76 resultados para ARCH and GARCH Models


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Rats affected by the MENX multitumor syndrome develop pheochromocytoma (100%). Pheochromocytomas are uncommon tumors and animal models are scarce, hence the interest in MENX rats to identify and preclinically evaluate novel targeted therapies. A prerequisite for such studies is a sensitive and noninvasive detection of MENXassociated pheochromocytoma. We performed positron emission tomography (PET) to determine whether rat pheochromocytomas are detected by tracers used in clinical practice, such as 68Ga-DOTATOC (somatostatin analogue) or (11)C-Hydroxyephedrine (HED), a norepinephrine analogue. We analyzed four affected and three unaffected rats. The PET scan findings were correlated to histopathology and immunophenotype of the tumors, their proliferative index, and the expression of genes coding for somatostatin receptors or the norepinephrine transporter. We observed that mean 68Ga-DOTATOC standard uptake value (SUV) in adrenals of affected animals was 23.3 ± 3.9, significantly higher than in control rats (15.4 ± 7.9; P = .03). The increase in mean tumor-to-liver ratio of (11)C-HED in the MENX-affected animals (1.6 ± 0.5) compared to controls (0.7 ± 0.1) was even more significant (P = .0016). In a unique animal model, functional imaging depicting two pathways important in pheochromocytoma biology discriminated affected animals from controls, thus providing the basis for future preclinical work with MENX rats.

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It is not well known if the size of the ascending thoracic aorta at presentation predicts features of presentation, management, and outcomes in patients with acute type B aortic dissection. The International Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection (IRAD) database was queried for all patients with acute type B dissection who had documentation of ascending thoracic aortic size at time of presentation. Patients were categorized according to ascending thoracic aortic diameters ≤4.0, 4.1 to 4.5, and ≥4.6 cm. Four hundred eighteen patients met inclusion criteria; 291 patients (69.6%) were men with a mean age of 63.2 ± 13.5 years. Ascending thoracic aortic diameter ≤4.0 cm was noted in 250 patients (59.8%), 4.1 to 4.5 cm in 105 patients (25.1%), and ≥4.6 cm in 63 patients (15.1%). Patients with an ascending thoracic aortic diameter ≥4.6 cm were more likely to be men (p = 0.01) and have Marfan syndrome (p <0.001) and known bicuspid aortic valve disease (p = 0.003). In patients with an ascending thoracic aorta ≥4.1 cm, there was an increased incidence of surgical intervention (p = 0.013). In those with an ascending thoracic aorta ≥4.6 cm, the root, ascending aorta, arch, and aortic valve were more often involved in surgical repair. Patients with an ascending thoracic aorta ≤4.0 were more likely to have endovascular therapy than those with larger ascending thoracic aortas (p = 0.009). There was no difference in overall mortality or cause of death. In conclusion, ascending thoracic aortic enlargement in patients with acute type B aortic dissection is common. Although its presence does not appear to predict an increased risk of mortality, it is associated with more frequent open surgical intervention that often involves replacement of the proximal aorta. Those with smaller proximal aortas are more likely to receive endovascular therapy.

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Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.

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To assess the antinociceptive efficacy of transdermal (TD) buprenorphine (B) in dogs, a prospective, positive-controlled experimental study was performed in 10 healthy Beagles. In an open label crossover design, the dogs initially received intravenous B (IVB, 0.02 mg kg(-1)) as a positive control, followed by TDB (52.5 mug h(-1)) 4 months later. Blood was collected at regular intervals for determination of the plasma concentrations of B ([B]) and its metabolite norbuprenorphine. The antinociceptive efficacy was assessed using thermal and mechanical models of nociception. The peak concentration [B] was 1.54 ng mL(-1) (+/-1.98) 60 h after TDB application, although three dogs had no measurable [B] after TDB. Maximum thermal threshold (TT) was 52.6 degrees C (+/-0.48) at 1h after IVB administration and 51.63 degrees C (+/-1.01) 72 h after TDB application. The significant increase in TT indicated that effective antinociception was achieved beyond 36 h after the application of TDB, lasting until patch removal. There was hysteresis between [B] and the antinociceptive effect.

