spread induced by central banks’ asset purchases within an environment in which the policy rate is constrained by the effective zero lower bound. Two key findings stand out. First, compressions in the long-term yield spread exert a powerful effect on both output growth and inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the Federal Reserve’s and the Bank of England’s asset purchase programs on long-term yield spreads, our counterfactual simulations suggest that U.S. and U.K. unconventional monetary policy actions have averted significant risks both of deflation and of output collapses comparable to those that took place during the Great Depression.

International horse movements and spread of equine diseases: Equine Infectious Anaemia and Glanders - two examples

International trade with horses is important and continuously increasing. Therefore the risk of spread of infectious diseases is permanently present. Within this context the worldwide situation of equine vector-borne diseases and of other diseases which are notifiable to the World Organisation of Animal Health (OIE), is described. Furthermore it provides estimates of the numbers of horse movements between these countries, as well as information on import requirements and preventive measures for reducing the risk of disease spread. According to TRACES (Trade Control and Expert System of the European Union) data from 2009 and 2010 81 horses per week were imported from North America into Europe, 42 horses per week from South America, 11 horses per week from the North of Africa and the African horse sichness free-zone of South Africa, 28 per week from the Middle East and the rest of Asia and approximately 4 horses per week from Australia / Oceania. Trade within the European Union resulted amongst others in the introduction of Equine Infectious Anaemia (EIA) from Roma- nia into other European countries. Another example is the suspected case of glanders which occurred after importation of horses from Leb- anon via France and Germany into Switzerland in July 2011.

Border tax adjustments: Can energy and carbon taxes be adjusted at the border?

Will die Schweiz mit unilateralen energie- und klimapolitischen Massnahmen ambitionierte Ziele verfolgen, dann erfahren energieintensive Sektoren Nachteile im internationalen Wett- bewerb. Produktionsverlagerungen und „carbon leakage“ sind die Folgen, was nicht im Sinne der Schweizer Wirtschaft und der globalen Klimaziele ist. Mit Grenzausgleichsmassnahmen (BAM) kann die Schweiz ihre energieintensiven Betriebe nicht vor internationalen Wettbe- werbsnachteilen schützen. Weiter kommt hinzu, dass die Einführung von BAM aus rechtli- cher Sicht „riskant“ ist und bei einem Schweizer Alleingang mit hohen Vollzugshürden ge- rechnet werden muss. Für die Schweiz macht eine Einführung von BAM nur im Rahmen ei- ner grösseren Klimakoalition Sinn (bspw. zusammen mit der EU). Alternativen zu BAM sind die einfacher und autonom umsetzbaren Ausnahmeregelungen für energieintensive Betriebe oder Output-based-allocation-Systeme.

Antibiotic resistance spread in food

Nutritive and therapeutic treatment of farm animals with antibiotics, amounting to half of the world's antibiotic output, has selected for resistant bacteria that may contaminate the food produced. Antibiotic-resistant enterococci and staphylococci from animals are found in food when they survive the production processes, as in raw cured sausages and raw milk cheeses1. The broad host ranges of some plasmids and the action of transposons in many bacteria allow antibiotic-resistance genes to be communicated by conjugation between different species and genera2,3. A multi-antibiotic resistance plasmid from a lactococcus found in cheese provides a historical record of such events.

Trends and outcomes in the use of surgery and radiation for the treatment of locally advanced esophageal cancer: a propensity score adjusted analysis of the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results registry from 1998 to 2008

