An Assessment of Trends in the Extent of Swidden in Southeast Asia

Swidden systems consisting of temporarily cultivated land and associated fallows often do not appear on land use maps or in statistical records. This is partly due to the fact that swidden is a diverse and dynamic land use system that is difficult to map and partly because of the practice of grouping land covers associated with swidden systems into land use or land cover categories that are not self-evidently linked to swiddening. Additionally, in many parts of Southeast Asia swidden systems have changed or are in the process of changing into other land use systems. This paper assesses the extent of swidden on the basis of regional and national sources for nine countries, and determines the pattern of changes of swidden on the basis of 151 cases culled from 67 articles. Findings include (1) a majority of the cases document swidden being replaced by other forms of agriculture or by other livelihood systems; (2) in cases where swiddening is still practiced, fallow lengths are usually, but not always, shorter; and (3) shortened fallow length does not necessarily indicate a trend away from swidden since it is observed that short fallow swidden is sometimes maintained along with other more intensive farming practices and not completely abandoned. The paper concludes that there is a surprising lack of conclusive data on the extent of swidden in Southeast Asia. In order to remedy this, methods are reviewed that may lead to more precise future assessments.

Impact of unlinked deaths and coding changes on mortality trends in the Swiss National Cohort

BACKGROUND Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC). METHODS The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons) and 2000 (7.3 million persons) censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991-2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules) to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. RESULTS SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4%-17.9%) in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75-84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between -1.4% and +1.8%). In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12%-28%) and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7%-23%) cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy. CONCLUSIONS Unlinked deaths bias analyses of absolute mortality rates downwards but have little effect on relative mortality. To describe time trends of cause-specific mortality in the SNC, accounting for the unlinked deaths and for the possible effect of change in death certificate coding was necessary.