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Partner notification (PN or contact tracing) is an important aspect of treating bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs), such as Chlamydia trachomatis. It facilitates the identification of new infected cases that can be treated through individual case management. PN also acts indirectly by limiting onward transmission in the general population. However, the impact of PN, both at the level of individuals and the population, remains unclear. Since it is difficult to study the effects of PN empirically, mathematical and computational models are useful tools for investigating its potential as a public health intervention. To this end, we developed an individual-based modeling framework called Rstisim. It allows the implementation of different models of STI transmission with various levels of complexity and the reconstruction of the complete dynamic sexual partnership network over any time period. A key feature of this framework is that we can trace an individual's partnership history in detail and investigate the outcome of different PN strategies for C. trachomatis. For individual case management, the results suggest that notifying three or more partners from the preceding 18 months yields substantial numbers of new cases. In contrast, the successful treatment of current partners is most important for preventing re-infection of index cases and reducing further transmission of C. trachomatis at the population level. The findings of this study demonstrate the difference between individual and population level outcomes of public health interventions for STIs.

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Procainamide, a type I antiarrhythmic agent, is used to treat a variety of atrial and ventricular dysrhythmias. It was reported that long-term therapy with procainamide may cause lupus erythematosus in 25-30% of patients. Interestingly, procainamide does not induce lupus erythematosus in mouse models. To explore the differences in this side-effect of procainamide between humans and mouse models, metabolomic analysis using ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with electrospray ionization quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UPLC-ESI-QTOFMS) was conducted on urine samples from procainamide-treated humans, CYP2D6-humanized mice, and wild-type mice. Thirteen urinary procainamide metabolites, including nine novel metabolites, derived from P450-dependent, FMO-dependent oxidations and acylation reactions, were identified and structurally elucidated. In vivo metabolism of procainamide in CYP2D6-humanized mice as well as in vitro incubations with microsomes and recombinant P450s suggested that human CYP2D6 plays a major role in procainamide metabolism. Significant differences in N-acylation and N-oxidation of the drug between humans and mice largely account for the interspecies differences in procainamide metabolism. Significant levels of the novel N-oxide metabolites produced by FMO1 and FMO3 in humans might be associated with the development of procainamide-induced systemic lupus erythematosus. Observations based on this metabolomic study offer clues to understanding procainamide-induced lupus in humans and the effect of P450s and FMOs on procainamide N-oxidation.

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OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate whether total arch replacement (TAR) during initial surgery for root aneurysm should be routinely performed in patients with Marfan syndrome (MFS). METHODS: Retrospective analysis of 94 consecutive MFS patients fulfilling Ghent criteria who underwent 148 aortic surgeries and were followed at this institution during the past 16 years. RESULTS: The mean follow-up interval was 8.8 ± 7 years. Initial presentation was acute aortic dissection (AAD) in 35% of patients (76% Type A and 24% Type B) and aneurismal disease in 65%. TAR was performed in 8% of patients during initial surgery for AAD (otherwise a hemi-arch replacement was performed) and 1.6% in elective root repair. Secondary TAR had to be performed in only 3% of patients without, but in 33% following AAD (33% Type A and 33% Type B; P = 0.0001). Thirty-day, 6-month, 1-year and overall mortalities were 3.2, 5.3, 6.4 and 11.7%, respectively. Operative and 30-day mortalities in secondary aortic arch replacement were zero. Secondary TAR after AAD did not increase the need for the replacement of the entire thoracoabdominal aorta during follow-up compared with patients without secondary TAR (37 vs 40%, P = 1.0). CONCLUSIONS: MFS patients undergoing elective root repair have small risk of reinterventions on the aortic arch, and primary prophylactic replacement does not seem to be justified. In patients with AAD, the need for reinterventions is precipitated by the dissection itself and not by limiting the procedure to the hemi-arch replacement in the emergency setting. Limiting surgery to the aortic root, ascending aorta and proximal aortic arch is associated with low mortality in MFS patients presenting with AAD.

