365 resultados para Prospective econometrics


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Prospective memory (ProM) is the ability to remember and perform an intention in the future. If a prospective memory task is to be performed only once, it is episodic. If it is repeated, then it becomes habitual. Thus, with repetition, a task changes from episodic to habitual. The goal of this study was to investigate the transition from episodic to habitual prospective memory with event-related potentials (ERP). The ProM task was to respond to a target word which was embedded in an ongoing lexical decision task. 40 ProM trials were administered in each of two sessions that were separated by a week. The results revealed a behavioural consolidation effect with increased ProM performance after one week. The ERP-analyses showed that when the task became more habitual a difference occurred in a time-window between 450-650 ms post-stimulus in an ERP-component. In addition, a covariance analysis revealed that this transition is continued in the second session. These results demonstrate that the transition from episodic to habitual prospective memory is long-lasting and continuous.

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This study investigated the empirical differentiation of prospective memory, executive functions, and metacognition and their structural relationships in 119 elementary school children (M = 95 months, SD = 4.8 months). These cognitive abilities share many characteristics on the theoretical level and are all highly relevant in many everyday contexts when intentions must be executed. Nevertheless, their empirical relationships have not been examined on the latent level, although an empirical approach would contribute to our knowledge concerning the differentiation of cognitive abilities during childhood. We administered a computerized event-based prospective memory task, three executive function tasks (updating, inhibition, shifting), and a metacognitive control task in the context of spelling. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed that the three cognitive abilities are already empirically differentiable in young elementary school children. At the same time, prospective memory and executive functions were found to be strongly related, and there was also a close link between prospective memory and metacognitive control. Furthermore, executive functions and metacognitive control were marginally significantly related. The findings are discussed within a framework of developmental differentiation and conceptual similarities and differences.

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QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Patient characteristics and risk factors for death of Swiss trauma patients in the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN). METHODS: Descriptive analysis of trauma patients (≥16 years) admitted to a level I trauma centre in Switzerland (September 1, 2009 to August 31, 2010) and entered into TARN. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Of 458 patients 71% were male. The median age was 50.5 years (inter-quartile range [IQR] 32.2-67.7), median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 14 (IQR 9-20) and median Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) was 15 (IQR 14-15). The ISS was >15 for 47%, and 14% had an ISS >25. A total of 17 patients (3.7%) died within 30 days of trauma. All deaths were in patients with ISS >15. Most injuries were due to falls <2 m (35%) or road traffic accidents (29%). Injuries to the head (39%) were followed by injuries to the lower limbs (33%), spine (28%) and chest (27%). The time of admission peaked between 12:00 and 22:00, with a second peak between 00:00 and 02:00. A total of 64% of patients were admitted directly to our trauma centre. The median time to CT was 30 min (IQR 18-54 min). Using multivariable regression analysis, the predictors of mortality were older age, higher ISS and lower GCS. CONCLUSIONS: Characteristics of Swiss trauma patients derived from TARN were described for the first time, providing a detailed overview of the institutional trauma population. Based on these results, patient management and hospital resources (e.g. triage of patients, time to CT, staffing during night shifts) could be evaluated as a further step.

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The current study was designed to test for the effect of lateralized attention on prospective memory performance in a dichotic listening task. The practice phase of the experiment consisted of a semantic decision task during which the participants were presented with different words on either side via headphones. Depending on the experimental condition the participants were required to focus on the words presented on the left or right side and to decide if these words were abstract or concrete. Thereafter, the participants were informed about the prospective memory task. They were instructed to press a distinct key whenever they hear a word which denotes an animal in the same task later during the experiment. The participants were explicitly informed that the prospective memory cues could appear on either side of the headphones. This was followed by a retention interval which was filled with unrelated tasks. Next, the participants performed the prospective memory task. The results revealed more prospective hits for the attended side. The finding suggests that noticing a prospective memory cue is not an automatic process but requires attention.

