Evaluating watershed service availability under future management and climate change scenarios in the Pangani Basin

Watershed services are the benefits people obtain from the flow of water through a watershed. While demand for such services is increasing in most parts of the world, supply is getting more insecure due to human impacts on ecosystems such as climate or land use change. Population and water management authorities therefore require information on the potential availability of watershed services in the future and the trade-offs involved. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model watershed service availability for future management and climate change scenarios in the East African Pangani Basin. In order to quantify actual “benefits”, SWAT2005 was slightly modified, calibrated and configured at the required spatial and temporal resolution so that simulated water resources and processes could be characterized based on their valuation by stakeholders and their accessibility. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate three management and three climate scenarios. The results show that by the year 2025, not primarily the physical availability of water, but access to water resources and efficiency of use represent the greatest challenges. Water to cover basic human needs is available at least 95% of time but must be made accessible to the population through investments in distribution infrastructure. Concerning the trade-off between agricultural use and hydropower production, there is virtually no potential for an increase in hydropower even if it is given priority. Agriculture will necessarily expand spatially as a result of population growth, and can even benefit from higher irrigation water availability per area unit, given improved irrigation efficiency and enforced regulation to ensure equitable distribution of available water. The decline in services from natural terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. charcoal, food), due to the expansion of agriculture, increases the vulnerability of residents who depend on such services mostly in times of drought. The expected impacts of climate change may contribute to an increase or decrease in watershed service availability, but are only marginal and much lower than management impacts up to the year 2025.

Monitoring the Time Course of Perception without Awareness: A Comparison of Mirror Masked Words and Nonwords

Mirror masked words are embedded into a context that makes them appear as senseless patterns or as strings of unfamiliar letters. Thus, mirror masked words can be shown for several hundreds of milliseconds without being recognised as words. We sought to further investigate effects of nonsconscious reading by monitoring event-related brain potentials (ERPs) while participants observed mirror masked letter strings. ERPs were recorded while participants observed mirror masked words and nonwords. Data of 15 participants was segmented into periods of quasi-stable field topography (microstates). Microstates for masked words and nonwords were compared using randomization tests, statistical parametric scalp maps and Low Resolution Electromagnetic Tomography (LORETA). ERPs to masked words and nonwords showed significant topographic differences between 136 and 256 ms, indicating that stimuli were nonconsciously discriminated. A LORETA model localised sources of activation discriminating between masked words and nonwords in left operculum, the right superior parietal lobe and right superior temporal gyrus indicating higher current density for nonwords than for words in these areas. ERPs of mirror masked stimuli can indicate unconscious discrimination even in cases where behavioural priming is unreliable. This approach might be useful for investigating differences in early, nonconscious stages of word perception.

Hemispheric lateralization patterns and psychotic experiences in healthy subjects

The hypothesis that psychotic experiences in healthy subjects are associated with a dysfunction of the right hemisphere is supported by some, but not all, available studies. Differences in gender composition of study samples may explain in part the divergent findings. The present study was carried out in 42 healthy, right-handed university students. Scores on the Schizophrenia and Paranoia scales of the Minnesota Multidimensional Personality Inventory-2 were used in correlation analyses and to define a High- and a Low-Psychotic group. Brain Electrical Microstates and Low Resolution Electromagnetic Tomography (LORETA) source analyses of the auditory P300 (P3a and P3b) components of the event-related potential, as well as a battery of neuropsychological tests, were used to assess hemispheric functioning. Scores on the Paranoia scale were positively associated with a leftward shift of the P3a topographic descriptors in females but not in males. When comparing High-Psychotic and Low-Psychotic females, a leftward shift of P3a descriptors and an increased cortical activation in left fronto-temporal areas were observed in the High-Psychotic group. Our results demonstrated gender-related differences in the pattern of hemispheric imbalance associated with psychotic experiences in healthy subjects.