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Echicetin, a heterodimeric protein from the venom of Echis carinatus, binds to platelet glycoprotein Ib (GPIb) and so inhibits platelet aggregation or agglutination induced by various platelet agonists acting via GPIb. The amino acid sequence of the beta subunit of echicetin has been reported and found to belong to the recently identified snake venom subclass of the C-type lectin protein family. Echicetin alpha and beta subunits were purified. N-terminal sequence analysis provided direct evidence that the protein purified was echicetin. The paper presents the complete amino acid sequence of the alpha subunit and computer models of the alpha and beta subunits. The sequence of alpha echicetin is highly similar to the alpha and beta chains of various heterodimeric and homodimeric C-type lectins. Neither of the fully reduced and alkylated alpha or beta subunits of echicetin inhibited the platelet agglutination induced by von Willebrand factor-ristocetin or alpha-thrombin. Earlier reports about the inhibitory activity of reduced and alkylated echicetin beta subunit might have been due to partial reduction of the protein.

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Background The Swiss government decided to freeze new accreditations for physicians in private practice in Switzerland based on the assumption that demand-induced health care spending may be cut by limiting care offers. This legislation initiated an ongoing controversial public debate in Switzerland. The aim of this study is therefore the determination of socio-demographic and health system-related factors of per capita consultation rates with primary care physicians in the multicultural population of Switzerland. Methods The data were derived from the complete claims data of Swiss health insurers for 2004 and included 21.4 million consultations provided by 6564 Swiss primary care physicians on a fee-for-service basis. Socio-demographic data were obtained from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. Utilisation-based health service areas were created and were used as observational units for statistical procedures. Multivariate and hierarchical models were applied to analyze the data. Results Models within the study allowed the definition of 1018 primary care service areas with a median population of 3754 and an average per capita consultation rate of 2.95 per year. Statistical models yielded significant effects for various geographical, socio-demographic and cultural factors. The regional density of physicians in independent practice was also significantly associated with annual consultation rates and indicated an associated increase 0.10 for each additional primary care physician in a population of 10,000 inhabitants. Considerable differences across Swiss language regions were observed with reference to the supply of ambulatory health resources provided either by primary care physicians, specialists, or hospital-based ambulatory care. Conclusion The study documents a large small-area variation in utilisation and provision of health care resources in Switzerland. Effects of physician density appeared to be strongly related to Swiss language regions and may be rooted in the different cultural backgrounds of the served populations.

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BACKGROUND: Several epidemiological studies show that inhalation of particulate matter may cause increased pulmonary morbidity and mortality. Of particular interest are the ultrafine particles that are particularly toxic. In addition more and more nanoparticles are released into the environment; however, the potential health effects of these nanoparticles are yet unknown. OBJECTIVES: To avoid particle toxicity studies with animals many cell culture models have been developed during the past years. METHODS: This review focuses on the most commonly used in vitro epithelial airway and alveolar models to study particle-cell interactions and particle toxicity and highlights advantages and disadvantages of the different models. RESULTS/CONCLUSION: There are many lung cell culture models but none of these models seems to be perfect. However, they might be a great tool to perform basic research or toxicity tests. The focus here is on 3D and co-culture models, which seem to be more realistic than monocultures.

