Functional error modeling for uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology

Approximate models (proxies) can be employed to reduce the computational costs of estimating uncertainty. The price to pay is that the approximations introduced by the proxy model can lead to a biased estimation. To avoid this problem and ensure a reliable uncertainty quantification, we propose to combine functional data analysis and machine learning to build error models that allow us to obtain an accurate prediction of the exact response without solving the exact model for all realizations. We build the relationship between proxy and exact model on a learning set of geostatistical realizations for which both exact and approximate solvers are run. Functional principal components analysis (FPCA) is used to investigate the variability in the two sets of curves and reduce the dimensionality of the problem while maximizing the retained information. Once obtained, the error model can be used to predict the exact response of any realization on the basis of the sole proxy response. This methodology is purpose-oriented as the error model is constructed directly for the quantity of interest, rather than for the state of the system. Also, the dimensionality reduction performed by FPCA allows a diagnostic of the quality of the error model to assess the informativeness of the learning set and the fidelity of the proxy to the exact model. The possibility of obtaining a prediction of the exact response for any newly generated realization suggests that the methodology can be effectively used beyond the context of uncertainty quantification, in particular for Bayesian inference and optimization.

Molecular Epidemiology Issues of BVDV Infection in the Eastern Ukraine

Aim. This study was focused on (i) detection of specific BVDV-antibodies within selected cattle farms, (ii) identification of persistently infected (PI) animals and (iii) genetic typing of selected BVDV isolates. Methods. RNA extraction, real-time polymerase chain reaction, ELISA technique, sequencing. Results. Specific BVDV-antibodies were detected in 713 of 1,059 analyzed samples (67.3 per cent). This number is in agreement with findings in many cattle herds around the world. However, the number of positive samples differed in the herds. While 57 samples out of 283 (20.1 per cent) were identified in the first herd, 400 out of 475 (84.2 per cent) and 256 out of 301 (85 per cent) animals were positive in the second and third herd. High number of animals with BVDV RNA was detected in all herds. The real-time PCR assay detected BVDV RNA in 5 of 1068 samples analyzed (0.5 per cent). 4 positive samples out of 490 (0.8 per cent) and 1 out of 301 (0.33 per cent) were found in the second and third herd. The genetic materials of BVDV were not found in the first herd. Data on the number of PI animals were in accord with serological findings in the cattle herds involved in our study. The genetic typing of viral isolates revealed that only BVDV, Type 1 viruses were present. The hylogenetic analysis confirmed two BVDV-1 subtypes, namely b and f and revealed that all 4 viruses from the second farm were typed as BVDV-1b and all of them were absolutely identical in 5’-UTR, but virus from the third farm was typed as BVDV-1f. Conclusion. Our results indicated that the BVDV infection is widespread in cattle herds in the eastern Ukraine, that requires further research and development of new approaches to improve the current situation.

Does Climbing the ‘Social Ladder’ Increase Life Satisfaction? A Comparison of the UK and Switzerland

It is a widely held belief that status and wealth affect subjective well-being (SWB). This is reflected in the efforts of many people to climb up the ‘social ladder’ and to transcend their social background. By being upwardly mobile, they hope to benefit from various rewards they believe to be associated with desirable societal positions. However, findings from a range of disciplines provide evidence that these benefits are not to be taken for granted. Thus, we decided investigate the question of how upward social mobility impacts life satisfaction, the cognitive component of SWB.

Lithium isotope constraints on crust–mantle interactions and surface processes on Mars

