Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

The presented approach describes a model for a rule-based expert system calculating the temporal variability of the release of wet snow avalanches, using the assumption of avalanche triggering without the loading of new snow. The knowledge base of the model is created by using investigations on the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches in the Italian Ortles Alps, and is represented by a fuzzy logic rule-base. Input parameters of the expert system are numerical and linguistic variables, measurable meteorological and topographical factors and observable characteristics of the snow cover. Output of the inference method is the quantified release disposition for wet snow avalanches. Combining topographical parameters and the spatial interpolation of the calculated release disposition a hazard index map is dynamically generated. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variability of damage potential on roads exposed to wet snow avalanches can be quantified, expressed by the number of persons at risk. The application of the rule base to the available data in the study area generated plausible results. The study demonstrates the potential for the application of expert systems and fuzzy logic in the field of natural hazard monitoring and risk management.

Avalanche related damage potential - changes of persons and mobile values since the mid-twentieth century, case study Galtür

When determining risk related to natural hazard processes, many studies neglect the investigations of the damage potential or are limited to the assessment of immobile values like buildings. However, persons as well as mobile values form an essential part of the damage potential. Knowledge of the maximum number of exposed persons in an endangered area is of great importance for elaborating evacuation plans and immediate measures in case of catastrophes. In addition, motor vehicles can also be highly damaged, as was shown by the analysis of avalanche events. With the removal of mobile values in time as a preventive measure this kind of damage can be minimised. This study presents a method for recording the maximum number of exposed persons and monetarily assessing motor vehicles in the municipality of Galt¨ur (Tyrol, Austria). Moreover, general developments of the damage potential due to significant socio-economic changes since the mid-twentieth century are pointed out in the study area. The present situation of the maximum number of persons and mobile values in the official avalanche hazard zones of the municipality is described in detail. Information on the number of persons is derived of census data, tourism and employment statistics. During the winter months, a significant increase overlaid by strong short-term fluctuation in the number of persons can be noted. These changes result from a higher demand of tourism related manpower as well as from varying occupancy rates. The number of motor vehicles in endangered areas is closely associated to the number of exposed persons. The potential number of motor vehicles is investigated by means of mapping, statistics on the stock of motor vehicles and the density distribution. Diurnal and seasonal fluctuations of the investigated damage potential are pointed out. The recording of the number of persons and mobile values in endangered areas is vital for any disaster management.

Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

Motive-oriented therapeutic relationship building for patients diagnosed with schizophrenia

Treatment options for patients with schizophrenia demand further improvement. One way to achieve this improvement is the translation of findings from basic research into new specific interventions. Beyond that, addressing the therapy relationship has the potential to enhance both pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments. This paper introduces motive-oriented therapeutic relationship (MOTR) building for schizophrenia. MOTR enables therapists to proactively adapt to their patient’s needs and to prevent problematic behaviors. For example, a patient might consider medication as helpful in principle, but the rejection of medication might be one of his few remaining means for his acceptable motive to stay autonomous despite hospitalization. A therapist who is motiveoriented proactively offers many degrees of freedom to this patient in order to satisfy his need for autonomy and to weaken the motivational basis for not taking medication. MOTR makes use of findings from basic and psychotherapy research and is generic in this respect, but at the same time guides therapeutic action precisely and flexibly in a patient oriented way.

Economic benefits and costs of Sustainable Land Management Technologies: An analysis of WOCAT's global data

Perceived profitability is a key factor in explaining farmers' decision to adopt or not adopt sustainable land management (SLM) technologies. Despite this importance, relatively little is known about the economics of SLM. This paper contributes to the literature by analysing data on costs and perceived cost/benefit ratios of SLM technologies. Data are taken from the World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies technology database and cover 363 case studies conducted in a variety of countries between 1990 and 2012. Based on an in-depth descriptive analysis, we determine what costs accrue to local stakeholders and assess perceived short-term and long-term cost/benefit ratios. Our results show that a large majority of the technologies in our sample are perceived as being profitable: 73% were perceived to have a positive or at least neutral cost/benefit ratio in the short term, while 97% were perceived to have a positive or very positive cost/benefit ratio in the long term. An additional empirical analysis confirms that economic factors are key determinants of land users' decisions to adopt or not adopt SLM technologies. We conclude that a wide range of existing SLM practices generate considerable benefits not only for land users, but for other stakeholders as well. High initial investment costs associated with some practices may, however, constitute a barrier to their adoption; short-term support for land users can help to promote these practices where appropriate.

Attributing trends in extremely hot days to changes in atmospheric dynamics

This paper presents a method for attributing regional trends in the frequency of extremely hot days (EHDs) to changes in the frequency of the atmospheric patterns that characterize such extraordinary events. The study is applied to mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands for the extended summers of the period 1958–2008, where significant and positive trends in maximum temperature (Tx) have been reported during the second half of the past century. First, the study area was split into eight regions attending to their different temporal variability of the daily Tx series obtained from the Spain02 gridded data set using a clustering procedure. Second, the large-scale atmospheric situations causing EHDs are defined by circulation types (CTs). The obtainment of the CTs differs from the majority of CT classifications proposed in the literature. It is based on regional series and on a previous characterization of the main atmospheric situations obtained using only some days classified as extremes in the different regions. Three different atmospheric fields (SLP, T850, and Z500) from ECMWF reanalysis and analysis data and combinations of them (SLP–T850, SLP–Z500, and T850–Z500) are used to produce six different CT classifications. Subsequently, links between EHD occurrence in the different regions and CT for all days have been established. Finally, a simple model to relate the trends in EHDsfor each region to the changes in the CT frequency appearance has been formulated. Most regions present positive and significant trends in the occurrence of EHDs. The CT classifications using two variables perform better. In particular, SLP–T850 is the best for characterizing the atmospheric situations leading to EHD occurrences for most of the regions. Only a small number of CTs have significant trends in their frequency and are associated with high efficiency causing EHD occurrences in most regions simultaneously, especially in the northern and central regions. Attribution results show that changes in circulation can only explain some part of the regional EHD trends. The percentage of the trend attributable to changes in atmospheric dynamics varies from 15 to 50 %, depends on the region and is sensitive to the selected large-scale variables.