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BACKGROUND: Estimates of the decrease in CD4(+) cell counts in untreated patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection are important for patient care and public health. We analyzed CD4(+) cell count decreases in the Cape Town AIDS Cohort and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: We used mixed-effects models and joint models that allowed for the correlation between CD4(+) cell count decreases and survival and stratified analyses by the initial cell count (50-199, 200-349, 350-499, and 500-750 cells/microL). Results are presented as the mean decrease in CD4(+) cell count with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) during the first year after the initial CD4(+) cell count. RESULTS: A total of 784 South African (629 nonwhite) and 2030 Swiss (218 nonwhite) patients with HIV infection contributed 13,388 CD4(+) cell counts. Decreases in CD4(+) cell count were steeper in white patients, patients with higher initial CD4(+) cell counts, and older patients. Decreases ranged from a mean of 38 cells/microL (95% CI, 24-54 cells/microL) in nonwhite patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study 15-39 years of age with an initial CD4(+) cell count of 200-349 cells/microL to a mean of 210 cells/microL (95% CI, 143-268 cells/microL) in white patients in the Cape Town AIDS Cohort > or =40 years of age with an initial CD4(+) cell count of 500-750 cells/microL. CONCLUSIONS: Among both patients from Switzerland and patients from South Africa, CD4(+) cell count decreases were greater in white patients with HIV infection than they were in nonwhite patients with HIV infection.

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OBJECTIVE: Hierarchical modeling has been proposed as a solution to the multiple exposure problem. We estimate associations between metabolic syndrome and different components of antiretroviral therapy using both conventional and hierarchical models. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We use discrete time survival analysis to estimate the association between metabolic syndrome and cumulative exposure to 16 antiretrovirals from four drug classes. We fit a hierarchical model where the drug class provides a prior model of the association between metabolic syndrome and exposure to each antiretroviral. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred and eighteen patients were followed for a median of 27 months, with 242 cases of metabolic syndrome (20%) at a rate of 7.5 cases per 100 patient years. Metabolic syndrome was more likely to develop in patients exposed to stavudine, but was less likely to develop in those exposed to atazanavir. The estimate for exposure to atazanavir increased from hazard ratio of 0.06 per 6 months' use in the conventional model to 0.37 in the hierarchical model (or from 0.57 to 0.81 when using spline-based covariate adjustment). CONCLUSION: These results are consistent with trials that show the disadvantage of stavudine and advantage of atazanavir relative to other drugs in their respective classes. The hierarchical model gave more plausible results than the equivalent conventional model.

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High-resolution and highly precise age models for recent lake sediments (last 100–150 years) are essential for quantitative paleoclimate research. These are particularly important for sedimentological and geochemical proxies, where transfer functions cannot be established and calibration must be based upon the relation of sedimentary records to instrumental data. High-precision dating for the calibration period is most critical as it determines directly the quality of the calibration statistics. Here, as an example, we compare radionuclide age models obtained on two high-elevation glacial lakes in the Central Chilean Andes (Laguna Negra: 33°38′S/70°08′W, 2,680 m a.s.l. and Laguna El Ocho: 34°02′S/70°19′W, 3,250 m a.s.l.). We show the different numerical models that produce accurate age-depth chronologies based on 210Pb profiles, and we explain how to obtain reduced age-error bars at the bottom part of the profiles, i.e., typically around the end of the 19th century. In order to constrain the age models, we propose a method with five steps: (i) sampling at irregularly-spaced intervals for 226Ra, 210Pb and 137Cs depending on the stratigraphy and microfacies, (ii) a systematic comparison of numerical models for the calculation of 210Pb-based age models: constant flux constant sedimentation (CFCS), constant initial concentration (CIC), constant rate of supply (CRS) and sediment isotope tomography (SIT), (iii) numerical constraining of the CRS and SIT models with the 137Cs chronomarker of AD 1964 and, (iv) step-wise cross-validation with independent diagnostic environmental stratigraphic markers of known age (e.g., volcanic ash layer, historical flood and earthquakes). In both examples, we also use airborne pollutants such as spheroidal carbonaceous particles (reflecting the history of fossil fuel emissions), excess atmospheric Cu deposition (reflecting the production history of a large local Cu mine), and turbidites related to historical earthquakes. Our results show that the SIT model constrained with the 137Cs AD 1964 peak performs best over the entire chronological profile (last 100–150 years) and yields the smallest standard deviations for the sediment ages. Such precision is critical for the calibration statistics, and ultimately, for the quality of the quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction. The systematic comparison of CRS and SIT models also helps to validate the robustness of the chronologies in different sections of the profile. Although surprisingly poorly known and under-explored in paleolimnological research, the SIT model has a great potential in paleoclimatological reconstructions based on lake sediments