Face-elicited ERPs and affective attitude: brain electric microstate and tomography analyses

Objectives: Although behavioral studies have demonstrated that normative affective traits modulate the processing of facial and emotionally charged stimuli, direct electrophysiological evidence for this modulation is still lacking. Methods: Event-related potential (ERP) data associated with personal, traitlike approach- or withdrawal-related attitude (assessed post-recording and 14 months later) were investigated in 18 subjects during task-free (i.e. unrequested, spontaneous) emotional evaluation of faces. Temporal and spatial aspects of 27 channel ERP were analyzed with microstate analysis and low resolution electromagnetic tomography (LORETA), a new method to compute 3 dimensional cortical current density implemented in the Talairach brain atlas. Results: Microstate analysis showed group differences 132-196 and 196-272 ms poststimulus, with right-shifted electric gravity centers for subjects with negative affective attitude. During these (over subjects reliably identifiable) personality-modulated, face-elicited microstates, LORETA revealed activation of bilateral occipito-temporal regions, reportedly associated with facial configuration extraction processes. Negative compared to positive affective attitude showed higher activity right temporal; positive compared to negative attitude showed higher activity left temporo-parieto-occipital. Conclusions: These temporal and spatial aspects suggest that the subject groups differed in brain activity at early, automatic, stimulus-related face processing steps when structural face encoding (configuration extraction) occurs. In sum, the brain functional microstates associated with affect-related personality features modulate brain mechanisms during face processing already at early information processing stages.

Modeling the heterogeneous ice and gas coma of Comet 103P/Hartley 2

The spectacular images of Comet 103P/Hartley 2 recorded by the Medium Resolution Instrument (MRI) and High Resolution Instrument (HRI) on board of the Extrasolar Planet Observation and Deep Impact Extended Investigation (EPOXI) spacecraft, as the Deep Impact extended mission, revealed that its bi-lobed very active nucleus outgasses volatiles heterogeneously. Indeed, CO2 is the primary driver of activity by dragging out chunks of pure ice out of the nucleus from the sub-solar lobe that appear to be the main source of water in Hartley 2's coma by sublimating slowly as they go away from the nucleus. However, water vapor is released by direct sublimation of the nucleus at the waist without any significant amount of either CO2 or icy grains. The coma structure for a comet with such areas of diverse chemistry differs from the usual models where gases are produced in a homogeneous way from the surface. We use the fully kinetic Direct Simulation Monte Carlo model of Tenishev et al. (Tenishev, V.M., Combi, M.R., Davidsson, B. [2008]. Astrophys. J. 685, 659-677; Tenishev, V.M., Combi, M.R., Rubin, M. [2011]. Astrophys. J. 732, 104-120) applied to Comet 103P/Hartley 2 including sublimating icy grains to reproduce the observations made by EPOXI and ground-based measurements. A realistic bi-lobed nucleus with a succession of active areas with different chemistry was included in the model enabling us to study in details the coma of Hartley 2. The different gas production rates from each area were found by fitting the spectra computed using a line-by-line non-LTE radiative transfer model to the HRI observations. The presence of icy grains with long lifetimes, which are pushed anti-sunward by radiation pressure, explains the observed OH asymmetry with enhancement on the night side of the coma.

Climate and vegetation changes during the Lateglacial and early–middle Holocene at Lake Ledro (southern Alps, Italy)

Adding to the on-going debate regarding vegetation recolonisation (more particularly the timing) in Europe and climate change since the Lateglacial, this study investigates a long sediment core (LL081) from Lake Ledro (652ma.s.l., southern Alps, Italy). Environmental changes were reconstructed using multiproxy analysis (pollen-based vegetation and climate reconstruction, lake levels, magnetic susceptibility and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) measurements) recorded climate and land-use changes during the Lateglacial and early-middle Holocene. The well-dated and high-resolution pollen record of Lake Ledro is compared with vegetation records from the southern and northern Alps to trace the history of tree species distribution. An altitudedependent progressive time delay of the first continuous occurrence of Abies (fir) and of the Larix (larch) development has been observed since the Lateglacial in the southern Alps. This pattern suggests that the mid-altitude Lake Ledro area was not a refuge and that trees originated from lowlands or hilly areas (e.g. Euganean Hills) in northern Italy. Preboreal oscillations (ca. 11 000 cal BP), Boreal oscillations (ca. 10 200, 9300 cal BP) and the 8.2 kyr cold event suggest a centennial-scale climate forcing in the studied area. Picea (spruce) expansion occurred preferentially around 10 200 and 8200 cal BP in the south-eastern Alps, and therefore reflects the long-lasting cumulative effects of successive boreal and the 8.2 kyr cold event. The extension of Abies is contemporaneous with the 8.2 kyr event, but its development in the southern Alps benefits from the wettest interval 8200-7300 cal BP evidenced in high lake levels, flood activity and pollen-based climate reconstructions. Since ca. 7500 cal BP, a weak signal of pollen-based anthropogenic activities suggest weak human impact. The period between ca. 5700 and ca. 4100 cal BP is considered as a transition period to colder and wetter conditions (particularly during summers) that favoured a dense beech (Fagus) forest development which in return caused a distinctive yew (Taxus) decline.We conclude that climate was the dominant factor controlling vegetation changes and erosion processes during the early and middle Holocene (up to ca. 4100 cal BP).