Lithium abundances and isotope compositions are reported for a suite of martian meteorites that span the range of petrological and geochemical types recognized to date for Mars. Samples include twenty-one bulk-rock enriched, intermediate and depleted shergottites, six nakhlites, two chassignites, the orthopyroxenite Allan Hills (ALH) 84001 and the polymict breccia Northwest Africa (NWA) 7034. Shergottites unaffected by terrestrial weathering exhibit a range in δ7Li from 2.1 to 6.2‰, similar to that reported for pristine terrestrial peridotites and unaltered mid-ocean ridge and ocean island basalts. Two chassignites have δ7Li values (4.0‰) intermediate to the shergottite range, and combined, these meteorites provide the most robust current constraints on δ7Li of the martian mantle. The polymict breccia NWA 7034 has the lowest δ7Li (−0.2‰) of all terrestrially unaltered martian meteorites measured to date and may represent an isotopically light surface end-member. The new data for NWA 7034 imply that martian crustal surface materials had both a lighter Li isotope composition and elevated Li abundance compared with their associated mantle. These findings are supported by Li data for olivine-phyric shergotitte NWA 1068, a black glass phase isolated from the Tissint meteorite fall, and some nakhlites, which all show evidence for assimilation of a low-δ7Li crustal component. The range in δ7Li for nakhlites (1.8 to 5.2‰), and co-variations with chlorine abundance, suggests crustal contamination by Cl-rich brines. The differences in Li isotope composition and abundance between the martian mantle and estimated crust are not as large as the fractionations observed for terrestrial continental crust and mantle, suggesting a difference in the styles of alteration and weathering between water-dominated processes on Earth versus possibly Cl–S-rich brines on Mars. Using high-MgO shergottites (>15 wt.% MgO) it is possible to estimate the δ7Li of Bulk Silicate Mars (BSM) to be 4.2 ± 0.9‰ (2σ). This value is at the higher end of estimates for the Bulk Silicate Earth (BSE; 3.5 ± 1.0‰, 2σ), but overlaps within uncertainty.

Influence of Different Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Regimens on Response, Prognosis, and Complication Rate in Patients with Esophagogastric Adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND Perioperative chemotherapy improves survival in patients with advanced esophagogastric cancer, but the optimal treatment regimen remains unclear. More intensive chemotherapy may improve outcome, but also increase toxicity and complications. METHODS A total of 843 patients were included in this retrospective study and stratified in 4 groups: doublet therapy with cisplatin or oxaliplatin and 5-fluorouracil (groups A/B) or triplet therapy with additional epirubicin or taxane (groups C/D). The influence of the different neoadjuvant chemotherapy regimens on response, prognosis, and complications was assessed. RESULTS Clinical and pathological response were associated with longer overall survival (OS; p < 0.001). No significant differences regarding response or OS were found, but there was a trend toward better outcome in group D (taxane-containing triplet). In the subgroup of 669 patients with adenocarcinomas of the esophagogastric junction (AEG), patients who had received taxane-containing regimens had a significantly longer OS (p = 0.037), but taxane use was not an independent factor in multivariate analysis. Triple therapy with taxanes did not result in a higher complication rate or postoperative mortality. CONCLUSIONS Although no superior neoadjuvant chemotherapy regimen was identified for patients with esophagogastric adenocarcinoma, taxane-containing regimens should be further investigated in randomized trials, especially in patients with AEG tumors.

Does Trauma Impair Self-Control? Differences in Delaying Gratification Between Former Indentured Child Laborers and Nontraumatized Controls.

Traumatic experiences may affect an individual's ability to exercise self-control, which is an essential characteristic for successfully managing life. As a measure of self-control, we used the delay discounting paradigm, that is, the extent to which a person devalues delayed gratification. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between childhood trauma and delay discounting using a control group design with elderly participants with a mean age of 76.2 years. Swiss former indentured child laborers (n=103) who had been exposed to trauma during their childhood were compared with nontraumatized controls (n=50). The trauma exposure group showed a considerably higher preference for immediate smaller rewards than the controls, indicating their lower self-control. A hierarchical regression analysis revealed that a history of abuse, current self-efficacy, and education were significantly associated with delay discounting. Implications for future research are discussed.

T- and B-cell responses and previous exposure to hepatitis B virus in 'anti-HBc alone' patients.