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Succeeding in everyday activities often requires executive functioning (EF), metacognitive abilities (MC) and memory skills such as prospective memory (PM) and retrospective memory (RM). These cognitive abilities seem to gradually develop in childhood, possibly influencing each other during development. From a theoretical point of view, it is likely that they are closely interrelated, especially in children. Their empirical relation, however, is less clear. A model that links these cognitive abilities can help to better understand the relation between PM and RM and other cognitive processes. In this project we studied the longitudinal development of PM, RM, EF, and MC in 7-8 year old elementary school children across half a year. 119 second graders (MT1 = 95 months, SDT1, = 4.8 months) completed the same PM, RM, EF and MC tasks twice with a time-lag of 7 months. The developmental progression was analysed using paired t-tests, the longitudinal relationships were analysed using confirmatory factor analysis and all fit indices are in accordance with Hu and Bentler (1998). In general, performance improved significantly (ps < .001) and effect sizes ranged from .45 to .62 (Cohen’s d). CFA revealed a good model fit, c2(227, 119) = 242.56, p = .23, TLI = .973, CFI = .979, RMSEA = .024. At T1, significant cross-sectional links were found between PM T1 and RM T1, between PM T1 and EF T1, and between EF T1 and MC T1. Moreover, significant longitudinal links were found between EFT1 and PMT2 and between EFT1 and MCT2; EF T1 and RM T2 were marginally linked. Results underline previous findings showing that PM, RM, EF, and MC develop significantly during childhood, even within this short time period. Results also indicate that these cognitive abilities are linked not only cross-sectionally, but longitudinally. Most relevant, however, is the predictive role of EF for both metacognition and memory.

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Prospective Memory (PM), executive functions (EF) and metacognition (MC) are relevant cognitive abilities for everyday functioning. They all seem to develop gradually in childhood and appear to be theoretically closely related; however, their empirical links remain unclear, especially in children. As a recent study revealed significant cross-sectional links between PM and EF, and a weaker but close link between PM and MC in 2nd graders (Spiess, Meier, & Roebers, submitted), this study focused on their short-term relationships and on their development. 119 children (MT1 =95 months, SDT1, = 4.8 months) completed the same tasks (one PM, three EF, one MC task) twice with a time-lag of 7 months. T-tests showed significant improvements in all tasks, except in the updating task. Different structural equation models were contrasted (AMOS); the best fitting model revealed that PMT2 was similarly predicted by PMT1 (r = .33) and EFT1 (r = .34). Additionally, EFT1 predicted MCT2 (r = .44), chi2(118, 119) = 128.91, p = .23, TLI = .968, CFI = .978, RMSEA = .028. Results show that PM, EF, and MC develop during childhood and also demonstrate that they are linked not only cross-sectionally, but longitudinally. Findings are discussed in a broader developmental framework.

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BACKGROUND High early mortality in patients with HIV-1 starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to Europe and North America, is well documented. Longer-term comparisons between settings have been limited by poor ascertainment of mortality in high burden African settings. This study aimed to compare mortality up to four years on ART between South Africa, Europe, and North America. METHODS AND FINDINGS Data from four South African cohorts in which patients lost to follow-up (LTF) could be linked to the national population register to determine vital status were combined with data from Europe and North America. Cumulative mortality, crude and adjusted (for characteristics at ART initiation) mortality rate ratios (relative to South Africa), and predicted mortality rates were described by region at 0-3, 3-6, 6-12, 12-24, and 24-48 months on ART for the period 2001-2010. Of the adults included (30,467 [South Africa], 29,727 [Europe], and 7,160 [North America]), 20,306 (67%), 9,961 (34%), and 824 (12%) were women. Patients began treatment with markedly more advanced disease in South Africa (median CD4 count 102, 213, and 172 cells/µl in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively). High early mortality after starting ART in South Africa occurred mainly in patients starting ART with CD4 count <50 cells/µl. Cumulative mortality at 4 years was 16.6%, 4.7%, and 15.3% in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively. Mortality was initially much lower in Europe and North America than South Africa, but the differences were reduced or reversed (North America) at longer durations on ART (adjusted rate ratios 0.46, 95% CI 0.37-0.58, and 1.62, 95% CI 1.27-2.05 between 24 and 48 months on ART comparing Europe and North America to South Africa). While bias due to under-ascertainment of mortality was minimised through death registry linkage, residual bias could still be present due to differing approaches to and frequency of linkage. CONCLUSIONS After accounting for under-ascertainment of mortality, with increasing duration on ART, the mortality rate on HIV treatment in South Africa declines to levels comparable to or below those described in participating North American cohorts, while substantially narrowing the differential with the European cohorts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