Orbital changes, variation in solar activity and increased anthropogenic activities: controls on the Holocene flood frequency in the Lake Ledro area, Northern Italy

Adding to the on-going debate regarding vegetation recolonisation (more particularly the timing) in Europe and climate change since the Lateglacial, this study investigates a long sediment core (LL081) from Lake Ledro (652ma.s.l., southern Alps, Italy). Environmental changes were reconstructed using multiproxy analysis (pollen-based vegetation and climate reconstruction, lake levels, magnetic susceptibility and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) measurements) recorded climate and land-use changes during the Lateglacial and early-middle Holocene. The well-dated and high-resolution pollen record of Lake Ledro is compared with vegetation records from the southern and northern Alps to trace the history of tree species distribution. An altitudedependent progressive time delay of the first continuous occurrence of Abies (fir) and of the Larix (larch) development has been observed since the Lateglacial in the southern Alps. This pattern suggests that the mid-altitude Lake Ledro area was not a refuge and that trees originated from lowlands or hilly areas (e.g. Euganean Hills) in northern Italy. Preboreal oscillations (ca. 11 000 cal BP), Boreal oscillations (ca. 10 200, 9300 cal BP) and the 8.2 kyr cold event suggest a centennial-scale climate forcing in the studied area. Picea (spruce) expansion occurred preferentially around 10 200 and 8200 cal BP in the south-eastern Alps, and therefore reflects the long-lasting cumulative effects of successive boreal and the 8.2 kyr cold event. The extension of Abies is contemporaneous with the 8.2 kyr event, but its development in the southern Alps benefits from the wettest interval 8200-7300 cal BP evidenced in high lake levels, flood activity and pollen-based climate reconstructions. Since ca. 7500 cal BP, a weak signal of pollen-based anthropogenic activities suggest weak human impact. The period between ca. 5700 and ca. 4100 cal BP is considered as a transition period to colder and wetter conditions (particularly during summers) that favoured a dense beech (Fagus) forest development which in return caused a distinctive yew (Taxus) decline.We conclude that climate was the dominant factor controlling vegetation changes and erosion processes during the early and middle Holocene (up to ca. 4100 cal BP).

Environment and climate of the last 51,000 years – new insights from the Potrok Aike maar lake Sediment Archive Drilling prOject (PASADO)

In this introductory paper we summarize the history and achievements of the Potrok Aike maar lake Sediment Archive Drilling prOject (PASADO), an interdisciplinary project embedded in the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP). The stringent multiproxy approach adopted in this research combined with radiocarbon and luminescence dating provided the opportunity to synthesize a large body of hydrologically relevant data from Laguna Potrok Aike (southern Patagonia, Argentina). At this site, lake level was high from 51 ka until the early Holocene when the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies (SHW) were located further to the north. At 9.3 ka cal. BP the SHW moved southward and over the latitude of the study area (52 degrees S) causing a pronounced negative water balance with a lake level decrease of more than 50 m. Two millennia later, the SHW diminished in intensity and lake level rose to a subsequent maximum during the Little Ice Age. Since the 20th century, a strengthening of the SHW increased the evaporative stress resulting in a more negative water balance. A comparison of our data with other hydrological fluctuations at a regional scale in south-eastern Patagonia, provides new insights and also calls for better chronologies and high-resolution records of climate variability.

Lake sediments as natural seismographs: A compiled record of Late Quaternary earthquakes in Central Switzerland and its implication for Alpine deformation