We examined outcomes and trends in surgery and radiation use for patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer, for whom optimal treatment isn't clear. Trends in surgery and radiation for patients with T1-T3N1M0 squamous cell or adenocarcinoma of the mid or distal esophagus in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 1998 to 2008 were analyzed using generalized linear models including year as predictor; Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results doesn't record chemotherapy data. Local treatment was unimodal if patients had only surgery or radiation and bimodal if they had both. Five-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed using propensity-score adjusted Cox proportional-hazard models. Overall 5-year survival for the 3295 patients identified (mean age 65.1 years, standard deviation 11.0) was 18.9% (95% confidence interval: 17.3-20.7). Local treatment was bimodal for 1274 (38.7%) and unimodal for 2021 (61.3%) patients; 1325 (40.2%) had radiation alone and 696 (21.1%) underwent only surgery. The use of bimodal therapy (32.8-42.5%, P = 0.01) and radiation alone (29.3-44.5%, P < 0.001) increased significantly from 1998 to 2008. Bimodal therapy predicted improved CSS (hazard ratios [HR]: 0.68, P < 0.001) and OS (HR: 0.58, P < 0.001) compared with unimodal therapy. For the first 7 months (before survival curve crossing), CSS after radiation therapy alone was similar to surgery alone (HR: 0.86, P = 0.12) while OS was worse for surgery only (HR: 0.70, P = 0.001). However, worse CSS (HR: 1.43, P < 0.001) and OS (HR: 1.46, P < 0.001) after that initial timeframe were found for radiation therapy only. The use of radiation to treat locally advanced mid and distal esophageal cancers increased from 1998 to 2008. Survival was best when both surgery and radiation were used.

Relative survival is an adequate estimate of cancer-specific survival: baseline mortality-adjusted 10-year survival of 771 rectal cancer patients.

BACKGROUND The objective of the present investigation is to assess the baseline mortality-adjusted 10-year survival of rectal cancer patients. METHODS Ten-year survival was analyzed in 771 consecutive American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage I-IV rectal cancer patients undergoing open resection between 1991 and 2008 using risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models adjusting for population-based baseline mortality. RESULTS The median follow-up of patients alive was 8.8 years. The 10-year relative, overall, and cancer-specific survival were 66.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 61.3-72.1], 48.7% (95% CI 44.9-52.8), and 66.4% (95% CI 62.5-70.5), respectively. In the entire patient sample (stage I-IV) 47.3% and in patients with stage I-III 33.6 % of all deaths were related to rectal cancer during the 10-year period. For patients with AJCC stage I rectal cancer, the 10-year overall survival was 96% and did not significantly differ from an average population after matching for gender, age, and calendar year (p = 0.151). For the more advanced tumor stages, however, survival was significantly impaired (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Retrospective investigations of survival after rectal cancer resection should adjust for baseline mortality because a large fraction of deaths is not cancer related. Stage I rectal cancer patients, compared to patients with more advanced disease stages, have a relative survival close to 100% and can thus be considered cured. Using this relative-survival approach, the real public health burden caused by rectal cancer can reliably be analyzed and reported.

Observed management practices in relation to the risk of infection with paratuberculosis and to the spread of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in Swiss dairy and beef herds

Abstract BACKGROUND: Many studies have been conducted to define risk factors for the transmission of bovine paratuberculosis, mostly in countries with large herds. Little is known about the epidemiology in infected Swiss herds and risk factors important for transmission in smaller herds. Therefore, the presence of known factors which might favor the spread of paratuberculosis and could be related to the prevalence at animal level of fecal shedding of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis were assessed in 17 infected herds (10 dairy, 7 beef). Additionally, the level of knowledge of herd managers about the disease was assessed. In a case-control study with 4 matched negative control herds per infected herd, the association of potential risk factors with the infection status of the herd was investigated. RESULTS: Exposure of the young stock to feces of older animals was frequently observed in infected and in control herds. The farmers' knowledge about paratuberculosis was very limited, even in infected herds. An overall prevalence at animal level of fecal shedding of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis of 6.1% was found in infected herds, whereby shedders younger than 2 years of age were found in 46.2% of the herds where the young stock was available for testing. Several factors related to contamination of the heifer area with cows' feces and the management of the calving area were found to be significantly associated with the within-herd prevalence. Animal purchase was associated with a positive herd infection status (OR = 7.25, p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Numerous risk factors favoring the spread of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis from adult animals to the young stock were observed in infected Swiss dairy and beef herds, which may be amenable to improvement in order to control the disease. Important factors were contamination of the heifer and the calving area, which were associated with higher within-herd prevalence of fecal shedding. The awareness of farmers of paratuberculosis was very low, even in infected herds. Animal purchase in a herd was significantly associated with the probability of a herd to be infected and is thus the most important factor for the control of the spread of disease between farms.