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BACKGROUND The main goals of the standard treatment for advanced symptomatic knee osteoarthritis, total knee arthroplasty (TKA), are pain reduction and restoration of knee motion.The aim of this study was to analyse the outcome of the patient-based Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS), and the surgeon-based Knee Society Score (KSS) and its Knee Score (KS) and Knee Functional Score (KFS) components after (TKA) using the Journey knee prosthesis, and to assess the correlation of these scores with range of motion (ROM). METHODS In a prospective case series study between August 1st 2008 and May 31st 2011, 99 patients, all operated by a single surgeon, received Journey bicruciate stabilized total knee prostheses. The female/male ratio was 53/34, the mean patient age at surgery was 68 years (range 41-83 years), and the left/right knee ratio was 55/44. The KOOS, range of motion, and KS and KFS were obtained preoperatively and at 1-year follow-up. The pre- and postoperative levels of the outcome measures were compared using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Correlation between ROM and patient outcomes was analysed with the Spearman coefficient. RESULTS All KOOS subscores improved significantly. Ninety percent of patients improved by at least the minimum clinically relevant difference of 10 points in stiffness and other symptoms, 94.5% in pain, 94.5% in activities of daily living, 84.9% in sports and recreation, and 90% in knee-related quality of life. The mean passive and active ROM improved from 122.4° (range 90-145°) and 120.4° (range 80-145°) preoperatively to 129.4° (range 90-145°) and 127.1° (range 100-145°) postoperatively. The highest correlation coefficients for ROM and KOOS were observed for the activity and pain subscores. Very low or no correlation was seen for the sport subscore.There was a significant and clinically relevant improvement of KSS (preop/postop 112.2/174.5 points), and its KS (preop/postop 45.6/86.8 points) and KFS (preop/postop 66.6/87.8 points) components. CONCLUSIONS The Journey bicruciate stabilized knee prosthesis showed good 1-year postoperative results in terms of both functional and patient-based outcome. However, higher knee ROM correlates only moderately with patient-based outcome, implying that functionality afforded by the Journey bicruciate TKA is not equivalent to patient satisfaction.

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INTRODUCTION Optimising the use of blood has become a core task of transfusion medicine. Because no general guidelines are available in Switzerland, we analysed the effects of the introduction of a guideline on red blood cell (RBC) transfusion for elective orthopaedic surgery. METHODS Prospective, multicentre, before-and-after study comparing the use of RBCs in adult elective hip or knee replacement before and after the implementation of a guideline in 10 Swiss hospitals, developed together with all participants. RESULTS We included 2,134 patients, 1,238 in 7 months before, 896 in 6 months after intervention. 57 (34 or 2.7% before, 23 or 2.6% after) were lost before follow-up visit. The mean number of transfused RBC units decreased from 0.5 to 0.4 per patient (0.1, 95% CI 0.08-0.2; p = 0.014), the proportion of transfused patients from 20.9% to 16.9% (4%, 95% C.I. 0.7-7.4%; p = 0.02), and the pre-transfusion haemoglobin from 82.6 to 78.2 g/l (4.4 g/l, 95% C. I. 2.15-6.62 g/l, p < 0.001). We did not observe any statistically significant changes in in-hospital mortality (0.4% vs. 0%) and morbidity (4.1% vs. 4.0%), median hospital length of stay (9 vs. 9 days), follow-up mortality (0.4% vs. 0.2%) and follow-up morbidity (6.9% vs. 6.0%). CONCLUSIONS The introduction of a simple transfusion guideline reduces and standardises the use of RBCs by decreasing the haemoglobin transfusion trigger, without negative effects on the patient outcome. Local support, training, and monitoring of the effects are requirements for programmes optimising the use of blood.