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SUMMARY A recent systematic review demonstrated that, overall, orthodontic treatment might result in a small worsening of periodontal status. The aim of this retrospective study was to test the hypothesis that a change of mandibular incisor inclination promotes development of labial gingival recessions. One hundred and seventy-nine subjects who met the following inclusion criteria were selected: age 11-14 years at start of orthodontic treatment (TS), bonded retainer placed immediately after treatment (T₀), dental casts and lateral cephalograms available pre-treatment (TS), post-treatment (T₀), 2 years post-treatment (T₂), and 5 years post-treatment (T₅). Depending on the change of lower incisor inclination during treatment (ΔInc_Incl), the sample was divided into three groups: Retro (N = 34; ΔInc_Incl ≤ -1 degree), Stable (N = 22; ΔInc_Incl > -1 degree and ≤1 degree), and Pro (N = 123; ΔInc_Incl > 1 degree). Clinical crown heights of mandibular incisors and the presence of gingival recessions in this region were assessed on plaster models. Fisher's exact tests, one-way analysis of variance, and regression models were used for analysis of inter-group differences. The mean increase of clinical crown heights (T₀ to T₅) of mandibular incisors ranged from 0.6 to 0.91 mm in the Retro, Stable, and Pro groups, respectively; the difference was not significant (P = 0.534). At T₅, gingival recessions were present in 8.8, 4.5, and 16.3 per cent patients from the Retro, Stable, and Pro groups, respectively. The difference was not significant (P = 0.265). The change of lower incisors inclination during treatment did not affect development of labial gingival recessions in this patient group.

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OBJECTIVES This study sought to validate the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (ACS), in order to further legitimize its clinical application. BACKGROUND The Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score allows for an individualized prediction of 1-year mortality in patients undergoing contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention. It is composed of a "Core" Model (anatomical SYNTAX score, age, creatinine clearance, and left ventricular ejection fraction), and "Extended" Model (composed of an additional 6 clinical variables), and has previously been cross validated in 7 contemporary stent trials (>6,000 patients). METHODS One-year all-cause death was analyzed in 2,627 patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention from the ACUITY (Acute Catheterization and Urgent Intervention Triage Strategy) trial. Mortality predictions from the Core and Extended Models were studied with respect to discrimination, that is, separation of those with and without 1-year all-cause death (assessed by the concordance [C] statistic), and calibration, that is, agreement between observed and predicted outcomes (assessed with validation plots). Decision curve analyses, which weight the harms (false positives) against benefits (true positives) of using a risk score to make mortality predictions, were undertaken to assess clinical usefulness. RESULTS In the ACUITY trial, the median SYNTAX score was 9.0 (interquartile range 5.0 to 16.0); approximately 40% of patients had 3-vessel disease, 29% diabetes, and 85% underwent drug-eluting stent implantation. Validation plots confirmed agreement between observed and predicted mortality. The Core and Extended Models demonstrated substantial improvements in the discriminative ability for 1-year all-cause death compared with the anatomical SYNTAX score in isolation (C-statistics: SYNTAX score: 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56 to 0.71; Core Model: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.79; Extended Model: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.70 to 0.83). Decision curve analyses confirmed the increasing ability to correctly identify patients who would die at 1 year with the Extended Model versus the Core Model versus the anatomical SYNTAX score, over a wide range of thresholds for mortality risk predictions. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the anatomical SYNTAX score alone, the Core and Extended Models of the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score more accurately predicted individual 1-year mortality in patients presenting with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. These findings support the clinical application of the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score.