Heart-lung interactions during neurally adjusted ventilatory assist

Introduction Assist in unison to the patient’s inspiratory neural effort and feedback-controlled limitation of lung distension with neurally adjusted ventilatory assist (NAVA) may reduce the negative effects of mechanical ventilation on right ventricular function. Methods Heart–lung interaction was evaluated in 10 intubated patients with impaired cardiac function using esophageal balloons, pulmonary artery catheters and echocardiography. Adequate NAVA level identified by a titration procedure to breathing pattern (NAVAal), 50% NAVAal, and 200% NAVAal and adequate pressure support (PSVal, defined clinically), 50% PSVal, and 150% PSVal were implemented at constant positive end-expiratory pressure for 20 minutes each. Results NAVAal was 3.1 ± 1.1cmH2O/μV and PSVal was 17 ± 2 cmH20. For all NAVA levels negative esophageal pressure deflections were observed during inspiration whereas this pattern was reversed during PSVal and PSVhigh. As compared to expiration, inspiratory right ventricular outflow tract velocity time integral (surrogating stroke volume) was 103 ± 4%, 109 ± 5%, and 100 ± 4% for NAVAlow, NAVAal, and NAVAhigh and 101 ± 3%, 89 ± 6%, and 83 ± 9% for PSVlow, PSVal, and PSVhigh, respectively (p < 0.001 level-mode interaction, ANOVA). Right ventricular systolic isovolumetric pressure increased from 11.0 ± 4.6 mmHg at PSVlow to 14.0 ± 4.6 mmHg at PSVhigh but remained unchanged (11.5 ± 4.7 mmHg (NAVAlow) and 10.8 ± 4.2 mmHg (NAVAhigh), level-mode interaction p = 0.005). Both indicate progressive right ventricular outflow impedance with increasing pressure support ventilation (PSV), but no change with increasing NAVA level. Conclusions Right ventricular performance is less impaired during NAVA compared to PSV as used in this study. Proposed mechanisms are preservation of cyclic intrathoracic pressure changes characteristic of spontaneous breathing and limitation of right-ventricular outflow impedance during inspiration, regardless of the NAVA level.

Local changes in neocortical circuit dynamics coincide with the spread of seizures to thalamus in a model of epilepsy

During the generalization of epileptic seizures, pathological activity in one brain area recruits distant brain structures into joint synchronous discharges. However, it remains unknown whether specific changes in local circuit activity are related to the aberrant recruitment of anatomically distant structures into epileptiform discharges. Further, it is not known whether aberrant areas recruit or entrain healthy ones into pathological activity. Here we study the dynamics of local circuit activity during the spread of epileptiform discharges in the zero-magnesium in vitro model of epilepsy. We employ high-speed multi-photon imaging in combination with dual whole-cell recordings in acute thalamocortical (TC) slices of the juvenile mouse to characterize the generalization of epileptic activity between neocortex and thalamus. We find that, although both structures are exposed to zero-magnesium, the initial onset of focal epileptiform discharge occurs in cortex. This suggests that local recurrent connectivity that is particularly prevalent in cortex is important for the initiation of seizure activity. Subsequent recruitment of thalamus into joint, generalized discharges is coincident with an increase in the coherence of local cortical circuit activity that itself does not depend on thalamus. Finally, the intensity of population discharges is positively correlated between both brain areas. This suggests that during and after seizure generalization not only the timing but also the amplitude of epileptiform discharges in thalamus is entrained by cortex. Together these results suggest a central role of neocortical activity for the onset and the structure of pathological recruitment of thalamus into joint synchronous epileptiform discharges.

Third-Generation-Cephalosporin-Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae Isolates from Humans and Companion Animals in Switzerland: Spread of a DHA-Producing Sequence Type 11 Clone in a Veterinary Setting.

Characterization of third-generation-cephalosporin-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates originating mainly from one human hospital (n = 22) and one companion animal hospital (n = 25) in Bern (Switzerland) revealed the absence of epidemiological links between human and animal isolates. Human infections were not associated with the spread of any specific clone, while the majority of animal infections were due to K. pneumoniae sequence type 11 isolates producing plasmidic DHA AmpC. This clonal dissemination within the veterinary hospital emphasizes the need for effective infection control practices.