Central Switzerland lies tectonically in an intraplate area and recurrence rates of strong earthquakes exceed the time span covered by historic chronicles. However, many lakes are present in the area that act as natural seismographs: their continuous, datable and high-resolution sediment succession allows extension of the earthquake catalogue to pre-historic times. This study reviews and compiles available data sets and results from more than 10 years of lacustrine palaeoseismological research in lakes of northern and Central Switzerland. The concept of using lacustrine mass-movement event stratigraphy to identify palaeo-earthquakes is showcased by presenting new data and results from Lake Zurich. The Late Glacial to Holocene mass-movement units in this lake document a complex history of varying tectonic and environmental impacts. Results include sedimentary evidence of three major and three minor, simultaneously triggered basin-wide lateral slope failure events interpreted as the fingerprints of palaeoseismic activity. A refined earthquake catalogue, which includes results from previous lake studies, reveals a non-uniform temporal distribution of earthquakes in northern and Central Switzerland. A higher frequency of earthquakes in the Late Glacial and Late Holocene period documents two different phases of neotectonic activity; they are interpreted to be related to isostatic post-glacial rebound and relatively recent (re-)activation of seismogenic zones, respectively. Magnitudes and epicentre reconstructions for the largest identified earthquakes provide evidence for two possible earthquake sources: (i) a source area in the region of the Alpine or Sub-Alpine Front due to release of accumulated north-west/south-east compressional stress related to an active basal thrust beneath the Aar massif; and (ii) a source area beneath the Alpine foreland due to reactivation of deep-seated strike-slip faults. Such activity has been repeatedly observed instrumentally, for example, during the most recent magnitude 4.2 and 3.5 earthquakes of February 2012, near Zug. The combined lacustrine record from northern and Central Switzerland indicates that at least one of these potential sources has been capable of producing magnitude 6.2 to 6.7 events in the past.

TDOA for Narrow-band Signal with Low Sampling Rate and Imperfect Synchronization

Time-based localization techniques such as multilateration are favoured for positioning to wide-band signals. Applying the same techniques with narrow-band signals such as GSM is not so trivial. The process is challenged by the needs of synchronization accuracy and timestamp resolution both in the nanoseconds range. We propose approaches to deal with both challenges. On the one hand, we introduce a method to eliminate the negative effect of synchronization offset on time measurements. On the other hand, we propose timestamps with nanoseconds accuracy by using timing information from the signal processing chain. For a set of experiments, ranging from sub-urban to indoor environments, we show that our proposed approaches are able to improve the localization accuracy of TDOA approaches by several factors. We are even able to demonstrate errors as small as 10 meters for outdoor settings with narrow-band signals.

State-of-the-art aortic imaging: part I - fundamentals and perspectives of CT and MRI

Over the last two decades, imaging of the aorta has undergone a clinically relevant change. As part of the change non-invasive imaging techniques have replaced invasive intra-arterial digital subtraction angiography as the former imaging gold standard for aortic diseases. Computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) constitute the backbone of pre- and postoperative aortic imaging because they allow for imaging of the entire aorta and its branches. The first part of this review article describes the imaging principles of CT and MRI with regard to aortic disease, shows how both technologies can be applied in every day clinical practice, offering exciting perspectives. Recent CT scanner generations deliver excellent image quality with a high spatial and temporal resolution. Technical developments have resulted in CT scan performed within a few seconds for the entire aorta. Therefore, CT angiography (CTA) is the imaging technology of choice for evaluating acute aortic syndromes, for diagnosis of most aortic pathologies, preoperative planning and postoperative follow-up after endovascular aortic repair. However, radiation dose and the risk of contrast induced nephropathy are major downsides of CTA. Optimisation of scan protocols and contrast media administration can help to reduce the required radiation dose and contrast media. MR angiography (MRA) is an excellent alternative to CTA for both diagnosis of aortic pathologies and postoperative follow-up. The lack of radiation is particularly beneficial for younger patients. A potential side effect of gadolinium contrast agents is nephrogenic systemic fibrosis (NSF). In patients with high risk of NSF unenhanced MRA can be performed with both ECG- and breath-gating techniques. Additionally, MRI provides the possibility to visualise and measure both dynamic and flow information.

Performance on auditory and visual temporal informationprocessing is related to psychometric intelligence

The present study investigated the relationship between psychometric intelligence and temporal resolution power (TRP) as simultaneously assessed by auditory and visual psychophysical timing tasks. In addition, three different theoretical models of the functional relationship between TRP and psychometric intelligence as assessed by means of the Adaptive Matrices Test (AMT) were developed. To test the validity of these models, structural equation modeling was applied. Empirical data supported a hierarchical model that assumed auditory and visual modality-specific temporal processing at a first level and amodal temporal processing at a second level. This second-order latent variable was substantially correlated with psychometric intelligence. Therefore, the relationship between psychometric intelligence and psychophysical timing performance can be explained best by a hierarchical model of temporal information processing.