Are suicide attempters wired differently?

Objective: Limited research exists on internal risk processes in suicide attempters and factors that distinguish them from non-suicidal, depressive individuals. In this qualitative study, we investigated Plans, motives, and underlying self-regulatory processes of the two groups and conducted a comparative analysis. Methods: We analyzed narrative interviews of 17 suicide attempters and intake interviews of 17 non-suicidal, depressive patients using Plan Analysis. Then, we developed a prototypical Plan structure for both groups. Results: Suicidal behavior serves various Plans only found in suicide attempters. Plans of this group are especially related to social perfectionism and withdrawal in order to protect their self-esteem. Depressive patients employ several interpersonal control and coping strategies, which might help prevent suicidal behavior. Conclusion: The prototypical Plan structure of suicide attempters may be a valuable tool for clinicians to detect critical Plans and motives in their interaction with patients, which are related to suicide risk.

Humanitarian intervention and the issue of state sovereignty in the discourse of legal experts between the 1830s and the First World War

This article discusses the tensions between the principle of state sovereignty and the idea of a "humanitarian intervention" (or a intervention on humanitarian grounds) as they resulted from the debate of leading legal scholars in the 19th and early 20th century. While prominent scholars such as Johann Caspar Bluntschli, Gustave Rolin Jaequemyns or Aegidius Arntz spoke out in favour of a form of "humanitarian interventions", others such as August Wilhelm Heffter or Pasquale Fiore were much more critical and in many cases spoke out in favour of absolute state sovereignty.

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy and extrapleural pneumonectomy of malignant pleural mesothelioma with or without hemithoracic radiotherapy (SAKK 17/04): a randomised, international, multicentre phase 2 trial

BACKGROUND Postoperative hemithoracic radiotherapy has been used to treat malignant pleural mesothelioma, but it has not been assessed in a randomised trial. We assessed high-dose hemithoracic radiotherapy after neoadjuvant chemotherapy and extrapleural pneumonectomy in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma. METHODS We did this phase 2 trial in two parts at 14 hospitals in Switzerland, Belgium, and Germany. We enrolled patients with pathologically confirmed malignant pleural mesothelioma; resectable TNM stages T1-3 N0-2, M0; WHO performance status 0-1; age 18-70 years. In part 1, patients were given three cycles of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (cisplatin 75 mg/m(2) and pemetrexed 500 mg/m(2) on day 1 given every 3 weeks) and extrapleural pneumonectomy; the primary endpoint was complete macroscopic resection (R0-1). In part 2, participants with complete macroscopic resection were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive high-dose radiotherapy or not. The target volume for radiotherapy encompassed the entire hemithorax, the thoracotomy channel, and mediastinal nodal stations if affected by the disease or violated surgically. A boost was given to areas at high risk for locoregional relapse. The allocation was stratified by centre, histology (sarcomatoid vs epithelioid or mixed), mediastinal lymph node involvement (N0-1 vs N2), and T stage (T1-2 vs T3). The primary endpoint of part 1 was the proportion of patients achieving complete macroscopic resection (R0 and R1). The primary endpoint in part 2 was locoregional relapse-free survival, analysed by intention to treat. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00334594. FINDINGS We enrolled patients between Dec 7, 2005, and Oct 17, 2012. Overall, we analysed 151 patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy, of whom 113 (75%) had extrapleural pneumonectomy. Median follow-up was 54·2 months (IQR 32-66). 52 (34%) of 151 patients achieved an objective response. The most common grade 3 or 4 toxic effects were neutropenia (21 [14%] of 151 patients), anaemia (11 [7%]), and nausea or vomiting (eight [5%]). 113 patients had extrapleural pneumonectomy, with complete macroscopic resection achieved in 96 (64%) of 151 patients. We enrolled 54 patients in part 2; 27 in each group. The main reasons for exclusion were patient refusal (n=20) and ineligibility (n=10). 25 of 27 patients completed radiotherapy. Median total radiotherapy dose was 55·9 Gy (IQR 46·8-56·0). Median locoregional relapse-free survival from surgery, was 7·6 months (95% CI 4·5-10·7) in the no radiotherapy group and 9·4 months (6·5-11·9) in the radiotherapy group. The most common grade 3 or higher toxic effects related to radiotherapy were nausea or vomiting (three [11%] of 27 patients), oesophagitis (two [7%]), and pneumonitis (two [7%]). One patient died of pneumonitis. We recorded no toxic effects data for the control group. INTERPRETATION Our findings do not support the routine use of hemithoracic radiotherapy for malignant pleural mesothelioma after neoadjuvant chemotherapy and extrapleural pneumonectomy. FUNDING Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research, Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation, Eli Lilly.

Dynamics of dissipative Bose-Einstein condensation

We resolve the real-time dynamics of a purely dissipative s=1/2 quantum spin or, equivalently, hard-core boson model on a hypercubic d-dimensional lattice. The considered quantum dissipative process drives the system to a totally symmetric macroscopic superposition in each of the S3 sectors. Different characteristic time scales are identified for the dynamics and we determine their finite-size scaling. We introduce the concept of cumulative entanglement distribution to quantify multiparticle entanglement and show that the considered protocol serves as an efficient method to prepare a macroscopically entangled Bose-Einstein condensate.