A serologic response to hepatitis B virus (HBV) defined as 'anti-HBc alone' is commonly observed, but its significance remains unclear. This study aimed to define the relationship between 'anti-HBc alone' serostatus and HBV infection, including HBV-specific T- and B-cell memory responses. We enrolled 31 'anti-HBc alone' patients. Total HBV DNA and cccDNA were tested by nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis in liver samples from 22 'anti-HBc alone' patients vs controls (chronic or resolved HBV infection), followed by HBsAg/HBcAg immunohistochemical (IHC) staining. IFN-γ secretion by HBV-specific T cells was compared in individuals who were 'anti-HBc alone' (n = 27), resolved HBV (n = 21), chronic HBV (n = 24) and 12 healthy controls using enzyme-linked immunospot (ELISpot) assays. An HBsAg-IgG B-cell ELISpot assay was performed in 'anti-HBc alone' patients before and after one dose of recombinant HBsAg vaccine. The majority (23/31, 74.2%) of the 'anti-HBc alone' individuals were co-infected with HCV. Infrequent intrahepatic total HBV DNA (2/22, 9.1%) and cccDNA (1/22, 4.5%) were detected in biopsies; HBsAg and HBcAg IHC staining was negative. HBV-specific T-cell responses were similar between 'anti-HBc alone' individuals and HBV resolvers. Circulating HBV-memory B-cell responses were detected in all 'anti-HBc alone' individuals, consistent with an HBsAg-specific memory pool. After one HBV vaccine dose, increased anti-HBs antibody levels were observed, accompanied by an expansion of HBsAg-specific memory B cells (P = 0.0226). 'Anti-HBc alone' individuals showed HBV-specific T-cell and memory B-cell responses typical of previous viral exposure and protective memory, suggesting a resolved infection.

A Comparison of Radiocolloid and Indocyanine Green Fluorescence Imaging, Sentinel Lymph Node Mapping in Patients with Cervical Cancer Undergoing Laparoscopic Surgery.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE (99)TC combined with blue-dye mapping is considered the best sentinel lymph node (SLN) mapping technique in cervical cancer. Indocyanine green (ICG) with near infrared fluorescence imaging has been introduced as a new methodology for SLN mapping. The aim of this study was to compare these two techniques in the laparoscopic treatment of cervical cancer. METHODS Medical records of patients undergoing laparoscopic SLN mapping for cervical cancer with either (99)Tc and patent blue dye (Group 1) or ICG (Group 2) from April 2008 until August 2012 were reviewed. Sensitivity, specificity, and overall and bilateral detection rates were calculated and compared. RESULTS Fifty-eight patients were included in the study-36 patients in Group 1 and 22 patients in Group 2. Median tumor diameter was 25 and 29 mm, and mean SLN count was 2.1 and 3.7, for Groups 1 and 2, respectively. Mean non-SLN (NSLN) count was 39 for both groups. SLNs were ninefold more likely to be affected by metastatic disease compared with NSLNs (p < 0.005). Sensitivity and specificity were both 100 %. Overall detection rates were 83 and 95.5 % (p = nonsignificant), and bilateral detection rates were 61 and 95.5 % (p < 0.005), for Groups 1 and 2, respectively. In 75 % of cases, SLNs were located along the external or internal iliac nodal basins. CONCLUSIONS ICG SLN mapping in cervical cancer provides high overall and bilateral detection rates that compare favorably with the current standard of care.

Doppler Ultrasound Flow Evaluation of the Uterine Arteries Significantly Correlates with Tumor Size in Cervical Cancer Patients.

PURPOSE The aim of this present study was to evaluate the sonographic correlation between Doppler flow characteristics of the uterine arteries and tumor size in patients with cervical cancer, in order to establish a new potential marker to monitor treatment response. METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study of 25 patients who underwent a sonographic evaluation of Doppler flow characteristics of the uterine arteries before surgery or radiochemotherapy for early and locally advanced/advanced cervical cancer, respectively, was analyzed. The primary outcome was the correlation between Doppler flow characteristics of the uterine arteries and tumor size in patients with cervical cancer. RESULTS Median age was 49 (range 26-85) years, and mean tumor size was 40.8 ± 17 mm. A significant positive correlation was found between tumor diameter and the uterine artery end-diastolic velocity (r = 0.47, p < 0.05) as well as the peak systolic velocity (r = 0.41, p < 0.05). No correlation was found between tumor size and the pulsatility index or resistance index. CONCLUSIONS In cervical cancer, uterine artery velocity parameters are associated with tumor size. This finding could become particularly useful in the follow-up of locally advanced cervical cancer patients undergoing radiochemotherapy or in corroborating the selection of women with more possibility of a high response rate during neoadjuvant chemotherapy before surgery.

When Does Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Really Avoid Radiotherapy? Clinical Predictors of Adjuvant Radiotherapy in Cervical Cancer.

BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to identify clinical variables that may predict the need for adjuvant radiotherapy after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) and radical surgery in locally advanced cervical cancer patients. METHODS A retrospective series of cervical cancer patients with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stages IB2-IIB treated with NACT followed by radical surgery was analyzed. Clinical predictors of persistence of intermediate- and/or high-risk factors at final pathological analysis were investigated. Statistical analysis was performed using univariate and multivariate analysis and using a model based on artificial intelligence known as artificial neuronal network (ANN) analysis. RESULTS Overall, 101 patients were available for the analyses. Fifty-two (51 %) patients were considered at high risk secondary to parametrial, resection margin and/or lymph node involvement. When disease was confined to the cervix, four (4 %) patients were considered at intermediate risk. At univariate analysis, FIGO grade 3, stage IIB disease at diagnosis and the presence of enlarged nodes before NACT predicted the presence of intermediate- and/or high-risk factors at final pathological analysis. At multivariate analysis, only FIGO grade 3 and tumor diameter maintained statistical significance. The specificity of ANN models in evaluating predictive variables was slightly superior to conventional multivariable models. CONCLUSIONS FIGO grade, stage, tumor diameter, and histology are associated with persistence of pathological intermediate- and/or high-risk factors after NACT and radical surgery. This information is useful in counseling patients at the time of treatment planning with regard to the probability of being subjected to pelvic radiotherapy after completion of the initially planned treatment.

Surgical Treatment of Recurrent Endometrial Cancer: Time for a Paradigm Shift.

BACKGROUND Although surgery represents the cornerstone treatment of endometrial cancer at initial diagnosis, scarce data are available in recurrent setting. The purpose of this study was to review the outcome of surgery in these patients. METHODS Medical records of all patients undergoing surgery for recurrent endometrial cancer at NCI Milano between January 2003 and January 2014 were reviewed. Survival was determined from the time of surgery for recurrence to last follow-up. Survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier methods. Differences in survival were analyzed using the log-rank test. The Fisher's exact test was used to compare optimal versus suboptimal cytoreduction against possible predictive factors. RESULTS Sixty-four patients were identified. Median age was 66 years. Recurrences were multiple in 38 % of the cases. Optimal cytoreduction was achieved in 65.6 %. Median OR time was 165 min, median postoperative hemoglobin drop was 2.4 g/dl, and median length hospital stay was 5.5 days. Eleven patients developed postoperative complications, but only four required surgical management. Estimated 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) was 42 and 19 % in optimally and suboptimally cytoreduced patients, respectively. At multivariate analysis, only residual disease was associated with PFS. Estimated 5-year overall survival (OS) was 60 and 30 % in optimally and suboptimally cytoreduced patients, respectively. At multivariate analysis, residual disease and histotype were associated with OS. At multivariate analysis, only performance status was associated with optimal cytoreduction. CONCLUSIONS Secondary cytoreduction in endometrial cancer is associated with long PFS and OS. The only factors associated with improved long-term outcome are the absence of residual disease at the end of surgical resection and histotype.

Post-mortem CT and MR brain imaging of putrefied corpses

INTRODUCTION Putrefaction of the brain is a challenge to a forensic pathologist because it may lead to considerable organ alterations and restrict documenting reliable autopsy findings. OBJECTIVES This study aims to present a new and systematic evaluation of possible benefits of post-mortem MR Neuroimaging (1.5 Tesla, sequences: T1w, T2w) in putrefied corpses in comparison to PMCT and autopsy. METHODS A post-mortem MRI brain examination was conducted on 35 adult, putrefied corpses after performing a whole body CT scan prior to a forensic autopsy. Imaging data and autopsy findings were compared with regard to brain symmetry, gray and white matter junction, ventricular system, basal ganglia, cerebellum, brain stem, and possible pathological findings. RESULTS At autopsy, a reliable assessment of the anatomical brain structures was often restricted. MR imaging offered an assessment of the anatomical brain structures, even at advanced stages of putrefaction. In two cases, MR imaging revealed pathological findings that were detectable neither by CT scans nor at autopsy. CONCLUSIONS Post-mortem MR imaging of putrefied brains offers the possibility to assess brain morphology, even if the brain is liquefied. Post-mortem MR imaging of the brain should be considered if the assessment of a putrefied brain is crucial to the evaluation of a forensic autopsy case.