Effects of sources and meteorology on particulate matter in the Western Mediterranean Basin: An overview of the DAURE campaign

DAURE (Determination of the Sources of Atmospheric Aerosols in Urban and Rural Environments in the Western Mediterranean) was a multidisciplinary international field campaign aimed at investigating the sources and meteorological controls of particulate matter in the Western Mediterranean Basin (WMB). Measurements were simultaneously performed at an urban-coastal (Barcelona, BCN) and a rural-elevated (Montseny, MSY) site pair in NE Spain during winter and summer. State-of-the-art methods such as 14C analysis, proton-transfer reaction mass spectrometry, and high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometry were applied for the first time in the WMB as part of DAURE. WMB regional pollution episodes were associated with high concentrations of inorganic and organic species formed during the transport to inland areas and built up at regional scales. Winter pollutants accumulation depended on the degree of regional stagnation of an air mass under anticyclonic conditions and the planetary boundary layer height. In summer, regional recirculation and biogenic secondary organic aerosols (SOA) formation mainly determined the regional pollutant concentrations. The contribution from fossil sources to organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) and hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol concentrations were higher at BCN compared with MSY due to traffic emissions. The relative contribution of nonfossil OC was higher at MSY especially in summer due to biogenic emissions. The fossil OC/EC ratio at MSY was twice the corresponding ratio at BCN indicating that a substantial fraction of fossil OC was due to fossil SOA. In winter, BCN cooking emissions were identified as an important source of modern carbon in primary organic aerosol.

Eco-Evolutionary Spatial Dynamics. Rapid Evolution and Isolation Explain Food Web Persistence

One of the current challenges in evolutionary ecology is understanding the long-term persistence of contemporary-evolving predator–prey interactions across space and time. To address this, we developed an extension of a multi-locus, multi-trait eco-evolutionary individual-based model that incorporates several interacting species in explicit landscapes. We simulated eco-evolutionary dynamics of multiple species food webs with different degrees of connectance across soil-moisture islands. A broad set of parameter combinations led to the local extinction of species, but some species persisted, and this was associated with (1) high connectance and omnivory and (2) ongoing evolution, due to multi-trait genetic variability of the embedded species. Furthermore, persistence was highest at intermediate island distances, likely because of a balance between predation-induced extinction (strongest at short island distances) and the coupling of island diversity by top predators, which by travelling among islands exert global top-down control of biodiversity. In the simulations with high genetic variation, we also found widespread trait evolutionary changes indicative of eco-evolutionary dynamics. We discuss how the ever-increasing computing power and high-resolution data availability will soon allow researchers to start bridging the in vivo–in silico gap.

In vitro characterization of a synthetic calcium phosphate bone graft on periodontal ligament cell and osteoblast behavior and its combination with an enamel matrix derivative.

OBJECTIVES Recent studies suggest that a combination of enamel matrix derivative (EMD) with grafting material may improve periodontal wound healing/regeneration. Newly developed calcium phosphate (CaP) ceramics have been demonstrated a viable synthetic replacement option for bone grafting filler materials. AIMS This study aims to test the ability for EMD to adsorb to the surface of CaP particles and to determine the effect of EMD on downstream cellular pathways such as adhesion, proliferation, and differentiation of primary human osteoblasts and periodontal ligament (PDL) cells. MATERIALS AND METHODS EMD was adsorbed onto CaP particles and analyzed for protein adsorption patterns via scanning electron microscopy and high-resolution immunocytochemistry with an anti-EMD antibody. Cell attachment and cell proliferation were quantified using CellTiter 96 One Solution Cell Assay (MTS). Cell differentiation was analyzed using real-time PCR for genes encoding Runx2, alkaline phosphatase, osteocalcin, and collagen1α1, and mineralization was assessed using alizarin red staining. RESULTS Analysis of cell attachment revealed significantly higher number of cells attached to EMD-adsorbed CaP particles when compared to control and blood-adsorbed samples. EMD also significantly increased cell proliferation at 3 and 5 days post-seeding. Moreover, there were significantly higher mRNA levels of osteoblast differentiation markers including collagen1α1, alkaline phosphatase, and osteocalcin in osteoblasts and PDL cells cultured on EMD-adsorbed CaP particles at various time points. CONCLUSION The present study suggests that the addition of EMD to CaP grafting particles may influence periodontal regeneration by stimulating PDL cell and osteoblast attachment, proliferation, and differentiation. Future in vivo and clinical studies are required to confirm these findings. CLINICAL RELEVANCE The combination of EMD and CaP may represent an option for regenerative periodontal therapy in advanced intrabony defects.