A naturally occurring prfA truncation in a Listeria monocytogenes field strain contributes to reduced replication and cell-to-cell spread

Listeria (L.) monocytogenes is an environmental bacterium that may become an intracellular pathogen upon ingestion to cause gastroenteritis, septicaemia, abortions, and/or fatal infections of the central nervous system. We here describe a L. monocytogenes field strain (JF5171) isolated from a bovine placenta in the context of abortion, which exhibited attenuation in bovine brain-slice cultures. The whole genome of strain JF5171 was sequenced, and the invasion, replication, and intercellular spread of JF5171 were further analyzed by quantification of colony forming units and immunofluorescence studies. Phospholipase and hemolysis activity of JF5171 were also quantified along with transcription levels of actA, hly and prfA. The data obtained were compared to those of the widely used L. monocytogenes reference strain, EGD-e. JF5171 exhibited reduced replication and lower levels of phospholipase and hemolysis activity. Invasion and cell-to-cell spread was strongly decreased compared to EGD-e, and actin polymerization was absent. A frame shift deletion was identified in the JF5171 coding region of the major regulator for virulence, prfA. This resulted in a truncated C-terminus sequence (WEN* vs. WGKLN*). In addition, a point mutation resulted in a lysine to arginine substitution at amino acid position 197. Complementation with prfA from EGD-e and with (EGD-e) prfA-K197N increased the replication and spread efficiency of JF5171. In contrast, complementation with the truncated version of prfA had no effect. Taken together, these results suggest that the truncated C-terminus of prfA considerably contributes to the strongly attenuated phenotype observed in vitro.

What are the causes for the spread of GLE parameters deduced from NM data?

Investigations have shown that the analysis results of ground level enhancements (GLEs) based on neutron monitor (NM) data for a selected event can differ considerably depending the procedure used. This may have significant consequences e.g. for the assessment of radiation doses at flight altitudes. The reasons for the spread of the GLE parameters deduced from NM data can be manifold and are at present unclear. They include differences in specific properties of the various analysis procedures (e.g. NM response functions, different ways in taking into account the dynamics of the Earth’s magnetospheric field), different characterisations of the solar particle flux near Earth as well as the specific selection of NM stations used for the analysis. In the present paper we quantitatively investigate this problem for a time interval during the maximum phase of the GLE on 13 December 2006. We present and discuss the changes in the resulting GLE parameters when using different NM response functions, different model representations of the Earth’s magnetospheric field as well as different assumptions for the solar particle spectrum and pitch angle distribution near Earth. The results of the study are expected to yield a basis for the reduction in the spread of the GLE parameters deduced from NM data.

Prognostic Relevance of Palliative Primary Tumor Removal in 37,793 Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients: A Population-Based, Propensity Score-Adjusted Trend Analysis

OBJECTIVE To assess whether palliative primary tumor resection in colorectal cancer patients with incurable stage IV disease is associated with improved survival. BACKGROUND There is a heated debate regarding whether or not an asymptomatic primary tumor should be removed in patients with incurable stage IV colorectal disease. METHODS Stage IV colorectal cancer patients were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 1998 and 2009. Patients undergoing surgery to metastatic sites were excluded. Overall survival and cancer-specific survival were compared between patients with and without palliative primary tumor resection using risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models and stratified propensity score methods. RESULTS Overall, 37,793 stage IV colorectal cancer patients were identified. Of those, 23,004 (60.9%) underwent palliative primary tumor resection. The rate of patients undergoing palliative primary cancer resection decreased from 68.4% in 1998 to 50.7% in 2009 (P < 0.001). In Cox regression analysis after propensity score matching primary cancer resection was associated with a significantly improved overall survival [hazard ratio (HR) of death = 0.40, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.39-0.42, P < 0.001] and cancer-specific survival (HR of death = 0.39, 95% CI = 0.38-0.40, P < 0.001). The benefit of palliative primary cancer resection persisted during the time period 1998 to 2009 with HRs equal to or less than 0.47 for both overall and cancer-specific survival. CONCLUSIONS On the basis of this population-based cohort of stage IV colorectal cancer patients, palliative primary tumor resection was associated with improved overall and cancer-specific survival. Therefore, the dogma that an asymptomatic primary tumor never should be resected in patients with unresectable colorectal cancer metastases must be questioned.